FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

WolfeEire · 13-12-2022 09:35PM

ECM op run was on the top side of the ensembles in terms of mild from midweek next week. If anything, the ECM 12Z mean (top) is colder than the 00Z (bottom) mean for the same period.

esposito · 13-12-2022 09:40PM

So who’s writing off the rest of the winter then 🤣

Very silly if you do based on that horror ECM 12z.

Cork2021 · 13-12-2022 09:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119993473#Comment_119993473

If I remember rightly it did the same last week…

piplip87 · 13-12-2022 10:07PM

Still all to play for tbf.

cfresident · 13-12-2022 10:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119991252#Comment_119991252

i think you’ll find you were saying something similar last week about this week.

nacho libre · 13-12-2022 11:14PM

Oh dear the ECM is the classic example of having the vortex on its knees with blocking all over the place yet still we end up with a milder air flow courtesy of the fowl west based NAO. I just hope the ECM has gone off on one. What we don't want to see is the GFS trending towards it. I am starting to get a nagging feeling about all this, that really cold air will remain out of reach for us for the rest of the month despite blocking persisting to the north of us. The extremely cold air set to plunge into North America could fire up the jetstream too. I really hope I am wrong and we see a consensus build among the models to send really cold air our way between Christmas and the New Year.

nacho libre · 13-12-2022 11:46PM

We do get a brief window for snow on the 21st, but the GFS has now trended towards the ECM by having a west based nao which means a milder airflow will quite likely be in charge after the 21st and over Christmas, unfortunately.

typhoony · 13-12-2022 11:49PM

Next Tuesday night into Wednesday we get an artic plunge in a northwesterly airflow if the current GFS charts are to believed, lots of instability I wouldn't be surprised if the NW and West Coasts do very well out of that setup, probably no snow right on the coastline but 20 to 30 Miles inlandrrom the coast looks very good

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 11:59PM

GFS 18z is extremely mild, 14C possibly across many parts of Ireland from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and possibly afterwards.

Rebelbrowser · 14-12-2022 12:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119994006#Comment_119994006

Why am I not surprised.... typical

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 12:22AM

GFS 18z finishes up with an unbroken run of 10 to 14C temperatures from Christmas Eve to the end of the run and Greece goes into the freezer, doesn't get much worse than this.

pauldry · 14-12-2022 12:45AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119993636#Comment_119993636

Last week I was saying it would get mild from mid month because that's what the GFS was showing and I usually side with that one over the ECM or ICON.

Currently it appears cold until the 16th. Then on the 17th it begins to get milder and there are signs that full on mild will win out yet. So the ECM has changed its tune more than the GFS which had more mild runs than cold ones (though quite a few of these too).

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 02:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119994155#Comment_119994155

The GFS has been appallingly poor, particularly since it got upgraded 10 days ago. Consistently blows up low pressure systems. If anything, I think the GEM has been the consistent model since late November.

cfresident · 14-12-2022 09:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119968193#Comment_119968193

Sure…..mild didn’t win out though did it!

Oneiric 3 · 14-12-2022 09:57AM

Hopping across the Atlantic for a moment, and some very cold conditions forecast for a good part of N. America heading up to the Christmas period.

If that were to verify, it makes you wonder how that might impact the north Atlantic weather patterns as we head closer to the new year. A flare up in activity and perhaps some southerly tracking lows if some semblance of the current block remains in place??

nacho libre · 14-12-2022 11:00AM

Yes, on this pont , it was the GEM that recently signalled a more westerly based influence after the 21th,only for the ECM and GFS to follow. We really need the heights over Europe to disappear. They are the spoiler. Unfortunately a previous EC 46 did signal blocking to the North West and heights in over Europe around this time. It does drop this signal towards the New Year. The best we can hope for now is a polar maritime airflow that is cold enough to give snow at times, but cool and wet is more likely in the run up to Christmas.

14-12-2022 11:19AM

6Z GFS at +177. As Nacho says above its looking like a Polar Maritime airflow to bring any possible snow to us.

Hooter23 · 14-12-2022 12:20PM

Milder Sunday/Monday...cold back again by Tuesday/Wednesday a different kind of cold than we have now showers with a mix of everything will probably feel colder than it is because of the windchill this time...charts showing the kind of weather we usually get after that but thats a week or more away so not reliable..charts usually go back to showing our normal weather anyway when they dont have a clue...

