Social Democrats

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333940#Comment_120333940

You must have missed the fact that Holly Cairns has put the boot into SF a number of times. This won't stop at the GE as she knows she is shopping for the new young SF vote as well.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335152#Comment_120335152

You may argue that but as with databases and Wordpress, it doesn't make you right.

The immigration issue is probably a factor with SF losing support in the opinion polls. This is a completely different issue to why the SocDems are doing well. Part of the SocDems bounce is due to the new leader effect. However, Cairns is almost tailor-made for the media and she is a very good perfomer. She also gutted Varadkar and FFG on her first leader's speech.

The votes that the SocDems may attract would not vote SF and in terms of their social demographics would be more Middle Class. This makes the SocDems more of a threat to FF/FG because FF is no longer the broadly Left of centre party with a large appeal and FG is just FG. The SocDems are also Left of centre so FFG is caught in a pincer movement between SF and the SocDems.

The media, many of whom are not the sharpest tools in the box, are hoping that the SocDems will turn out to be the new Labour and that there will be a reversion to the old 2.5 party model with FF/FG and the new Labour in permanent governmnet. The problem is that the electorate itself is changing. FF under Martin is in a long-term decline and the 2016 FF bounce was squandered and turned into a dead cat bounce by Martin's grovelling to FG. FG tried to capitalise on the "socially liberal" vote by installed Varadkar as leader over the wishes of the FG grassroots. It has not worked. Under Varadkar, FG lose seats in every election it contested since he became leader. FG had one of its worst election results for decades in 2020 and was beaten into third place by SF. The "socially liberal" votes are now on the move again and it looks like some of them, along with the water melon votes from the Greens are on the move.

One possible outcome that you and other FFG supporters have not mentioned is the merging of FF and FG as a single party. If FF and FG continue to lose support, it may be the only way to maintain seats in the next GE. People used to talk about the Left being too fragmented to be effective. The problem now is that the Right, (FF/FG/Labour/Greens) are fragmented and their candidates will be working against each other to get elected. There's a great scene in the move "A Beautiful Mind" that illustrates this problem in Game Theory.

Regards...jmcc

purifol0

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334504#Comment_120334504

Ah this is the kind of arrogance & ignorance I've come to loathe; a one sentence post with two mistakes.

First the SocDems had 3 co-leaders one of which was a man.

Secondly "left wing" does not mean progressive/woke and/or feminist.

In fact Roisin Shorthall was very much against abortion, until the debate rolled around and suddenly she made a volte face after a bit of "re-education" from her own side.

Catherine was all about anti-corruption & curbing wasteful spending (and giving the female dominated public sector more money).

Stephen's stance was generally about competent governance, but unlike the others he would have allowed the SD's to form a coalition govt, since they wouldn't, he soon jumped ship and did exactly that.

So in future, try not take make two mistakes per post, just one is enough to embarrass yourself.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335122#Comment_120335122

If you are female and you see two old codgers like Varadkar and Martin bullying Cairns, what do you think? If you are male, what do you think? That's the problem for FF/FG now. The SocDems have a pretty female leader. The visual element of media coverage will focus on this and it is absolute gold for the SocDems.

The old claim about older demographics voting reliably does not apply so much when the electorate is angry. The Water Tax protests demonstrated that and obliterated Labour. The younger demographics have grown up with voting every day. Every 'like' is a vote. That kind of culture did not exist for many older voters and the rise in the level of SF support came as a shock to the media and FF/FG/Labour.

Labour still has 7 seats and speaking rights in the current Dail. The SocDems do not. The danger for Labour now is that the SocDems could pick up a defector or two from other parties and that would give the SocDems speaking rights. That would be a disaster for Labour.

A majority government with one party gaining enough seats to form it alone looks unlikely at the moment. However, it could still happen if FF and FG merge and they do not lose support.

Regards...jmcc

purifol0

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334895#Comment_120334895

Funny that, lots of people were Stephen Donnell fans until he did a deal with the devil and joined FF.

