Social Democrats

The big question now is if there will be some defections from the Greens to the SocDems over the eviction ban. That would give the SocDems speaking rights in the Dail.

Regards...jmcc

farmingquestion, this isn't a conspiracy theory thread.

FF historically has largely been to the left of FG. That's its long history which always limited the growth of the Labour party. The eviction ban looks like it will cause some fallout, but it may be watered down if it looks to cause revolt. SD could begin to grow what would be the centre left if things work out for them.

Gannon has been putting the boot into Catholics over the last few days because shock horror they don't think its a good idea to be telling young children who probably still believe in Santa about men becoming women and vice versa.

But last night the Irish Muslim Council tweeted that they agreed with them, that will be a bit more awkward for Gazza and Holly because Dr Umar Al Quadri isn't as easy a target to kick about as the Parish Priest down the road.

Its not even about religion, people with no religious belief are concerned about this as well but Gannon was just going for the easy target.

Have you a link for all this "booting" because I thought it was the government leaders talking about trans people yesterday

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar backs teaching of trans issues after primary schools voice opposition - ‘Trans people exist’ - Independent.ie

Mr Varadkar was responding after Catholic primary school managers said their pupils should not be taught what it means to be transgender, in a strongly worded letter sent to Government ministers.

What difference will the SDs make? They are still a fringe party.

They arent going to challenge the big 3. The leader is irrelevant at the macro level, in the context of winning a GE.

They could end up as a bed fellow to make up the numbers for any one of the big 3. Like the Greens do today.

But I am not sure what policies they would push that arent already pursued by the current govt.

How would we even notice they were in government?

Ah lads this business of "Catholic schools" is a bit of a farce. Confirmation and communion are just about having a day out. It's not the 80's, the parents dont believe anymore and there's barely a priest under 60. The trans education in primary schools hullaballoo is just parents telling the state they can **** off with this fad being pushed on impressionable children that already has teenagers irreversibly mutilated for life, regretting it on publicly and then getting bullied into silence by aggressive "activists" online.

I bailed out of the SocDems about a year after their formation, they decided to go full feminist, Gary Gannon writing in broadsheet.ie that misogyny was the biggest problem women faced and cited cat calling on the street as proof. Soc Dems had 2 great leaders, but I guess ageism meant they weren't appealing to young women, which is the only demographic the media seem to be focussed on anyway.

Holly Cairns is stupidly woke too, thinks female sports players should be paid the same as the famous male ones that sell all the tickets, very happy with quotas for wimmin in all the top jobs and only the top jobs etc.etc.

Still I'll take the SD's woke misandry over FFG's outright corruption if it gets the houses built. Misandry is literally an EU policy so it will continue unabated no matter who gets in to govt.

The Sindo/Ireland Thinks opinion poll that showed the SocDems on 9% has upset a lot of people. It is only a single poll though.The problem for FFG and specifically FG and FF is that younger "socially liberal" voters seem to have been attracted to the SocDems due to the replacement of the two leaders by Holly Cairns. FG and FF had targeted the younger "socially liberal" vote with the gay marriage and abortion referenda. FF under Martin tried the same thing with the abortion referendum despite his move being against the policy that FF had voted upon at its Ard Fheis. If this poll and the next few show that a shift of this younger "socially liberal" vote is underway then FF and FG are in trouble because they could lose support to the SocDems.

The problem for FF/FG is that the SocDems are not SF. The SocDems are a more Middle Class party. Its core support is not the same as that of SF and as a result SF may not lose as much support to the SocDems. The Big Three model of Irish politics is a problem for FF/FG/SF in that no two parties of the Big Three has enough seats to for a government on their own. The prospect of the SocDems polling consistently above 9% could indicate a move towards a Left/Right axis. FF and FG are not Left of centre. They are both Right of centre parties now. The Greens have been described as FG on bikes. Both SF and the SocDems are Left of centre parties. Labour seems increasingly irrelevant after Bacik failed to deliver any new leader bounce. Even the avid Labour supporters in RTE seem to be focused on Holly Cairns and the SocDems. The SocDems, if they increase their support will cause Labour to lose seats at the next GE. The Greens will also lose seats as the water melon vote (Green on the outside/Left on the inside) may also be shifting. It may be reduced to about three seats.

