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Softening house market?

18182838486

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,027 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    bond yield rates are generally at fixed rates, most of our current government debt has been taken on during record low levels, these record low rates still exist at approximately 2.5%, yes servicing of these debts is the responsibility of all, including businesses operating within our jurisdiction, including corporations etc. its a misnomer to continually use these type of debts as a negative towards current and future generations, as its a critical social and economic need, without which, neither a functioning society and economy is not possible without it, and by not having such debts, this would force us out into credit markets for our debt/money needs, which would be highly dangerous, i.e. the main cause of the 08 crash!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,520 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The fact is higher rates towards the end of this year and going into next year will make this debt more expensive as time goes on and its money that will have to be taken out of the exchequer that could of been used else where had this debt not been ramped up to such a degree. This debt has been only ramping up in the last 25 (pre 2000 we had very little debt as a nation) odd years due to political incompetence and the buying of votes with with stupid decision such as benchmarking twice, bailing out banks and overly generous welfare handouts to name but a few of the decisions that has added massively to this debt. We are one of the most indebted nations on the planet there was no need for all of it - some debt yes but not to the level it has got to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Lads have to go back home and feed the cattle. How else are you supposed to get it done ffs?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,520 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Even with that they are still paid 20% more on average per week



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Two pages of rubbish about public v private pay.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    You are mixing up your terminology there. Are you thinking of the coupon rate? Generally issuers would prefer to issue floating debt (if fixed, they will often swap it back to floating). Especially for longer maturity debt as it reduces the duration. The yield on any given bond will change from day to day. (That's yield-to-maturity rather than par-yield which is a different thing)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,749 ✭✭✭This is it


    Thread in general is a disaster, lately anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,027 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, more misnomer conservative nonsense!

    once again, bond yields are generally at fixed rates, rates are currently at record lows, currently just shy of 3%, roughly 15% during the 80's, yes, when bonds mature, these must be serviced, baring in mind, it is common practice for such debts to be continually rolled over, and refinanced, without leading to great problems...

    in order for an economy to grow, as ours did over the last few decades, our debts must grow, as debt is our money supply, i.e. no debt, no money supply, equals no fun!

    ...but yes, a significant proportion of our debts have been greatly misused, this has become very evident in the last couple of decades, bail outs, and subsequently the bail out of property markets etc, i.e. a significant proportion of our debts, both household(private), and public debts, have ultimately been used to (re)inflate asset markets, in particular our property markets....

    ...some would call these debts odious, and really should be forgiven(best of luck with trying to do that one!)

    so generous welfare that had to be almost doubled for some during covid!

    increasing welfare actually makes sense, again, as pup proved, as a lot of this money was spent into the economy almost immediately, protecting many businesses, and helping in creating jobs!

    its clearly obvious we have become overly dependent on the credit supply, which is now only truly being used to (re)inflate that value of assets such as property, and the only way to counteract this is by increasing the public entity of the money supply, the deficit, but to not use it towards (re)inflating the value of assets, but to actual use it to help us achieve our needs, including, and in particular in creating new assets such as new properties!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    The original purpose of this thread was to NOT be a home for discussions around macroeconomics or what the lunchbreaks in the Dept. of Agriculture are like - that's what the general property market thread is for. This thread was meant to be about specifics e.g. 'there's a house near me in great nick but still hasn't sold', 'wow, supply has really gone up (or not)' etc. But the derailing just keeps happening... Some people just like shouting at strangers on the internet, I guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,823 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    @Beigepaint

    my example is from third-level education.

    The starting pay for some lecturers is 68k approx. I spoke to a lad aged approx 30 who recently started on 68k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You still have not posted where ordinary PS got more than there statutory entitlements.

    Yes there was senior PS's who were in contracts as opposed to psyscales who got severance deals retire them from posts in government quangos which were set up and they were seconded or contracted to.

    Most PS back then had no entitlement to any of the OAP. They paid a D stamp so there pension pot seem inordinately high as well back then Garda retired in there mid 50's newer recruits are contracted until 65.