Myself included. His radio interview Marian Finucane interview is worlds away from the "media trained" FF-er he is today. And we are all the worse for it.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335767#Comment_120335767

I am not sure they LV & MM plan to bully HC?

I dont think she will warrant their attention. Not unless they need her suppport to form a govt.

Do you see a possibility of FF and FG consollidating into a single party?

That would be a turn up for the books :)

Im not sure the Insta generation are any more likley to vote than any other set of 18 - 30yos, but we will see come election time.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335881#Comment_120335881

Martin looks like a cross between a spoilt priest and a used car salesman. Varadkar looks like someone trying to be posh and failing. Look at how Varadkar bullies MLMcD and there's a chance that he'll revert to form if Cairns scores any hits. Martin is just creepy. He can't help it. Watch his rat-like clawing motions once he is put under pressure by reporters. All they need to do is to be themselves and it will look like brave Holly standing up to two old bullies. This is problem for FF/FG and the optics will be terrible.

Varadkar mentioned the possibility of an electoral pact in January but it was dismissed. The electorate no longer considers FF and FG to be separate parties. That means that FF and FG are competing for the same votes and those votes stay within FF/FG candidates. FF and FG need to have at the very least an electoral pact and joint candidate strategy to ensure that they don't cause unnecessary losses for each other. What could happen is that both parties would underperform in terms of the number of votes they get and lose more seats as a result.

There's an element under Martin in FF that has become FG in all but name. A merger make political sense in that it would create a party with more support, initially, than SF. A party needs to be consistently polling around 40% to have a chance at being a majority government and this is one of the upsides of a merger. However, gombeens with their "family" seats would be very much against a merger.

It is a demographic that to whom voting is as natural as breathing. That makes it a very different demographic to others. If the SocDems can harness that vote then FFG has a major problem.

Regards...jmcc

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335961#Comment_120335961

A pact would seem more likley between FF/FG and some tactical positioning of candidates.

Also, if they both agree to shun SF as they did previously, I dont really see a route for SF to get into power.

There would need to be a lot of left leaning coalescence to make that happen & a lot of concessions and inexpereinced leadership.

FF/FG + another looks the most likley.

Still think you are attaching too much weight to young voters appetite to vote. But we shall see.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335725#Comment_120335725

The immigration issue is probably a factor with SF losing support in the opinion polls. This is a completely different issue to why the SocDems are doing well. Part of the SocDems bounce is due to the new leader effect. However, Cairns is almost tailor-made for the media and she is a very good perfomer. She also gutted Varadkar and FFG on her first leader's speech.

You are making my points for me.

SF stock is sinking and people are realising that they have no real new policies. And the fact that it was Cairns getting the limelight now, not MLMD is a shift, a shift where young voters will shift from SF to the SD's. You just admitted this.

The votes that the SocDems may attract would not vote SF and in terms of their social demographics would be more Middle Class. This makes the SocDems more of a threat to FF/FG because FF is no longer the broadly Left of centre party with a large appeal and FG is just FG. The SocDems are also Left of centre so FFG is caught in a pincer movement between SF and the SocDems.

Not at all. The biggest marker in who is voting for whom is age, not class.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/poll/

The younger you are the more likely you are to vote for SF. This holds through across all classes more or less.

Having a young photogenic female leader who is not tainted by Provos and the boys from West Belfast is a deeply concerning issue for SF and MLMD. No wonder you appear to be so worried you are downplaying its significance.

FG tried to capitalise on the "socially liberal" vote by installed Varadkar as leader over the wishes of the FG grassroots. It has not worked. 

Who is the Taoiseach now? FG will have been in power 14 years when the next GE comes around. From a party perspective, that is a record. They have done alright.

One possible outcome that you and other FFG supporters have not mentioned is the merging of FF and FG as a single party. If FF and FG continue to lose support, it may be the only way to maintain seats in the next GE. People used to talk about the Left being too fragmented to be effective. The problem now is that the Right, (FF/FG/Labour/Greens) are fragmented and their candidates will be working against each other to get elected. There's a great scene in the move "A Beautiful Mind" that illustrates this problem in Game Theory.

