House price predictions for 2023

Timing belt

rob316

Prices fall by 10-15%

Head says 5% up or down, the 4x lending rules as standard due in January will keep them propped up even on the back of rates of 4%. Heart hopes for a 10-15% drop

Timing belt

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120013833#Comment_120013833

Unions calling for 5-7% pay rises in private sector will also increase the funds available to buy at the same time as the supply of new properties is reduced.

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120013858#Comment_120013858

Well these union workers? My industry doesn't have unions.

Timing belt

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120014312#Comment_120014312

I’m sure your well able to negotiate🤣🤣

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120014385#Comment_120014385

😆 Surely

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

Nominal prices will rise by up to 10% during 2023 due to supply constraints and increased demand due to wage inflation.

In real terms, prices will rise by 2 - 3%. That’s assuming the ECB gets control of inflation I.e. by end-23 it is below 5%

WFH arrangements will continue to drive up prices in towns within 2 hrs. of major cities, with family homes rapidly approaching the CB ceiling.

Eclectic Econometrics

No change in prices

I have gone for stasis. I see a small increase first quarter followed by a plateau which lasts summer and autumn, then finally a small decrease taking us back to square one come this time next year.

farmingquestion

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120013858#Comment_120013858

Yeah government are adding to inflationary pressure with all these pay increases and min wage increases.

DRedSky

Prices fall by 0-5%

Interest rates have gone up a lot and banks will be passing them on here soon, as well as the ones passed on already. Plus prices are already stupidly high.

On the other hand the government keep getting involved and everything they do pushes prices up again.

So overall i can see an absolutely tiny decrease. Possibly it might even end up pretty stagnant for the year.

LJ12345

Prices fall by 5-10%

In general, this is turning into one hell of a decade. I’m predicting a drop of between 5-10% based on the decrease in ability to save, purchasing sentiment and additional interest rate rises Lagarde has confirmed are coming. The downward movement in prices will be seen mostly in the second hand market and will be amplified in houses with poor BER ratings and needing refurbishment. New build houses will see an increase as govt subsidies continue and developers set their price, where they can’t sell they may turn to renting the property instead to keep new build prices elevated.

let’s see what 2023 brings

poker2k9

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.thejournal.ie/shared-equity-scheme-price-cap-increases-5950978-Dec2022/

FHS ceiling is increasing 1st Jan, in addition to increase to lending rate. No way house prices are dropping on 2023.

Hontou

No change in prices

Reasons for price increases: there is pent up demand from Ireland's biggest demographic, 25 to 44 year old's who are sick of paying high rents or living with their folks. These now have a greater availability of credit with new lending rules. The high costs of building is also slowing planned supply and/or maintaining high prices of developments.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/710767/irish-population-by-age/

Reasons for price decreases: Inflation is eroding deposit savings, increases in mortgage rates make borrowing less attractive and job losses in IT could make a small percentage of buyers emigrate. Changes in the UK economy could cause our exports to fall (or rise) which may cause job losses here.

On balance I think prices will stay the same.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120016846#Comment_120016846

It would be a world first if inflation tended to decrease prices.

Interest rate increases will increase mortgages repayments but real interest rates (allowing for inflation) have turned sharply negative. Inflation is the borrower’s friend. Although repayments will be very burdensome in the first few years of the mortgage, it will get much easier provided wage inflation is sustained.

RichardAnd

No change in prices

I predict no great changes in prices in the year ahead. I was optimistic about seeing a deflation in prices earlier in the year, but I think that the seeming slowdown was merely the market's transitioning out from the "unnatural" conditions of the lockdown.

