Social Democrats

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313660#Comment_120313660

As I have been saying:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/support-for-social-democrats-more-than-doubles-after-holly-cairns-becomes-leader-poll-shows-42369964.html

SocDems: 9% +5

Regards...jmcc

farmingquestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313698#Comment_120313698

She was in a relationship with Christopher O'Sullivan, a Fianna Fail TD.

I'm apprehensive about her reasons for getting into politics. She's from a dairy farm and we all know every dairy farmer is a cute hoor.

I don't think a social democrat voter and a fianna fail voter could work in a relationship, nevermind two people who supposedly feel so strongly about politics that they run for election.

She said this in 2020 before the election:

“Obviously, we get on like a house on fire personally, not so much politically.

Like...Social Democrats wanted Covid Zero, Fianna Fail didn't. Imagine the conversations the two of them were having at home...

O'Sullivan voted for Leo as Taoiseach, leader of FG, who Holly calls the architect of the housing crisis which was a crisis 3 years ago.

It just makes no sense how it would ever even get to the stage of the two of them being in a relationship together, unless they aren't genuine.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314712#Comment_120314712

There are people who have been in armed conflict who end up in loving relationships together.

Maybe they just are emotionally mature and reasonably functioning adults?

farmingquestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120313915#Comment_120313915

5% increase nationally just because of a change in party leader?

Something not right there. Cairns didn't even say anything not heard before.

Why would anyone even change vote to the soc dems when their new leader isn't even in the job a week?

L1011

Ireland Thinks are not a reputable polling agency.

farmingquestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314725#Comment_120314725

People can be in armed conflict and only do so because it's a job.

People in relationships tend to be compatible with each other. You're talking about spending lives together, raising a family...not two people playing on a football team.

"Hey babe, what did you do today?"

"Oh not much Hol, just voted for Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach"

"What? The leader of the party that is the cause of the housing crisis, crippling my generation, forcing them to emigrate and never have the chance to own a home of their own?"

"Yes"

"Ok, well, I am a mature and reasonable functioning adult, let's have some dinner!"

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314777#Comment_120314777

No, the examples I'm thinking of are and were purely ideological, volunteered.

The difference between most TDs and varadkar is politically very small.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314741#Comment_120314741

She smacked down Labour. That put a bit of distance between the SocDems and Labour. The Labourites had always been waffling about a Labour/SocDems merger but the only reason was that the Labourites wanted the SocDem votes not the TDs. The statement by Cairns cut the legs from under Labour. Popular new leaders always get a boost but this does seem to be something more. If it is the rise of a more Middle Class Leftist (not Left wing) party, then FG's targeting of the "socially liberal" vote over the last few years might unravel quickly. It is only a single poll though.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314776#Comment_120314776

As reputable as the others. It is using online polling so it is going to have difficulties measuring the older FF support. FF does better with face to face pollsters like B&A and Ipsos. The Sindo had a pollster called "Quantum Research" years ago. It was not considered reliable.

Regards...jmcc

howiya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314777#Comment_120314777

Ah come on. They're both adults who voted as instructed by their party whips. That's the nature of the job.

farmingquestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314978#Comment_120314978

And O'Sullivan and Cairns chose parties which surely match their own values.

MFPM

It's a good result for the SDs but given the volume of positive publicity she's had this week, it's hardly surprising they've had a boost, sustaining it is the real challenge. Cairns will probably continue to get a relatively soft run from the media, particularly the IT who've been very positive about her as they were with Bacik - anyone on the 'centre-left or centre-right who can take votes from SF will meet with the approval of the liberal press.

She has to turn any new support into seats, and none of their TDs are safe, While Shorthall and Murphy have said they'll contest the next election, I'd be surprised if they do as they'll both be over 70 depending on the date, if they don't stand they won't be replaced with SDs IMO, Cairns own seat is vulnerable though being the leader may help, Gannon will face a real battle to hold on - O'Callaghan and Whitmore will hold on I suspect but it's hard to see where they'll make gains.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314776#Comment_120314776

Lol, denial isn't just a river in Egypt, evidently.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315043#Comment_120315043

Take a look at their polls versus actual results - they're terrible.

RedC are the only ones that are of any real use. IPSOS are just about OK; the others - Ireland Thinks, Amarach, B&A and Quantum if they're still going - are useless.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314880#Comment_120314880

Any online only ones are utterly useless.

Ireland Thinks are not reputable; this is not a realistic result and if people want to claim it is they are going to have to explain why the polls fall away in the next few months - or just pretend they never thought it was realistic!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314712#Comment_120314712

The two of them were on the council together. They probably just spent a lot of time together, fancied each other and one thing led to another. Then, probably for some of the reasons that you have given, the relationship ran out of steam. They broke up years ago (he's engaged to someone else now). The whole thing is a non-issue at this stage.

If you're going to have that level of scrutiny about people's private lives then half of the Dail would probably be found wanting. For example, the leader of one of the other parties was caught kissing some young fella in a nightclub while supposedly being in a long-term relationship. Does that show a lack of judgement that should disqualify them from being a politician? If you start applying that sort of logic to politicians it's a slippery slope.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315257#Comment_120315257

Opinion polls are snapshots of public opinion at a specific time. They typically ask the first voting preference of people being surveyed if an election was held tomorrow. They are not predictions and the Irish voting system is based on the single transferrable vote. Only those who exceed or reach the quota in such elections are elected on the first count. After that, it is all up to the transfers and most opinion polls don't ask about those. This is one of the reasons why it is often difficult to reconcile opinion poll results with GE results. Another is that these are opinion polls measuring national support and elections take place at a local level.

Ireland Thinks and RedC use online polling. Both underestimate the support for FF because FF's support is concentrated in older demographics and many people in those demographics don't like online polling. Those in the younger demographics vote almost every day online with 'likes' and surveys. RedC uses a panel of 40K voters that it thinks represents the electorate. In effect, its random sample is a a sample of a sample. Because it is using a sample of a sample for its approximately 1K surveys, there is a possibility that a voter will be surveyed more than once in a year. That gives RedC polls some characteristics of a tracking poll. A tracking poll surveys the changing opinions of the same set of people over time. Ireland Thinks uses a random sample, I think. This means that its sample might be more representative of the electorate.

B&A and Ipsos use random samples and face to face polling. Face to face polling favours the older FF demographics. This is why FF can appear to have more support in B&A polls than it does in RedC. It does not mean that B&A's percentages are wrong or RedC's are wrong. They are correct for what they are measuring with their methodologies. Ipsos tends to use larger sample sizes and as such the its Margin of Error is lower than some of the others.

The results of all opinion polls gradually start to coincide as the election day approaches. This is because the candidates become known and most people, other than the party supporters, begin to make their voting choice in the last few weeks before the election day. Sometimes, issues will change the outcome of a GE. In late 2019, FG was close to 30% in the opinion polls. Then Charlie Flanagan decided to commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC and the weak and ineffectual leadership of Varadkar left him do it. If you look at the graphs for the opinion polls, ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election ), FG's support collapses over January 2020. Some of this was due to Housing and Health becoming election issues.

Opinion polls are event driven while elections are largely issue driven. Some of the boost that the SocDems have seen in the Sindo/Ireland Thinks poll may be due to the new leadership. However, some may be due to the way that the speculation about a Labour/SocDems merger was abruptly terminated in a very public manner and the Labourites weren't pleased. The media seems to be favouring the SocDems now. It is, for some of them, a kind of acceptable non-SF and non-FFG choice. If the SocDems continue to get favourable media coverage then the SocDems might keep some of the gains. For any kind of certainty, it would be necessary to see how the SocDems perform in other polls using different methodologies (RedC, B&A) and whether they pick up the same increase in support.

TL;DR version: Opinion polls are event driven. Elections are largely issue driven.

Regards...jmcc

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314712#Comment_120314712

Jaysus thats ridiculous. People can be in relationships and have different views on things.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315972#Comment_120315972

Not to mention prurient and misogynistic...

MrMusician18

Such a short sharp rise in sentiment towards the soc Dems is interesting for a couple of reasons. 1 is that it shows the value of publicity. Cairns has said nothing new this week, but has been getting plenty of press. This might point to having such a short non contest being a mistake. The second is that there is a substantial cohort out there that's support is very soft and can be easily swayed.