The Greens, Labour and FG are off 'the right'

ROFL!

Needed a laugh this cold day. In the same post you went on about the socially liberal voters moving from the Greens to SD's. Yet these voters are voting for parties of 'The Right'?

The issue at the next election, so long SF doesn't continue its slide down the polls is that SF will need FF or FG to go into government with. These are the facts.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335961#Comment_120335961

You are all over this place

You make a claim that the young who are really angry about the current state of affairs are NOW in trouble because of the SD's and Holly Cairns, yet poll after poll shows that the young weren't supporting FF and FG in any great numbers anyway.... so which is?

You sound a bit desperate to want to make this point, but in reality, the SD's and Holly Cairns will be stealing SF's lunch. (The Greens might be vulnerable too ill admit)

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336797#Comment_120336797

You quote a link from October 2022 (it is currently March 2023) that doesn't include social demographics which is a central element of the point being made. It is rather basic to get one's data correct before drawing any conclusions from it.

The younger Middle Class "Anyone But SF" vote that had previously voted for the Greens and FG is now more likely to switch to the SocDems. The water melon vote (Green on the outside and Red on the inside) is also in play and most likely to shift to the SocDems as the fashionable choice. They overlap but they are not the same.

The "socially liberal" voters tend to vote on the basis of cause rather than party. They were targeted by FG and FF with the gay marriage and abortion referenda in the hope that they would become FG and FF voters. The Greta Thunberg hysteria drove a lot of these votes to the Greens in 2020 because it was fashionable to be Green. The Greens' action in supporting the end of the eviction ban has made the Greens toxic to these voters. Those of them who voted for FG and FF will be rethinking their votes as well.

The Greens have been described, somewhat accurately, as FG on bikes. There are some atypical Greens who were elected by SF transfers in 2020 but they will probably lose their seats in the next GE. FF and FG are, as their policies have demonstrated, to the Right of centre. Labour gave up its Working Class supporters decades ago and has now become little more than an Irish Times dinner party. The glee with which it tried to enforce the Water Tax scam showed how far it had moved from the principles of Connolly and Larkin.

Did you ever consider becoming a political correspondent for one of the newspapers?

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336810#Comment_120336810

That probably made sense in your head but meanwhile in the real world, it doesn't.

Cairns is a leader from their approximate generation. That alone makes her more relevant to them than the decrepit old codgers like Varadkar and Martin. The stench of fear from you FFGers is palpable because the SocDems now stand to benefit from the Anyone But SF Middle Class vote that FFG has been chasing.

Based on your comments about databases and software on another thread, you seem to have problems interepreting data too. If you looked carefully at the Irish Times October 2022 poll link you quoted you would have seen that the SocDem support is clustered in the demographics that would typically have high numbers of renters and first time home buyers. That, combined with their Middle Class ABSF voter appeal, makes them far more dangerous to FFG than SF.

There is, in case you haven't noticed, a Housing crisis. The decision of the FFG government not to extend the eviction ban will proably result in a shift of votes from FFG. The key demographic is the Middle Class ABSF voters. They don't want to vote SF and would probably not vote SF. But they may vote SocDem if it becomes a viable option.

Regards...jmcc

Surely Violet Anne Wynne should join the socdems ? She hasn't a hope in hell of getting reelected as an independent but as a Socdem during a Hollymania wave, she might scrape through... Plus it would give them an instant 7th seat

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337475#Comment_120337475

The SocDems need a 7th seat now. That means defections from other parties or Independents joining the party. Theoretically, Hourigan and Costello from the Greens might consider it but Hourigan seems somewhat confused as to whether she's for or against the government. Wynne might be problematic but would be useful.

Regards...jmcc

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337522#Comment_120337522

Costello seems like a good fit for the SD's, but Hourigan is too left. SD's are a bit too middle class/snooty for the members of An Rabharta Glas.

