FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 09-01-2023 04:58PM

Not liking the prospects of cold zonality, imo there is no worse cold than cold zonality. A damp, windy bone chilling wetness that feels colder than any northerly or easterly, cold rain and sleet with maybe hilltop dustings. The heat would have to be on every bit as much as a proper cold spell too.

Billcarson · 09-01-2023 05:50PM

Personally I much prefer cold zonality to mild zonality. At least its more interesting. With a bit of luck could get some snow out of it . Or get really lucky like Jan 84,although that's unlikely of course.

nacho libre · 09-01-2023 06:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120085770#Comment_120085770

Yes. As has been discussed recently the series of storms back in the late 80s early 90s were the real deal. We just don't get really deep low pressures passing close to the North West anymore. A proper storm to me is gusts between 60 - 80 mph well inland from the coast, with gusts in excess of 90mph along the West and North Western seaboard.

nacho libre · 09-01-2023 06:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120086581#Comment_120086581

Agreed. We may not get snow from this setup, but we can and have got snow from such setups before. Ideally if the azores high meanders enough we could get a brief northerly at some point which would increase our chances of low level snow.

PokeHerKing · 09-01-2023 06:26PM

GFS 12z still trending the 17th for a change. Run ends with an easterly but plenty of cold and snow leading into that from 17th onwards.

WolfeEire · 09-01-2023 06:28PM

Gem and GFS op runs signalling a much colder week next week with hints of a NE to E setup by the end of the run. They are likely to be outliers in their respective ensembles but it's nice to actually be looking at something interesting in the models for the first time in a month.

PokeHerKing · 09-01-2023 07:40PM

ECM giving us a northerly blast as early as the 16th

Rescue Remedy · 09-01-2023 09:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120085907#Comment_120085907

I remember Old Moore's Almanac April 1984 prediction. 'Around the 3rd week of the month most counties will experience an unusually late snowfall which will last for several days'.

We had a mini heatwave that Easter 1984 😅

nacho libre · 10-01-2023 12:22AM

Ah the good old GFS pub run !

Most likely this will be gone in the morning!

Niall145 · 10-01-2023 06:49AM

It's still there; countrywide snow next Tuesday if its right!

Niall145 · 10-01-2023 07:49AM

ECM also showing something snowy for that day

Villain · 10-01-2023 10:09AM

Some brief spells of colder air could deliver some badly wanted snow :D

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2023 03:37PM

ECM after a wobble back on track with a wintry spell of weather from around Saturday and currently showing some windy spells, low day time temperatures, some frosty nights, possibility of snow accumulations more so in Northern counties, possible convective weather at times with hail and thunderstorms and worth keeping an eye to see if the current projected stormy spell for around mid week materializes, we are due one.

.Donegal. · 10-01-2023 05:19PM

UKMO

sryanbruen · 10-01-2023 05:56PM

Very transient affair as you'd expect with the Atlantic low rolling in on the 17th but quite cold northerly whilst it's here.

nacho libre · 10-01-2023 06:20PM

Well, well, similar to last nights run. Would love to believe this is the GFS on to something.

sryanbruen · 10-01-2023 06:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090982#Comment_120090982

Haven't seen an airmass as severely cold as that GFS projects on the southern and eastern side of that Scandi high in a hot minute. The run ends in Feb 2012 vibes which Irish coldies won't want to dare think about. But usual la la land, GFS etc so doesn't matter..

esposito · 10-01-2023 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090732#Comment_120090732

My favourite shade of blue over Ireland :D

nacho libre · 10-01-2023 06:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091005#Comment_120091005

Yes, it has been very poor since the upgrade, so it's hard to have any confidence in its longer term output. Going by the UKMO and some other models we may get brief reloads of cold before the meandering High eventually pays us a visit. I think this is the mostly likely outcome.

WolfeEire · 10-01-2023 07:16PM

Gem very bullish on a northerly plunge next week following a cold weekend.

PokeHerKing · 10-01-2023 07:48PM

ECM continues with the northerly from the 15th, GFS looking similar. Hopefully we're onto something wintery for the second half of January and beyond

nacho libre · 10-01-2023 08:12PM

It looks like we might just miss out on a Scandi High at the end of the ECM run. Still I am not too bothered about that at this stage. A bit of snow is what I am after. Hopefully with most models showing a fairly potent cold outbreak this won't be watered down in the days to come.

giveitholly · 10-01-2023 08:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091433#Comment_120091433

Will it be a dry spell like the last time?

Gonzo · 10-01-2023 09:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091500#Comment_120091500

Hard to tell at this stage, if it's a northerly or north-westerly it would most likely be dry for much of the country away from Donegal/Mayo/Sligo/Leitrim and perhaps some western fringes. An unstable northerly would be a different story with low pressure bringing precipitation right now across the country without disappearing into thin air over the midlands. We will have to wait and see will this last longer than 24 hours, will it be cold enough and will there be a real chance of precipitation right across the country.

WolfeEire · 10-01-2023 09:49PM

The GEM is bullish regarding a N to NW airflow from the weekend (most likely later Saturday). It brings about a fairly dramatic halt to the three week old jetsream pattern that kicked in a week before Christmas

White Clover · 10-01-2023 10:54PM

Any sign of a dry colder settled spell? Nothing extreme. It has been an awful wet past few months.

.Donegal. · 10-01-2023 11:32PM

GFS a bit mad. Blizzard

SeaBreezes · 10-01-2023 11:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120087321#Comment_120087321

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119993983#Comment_119993983

They fricking well promised HUGE dump of snow last Dec. Nada :(

pauldry · 10-01-2023 11:57PM

I'd be more concerned about some potential storms in the next 7 to 10 days. Certainly the chance is there for winds over 120kph here in the Northwest. I'd say any wintry showers will be short term except in Ulster.

nacho libre · 11-01-2023 12:13AM

The GFS is cold. There will be some windchill next week too if their charts are right. With such instability any wintry showers will not be confined to the North and West. Another bonus of the wind is less time for modification of the cold.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST