Potential Drought conditions?

squarecircles

Are we technically heading towards some form of a drought , the next 10 days look bone dry, and we havent had any rain in well over a week.

latest charts now seem to suggest the dry spell will continue after the 10 day period, particulary in the west of the country.

pad199207

Have had plenty already this year. So this is Mother Nature balancing herself out.

Well needed dry spell if ya ask me.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652097#Comment_120652097

Not sure if it works like that... we should be harvesting water in big containers, both in the countryside and on each house, but what do I know about the economics of it all.

I'm being careful about how much times I flush the toilet anyway. Common sense, innit?

Danzy

It's been drier longer than a week, weather wise it looks like a replay of 2018, that was a **** spring as well, whether it will be, who knows but you would be reasonable to plan for it.

Tomaldo

I see neighbors hosing their driveways, family members running taps without reason, am I the only one who thinks water charges were a good idea

squonk

The big issue in this country is we’re so accustomed to rain falling that we don’t plan for the times it doesn’t. Here in the west it’s likely there’ll be some bit of rain most days. Indeed we’ve had rather a lot the past few months. Ground was fairly wet up until a few days ago and it’s still drying out. As late as last Saturday week we had an absolute deluge for 20 minutes followed by quite a wet evening but I’m sure that in a Fortnite there’ll be councils banging on sbout water shortages. Really it’s like getting a decent salary every month and being really stuck fir cash after a month when you’re laid off because you just spent the salary and didn’t think about serious savings. That’s how this place operates with water and they then turn around and blame consumers for their inability to plan.

Gusser09

I have the paddling pool out for the kids. Let them enjoy it while they can. More than likely it'll be a washout when they are on holidays.

Gonzo

I can't believe there is a thread about this already after just 1 to 2 weeks of dry weather which is nothing unusual. We have had a largely very wet pattern since September 2nd 2022 with just a few breaks from the deluges and this is one of them. The land here in Meath is still in it's drying out stage after so much rain between Autumn and this Spring. This current dry spell was very badly needed. We don't need rain 52 weeks of the year.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652809#Comment_120652809

Agree.

Though I think the problem in Ireland is that even at the rainiest of times the country's water supply can be on a knife edge. It usually doesn't take much for the country's supply to come under pressure.

But you'd still think we could take another three or four weeks of nice weather before we have to start to worry...

Gusser09

LOL. A week.

Its hitting 3 weeks in north kildare since we have had any significant rainfall. That's extreme for us in ireland.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652440#Comment_120652440

Yes. Look at electricity smart plans and tell us water charges wouldnt have gone the same way.

pauldry

As soon as the word water restrictions is mentioned in the media it will rain for months. Spain just getting our weather for now. In 2 weeks time wer back to our run of the mill Northwesterlies forever if you ask me.

March was a very wet month but the others around normal around here. Wev had 17mm of rain in the past 10 days. Soil moisture deficits are 30 to 40mm around the country. To mention drought these would need to be below 70mm I'd reckon.

DownByTheGarden

We live in Ireland. It will be raining again soon. It would be very, very rare that we run out of water in Ireland.

Actually not rare .... never.

But no shortage of people saying the sky is falling with a few sunny days.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654346#Comment_120654346

Yeah water restrictions happen very easily where I am. I’d say it’ll be off from 11pm to 7/8am like usually if it stays dry the following week maybe even later this week.

pauldry

Yeah it's most likely going to be "what a great 2 week spell that was" and then "I can't believe this is what Summer is like in Ireland" is back and "I'm definitely booking a flight to.....to escape this s@it. "

mr.stonewall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654378#Comment_120654378

The South east is currently in the 50mm bracket for SMD. With another dry week ahead it will easily add another 30mm to it.

Check out the agriculture commentary on Met eireann makes interesting reading

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654508#Comment_120654508

I think this summer will be mixed but we're bound to get some nice spells of summer from time to time as well, we usually do. I don't think we will see the exceptional temperatures we got last summer but a few days of mid twenties is definitely possible in June or July. Last summer we finally broke the very long streak of crap Augusts, hopefully we can escape a poor August again this year.

adocholiday

It's about 3 weeks I think since we had any significant rain in South Wicklow. I'm on a well and I'm a bit water conscious now we've gone that long without rain. I don't think it'll dry up any time soon, but with no rain forecast in the near term probably no harm to be a little bit prudent.

John.Icy

To actually answer the threads question - for my own local Met E station (Dublin Airport). Met Eireann definitions of climatological droughts:

 ''An absolute drought is a period of 15 or more consecutive days with less than 0.2 mm on each.''

''A partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days with a rainfall total averaging less than 0.2 mm of rain per day.''

The last day 0.2mm was reached was the 14th of May (0.2mm recorded). I wonder is it strictly less than or is it less than or equal to 0.2mm? If 0.2mm is OK then we go back to the 11th.

15 days ago to the 14th anyway. No real rain in sight for 5+ days to come if not more. So I imagine Met Eireann will be chiming in shortly to confirm an absolute drought there and maybe elsewhere.

Don't think it really matters if it rained a lot in September or March according to those definitions, has no impact to what a meteorological drought is anyway. We've had some wet months alright but December, January and February were not wet months in much of the East. February was incredibly dry. Driest in Dunsany (Meath) and Phoenix (Dublin) since 1965. What March probably did was save the farmers for now as soils are still workable and growth not too restricted.

Dublin (both DA and PP) have already had full partial droughts this year.

Agricultural drought is something else. Soil moisture deficit above 75mm for that. Not there yet. And today I learned of hydrological drought which is what impacts water levels/reservoirs and I've no idea where we stand there, assume it's also fine at this stage.

squonk

Well the west is different. We had rain about 9 days ago. In fact we had a trace amount about 7 days ago here.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652809#Comment_120652809

I thought the Winter was notable for its dry weather, indeed February exceptionally so. Granted March was a deluge for all. A drought looks odds on by early next week at least a technical one

pauldry

Ya by the end of the weekend growth will start to become restricted if no rain. All it takes is a couple of weeks sunny. And an East wind is a dry one too. It does currently look like a breakdown comes after the Bank Holiday but could be slow. Highest temperature of the whole Summer could be in the next few days if Spain steals back its weather.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656119#Comment_120656119

You do know it is possible to have high pressure over Spain and Ireland at the same time. I would think our highest temperature of the summer will be in July and August. There’s bound to be more high pressure episodes and/or plumes between now and September. Fairly certain this won’t be a 2015 or 2016 train wreck.

pauldry

Ya could be. My son said to me the other day "remember a few years ago we said wow its 30c and now we say it nearly every year". Even children are noticing.

When our weather eventually breaks down there are hints at warmer weather coming up from the South through Spain and France so maybe this plume will reach us later in June. What's certain is its uncertain.

Going back to the thread title walking to work today a lot of grass in direct sunlight beginning to turn yellow.

Gusser09

Amazing out again this morning. I certainly can't recall a dry warm period like this in May for a long time.

I remember the start of the year and people wetting themselves with excitement because it was cold for a few days. This to me is more extreme than that. No rainfall of any consequence where I am for around 3 weeks now if not longer. Long may it last.

pad199207

20 days since last significant rainfall which was 15mm

17 days since 0.4mm fell in Kildare

squonk

I’m lucky enough to be off this week and waking up knowing it’ll be fine is fabtastic. Great for doing outdoorsy stuff but you have to get finished by the afternoon here because it just gets too warm. Quite an extreme thought. 10 days ago it was dull here in Clare with occasional mist and temps getting up to around 15 if you were lucky. It would be lovely to have a gradual build up of heat over a few weeks so you could acclimatise but it’s Ireland so someone switches on the fine weather abd tempd soar within a few days. Not complaining right now though as I can have my breakfast outside and there’s a relatively cool breeze in the shade but it’s nice!

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661007#Comment_120661007

In fairness, Ireland probably has the lowest gradual build-up of heat of any country in the world.

Even going from 15° to 24° is hardly extreme. And it’s not like that happened overnight. It took a few days for the heat to build up in the west, and here in the east it’s still barely 18°.

In parts of Canada, the US, Russia, and even Europe you could go from 10° to 30° in the space of a day or so

Gonzo

Current GFS output shows that we may not see rainfall until at least the 12th to 14th of June. Of course that is in the unreliable timeframe and this prolonged dry spell could just break down quickly out of nowhere, never underestimate the power of the Atlantic. However I think it's reasonably safe to assume we ain't going to see any rainfall over the next 5 to 7 days. Long may it continue.

pauldry

SMD on the increase. Get set for the now annual yella grass.

pauldry

The last day in Sligo we had continuous rain for 5 to 6 hours was Saturday May 20th. Quite the soaking. 10mm of heavy misty drizzle. Nothing since then so 11 days dry will soon become 20.