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 12:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119995190#Comment_119995190

Looks like we are basically back to normal service from late Saturday. Plenty of Atlantic influence with temperatures alternating between cool and mild. Another cold spell could happen before New Year's Eve but I've a feeling we'll have the Atlantic back for at least a week or two before we may see changes again to something colder. I seem to say this every year and we just end up with mild Januarys so we shall see.

PokeHerKing · 14-12-2022 12:35PM

Yeah it's all gone Pete tong since the highs of yesterday's early runs.

I'm still hopeful of climb back from the models for early next week. Such a shame if the current cold snap is all we get from all that blocking.

Villain · 14-12-2022 12:45PM

Latest GFS ensembles shows that big agreement for milder air Sunday now but fairly quick return to colder air for a couple of days then at least. That high in Europe is not going to help us but still potential for more blasts of cold.

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 01:05PM

The funny thing is despite the fact that we are entering an overall milder pattern, there will still be cool days at times between now and Christmas and probably a higher chance in more places seeing sleet and wet snow compared to the cold spell which delivered absolutely nothing in terms of snow to the vast majority of the country.

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 01:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119995246#Comment_119995246

it's a bit like a rerun of loads of blocking but very little to show for it much like the teaser winter of 2020/2021 where Scotland and north-east England had all the fun and games.

even the sugar coating dusting I have right now is very similar to the dusting I had during January 2021 which was the last time I had snow on the ground prior to today.

nacho libre · 14-12-2022 02:17PM

The problem it seems is that blocking can easily go too west based for us, which means the coldest air is shunted too far west of us, and a flatter pattern develops in our area. The Iberian high is not doing us any favours in that regard either as that has the effect of preventing the cold air from plunging down over us. We could be looking at potent northerly instead of a diluted North Westerly flow otherwise.

We may get snow in the run up to Christmas, we just won't get ice days. Still some snow, however shortlived it is, is better than none. Hopefully with some luck a cold day might happen on the 24th or 25th.With the blocking signal remaining into January the pieces could fall into place eventually. We first need the heights in Europe to do a disappearing act. Hopefully a sign of that happening emerges soon.

Danno · 14-12-2022 03:46PM

Models very mixed and are trying on the cold zonality coat for size in the run up to Christmas. If that is going to be the outcome, you'll want a stern NNW wind to carry the cold from Greenland/Iceland as quickly as possible to minimise modification over the ocean and of course to drive the showers well into Ireland, especially for those on the east coast and in the southeast who want to join in on the snow fun too.

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 04:00PM

Cold zonality similar to what we had during January 2018 before the BFTE would be perfect. That 1 night only event dumped about 4 to 5 inches of snow here in Meath because the wind alignment between here and the Atlantic was the shortest possible track over land from Sligo bay to here so the showers managed to survive the journey. Most of the time cold zonality showers tend to be from a longer land fetch e.g north-western tip of Mayo to here or north-western tip of Donegal to here and the showers don't have a chance of surviving that journey intact. A very strong wind is also helpful in these situations.

Hooter23 · 14-12-2022 04:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119995205#Comment_119995205

I think the mild januarys we seem to get these days is a new enough thing...if you go back 20 years or more it would have been much colder with snow and even blizzards were way more common every few years...mild january are normal though back in 1916 it was over 17 degrees in the UK so this is just part of a normal cycle of mild and colder winters we get in this part of the world...its not like what they get in America or Europe where they are almost guaranteed cold winters and hot summers because of all the land mass..

Sometimes we get a taste of what the weather is like when you live on a continent when the atlantic stops and winds come from the east...and that is all it is...its not global warming or climate change we just get alot more changable weather than most countries because of where we are..

14-12-2022 05:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119994928#Comment_119994928

12Z GFS at +177. Cold air making a bit more inroads than the earlier run.

PokeHerKing · 14-12-2022 05:36PM

GFS 12z looking much better so far.

HP into GL keeps that shortwave connected to the US and we get a northern plunge for Christmas.

almostthere12 · 14-12-2022 05:46PM

The Greenie high survives and looks to reload again and again on the GFS 12z, it would be something if that came off with potential for snow over much of the country for Christmas Day!!

Just shows how much the models are flip flopping at the moment.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST