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Potential Drought conditions?

2

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,163 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    How many times do we have to go through periods of drought before someone decides to start collecting some of extensive rainfall we get most of the year and use it for irrigation etc?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I used to have about 2 weeks of rain water in tank's (I do use a good bit in the garden) the last few years I've ran out on occasions, so this year I upgraded tanks to about 3 weeks of water for this year. and im out as of 3 days ago...I honestly don't remember have many issues over the previous 10 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,163 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    I guess every little helps though right? 3 weeks worth of water not coming from the main is still a really tidy backup to have :)

    It's just typical Ireland that 3-4 weeks of no rain and you're staring down the barrel of a hosepipe ban after months of deluges through winter and early spring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Talking to alot of gardeners they really at looking at different plants which handle the dry spels ..(never thought I'd hear that in Ireland) sorry to go off topic but this spring was amazing for plant growth :) some over night rain in the next week or so would add icing to the cake, thunder storm would be the cheery too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looked at Sligo 10 day forecast and it's over 20c the next 10 days. However a few models have Sunday cool while others have it 23c.

    We often get weather like this about 6 weeks earlier like in 2020 but this year its later so could get very hot later in the season.



  • Posts: 1,686 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Can you recall the last time we had a decent spill of rain in Cork? I haven't looked at the data but the verges are already brown and the grass is starting to turn. This deluge to drought pattern we are locked into is bonkers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It is. Its like the annual Yellowgrass festival now.

    Sometimes it's May sometimes it's June or July. That Atlantic conveyor seems quieter than normal these past few months. If El Nino doesn't awaken it later on in the year I'll be quite surprised but we may have to endure or enjoy quite a lot of dry weather before that considering what happened the High. Originally it was supposed to slip West and bring very cool weather for weeks but its lodged itself there and there's nothing to move it yet. Jet almost non existent this side of the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,032 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    Its great. 25 days now since a drop of rain here in North East Kildare. Have a paddling pool out for kids so when i empty it i use it to water grass and flowers. Not wasting a drop.

    I cant remember a spell like this. The good thing is it isnt too hot either. Just perfect really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 170 ✭✭WheelieKing


    No you aren't the only one but thankfully the majority thought it was a bad idea.



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  • Posts: 1,686 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think it's pretty clear, though, that the weather in your small corner of Ireland has been different to others, and very different to where I am. I first posted about exceptionally dry soil in my area (Cork City) over a week ago and we haven't had a drop since then and not expecting any more for another 10 days at least. The land is as dry as I've ever seen it this early in the year. I can't recall proper frontal rain here for about a month, as all the heavy showers at the start of last month and even the fronts seem to fizzle out or skirt around us.

    We had record rainfall this autumn and a relatively dry winter and spring (the washout that was March aside) but that doesn't have much bearing on the current indications that we are headed for a drought. Met Eireann already mentioning it in forecasts.

    Ireland is a small country but the weather can be exceptionally localised. I would say we'll be in drought conditions fairly soon in my area at least. The verges are already brown and the grass is yellowing, and this easterly sucks the moisture even more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A lot of dying grass beginning to appear now. 50mm SMD in Sligo id reckon. Think it was 90mm one year so that's the lowest I ever remember or is it when it gets to 70mm that's it. What was it in 1976? That's the brown year. And 2018 too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Is it not common knowledge how poor our water infrastructure is? It's definitely not a secret I would have thought.

    Our water network is old and we lose nearly 40% of our water daily through leaks (2022 figure), and that's the figure after huge investment into the network in recent years already. In terms of storage/reservoir capacity, I'm not overly familiar but from recent years, I'm assuming it's not super and any prolonged dry weather leaves us on the verge of issues. They are further investing billions into the system to reduce leakage to 25% by 2030, we're late to the game but they are starting the process of investing in it.

    Add prolonged dry weather AND our poor infrastructure together and it's why we are so quick to hear of hosepipe bans etc. There seems to be a lot of surprise every year at how drinking water/domestic water works and why it is so precarious here most of the time. You don't drink untreated rain water nor untreated water from rivers, so it matters not a jot what falls from the sky. If we can't treat it all then it's not available for domestic supply.


    It also wasn't a wet winter. Drier than normal at all Met Eireann stations. Exceptionally dry for many in February (from mid-January on basically). March was very wet, but you'd imagine a lot of that rain was absorbed by drying land and not as much run off to be collected in rivers etc. as the March total might suggest. I can't find history of the soil moisture deficits on the Met Eireann site to track them over winter into Spring to see how they were going. Did we ever reach actual soil saturation (-10mm)? And if we did, for how long? I'm also not able to follow the water levels websites to see how this has been the last few months. Either way, we really have not heard a lot from Irish Water lately so I'm guessing there's not a huge issue. As my previous post highlighted, different kind of droughts. I'm sure it's feasible to have climatological and agricultural drought without automatically running into hydrological drought.

    A lot of Ireland really is not that wet, at least where a large % of the people are. Outside of the Med, throw a dart at a map of Europe and Dublin and some other eastern coastal areas probably get less or similar to them. We just don't get the sun and warmth that makes wetter climates more palatable elsewhere. Somewhere like Albania or Montenegro gets far more rain than the East (or the West!), but you'd chose their summer every time if you like sun and heat. Yes the West/NW/SW is wetter by a decent chunk than the rest of the country, but as far as I'm aware we have no bountiful surplus of water. Lots of money still to be invested and we really need to improve reservoir capacity and get leak loss down to 15% or less. Dublin and the East are going to be bailed out in the coming times by the Shannon too as we won't be able to fulfil our own water needs due to the booming population.

    Echo the sentiments on rapidly improving rainwater harvesting to assist throughout the year and remove the reliance on potable water for everything. Peoples plants for example would only LOVE if they had lovely rainwater all year water instead of treated drinkable water. We've a lot of work to do, especially if we are heading into territory where long dry spells are going to be more common.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,806 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    You can throw in the ongoing failure to reign in water pollution from various sources



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,819 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,573 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    Certainly up here in the NW all our efforts are to get rid of water not to keep it so not surprising we run out after a couple of weeks of dry weather.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭esposito


    You just know that the rain is on its way from this weekend now that that article has been published 😆



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,063 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Soil moisture has now dropped to 14% at my station in Cobh. It was down to 13% last year during the heatwave. So we're there already!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 867 ✭✭✭cobham


    It seems like over 4 wks since any rain here in Dublin. Waterbutts had to be disconnected in deluges of March/April now near empty from watering garden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 107 ✭✭AnFearCeart


    Very dry. From Latest Farming Commentary - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

    The whole country could take 40mm to 65mm of rain and the ground would soak it all up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    And we could well get that tally by next weekend, in the form of thunder showers. I'm exaggerating but an end to the current drought is now looking certain!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Don't be so negative! Itl rain every day from June 10th onwards. That was always the day and still is. Drought will be over by week 3 of June. That's how to be negative JS



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,989 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Stared to notice leaves are dropping on the tree. Not many so far



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Grass and plants look no different to me than they do any other year. Its normal in Ireland to get no or very little rain for a month and thne loads of rain for a month. Since I was a child we have been getting weather patterns like this. We have never had a drought. Maybe the definition of a drought, but we have never not had any water



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Any rainfall over the weekend is looking very patchy. In general the dry weather continues right up to end of following week. Also I don't get the thunder potential, the showers showing on gfs run lack intensity



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,248 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I’d call this “breakdown” a breakdown of the blue skies more so than anything else.

    If anything it’s going to get much warmer and some areas will continue their dry spell days tally

    A welcome addition will be the milder evenings



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭esposito


    Exactly.

    The word ‘breakdown’ way overused on this forum. It’s almost as if some folk are desperate for one. It’s gonna get warmer, more humid with the odd intense shower.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,032 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    Looking forward to the conditions over the next 7 days now. Is it just me or are people not as invested in this as they were during the "cold snap" this winter? 4 days of minus conditions and the place was hopping. We are now at 25 days in a lot of areas without rain and barely a word about it.

    Lot's of patches of grass under severe pressure at the moment just looking out my window.

    We must be getting in to record territory at this stage regarding the lack of rain? Sorry can't be arsed googling.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,374 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Can't say I agree about the warmer and muggy evenings as they are much harder to work in. I agree Gussor09 this had been a very interesting period of weather



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Not really that much of a surprise as winter garners more attention due to a variety of reasons, not least because we're all stuck in whilst it's usually miserable outside compared to summer which despite moans unless it's an atrocity like 2012 or 2020, much of the time we can at least get out and get up to stuff.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Slightly confused by the latest farming update. Rain or showers most likely in southern counties this weekend yet they have the lowest rainfall totals of just 2 to 5mm.

    However, there will be a subtle change to the weather pattern this weekend with the increased likelihood of rain or showers at times, especially in southern counties. Further showers are expected next week with thunderstorms likely. Overall, rainfall amounts will likely range from 2 to 5mm in the south of the country to 20 to 40mm in parts of the west and northeast (10 to 80% of the average for the time of year). However, localised areas could see more in thunderstorms.

    Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) across all soil types currently range from 45 to 55mm over northern parts of the country and 55 to 70mm elsewhere with growth becoming increasingly restricted. Despite intermittent rain and showers expected from the weekend onwards, SMDs will still increase further, generally by 5 to 10mm over the coming week with drought or near drought conditions in parts of the southeast.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,367 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Yeah very oddly written, seems to be a few typos. Only 2-5mm in the south, and then 20-40mm in the west and north east? Makes little sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Maybe there'll be one or two thunderstorms in the West with local domnpours of in excess of 20mm but other places with zero.

    Also rain in South might be misty. Yr.no is giving Sligo 5mm in next 6 days and over 20c all the days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Current GFS guidance on future rainfall shows a gradual decrease in drought conditions from this weekend to the end of next week and more substantial rainfalls in less reliable second week, totals of about 30-40 mm in south and west, to 70-90 mm in parts of Ulster. Those amounts would not entirely eliminate dry soil conditions in some parts of the southwest, and would be around normal June rainfalls further north.

    Also hot and dry in my location (south central BC Canada), has not rained much all spring around here and temperatures running near record warm all of May and so far into June. About 35 C outside now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,374 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    So based off current guidance it looks like the drought could well continue for another week in some places. The showers at the weekend could be hit and miss, so some places may possibly escape with little to no rain over the next 6 or 7 days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,032 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    A month in now in North East Kildare without rain. Mad stuff. That's a serious dry spell. A decent spill would do the world of good at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 474 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    It has been an epically dry spell and if it were not for the very wet 2 months that preceded it there would be an agricultural crisis at this point. The drought conditions certainly ease from tomorrow, in my experience the weather models only ever underestimate convective rain and slow moving showers, given the showery regime is to embed for the foreseeable with some quite beefy totals appearing on the GFS now I would say the crisis is averted, even if some localised areas remain quite dry. Looking forward to a change myself, especially as it is to stay warm, no driving atlantic washout that haunted many an Irish summer of the past



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Our well (Kerry) ran dry about a week ago, many in the village with the same issue. Each day now starts with filling 24 x 5l water bottles from the stream. most used in the garden. The ground is so dry I think it will take a lot of soaking before the wells come back online.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You have me worried now. A well is my only source of water on the stacks. If it runs dry I'm screwed.

    Needing rain badly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    I'm also on a well and have been doing a lot of reading on how worried I should be! I understand now that it depends on how deep your well is and the general geology of the area. If your well is closer to the surface then it will be more susceptible to rainfall conditions (i.e. dries up quickly in drought, fills up quickly with rain). If your well has been drilled deep into the water table then drought shouldn't be as much of a concern, but it also depends on the size of the reservoir in the ground and the make up of the ground around it. Water fills the reservoir with precipitation filtering through the rock but also other underground sources so some wells don't run dry at all. There's no easy way to tell though, unless you were there when the bore was made.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It's raining in lot of places now. Might help.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The drought comes to and end today for most places with rain or showers about. Of course a few places will remain dry but those places could have rain or showers tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms also possible first half of the working week so the drought is likely to be over everywhere within the next 3 days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup a stream of rain coming up from the Southeast so that line will see at least 10mm

    Rain all day likely in Sligo just like Met Eireann didn't say....AGAIN



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,032 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    NE Kildare. Raining most of the day but wont make much of a difference. Drizzly misty stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    First rain in 3 weeks but only a tiny trace amount. More fell to the west.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Not much difference for most.

    Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) across all soil types currently range from 50 to 65mm over northern half of the country, ranging 60 to 75mm elsewhere with growth becoming increasingly restricted. With forecasted showers over the coming days, there will be some reduction in the SMDs but it is very dependent on where the heavy or thundery showers occur. However, for most areas, SMDs will continue to range from 45 to 70mm with growth continuing to be restricted.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    So with 26 days (as more than 0.2mm has fallen today), Dublin Airport had its longest absolute drought since 1955.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,063 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Soil moisture in Cobh went from 13% (the joint lowest I've seen it) up to 21% following a good bit of rain yesterday morning and a bit of fog today.

    Don't know how much rain fell as my rain sensor is up a high pole and is blocked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 402 ✭✭Shank Williams


    It’s a lot of things but great isnt a word I’d be using- worrying is more like it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,374 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    By Wednesday the drought will likely be over in most places. A band of showers will move Westwards tomorrow. These showers will be slow moving and thundery. Tuesday will see shower activity again in many areas that have escaped up till now.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Will probably see them form my place as they pass by😡



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