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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The numbers don't make sense anymore compared to the cost. From their report:

    Revised estimates of the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one hospitalisation during the Omicron era indicate that 800 persons aged 70 years and above would need to be given a booster in autumn 2022 (a fourth dose) to prevent one hospitalisation from COVID-19. The corresponding NNV for persons aged 50 to 59 years is 8,000 and for persons aged 40 to 49 years who are not in a clinical risk group is 92,500 (Appendix 1).


    Diminishing returns



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,003 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    One would think that the return would be worth it for the numbers that continue to need hospitalisation in the UK given their current crisis in the NHS , which is surprisingly, worse than ours .

    But sure number crunchers rarely can see the bigger picture , just the balance sheet .



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,452 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    What did Bill G actually say? Without even searching for it, I bet its that he wants better vaccines (who doesnt want a better vaccine/medicine/treatment for any disease?) but that the current vaccines are performing well.

    You've really spun down the rabbit holes recently.



  • Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    @Goldengirl you probably already know this, but they are now offering third boosters to those age 12-64 with high risk of illness, as long as their last booster was not a bivalent booster.

    I've booked the appointment for mine 👍️



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭walus


    He said that they need to fix the three promises of the current mRNA vaccines, which he then described as per my post above.

    That is the thing, he said that the current vaccine does not perform very well, and that is particularly worrying for the elderly. And that is what was striking about his speech. The blocker/inhaler concept is very interesting I must say. Would be very appealing to people who simply don’t like masks.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,554 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Same here sure. A HSE manager said yesterday that only 6% of 18-49 year olds had availed of the booster since end Dec. Demand is low and they don't expect it to improve. It explains why most of the healthcare workers in that age bracket have declined the booster.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    So do you perhaps have a link to this speech so that people can judge for themselves whether what he actually said tallies with your description?

    Because you language here is vague 'reportedly' ? Reported by whom and where?

    At the moment your claims are without foundation.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Where did he say the current vaccine "does not perform particularly well"?

    Exact part of the speech please.

    Because it's not stated in the excerpted segment from about 54 minutes which you reference about the "three promises".

    Earlier in the speech, at about 6:50 minutes, he also said of vaccines, with regard to the vulnerable which includes the elderly:

    "You can cut the death rate by about 70%."

    Therefore, I cannot tally your description either from the speech or with regard to those remarks.

    Likewise the push for vaccines to pither out? Nobody who watches that speech could draw that conclusion on a fair and balanced asssessment.

    The speech in full is here for people to make up their own minds about the fairness and accuracy of your description and whether you have misrepresented his remarks:

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/event/preparing-global-challenges-conversation-bill-gates

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,386 ✭✭✭NSAman


    Ok..no I am not anti-vax.

    it’s just a personal observation on my part. People that have all the vaccinations seem to contract the virus more?

    I am vaxed but not boosted. I have had my flu shot for this year. Yet my friends (who are all vaxed and boosted to the max) have had covid 3 and four times. I have had it once? I do take precautions on public transport, planes, etc…I still meet with many people on a daily basis…

    am I lucky or is something else going on?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    'seem' is the key word.

    That's not the same thing.

    There could be myriad of reasons in such a small set.

    For one thing, they've already distinguished themselves in behaviour from you by getting boosted. What was their reasoning?

    Are your friends picking it up from their kids?

    How many of their infections were symptomatic?

    Are they testing themselves more because of their jobs or vulnerable relatives? Is that why they went for boosters and you did not?

    Maybe you had it and didn't realise it, and so now have natural immunity boost on top of your vaccination.

    For any virus, there will be a small % of people who are just naturally immune. You could be one of the lucky ones.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭walus


    Did Bill Gates say this?

    54:32 – 54:46

    "...We also need to fix three promises of vaccines. The current vaccines are not infection blocking, they are not broad, so when new variants come up you lose protection, and they have very short duration, particularly in the people that matter, which are old people...".

    Or did he not?

    To me you don't need to fix something that performs as expected. You fix and improve product that either you and/or your customer is not happy with.

    I do not see how what he said word for word is much different to what my recollection of what he said was.

    In his speech he was also on about the gigantic market of cancer treatments, which is what he is after - mass application.

    My comment on the fact that the push for vaccines will die off is my own opinion. Everyone is entitled to have one.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You're been caught out perpetuating a con job.

    Where did Bill Gates say: "does not perform particularly well"

    This is what you wrote:

    he said that the current vaccine does not perform very well

    This made it seem like he actually said that. Not what your recollection was. But what he actually said.

    He did not say that.

    Having opinions is one thing, projecting them as others words and misrepresenting that in posts is entirely different.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭walus


    You are scrambling badly to deflect from what he clearly said.

    I did not quote him, what I wrote was my interpretation of the information he provided. I have right to do that, whether you like it or not.

    His words are out there and everybody is free to interpret what Bill himself thinks about the current vaccines performance. 

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Direct quote from you: he said that the current vaccine does not perform very well

    You were clearly trying to present it as something he actually said.

    Now the back tracking begins when your con job has been challenged.

    You didn't link the speech, or a source, or an article with any details. That was an obvious red flag as to whether you were giving a good faith description of the entirety of what he said.

    Strange also that in your 'interpretation' of the information he provided about vaccines, you didn't mention him talking in the speech about the major role of vaccines reducing the death rate.

    So yes we are free to interpret his thoughts, and also free to challenge those who project their own bias against vaccines onto them.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭walus


    Direct quote is " ... ".

    I did not think it would trigger the attack from you. I did not think you care much what Bill G. says.

    Anyways, at best I was thinking you would go: 'hey he is just a software guy, he knows nothing' followed by 'strawman without foundation', which in the hindsight would have gotten you further down the path to deflect from the gravity of what he said. It would have been a better tactic on this particular occasion, I'd say.