Regardless of economic woes, the country is still awash with cash, demand is high and immigration has gone nuclear. Until something radical happens, I would opine that prices will continue to rise. I pray that I am mistaken.

jimmybobbyschweiz

Prices fall by 5-10%

First half of the year will see a bit of an increase or no movement I think for a few reasons, such as increased CBI limits and less transactions from previous years. Second half of the year will see a slowdown and in 2024 when the 2023 data comes in we will see probably 5-10% decreases for the year. There is potential for a big shock to markets in the second half of the year, possibly related to interest rate increases, so this could really shake up everything.

rob316

Prices fall by 10-15%

I'm not sure how you can say people will have more lending power due to the change of the rules when the interest rates are going to have virtually doubled in 12 months.

farmingquestion

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120016992#Comment_120016992

That's a very narrow view considering the reason for the rising interest rates.

Rates are increased to lower inflation. The risk is that it goes too far and deflation occurs.

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

Elon musk states we are overdue a recession.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-wont-sell-tesla-stock-next-year-recession-overdue-2022-12?r=US&IR=T

Vestiapx

Prices rise by 15-20%

Price will rise because they have been printing euros since early 2020

berocca2016

Prices rise by 0-5%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120030430#Comment_120030430

Elon Musk has tanked the value of Tesla, I’d hardly view him as an oracle of the future.

House prices will slowly go up next year as a result of renewed consumer confidence as the cost of commodities goes down. Supply is still constrained and with the cost of rent approaching multiples of the mortgage cost of the same property, it makes sense for people to buy if they can despite rising interest rates which should plateau mid 2023.

touts

Prices fall by 15-20%

The ECB have committed to their economically suicidal policy of rapid and frequent interest rate rises. If inflation doesn't come down (which doesn't look likely) then they said this week that monthly or bi-mothly increases of .5% will be the norm. We could well see interest rates hit 8% this year unless the EU step in and replace the ECB governing council (and that looks even less likely).

Interest rates at that crippling level will see buyers leave the market almost completely. With no demand house prices will fall as many sellers will be desperate to offload their unaffordable mortgages. Other sellers will have no choice but to follow the lowest desperation price. We will probably see at least 15% off house prices by the end of 2023 and that will continue into 2024 until the ECB come to their senses. By the end of this cycle we will see a drop similar to 2008/2009 when the market collapsed.

Q&A

Prices rise by 5-10%

For house prices to fall materially I would expect to see unemployment increase substantially. We're basically at full employment and all the predictions for the economy are for growth, albeit modest growth. So mass unemployment is unlikely and scope for a reduction in employment without impacting property prices. Overall impact +

Interest rate changes may act to fine tune house prices but only when they're binding. Mechanically when borrowing limits were 3.5x most people could afford to repay more then they could currently borrow (on average). The increase to 4x, at a time when mortgage rates are rising and cost of living increases are taken into account by banks, will probably mean the the inflationary effect, on house prices, of the increase in credit limits will not be as full-on as expected. Overall impact +

sentiment is an interesting one. If people continue to be pessimistic about the future (cost of living, interest rates, job security) it will act as a drag on house prices. Overall impact -

A lot of the increase in recent years was thanks to COVID. People had a blip in savings which meant many were able to enter the housing market earlier than they would otherwise have expected. We're probably at the tail end of this effect. This could lead to an easing in prices or a period of sluggish growth. Overall impact ~

Ultimately because homes are in such high demand and the supply are so limited I expect continued growth. Homes to continue to be increasingly exclusive items for the better off.

Jmc25

Prices fall by 0-5%

I think prices are already falling from their peak during the summer, and month on month drops will start showing in CSO data by February or March next year. Annual drops will obviously take even longer to show up in the data.

I'm basing this on the fact that I'm currently sale agreed on a house at 5 per cent less than what it was previously sale agreed for during the summer. And was previously bidding on one which ended up sale agreed at 7 per cent less than what it was previously sale agreed for during the summer.

But, that'll be tempered by the loosening of the lending caps. Banks are already giving AIP at the 4 times salary and that already seems to be leading to bidding wars in the 200-350k range.

The first few months of the year may also see a bit of a rush by people to lock in lower rates which might prolong the drops.

I think 1-5 per cent drops over the course of the year sounds about right but I don't see it going beyond that unless the ECB go even harder than expected on interest rates.

