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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Honestly I think Poland/ Baltic escalation scenario is nearly as abhorrent and disastrous as a Russian nuclear escalation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 170 ✭✭WheelieKing


    We've been hearing about Russia running out of equipment for over a year now and here we are. Just take everything you hear and read with a massive pinch of salt. Only events on the ground are a true reflection of how the battle is going not some no mark on Twitter or even American intelligence who obviously have skin in the game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Now but the cost of the war and keeping ukraine supplied with ammunition very much expensive, look at the situation here 85,000 + 30,000 Ukrainians/others living in hotels and other accomodations across the country,that could have a knock on effect for our tourism which will effect bob down the road if his family rely on incomes from the tourism sector,the same applies to over stretched services already at breaking point,

    It does effect others despite us not having tanks or weapons to send



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,397 ✭✭✭Addmagnet


    Let's say there's a Hollywood sci-fi blockbuster moment and you wake up one morning with the world unchanged in all but one respect: instead of the UK being over the border in Northern Ireland it's now Russia. Russia exactly as she is here in our world now, same people, same president, same war currently raging with some other neighbour of theirs.

    That's what Poland and the Baltic states are living with, so I can have some empathy with their situation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,303 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Russia is running out of equipment. Obviously that doesn't literally mean that they will suddenly be "all out of tanks" one day. It means they have to increasingly rely on other equipment (e.g. Iranian drones), older tanks (T62's), foreign supplies (N Korea), out-dated equipment, and so on.

    They have their own manufacturing base, so they can e.g. keep manufacturing plenty of artillery shells, but other stuff can be more tricky, especially the more complex equipment and munitions that are difficult to manufacture and replace.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,569 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I'm half expecting to see the 203 mm howitzer M1931(B-4) at some stage

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,808 ✭✭✭threeball


    I think this is more likely to end the war than any weapons sent

    If theres one thing rich people can't stand, its being taxed and they'll do everything in their power to avoid it. Putin will back himself into a corner worse than the one from his famous rat analogy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,303 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Interview with the head of Rheinmetal, the German arms company with some interesting tidbits (needs to be translated)

    Can the EU promise to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of artillery ammunition within a year?

    Yes. In the short term, however, Ukraine will only get the one million rounds of artillery ammunition if European armies make stocks available. On the industrial side, we are working flat out to increase production capacities. We hire staff, make mothballed machines fit again, build new supply chains. However, it will take six to ten years before all European ammunition depots are filled.


    You are involved in the preparation and maintenance of many main battle and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. How do they fare in battle?

    Good! Feedback from Ukrainians on German weapons is very positive. Take the PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer, whose chassis and weapon systems were supplied by Rheinmetall. We actually say that the barrel needs to be changed after about 4500 shots. The Ukrainians, however, shoot up to 20,000 shots - actually impossible. Other pipes would have buckled long ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    I have full sympathy with Poland and the Baltic countries and I always use their example in arguments with guys who spout pro Russian rubbish. They know what Russia is like. They know full well the true nature of Russia as do Finland et al . They have felt the full brutal weight of Russian imperialism. Their struggle makes our own struggles against imperialism in Ireland look like a bun fight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    Hitting the elite is definitely a way to unsettle the horses around Putin unfortunately Putin has been able to keep a lot of the pain away from the better off in Moscow if that changed he could well be ousted .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden


    That would be 85,000 extra consumers, hence a higher economic benefit, plus all the extra Government money pumped into the economy which circulates and creates more tax revenue etc.

    Overtime the costs to the west are very low, while the costs to Russia are high, over time the Russian economy which remember is only 4.5 times that of Bangladesh, will get much poorer. Hence Putin's new taxes.

    Also the war has shown the need to stop outsourcing manufacturing of key tech, those jobs will come home to the EU and US aka more jobs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭wassie




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    You can apply the old Hemingway quote to Russian supplies.

    'How did you go bankrupt?'

    'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.'

    We are still in phase 1.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden


    "They say that they waited two hours in one place. As you might guess, the only things that arrived were HIMARS and artillery." 😂

    That's so stupid! Putin war is really showing us how awfully run is the Russian army.

    General takes selfie in full ceremonial gear and puts the hotel fire escape instructions centre of shot.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    So they are still talking about it but according to a few people the whole mighty Europen industrial sector was on a war footing and production had been massively increased here we are heading into July and still it's been Still talked about, with a big IF from Mr Rhemmeintal ,this was announced earlier in the new year,were now at the halfway point of the year and they are still discussing 1 million artillery shells this year ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭zv2


    That's what I'm thinking. Between burned out guns and destroyed guns how much are they left with? Supposedly Russia had 6000 tanks to begin with and almost 4000 have been destroyed. So...

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A million shells, even talked about is welcome but its 2700 shells a day.


    10 million a year that would be shell delivery for a more serious effort for Ukraine.


    18 months in and still talking about making plans for production, never mind implementation or deciding on options.