    Post edited by walus on

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,452 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    As noted, the misinformation spin and running away from owning the source/quote and then putting your own interpretation on it, which you now want to dismiss, says more of you, then everybody else.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    It's true. 3 studies have found the same thing now. Here is a graph from the latest one. More shots = more likely to test positive. People tried to say that vaccinated are more likely to test, but this was 51,000 employees of the Cleveland clinic who were required to test if they wanted paid time off and the authors of the study even stated they don't believe this skewed their findings. Anecdotally, it's also true in my circle, the boosted and to a lesser extent double vaccinated people seem to be on a constant roundabout of COVID and other illnesses and ailments.

    "The risk of COVID-19 also varied by the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses previously received. The higher the number of vaccines previously received, the higher the risk of contracting"

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    That shows people who self reported a positive test.

    It doesn't distinguish between symptomatic and asymptomatic infection.

    The point about paid time off misses that.

    Entirely plausible to suggest people who were more engaged with the vaccination programme were also more likely to engage with testing.

    Also, is that still a preprint or has it been peer reviewed yet???

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Entirely plausible to suggest people who were more engaged with the vaccination programme were also more likely to engage with testing.


    The study addresses this:

    "This potential effect should be somewhat mitigated in our healthcare cohort because one needs a NAAT to get paid time off, providing a strong incentive to get a NAAT if one tested positive at home. Even if one assumes that some individuals chose not to follow up on a positive home test result with a NAAT, it is very unlikely that individuals would have chosen to pursue NAAT after receiving the bivalent vaccine more so than before receiving the vaccine, at rates disproportionate enough to affect the study’s findings."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    But why did they get boosted and not others?

    They have already demonstrated difference in behaviour and conduct when it comes to getting vaccinated. Why? The study does not examine that.

    So to say it is very unlikely there would be no change in their testing behaviour is mere speculation without foundation.

    And also, it's a pre print study?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    If a study of 8 mice was good enough to authorize the booster, a study of over 51,000 people should be good enough, preprint or not but ok, keep your fingers in your ears



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭walus


    That is a pure "strawman without foundation", right there.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 504 ✭✭✭mykrodot


    I am from a family of 7.

    I am the only one who got no boosters.......just got the original vaccine in 2021.

    All of my boosted siblings have since contracted Covid, 3 of them got it twice. My sister who also got the flu vaccine in November and all her Covid boosters got incredibly sick with the flu in January and was hospitalised. Its almost like her immune system isn't working.

    I am the only one in the family of 7 who never got boosters, and the only one who never got Covid...(I worked in a Vaccination Centre during Covid and since then in a busy job dealing with the public so I am in touch with germs all the time). Strange isn't it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,452 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It wasn't, you misrepresented Bill Gates and are now spinning down the anti-vax drain with multiple random claims.

    Every single one of your claims is misrepresenting the details or out of context (to the extent they don't even need to be fact checked anymore), why would anyone discuss boosters and vaccines seriously with you?

    Edit: As a quick example, I bet this is misrepresented, someone else will show how that's the case, and then it's deny, deny, again.

    So for a cohort 100k vaccinated, 125 would experience severe adverse reaction to the vaccine. Severe reaction often means life changing injuries and thus certain number of people would require hospitalization. In return we would spare one person from being hospitalized from covid.

    Do you fully stand behind this statement and stake your reputation on it?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    What is the correct information for serious adverse events leading to hospitalization from vaccines, including boosters?

    i,e have you seen a study documenting this that you find plausible?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    We need to bear in mind the background rate of serious adverse events in the population. These studies detected no appreciable difference due to vaccination.

    For vaccines there are the original trials which you are familiar with.

    "The incidence of serious adverse events was low and was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups."

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=featured_home

    For boosters:

    Serious adverse events were uncommon, similar in active vaccine and control groups. In total, there were 24 serious adverse events: five in the control group (two in control group A, three in control group B, and zero in control group C), two in Ad26, five in VLA, one in VLA-half, one in BNT, two in BNT-half, two in ChAd, one in CVn, two in NVX, two in NVX-half, and one in m1273.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Why are you quoting stuff from 2020? This is a more recent study.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283

    "The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in vaccinated participants in comparison to placebo recipients: 67.5 per 10,000 versus 49.5 per 10,000; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated participants (95 % compatibility1 interval 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83). The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of SAEs in vaccinated individuals compared to those receiving placebo: 136 per 10,000 versus 129 per 10,000; risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI –23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of SAEs in mRNA vaccine recipients than placebo recipients: 98 per 10,000 versus 85 per 10,000; risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39). (Table 2)."


    That's for 2 shots, boosters will be even higher given the known cumulative risk of adverse events. Given that according to UK authorities own figures, almost a million non at risk 40-49 year olds need to be boosted to prevent just one hospitalisation due to severe covid, how does the risk benefit analysis make any sense? It would cause more harm than good.




  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    We need to bear in mind the background rate of serious adverse events in the population. These studies detected no appreciable difference due to vaccination.

    No appreciable difference? Surely you are not saying you find it plausible that there are no serious adverse events leading to hospitalisation due to covid vaccines?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,783 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The study you linked is the one which misrepresents adverse events in comparison with actual patients. A single patient can have multiple SAEs. It does not compare like with like.

    It also is not the case that all SAEs in that studys criteria lead to hospitalization.

    The reason why I linked a study from 2020 was the question asked about both boosters and vaccines.

    The study on boosters was from 2021 or did you miss that?

    Or that the study you linked in a reanalysis of data from... what year?

    Well what year is your studys data from?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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