Prices fall by 5-10%

Think we’ll see a fall in average prices, maybe 5%, but that will mask massive variability with fixer uppers getting little to no interest, maybe falling 10-20% and places in turnkey condition getting bid up, especially in rural Ireland - probably continue to see substantial increases. Because it’s impossible to do meaningful home improvement in an affordable way these days

some suggesting interest rates continuing to go up will lead to forced selling driving down prices, and I agree that there will be some who’ll struggle. But I think that any selling will very quickly find a floor given the number of people ready to go, banked by mom and dad in many instances, who’ll quickly step in. Plus there’ll be no supply for a good while and councils getting involved

and while I think we’ll see a drop, even 10% only gets us back to october 2021 levels

Viscount Aggro

Talked with an estate agent in south Dublin. One of the big ones

He says the bank of mom and dad is not a significant factor in the property market. They are not seeing buyers getting a few hundred K from parents.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120031959#Comment_120031959

Not this one I take it?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-propping-up-south-dublin-housing-market-40403979.html

Viscount Aggro

He likes the sound of his own voice.

Spoofer.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120028536#Comment_120028536

Again, inflation won’t cause house prices to fall next year.

If interest rate rises cause general price decreases, the ECB would have seriously overshot its target of 2% inflation.

ECB interest rate increases in 2006/07 did play a major (and under-reported) role in our housing bust, but that won’t be repeated in 2023 because we don’t now have the unsustainable property speculation which made us vulnerable 15 years ago. There is some froth in the market with occasional outlandish prices due to extreme scarcity e.g. of Dublin homes under €500K. But that has little effect on the overall trend.

Borrowers are squeezed initially by higher nominal interest rates but if higher inflation is sustained, borrowing has never been more attractive.

So, demand will be sustained despite interest rate rises (ECB rate unlikely to exceed 3% in 2023 while 10% inflation will only ease slowly, so real negative rates will persist next year). There is no sign of increased housing supply (on the contrary!). Ergo, prices will continue to rise. And probably in the 5 - 10% range.

I am amazed that half of the voters here don’t think house prices will rise at all next year. Seriously?

Wanderer78

Prices fall by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120034537#Comment_120034537

with rising uncertainties globally, particularly in asset markets, and the fact such markets are extremely sensitive to changes such as rates and other polices such as qt, its very likely our property markets will also be effected, only nobody really knows how.....

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120034537#Comment_120034537

I find your commentary quite bizarre. Borrowing has never been more attractive? Strange one.

Thargor

Prices rise by 5-10%

Lads seriously where are ye pulling these 20%+ drop predictions from? Unless you're predicting WW3 then every pension fund on the planet would be piling into Treasure Island in that instance and would support the prices on their own that way nevermind the private buyers.

We cant build a fraction of what we need in this country therefore prices rise. Simple supply and demand.

Wanderer78

Prices fall by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120035566#Comment_120035566

no its not, our property markets are now heavily financialised, and are deeply connected globally via financial markets, supply and demand based ideologies are basically over simplifying the situation, as property is now considered an asset class, therefore is highly sensitive to financialised shocks, which the likelihood is now increasing rapidly, largely due to rising rates and other actions such as qt, so.....

IWW2900

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120035566#Comment_120035566

Lad, seriously, you have no clue what you are talking about.

C3PO

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120031935#Comment_120031935

This has been my experience too! I’ve been looking to buy in the South East for the last 3-4 months - anything that’s freshly refurbished or in really good condition sells very quickly and for above asking but houses in need of work are moving slowly and often at a reduced price.

Thargor

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036082#Comment_120036082

Oh wow cant argue with that logic alright, looks like its cheap houses for all in 2023!

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036087#Comment_120036087

Indeed, mine too. Still a lot of appetite for well turned-out homes, not so much for the ones needing work.

