Softening house market?

The fact is higher rates towards the end of this year and going into next year will make this debt more expensive as time goes on and its money that will have to be taken out of the exchequer that could of been used else where had this debt not been ramped up to such a degree. This debt has been only ramping up in the last 25 (pre 2000 we had very little debt as a nation) odd years due to political incompetence and the buying of votes with with stupid decision such as benchmarking twice, bailing out banks and overly generous welfare handouts to name but a few of the decisions that has added massively to this debt. We are one of the most indebted nations on the planet there was no need for all of it - some debt yes but not to the level it has got to.

Thread in general is a disaster, lately anyway.

You still have not posted where ordinary PS got more than there statutory entitlements.

Yes there was senior PS's who were in contracts as opposed to psyscales who got severance deals retire them from posts in government quangos which were set up and they were seconded or contracted to.

Most PS back then had no entitlement to any of the OAP. They paid a D stamp so there pension pot seem inordinately high as well back then Garda retired in there mid 50's newer recruits are contracted until 65.

Take the value of the OAP from any pot and it would reduce the pot by 250-300k

Pensions in general ate a mess in this country. See the opposition by certain political parties to the raising of the pension age to 68. It was a handy political football in the last election. It's another longterm financial liability we will have as well as our inability to introduce auto enrollment.

Government rules by consent of the public the inability of most of the public to understand basic economics is the issue we are where we are. But then it similar with houses. We have regulated housing to a stage where any newly build or renovated house much be the equivlent of a EV BMW, however a lot of ordinary Joe's can only afford a second hand golf and similar to the disappearance of UK imports the effect on the market is obvious

Interesting to see that USA house prices are still 37% above pre pandemic prices

Your buddy is spoofing you with his starting salary of 68k. That's not a general starting salary. Could he perhaps be a professional who is also teaching? Like a surgeon/doctor/barrister?

Academic conditions are sh1t in the US for example, but some people in the business schools do get well paid. But that is only in specific cases

Google throws this up as an indicator of starting salaries for you:

Will people explain WTF they think government are propping up house prices.

The only supports that are there are for FTB. Do we withdraw them

Yes honest question because I am amazed by the continuous use of the statement

The UK is 4.5 generally accross Europe it in the 4+ range. We were exceptionally low.

Government is an inefficient builder of houses. As we decided to try to stop building the gettos similar to Moyross, Knocknaheny parts of Tallagh etc. The decision was for integrated housing estates. E en if government build houses they compete within the same labour market....they add in there building inefficiency as well so you would have less houses.

I pointed out the issue with REITs when they were first proposed nearly ten years ago that they would be higher cost and need tax breaks to be competitive.

HAP rates have not actually increased since 2016 I think. The only change that has happened is that people renting using HAP can make a larger contribution themselves. As well a single person renting a NEW single occupied unit was put on the couple rate. But the rates were not increased for sitting tenant's

Councils building would be highly inefficient and again we are drawing from the same labour force. If we have the capibility to build 25k units using private builder/developers if the councils build 5k then private builders willbonly manage 18k due to availability of labour

FTB supports are limited to FTB it helps encourage builders to build smaller 2,3, or 4 bed units for these buyers. If it disappears builder will probably move to building larger units for the movers uppers market it probably going to reduce unit number supply. While it marginally effects the market it not as significant as many think.

No minister is going to solve the housing crisis. The reality is we need 50k units a year for 5 years we can barely manage the high twenties.

Whether we like it or not houses ate expensive to build. You add to that in Dublin only about 50% of the labour involved in build lives in Dublin. The rest travel in and out every day and that costs. I can actually see a situation where house building slows in Dublin but accelerates in the commuter areas

So how would you build 50k houses a year when capacity is a bit with 25k+

Ive outlined policies that are adding to the crisis - sorting those and seeing prices/costs come down would be a start. Then see where we are.

Anyway you say its impossible. I say theres no will to do it. Whats the difference in terms of results. I think its disingenuous to ask an extreme question like how do we build 50k houses per year. We're heading for the rocks again due to no accountability on government policy. Its years in the making.

It's text on a screen - just read it again.

Its not an extreme question. It the only question. The answer is we cannot. If we physically cannot get to that number or within an asses roar of of it then the next most important thing is to get as much build as possible.

But there is a theory by some here that a massive reset will solve the problem. The reality is it will only make things worse. The most important thing is to keep building houses.

There is already an indication that there is a potential slowdown in house building. That will be a disaster. The biggest problem is we are building BMW's when people want Toyota's and VW's and some would be happy with a Fiat.

Carbon tax is adding to building costs every year and will continue to not just directly in price of concrete but also on the fuel tradespeople get to work in, or in the building supplies that have to be delivered.

Dublin has a peculiar problem it's similar to every major capital city, a shortage of building workers. They will only go to work there as long as they get a premium over working nearer home. If you can solve that problem you are an economic genius.

But thinking that removing HTB will reduce new houses by 30k it give FTB is deluded or that 4X loans are the issue. If the council's build houses rather than buying them there will be less supply not more. HAP has not materially changed since 2016 there is just more people availing of it.

There is no silver bullet, there is Lone Ranger riding to the rescue. Government can do very little except try to keep houses being build.

I think at this point the attitude of the government is. Lets just pretend we are doing something here. No point in improving the situation only for SF to come in ion a couple of years and benefit form any progress that we do make. So lets make things as bad as possible for them when they do get in.

I wonder if someone clever there is also factoring in the increase in blocks for new builds which will cause the construction costs to go up and will probably increase property prices with the levy coming in shortly after March (I think). I would be wary of taking any ones advice to be honest. Prices for housing like most other aspects of life is just too expensive now and a lot of people that were on the demand side will be leaving for pastures new. The amount of people who I work with and would yap to on a constant basis point to their holiers in Spain where they can get cheaper food and beer and accommodation and when they are back in Ireland the lot is unaffordable. Good luck with what ever you do. If it was my place I would have it up ASAP.

The lending rules are on the lower side, yet the question still has to be asked why this decision was made when it was made. They could of done it 4/5 years ago and to do it at a time of such high inflation and such a limited supply of housing is IMO very tactically from the powers that be.. Even if HAP has not increased its still a large wedge of cash that someone has to put towards rent if that was taken away tomorrow then rent prices would have to readjust but I agree no political party would do it as pointed out it would be political suicide. With regards to pulling the HTB we really need these modular homes coming on stream and quickly to quell demand and anyone who is on HAP and looking for social housing should be housed in one of these and then the reliance on builders building is gone.