    Take the value of the OAP from any pot and it would reduce the pot by 250-300k

    Pensions in general ate a mess in this country. See the opposition by certain political parties to the raising of the pension age to 68. It was a handy political football in the last election. It's another longterm financial liability we will have as well as our inability to introduce auto enrollment.

    Government rules by consent of the public the inability of most of the public to understand basic economics is the issue we are where we are. But then it similar with houses. We have regulated housing to a stage where any newly build or renovated house much be the equivlent of a EV BMW, however a lot of ordinary Joe's can only afford a second hand golf and similar to the disappearance of UK imports the effect on the market is obvious

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    Meanwhile in the US....


    U.S. existing home sales fall for 10th straight month in worst stretch since 1999

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-existing-home-sales-fall-150154520.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,568 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Interesting to see that USA house prices are still 37% above pre pandemic prices



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880



    There will be more interest rate hikes, until when, I don't know. I am absolutely honest, I don't know," De Guindos said.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Your buddy is spoofing you with his starting salary of 68k. That's not a general starting salary. Could he perhaps be a professional who is also teaching? Like a surgeon/doctor/barrister?

    Academic conditions are sh1t in the US for example, but some people in the business schools do get well paid. But that is only in specific cases


    Google throws this up as an indicator of starting salaries for you:




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Why don't others post more often instead of leaving it to a core group to entertain and inform with constant regular on point news and debate.

    You yourself make little contribution by way of post regularity. Too many watchers not enough doers. Thread bound to wander off track.



  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭FedoraTheAura



    More policymakers wanted a .75 than a .50 rise last week, but Lagarde got them to stick to .50 by agreeing to two or three further .50 rises in succession.

    Just looked at their schedule of meetings and that could mean rates will be 1.5% higher by May 2023. We’re at 2% now.

    Lagarde also said last week to look to the Fed to see how far they have yet to go. The Fed has said it expects it will need to get rates to over 5% before it gets a grasp of inflation. Our rate of inflation is worse than in the US.

    It’s going to be a tough few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880


    Few on here thought (myself included) no way rates would go above 3/4% and would come back down inside a couple years as it would banjax the economy. Hard times in the next few years for sure. What Im worried about is when the government runs out of ideas to prop up property prices. Who knows when that will be but I think that's when things will really go south.

    Post edited by jj880 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Will people explain WTF they think government are propping up house prices.

    The only supports that are there are for FTB. Do we withdraw them

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880


    At this stage I find this amazing. Honest question: are you serious?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Yes honest question because I am amazed by the continuous use of the statement

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Yes withdraw them. Handing cheap or free money at say 30% for example of the total cost increases the value by that amount or more.



  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cal naughton


    Loan to income limits going from 3.5 times to 4.0 is propping up the market. It's increasing the spending power of buyers thus keeping prices higher .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880


    - Pitiful government numbers for building social housing

    - very favourable tax arrangements for REITs - unnecessary competition for citizens.

    - fiddling HAP rates upwards (Ive nothing against these supports but if government would get their act together on other issues pushing rates up might not be required)

    - Councils buying up properties instead of building - more unnecessary competition for citizens

    - yes the FTB supports. Terrible move but will keep prices rising and give developers some nice extra cash which is what the landlord TDs want

    - government keeping a pathetic puppet of a housing minister in office who will keep prices moving upwards.

    - government (sorry my mistake the central bank fiddling lending rules)

    Im sure Ive missed loads



  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Lecturer 'above the bar' starts close to that 68k, many hires now would start above the bar. Be hard to hire anyone with a PhD in Dublin for less than that.

    https://www.tcd.ie/hr/assets/pdf/monthly-academic.pdf



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,649 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Salary scales are not relevant here. I increasingly see little point to this thread other than for people evading the rules and warnings on the main Property Market thread and may just close it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The UK is 4.5 generally accross Europe it in the 4+ range. We were exceptionally low.