Agreed on Wynne coming with a lot of baggage.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337475#Comment_120337475

They ain't gonna touch Wynne this is surely a wind up.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337609#Comment_120337609

Joe O'Brien might also be a possible though he's currently a minister. The people who formed ARG had a lot in common with Fis Nua. There was a kind of Left and Right Green party before the 2007 GE but a lot of Greens disagreed with going into government while the realists understood that it was the only way to get Green policies enacted. The ARG people vastly underestimated the Green party when they tried to depose Ryan in a leadership coup. The Greens weren't the Labour party. The end of the eviction ban, in terms of defections from other parties, is a kind of black swan event that TDs in marginal seats could use to try save their seats. It has happened with Donnelly's SocDems to FF move. It happened with Cullen in the PDs to FF move and also with Cannon/PDs and his move to FG though the PDs had imploded by that time. Party movements in Irish politics generally tend to be from party to Independent. A few more positive opinion polls for the SocDems and there may be some defections. If they come at the expense of FFG, it would instantly make the SocDems a player rather than a fringe party.

Regards...jmcc

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337143#Comment_120337143

You quote a link from October 2022 (it is currently March 2023)

Yes, the SF vote has fallen since then.

doesn't include social demographics which is a central element of the point being made. It is rather basic to get one's data correct before drawing any conclusions from it.

Eh, yes it does, you are just too blind or unwilling to see it.

However, its age not class that is the biggest trend for who votes for SF.

The older you are, the less likely you are to vote for SF.

The younger you are, the more likely you are to vote for SF.

Therefore, the young female Holly Cairns who has good digital media skills represents the biggest danger to SF

More on the above.

You will see that the 25-34 and 35-49 age groups has the best support for the SD, at 5% each. SF onto a loser here since they get a lot of their support at this age cohort.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337325#Comment_120337325

Not sure what databases have to do with the argument, but I do remember people ran rings around you when SF was found in breach of GDPR rules and you tried to explain (badly) these issues away.

Indeed the vigour in trying to say that Holly Cairns is an issue for FG and FF is laughable, as these voters wouldn't be voting for them anyway.

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337522#Comment_120337522

2 Soc Dem TDs in same constituency just wouldnt work

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338106#Comment_120338106

Nah. You and that other poster didn't have a clue about databases or Wordpress but the two of you kept on waffling even when it was explained in simple terms with drool-proof electrons for you. SF followed the recommendations of the Data Protection Commissioner and the matter was resolved. FG was also found to be in breach of GDPR regulations as was, I think, FF on certain websites. It turned out that FG was hosting its website with the same hosting company (Linode which is now owned by Akamai) that FG used. Both FF and FG also followed the recommendations of the DPC.

FG and FF had targeted the "socially liberal" voters with the gay marriage and abortion referenda without really understanding that particular demographic. The reason why some of those referenda votes didn't translate into election votes is simple. Many of the votes were transient in that they were "home to vote". Now, these socially liberal voters have a viable alternative option in the SocDems.

Regards...jmcc

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338202#Comment_120338202

You and that other poster didn't have a clue about databases or Wordpress but the two of you kept on waffling even when it was explained in simple terms with drool-proof electrons for you.

I have no idea what you are on about, as you a) are making stuff up, or b) getting me confused with someone else.

SF followed the recommendations of the Data Protection Commissioner and the matter was resolved.

After they were found to be using an illegal database with no consent from the data owners.

FG and FF had targeted the "socially liberal" voters with the gay marriage and abortion referenda without really understanding that particular demographic. The reason why some of those referenda votes didn't translate into election votes is simple. Many of the votes were transient in that they were "home to vote". Now, these socially liberal voters have a viable alternative option in the SocDems.

A lot of waffle, but you agree, that the more socially liberal young voters wont be voting much for FF and FG anyway, yet you think SD are going to hover up these voters from FF and FG.

Hilarious logic.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338088#Comment_120338088

Strange. Didn't appear earlier. Either I have problems with my eyesight or connection. Thank you for confirming what I have been saying about the SocDem's support by social demographic. If you looked closely at the table, you would have seen that the support for the SocDems is concentrated in the AB,C1 groups. SF's support is much broader in nature. The concentration of the SocDem support in in the AB,C1 demographics and the 25-34 and 35-49 is what makes it so dangerous to FG. SF support is strong across all age and social demograpics. The SocDem support is concentrated by age and by social demographics. That particular niche is the one that FG has been trying to target.

Regards...jmcc

Ha Long Bay

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338300#Comment_120338300

As I mentioned before I have been trying to get my personal deleted from the sinister SF ABU database that I never signed up for or provided any personal details.

DPC taking over a year to year to investigate unfortunately.

As per the policy on the site the only data held is if provided which in my case it 100% was not. I only discovered this after a FOI request to SF via email dpo@sinnfein.ie

Might be no harm for anyone else to request their data stored via email dpo@sinnfein.ie

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338424#Comment_120338424

Thought I was getting a flashback for a second. :) The DPC does seem to be under a lot of pressure with Twitter, Facebook and Google. SF claimed that the processing of the electoral register and the marked electoral register was lawful. The DPC would have to decide on that. In broad terms, did the information go beyond the registers?

Regards...jmcc

Ha Long Bay

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338469#Comment_120338469

Strange they did not state that on the website that I quoted under the what data we hold section they could record data without permission but you are trying to imply they can?

I never provided any details but ended up on that sinister database and still awaiting removal via the data protection commissioner as SF refused to do so over a year later.

Would be no harm for others to email and check unlawful information they hold on them. dpo@sinnfein.ie

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338303#Comment_120338303

FG and FF had targeted the "socially liberal" voters with the gay marriage and abortion referenda without really understanding that particular demographic. The reason why some of those referenda votes didn't translate into election votes is simple. Many of the votes were transient in that they were "home to vote". Now, these socially liberal voters have a viable alternative option in the SocDems.

I honestly think you are trolling and this stage.

Look again and get that eye-sight checked.

SF support is highest among the younger voters

Look at the 25-34 age cohort.

SF has 46%

FG has 20%

SD has 5%

Where is SD growth in their support more likely to come from here?

The same for 35-49 age cohort

SF outpolls FG here. Again, where are the SD's going to pick up these votes?

It is no wonder SF supporters are worried that SD are going to eat their lunch.

Its OK, you can have a rotating Taoiseach deal between MLMD and Holly Cairns, with RBB and Co. to make up the numbers. ;)

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338531#Comment_120338531

No. That's what their response appears to be saying and it is why I asked if the data they hold goes beyond the electoral register and the marked electoral register. From memory, the marked electoral register copy will have a name, address, polling station and I think the polling box number. They seem to be the arguing that the processing of such data is lawful and in the public interest. That's why knowing if the data went beyond that would be helpful.

Regards...jmcc

Ha Long Bay

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338559#Comment_120338559

They are keeping me on a database located outside of Ireland that I never agreed to having my data processed an them and refusing to delete it. It's off topic but I am fairly sure the SD's do not practice this kind of behaviour.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338539#Comment_120338539

The SocDem vote is concentrated in two specific age demographics and two specific social demographics. It is also can be considered an AB-SF party as those many of those supporting SF would have already committed to SF. The "socially liberal" vote is mobile and votes on the basis of cause rather than party. That means, in siimple terms, that it is more likely to follow trends and shift between parties. The SocDem support is quite Middle Class and concentrated in the age demographics that have many renters and first time home buyers. The Housing crisis has been caused by FF/FG policies and the ending of the eviction ban is going to make renters angry. Those voters are more likely to switch to another party and if they are AB-SF voters, that party is not going to be FF/FG/Greens. Cairns has already proven to be effective at criticising the government. Cairns is in the same age demographics of some of those voters so they are going to identify with her moreso than Varadkar or Martin. If FFG doesn't limit the damage of the ending of the eviction ban quickly, it will lose support and that support may end up with the SocDems.

The source of that AB-SF support that moves to the SocDems is not going to be SF.

Regards...jmcc