Timing belt

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036124#Comment_120036124

And the main reason for that is you don’t know how much the work will cost because no builder will commit to a price in the current inflationary period

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120034988#Comment_120034988

You can borrow money today at 3% while inflation is currently around 10%, giving a real interest rate is -7%. I think that is the most attractive rate ever in Ireland. The media don’t mention this but people seem to understand it - the main complaint we hear from would-be borrowers is that banks won’t lend them more money. (Yes, I know rents are too high but my point remains).

Of course, if you believe the ECB will get inflation back to 2% over the next year, you would be less eager to borrow but the ECB has a poor track record.

inflation was higher in the 1970s but double-digit mortgage rates became the norm and later borrowers paid the price for the initial windfall which borrowers received in the early 1970s. In the 1980s, borrowers were crucified as inflation fell (wages rose more slowly) while nominal interest rates remained extremely high.

If this decade resembles the 1970s, the winners will be those who load up on debt now (especially if they get fixed rates) and pay back their loans with inflated Euros in years to come. This is not investment advice, simply an explanation of my point which you didn’t understand.

IWW2900

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120037347#Comment_120037347

This is the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

Mad_maxx

Prices fall by 0-5%

Drop in first half but a fairly robust rebound in the second half

landofthetree

40% decline in prices by 2024. They will fall around 15-20% this year.

Inflation has to be brought down to 2%. The ECB will continue with the rate rises till thry have it under control. It will take a few years.

Q&A

Prices rise by 5-10%

Whatever about house prices growth I'm expecting trolling numbers to sky rocket in 2023 ;⁠-⁠)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036082#Comment_120036082

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120037420#Comment_120037420

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120037575#Comment_120037575

Especially trolls who expect house prices to crash by 20+% next year 🤪

IWW2900

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120037921#Comment_120037921

Remember friend, popular opinion in any market, is rarely correct. Particularly after spectacular rises in said market.

Larbre34

Prices fall by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120037474#Comment_120037474

Rubbish. You have not factored the extremely strong underlying demand and the ability of many buyers, outside of the most pricey sectors, to absorb the demands of more expensive credit.

You also don't seem to realise that the European Central Bank cannot tackle inflation with endless interest rate rises, without causing more damage from the rate rises that from the inflation in the first place. The other side of the coin is the obligation of the EU Commission and national governments to soften the inflationary pressures through correction of costs and supplies by political and fiscal measures.

I do expect things to soften a little, for all the above reasons and perhaps thats a good thing. But really, you are not going to see homes in high demand areas selling at a loss and for that reason, the floor on prices is no lower than -10% on older stock and in quieter rural areas and - 5% in fast growing cities with full employment.

StevenToast

Prices rise by 0-5%

How has nobody said soft landing yet?

landofthetree

Prices are already falling.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-the-counties-where-house-prices-fell-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-42245528.html

The biggest fallbacks in the last quarter were in Mayo (down 2.6pc), Kerry (2.5pc), Wicklow (1.1pc) and Meath (0.8pc).

Q&A

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038157#Comment_120038157

Behind a paywall. What's the data asking or actual prices?

herbalplants

Prices fall by 20+%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038157#Comment_120038157

And it is always outside Dublin where price start falling first so it makes sense. 20% fall in prices will only bring us to about 2019 prices so not that low either.

Caquas

Prices rise by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038231#Comment_120038231

Typical Indo clickbait, picking out three counties where prices of 3 bed semis fell but burying the main outcome of this estate agent survey.

Overall, this survey indicates that house prices nationally increased 8pc in 2022. The small increase (0.36%) in the last quarter reflects the seasonal pattern in house prices i.e. houses which don't sell in the Spring/Summer tend to be marked down to sell before the year's end.

Prices went up, down or remained the same depending on location.

However, on average, the impact of interest rates and rising prices led to slightly increasing prices in general in the last quarter, with an average rise of just 0.36pc registered. Nationwide, it represents an average increase in house prices of 8pc throughout this year, with the average price of a three-bed semi around the country now standing at €291,667.