    Government is an inefficient builder of houses. As we decided to try to stop building the gettos similar to Moyross, Knocknaheny parts of Tallagh etc. The decision was for integrated housing estates. E en if government build houses they compete within the same labour market....they add in there building inefficiency as well so you would have less houses.

    I pointed out the issue with REITs when they were first proposed nearly ten years ago that they would be higher cost and need tax breaks to be competitive.

    HAP rates have not actually increased since 2016 I think. The only change that has happened is that people renting using HAP can make a larger contribution themselves. As well a single person renting a NEW single occupied unit was put on the couple rate. But the rates were not increased for sitting tenant's

    Councils building would be highly inefficient and again we are drawing from the same labour force. If we have the capibility to build 25k units using private builder/developers if the councils build 5k then private builders willbonly manage 18k due to availability of labour

    FTB supports are limited to FTB it helps encourage builders to build smaller 2,3, or 4 bed units for these buyers. If it disappears builder will probably move to building larger units for the movers uppers market it probably going to reduce unit number supply. While it marginally effects the market it not as significant as many think.

    No minister is going to solve the housing crisis. The reality is we need 50k units a year for 5 years we can barely manage the high twenties.

    Whether we like it or not houses ate expensive to build. You add to that in Dublin only about 50% of the labour involved in build lives in Dublin. The rest travel in and out every day and that costs. I can actually see a situation where house building slows in Dublin but accelerates in the commuter areas

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880


    Possible or not there most definitely is no will from the government to solve it. Thats how it looks. Politics in this country seems to consist of kicking the mess down the road for someone else to fix while you disappear with your generous pension(s). So we're left with maybe some day they run out of borrowing power keep this farce going or it all blows up somehow and corrects. Excellent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    So how would you build 50k houses a year when capacity is a bit with 25k+

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,315 ✭✭✭jj880


    Ive outlined policies that are adding to the crisis - sorting those and seeing prices/costs come down would be a start. Then see where we are.

    Anyway you say its impossible. I say theres no will to do it. Whats the difference in terms of results. I think its disingenuous to ask an extreme question like how do we build 50k houses per year. We're heading for the rocks again due to no accountability on government policy. Its years in the making.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,309 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Stories about a house in Canada that was sold for 1.3m more than it was bought for ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 650 ✭✭✭Summer2020


    And yet again once I saw the first two words of this post I knew the username without even checking. The most anti public sector poster on boards. I reckon a Garda or teacher ran off with your missus. Only thing that would explain your 10 year plus campaign of bitterness



  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭dontmindme




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Probably a nurse ran off with his missus bigger problem 🤣🤣

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    Allow construction workers in from outside the EU for starters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,568 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    it implies that most home owners will have decent equity in their houses so unlikely to have negative equity and walk away from it and generating a crisis like in ‘08



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Public sector is a retirement home, (excluding healthcare) where dreams go to die. Many in the private sector would love to get similar salaries and benefits but it requires surrendering ones agency and hope of ever achieving anything. That's why many private sector resent public sector but are unwilling to go to public sector.

    Back to property please.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    It's not relevant for the thread so I don't want to get into it. But just to let you know that your misunderstanding of a merit bar is well off. You can google it. If you want to know more start a thread over on the teaching/lecturing forum and I can explain it to you there if I see it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Its not an extreme question. It the only question. The answer is we cannot. If we physically cannot get to that number or within an asses roar of of it then the next most important thing is to get as much build as possible.

    But there is a theory by some here that a massive reset will solve the problem. The reality is it will only make things worse. The most important thing is to keep building houses.

    There is already an indication that there is a potential slowdown in house building. That will be a disaster. The biggest problem is we are building BMW's when people want Toyota's and VW's and some would be happy with a Fiat.

    Carbon tax is adding to building costs every year and will continue to not just directly in price of concrete but also on the fuel tradespeople get to work in, or in the building supplies that have to be delivered.

    Dublin has a peculiar problem it's similar to every major capital city, a shortage of building workers. They will only go to work there as long as they get a premium over working nearer home. If you can solve that problem you are an economic genius.

    But thinking that removing HTB will reduce new houses by 30k it give FTB is deluded or that 4X loans are the issue. If the council's build houses rather than buying them there will be less supply not more. HAP has not materially changed since 2016 there is just more people availing of it.

    There is no silver bullet, there is Lone Ranger riding to the rescue. Government can do very little except try to keep houses being build.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Ive an apartment ready to sell. All advice I have got is to put it on the market in March. We were worried about some new legislation appearing to stop us selling it, but we have decided to wait til the end of Feb to put it one the market as most buyers take a break from looking for Nov, Dec and Jan and Feb. I know we did too when we were looking to buy. Its just not a good time to be trying to find somewhere to live. Supply is down, its dark when you get off work to go looking, everything just looks depressing anyway etc. Its just a miserable time to be traipsing around looking at houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    I think at this point the attitude of the government is. Lets just pretend we are doing something here. No point in improving the situation only for SF to come in ion a couple of years and benefit form any progress that we do make. So lets make things as bad as possible for them when they do get in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,520 ✭✭✭fliball123


    That is not entirely true. The gov are both buying and renting properties so actively competing with anyone working and doing things the right way forcing prices up and also giving HAP along with the supports for FTBs this puts a floor under the market. This does not even bring into the equation the lending rules it was blatant this year at a time of higher interest rates and every other cost of living factor going up higher that they upped this to 4 times the salary. The question you should be asking is why now? The obvious answer is its to allow FTBs more debt to buy which is the wrong approach. If we withdrew all supports it would be political suicide but, both rent and property prices would drop.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,520 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I wonder if someone clever there is also factoring in the increase in blocks for new builds which will cause the construction costs to go up and will probably increase property prices with the levy coming in shortly after March (I think). I would be wary of taking any ones advice to be honest. Prices for housing like most other aspects of life is just too expensive now and a lot of people that were on the demand side will be leaving for pastures new. The amount of people who I work with and would yap to on a constant basis point to their holiers in Spain where they can get cheaper food and beer and accommodation and when they are back in Ireland the lot is unaffordable. Good luck with what ever you do. If it was my place I would have it up ASAP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The 4X lending rules is on the lower side of mortgage lending rules across Europe. 3.5X was the lowest in Europe and I think it for only used elsewhere for certain borrower's ( expats). The UK is 4.5.

    I will repeat again because people seem to not understand, HAP has NOT INCREASED since 2016 except for minor tweaks. If HAP is withdrawn we would see mass evictions so no political party will do that

    Pulling supports such as HTB is more likely to cause builders to reduce output than it is to reduce prices. If you think that risk is acceptable then so be it. However I would be reluctant to.

    It took us until 2016 to restart building, it to 6 years to get from 6-7k units a year to 25k. If supply cranks down will it crank up again.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,520 ✭✭✭fliball123



    The lending rules are on the lower side, yet the question still has to be asked why this decision was made when it was made. They could of done it 4/5 years ago and to do it at a time of such high inflation and such a limited supply of housing is IMO very tactically from the powers that be.. Even if HAP has not increased its still a large wedge of cash that someone has to put towards rent if that was taken away tomorrow then rent prices would have to readjust but I agree no political party would do it as pointed out it would be political suicide. With regards to pulling the HTB we really need these modular homes coming on stream and quickly to quell demand and anyone who is on HAP and looking for social housing should be housed in one of these and then the reliance on builders building is gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    As regards lending limits, one would not expect that the same multiplier would be appropriate for every country. There will be different taxes and living expenses and laws in each jurisdiction. Other countries might not, as happened here, change or relax rules in order to protect non-paying mortgage holders and prevent firesales from bottoming out the market in a more disorderly manner.

    It is likely that in other countries you won't be seeing current cases in the courts about people being allowed to keep their houses that they stopped paying for 12 or 15 years ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    You're scaremongering. You wouldn't see mass evictions as evictions are banned and such a ban could be extended. Given 40% of tenants receive some form of HAP support most would either have to accept the reduction or have their property lie empty



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