As a leader, Varadkar has been an absolute disaster for FG. FG has lost seats in every election it contested since he became leader. FG was polling close to 30% in late 2019. His weak leadership allowed Charlie Flanagan off on his Black and Tans/RIC commemoration attempt when any decent FG leader would have stopped it. It caused a collapse in FG support and the Housing and Health issues made a perfect storm. Martin is as bad for FF. He turned FF's rebound in 2016 into a dead cat bounce. He lost what should have been an easy GE for FF because he wanted to be the best little FGer he could be while supposedly leading FF. SF gained a major level of support and seats in 2020. If it had run more candidates then it would have won a lot more seats. Much of the shift in support for SF has increased since the GE. The SocDems represent a far greater threat to FF/FG than SF in that FF/FG are targeting a lot of the same Middle Class votes as the SocDems. At 9%, the SocDems might have a support range of between 6% and 12%. The problem for FF/FG is if that support starts to rise to around 15%. That's the point at which the SocDems will become a major party and the Big Three model could shift to a Left/Right axis model.

There may be a Sunday Times/B&A poll this weekend. The ending of the eviction ban may have an affect especially in the younger renter/non-home owning demographics. Unfortunately for FF/FG, that's a lot of the SocDem's target demographics. It is still too early for a major shift to the SocDems but if there's a combined loss for the government parties of around 4% then there will be panic in FFG HQ. Someone might even have to wake up Eamon Ryan.

Regards...jmcc

The Greens only have their current seat count because of SF transfers that went all over the political spectrum because of SF not running enough candidates. The 2020 GE was an abnormal GE in terms of poor candidate strategy by FF/FG/SF. The SocDems are an existential threat to Labour because they could end up costing Labour seats even if the SocDems don't win those seats if Labour and the SocDems run candidates in the same constituencies.

With the media propaganda about the SocDems, Labour is in serious trouble and is looking very, very old. The leaders debates before the next GE are going to be a major problem for FF/FG if the SocDems are allowed to participate. RTE tried to ensure that MLMcD was kept out of its leaders debate despite SF outpolling FF and FG at the time. If the SocDems was outpolling FF or FG (unlikely at this stage) would it try to keep Cairns of out of the debate? :) FF/FG will be dreading the optics of having their leaders going up against Cairns. FG might even consider replacing Varadkar with Helen (currently an absentee) McEntee to compete. FF will be regretting that Lisa Chambers lost her seat. The optics of Varadkar and Martin picking on MLMcD were bad. But a future GE would have two creepy old codgers picking on a much younger Cairns.

Regards...jmcc

The space for SDs or Labour (more likely SD right now) will come if Sinn Fein get into power and people find out they are no different to the "FFG" that they love btching about.

I wouldn't ever vote for FFG as they're corrupt and only interested in power for powers sake. Isn't it great to live in a democracy where we have choices that align with our beliefs? 🙄

Hey, perhaps he was a Stephen Donnelly fan!

We keep hearing socially liberal, but what does that translate to in policy?

Take housing or immigration or social welfare as key examples, how would the SocDems change approach here?

Varadkar is in the age profile of the majority voting demographic. Cairns, is not.

There are much more 35 - 50 yos in the country than there are 18- 34.

And the older cohort are more likley to vote, as well as being much larger in number.

Mcentee is a disaster! She is almost Liz Truss level of incompetence (not quite though :) & she cant spin on her feet.

Labour are irrelevant. They are almost exrinct as it is so them and the SocDems battling it out isnt going to influence the race for the title.

True that no party will have a majority though, so whom the SocDems will work with will dictate whether or not they get into govt.

I would argue the opposite.

Why are SF trending down in the polls? Why are SD's trending up?

FF and FG are pretty much as you were.

A lot of younger voters especially now have a credible alternative to give a vote to a party that will put the boot into the government.

Also, I am guessing a lot of voters are getting tired of the usual SF nonsense, about sitting on the fence and taking a populist approach to almost every big issue. This is a trend I have noticed in the last 6-9 months especially that SF really don't have any new ideas and just want power for the sake of it.

As I said, SF will do well in the next GE but their hope of some huge overall majority win is now gone forever and they will have to do business with someone.