    Embarrassing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,217 ✭✭✭pcardin


    ruSSians always have regarded other nations as dumb idiots, always placed themselves above any other nation as something more superior, almost God like, only to show the whole world that perhaps there is nobody more dumb and retarded in the galaxy than ruSSians. Except from maybe kermit.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,235 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I think the blowing of the dams is certainly worth talking about in the sense of how reckless it is and what damage it will do to the local environment, local residents, and the utilities they provide, but I would have to think that the blowing of dams is among the primary things that the AFU would be budgeting for when planning this offensive when you consider what little regard Russian occupiers have shown for civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, be it power generation plants or hospitals.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You cannot dismiss it out of hand though.

    As the saying goes, soldiers win battles, economies win wars.


    Russia has been relying on 50 years worth of military stockpiles built up over the cold war. Those stocks, while vast are dwindling and there is a limit on how quickly they can be replaced, especially the more modern and harder to produce pieces.

    Take for example the 2S19 Msta-S.

    Russia had approx 760 in service before the war. No one knows if these are all even operational.

    Oryx says 123 have been destroyed or captured. This figure does not include the 5 that were taken out in the past 48 hours, so it could well be an undercount.

    Which begs the question, how many can Russia put in the field right now? Given the maintenance issues, definitely less than 500 and I am being generous.

    How many are Russia producing per year to make up the shortfall?

    For reference, the stockpile has been building up since 1989, so Russia had 35 years to get to that number.


    The point is, Russia might be in this for the long haul, but it simply lacks the industrial capacity to replace everything it is losing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭rogber


    This is what the cooler heads among us have been saying for the last 12 months, but the eternal fantasists (there are far fewer of them now than even 6 months ago) were still insisting the Russian defence would collapse like a deck of cards almost as soon as this offensive started and Crimea would be back in Ukrainian hands by high summer.

    It's early days yet but I don't think anyone could say things are looking great right now and the question about America's ultimate aim in the war is also a valid one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭thereitisgone


    I have had the exact same thoughts over the last week or two

    For me after last Autumn attack by the Ukrainians they were unstoppable

    But seeing them being bogged down was an eye opener

    But last few days started to think little differently, not because i think there still unstoppable, the Russians have definitely upped there game

    We still haven't seen the bulk of the Ukrainian advance forces

    Where are they

    No Challenger tanks and very few Bradleys actually in battle

    Wouldnt it be a crazy idea to send a few Leopards and Bradleys to attack somewhere, soon as Russians see Lepords they believe thats main attack is there

    Some military guys with a lot more knowledge than me believe the north should have been the place for the counter offensive

    Could this whole thing be a sideshow to the main thing

    I dont know but its strange there just using a small part of there force

    Think we will know a lot more in a week



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @thereitisgone

    Could this whole thing be a sideshow to the main thing

    This is what analysts seem to be saying - that the AFU is probing defensive lines for weaknesses before fully committing its armoured battalions. Is there not an entry in The Art of War about going around the enemy fortifications and getting in behind them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I don't think sending a few Bradleys and leopards was anything but a probe to see what they are going to face for the bigger objectives,but it could potentially have been a lot worse,they could have sent 20 + leopards and Bradleys and lost them at the first attempt, they have still only limited number of western armor despite the Americans already saying they will replace the 15 lost Bradlesy this will take weeks for them to be pulled from storage, completely checked over and serviced before being put on a boat which adds up to weeks to the replacement of anything on the battlefield,

    If they lose a similar number at every abandoned village which there is hundreds occupied by the Russians the counter offensive will be reduced to a very slow crawl.

    It was claimed on here Russian forces had already collapsed weeks ago if anything they got stronger



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,566 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Just to add to this, Ukraine just have to fight Russia, but Russia needs to keep troops in reserve to prop up ailing CTSO members and other allies, quell domestic disquiet and also to be prepared for the all out war with NATO that seems to be always going on, at least in their heads. They also need to be able to offer to supply smaller nations with materiel in order to keep hold of the idea that they are a world leader. They cant allow China to suddenly become the no.2 defense contractor in the world.

    So while Ukraine can and possibly will fight to the last bullet, Russia has to keep a lot in reserve. Its hard to see how they havent already passed this point, but for political (i.e. non military related) reasons cannot withdraw now.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,566 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Part of the problem is that, the current war aside, it is not clear that massive amounts of unguided ammunition will be required for NATOs future needs. NATO relies on superior ISR, air power and precision strikes. The prevailing theory before this was is that massive amounts of cheap artillery shells just simply wouldnt be needed. Even now, it is not clear that, in a hypothetical conventional war between NATO and Russia that NATO would use artillery to the same extent Ukraine are.

    So it makes no sense to ramp up production to several million rounds per year, at tremendous cost, when the requirement for same is not really needed.

    Put another way, NATO has committed over $1 trillion to the F35 and the US spent $20 billion on the now cancelled Zumwalt destroyer programme.

    At a cost of c. $500-$1,000 per dumb shell, if NATO really wanted them, they would have no problem making them. They just dont see the long term future in early cold war tech, is all.



This discussion has been closed.
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