The soc Dems challenge here is to maintain this support in the absence of the level of coverage associated with a leadership campaign. I think this therefore will prove to be a high point for them - mid cycle so no use to anyone.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120316003#Comment_120316003

To be fair, this thread reeks of misogyny.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314712#Comment_120314712

That’s unfair to dairy farmers

all farmers are “ cute hoors “

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315864#Comment_120315864

Great post jmcc

Mad_maxx

It’s bad news for the faint possibility of FF or FG taking a more conservative approach to crime , immigration or other issues that are important to most of the population, the Greens are the tail wagging the dog in this government, the Soc Dems might well go into power with FF and FG next time if SF can’t get the numbers and that means another WOKE regime as the Soc Dems will demand a disproportionately big say in a coalition

walterking

I think the Labour party are on life support. Bacik has not given them any lift.

I suspect any potential Labour party candidates will look at defecting to Social Democrats as they have little negative baggage and what looks to be a good leader and a good chance to have 15+ td's. You may even see one or two Labour td's move across before the next election.

FF/FG may well provide little opposition to them as the SD will probably take votes away from sinn fein.

Woah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120316350#Comment_120316350

The likes of Dunchan Smith would be much better off in the SDs than a dying labour party. He also wasnt a TD in the 2011-16 government so would be ''clean'' so to speak.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120316350#Comment_120316350

SF may not lose much support to the SocDems. Some of the SocDem support are, for want of a better phrase, Mastercard Marxists. They are more Middle Class and slightly Left whereas SF's support has been strongly Left in the past but now it has drifted towards the centre. FG spent a lot of time foolishly chasing the "socially liberal" vote while neglecting its own more conservative base. The same thing happened to FF under Martin. The "socially liberal" vote is just as mobile as the water melon vote but tends to vote out of self-interest more than cause.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315255#Comment_120315255

Your confidence in RedC seems a bit misplaced especially while criticising others. These are the 2016 GE polls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Irish_general_election

RedC was using a rather clueless assumption that cut off those with a less than 80% likelihood to vote. The problem was that the Water Tax was an active election issue and people had become quite polarised about it. A few days before the election, RedC had, compared to the GE three days later, a +4.5% error on FG, a -4.3% error on FF. The theory about Quantum Research was that it was just the Sindo newsroom. Ipsos tends to be better as it uses face to face polling and a larger sample size. However, the IT doesn't run an Ipsos poll each month and has reverted to what appears to be quarterly polling.

I thnk that the next opinion poll due is the Sunday Times/B&A poll. That uses face to face polling and may show if the SocDem boost is sustained. SBP/RedC tends to appear late in the month. The RedC poll is also an online poll. If you look at the pattern of RedC and Ireland Thinks polls, there's not much difference (the differences are generally within a 3% window). This may be an effect of online polling and support demographics. (Both RedC and Ireland Thinks tend to have FF at a lower percentage than B&A and Ipsos (face to face polling).)

It is best to think of parties having a range of support based on these opinion polls. Consequently, the SocDems may have a maximum range of 6% to 12%. A party needs to be consistently polling around 5% to be considered a national party. Below that and a party's support becomes higly fragmented and completely dependent on personal votes rather than ideology. The two ex-leaders were a problem for the SocDems. With them taking a back seat, the challenge for the SocDems is to keep above 5% across all polls, all of the time.

The B&A poll will be the most interesting for the SocDems because it is an offline poll whereas much of the support for the SocDems is in younger demographics that are almost perpetually online. If FF and FG support falls and SocDem support correspondingly increases, this could be the "socially liberal" vote that both Varadkar and Martin chased moving but on such small samples and without knowing prior voting/support patterns, it would be difficult to say if that was the only reason.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120316123#Comment_120316123

the Soc Dems might well go into power with FF and FG next time if SF can’t get the numbers 

Soc Dems, Labour and Greens will face an intriguing dilemma if some combination of the three are in a position to put FF and FG into government but not SF. Do they refuse to put 'conservative' parties back into government? In that case FF/SF in some form would surely be the only possible government. So FF would be part of the government whatever happens. So does Holly revisit the possibility of a deal with the FF/FG, devil, given her keeness for the Soc Dems to be in government making a difference?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120318122#Comment_120318122

It's too far away at present to judge. Current sentiment appears to be that middle of the road voters are getting a bit fed up of the FF/FG choice and looking for somewhere else to park their vote. SF still have the whiff of cordite and lack of democracy - they are however picking up the 20/30 something vote that is pissed off with housing and rents. There's a substantial whack of other votes to play for and it's a question whether the SDs, Labour or Greens can get ahead of the others or will they just split the vote and lose out. If they have any sense at all, they'd coalesce or form a strong pact between themselves. Give the electorate a good alternative option and watch them seize it.