Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

Gonzo · 22-11-2022 06:35PM

With much interest brewing for the first week of December, I decided to open the Winter FI thread a bit earlier than usual.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058272869/fi-charts-t120-onwards-winter-2022-2023-read-mod-note-in-first-post#latest

Cluedo Monopoly · 22-11-2022 06:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119903879#Comment_119903879

I love to hear that. 917m peak.

Loughc · 22-11-2022 09:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119907954#Comment_119907954

Heavy breathing intensifies

highdef · 23-11-2022 10:54AM

The 00z GFS Operational run was a complete outlier and was a continuation of much of the same as what we've become used to whilst the vast majority of members went for a noticeable cooling. The 6z (rolling out now) is showing something more akin to the other member (so far) and there is a good chance that it could show a decent easterly setting up shop over the British Isles as heights rise from east of Iceland to east of Scandinavia with the polar vortex moving from its current position over Greenland to northern Russia.

GalwayGaillimh · 23-11-2022 11:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119910405#Comment_119910405

Does that mean snow coming or just getting chilly ?

Gonzo · 23-11-2022 11:53AM

The 6z shows mostly cool, dry and frosty by night. Heights rise between Greenland and Scandi but the power of the Atlantic is too much and this gets flattened off by the end of the run. However it does show it's possible we may get a dryish week with some seasonal frost by night.

giveitholly · 28-11-2022 09:48AM

Reading MT's forecast this morning,while we might not get snow it looks like it will turn a bit more seasonal at the start of winter anyway

nacho libre · 28-11-2022 03:51PM

Well, I for one, after the incessant rain of the past couple months, would gladly welcome some cold and dry weather. I think it's safe to say the Atlantic will be going quiet for a few days at least. Some of the latest model output at day 10 is rather nice to see if you want something colder, but until we get cross model agreement and a consistent countdown I'm not taking it seriously.

.Donegal. · 28-11-2022 04:00PM

Nice day today. Even felt warm in the sunshine

Edit. Sorry meant for general discussion. I can’t delete

28-11-2022 04:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119931686#Comment_119931686

Yep! Dry weather will be very welcome, anything else is a bonus. I never think about snow really until Jan. Seems to be almost impossible to get any in December these days. Especially down south.

Gonzo · 28-11-2022 05:41PM

There is a chance some of us could see snow during the second week of December but this will very much depend on wind direction and depth of cold as well as instability. The first half of December is shaping up to be cool to cold. How cold it may get will depend on the high pressure/blocking, how strong it is, it's position and how long it lasts. The Irish sea being so warm at the moment is a bit of a worry, it's warmer than usual due to the very warm year we've had up to this point so cold rain or sleet seems more likely on Irish sea coastal counties unless we bring in proper cold for a sustained time, e.g -9 uppers and colder.

I have a feeling the second half of December will be milder and more Atlantic driven, but something very cold could happen again in January and by then we would be in a much better position for snow if we get all the right ingredients.

esposito · 28-11-2022 05:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119932131#Comment_119932131

-9 uppers and colder is asking a lot Gonzo. Not sure if we will get them but we’ll see. I would’ve thought -6 to -8 uppers would be sufficient. Maybe I’m wrong. Isn’t it a good thing that the Irish Sea is warm. This would produce a lot of streamers like 2009/2010. If the showers are heavy enough they would be of snow? ( and possibly thundersnow).

Gonzo · 28-11-2022 06:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119932194#Comment_119932194

It is asking alot, but I feel these are the sort of uppers we need for Irish sea coastal regions to offset the warmer than average sea surface temperatures from the Irish sea. -6 to -8C would be fine for central and western areas with an easterly wind but these values, particularly -6 may not be enough for coastal regions.

I can't remember the upper air temperatures during 2010 but I think they were at least -10C or colder and the sea was still relatively warm, this difference in temperature was enough to cause the streamers to be very beefy indeed and for anything that falls out of the sky to be of snow, even on the beaches.

Oneiric 3 · 28-11-2022 07:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119932250#Comment_119932250

The -5c isotherm was more 'set in' back in Nov 2010, with far colder upper temps nearby to the NE:

Not too dissimilar looking to the last frame of the ECM tonight, synoptically speaking, but the cold airmass is far less 'entrenched'.

Oneiric 3 · 28-11-2022 08:54PM

The ECM mean at day 10 suggests that some sort of Arctic outbreak is a growing possibility as we head into the 2nd week of December:

What could go wrong:

Tropical air too close the south, and it wouldn't take much for a low to develop and return some of that back over us.

What could go right:

Tropical air close to the south may trigger a deep low over the continent/N Sea helping to pull down that Arctic air mass over us at a quicker pace.

Danno · 28-11-2022 09:21PM

We briefly skirted with -10c uppers at the start of the 2010 cold spell: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=cfsr&var=2&jaar=2010&maand=12&dag=3&h=0&nmaps=64

Indeed around the 10th and 11th we had a blast of Atlantic air before a second reload a few days later - but it wasn't enough to melt the snow on the ground and here in southern Laois our temperatures ranged from a low of 2c to a max of 6c. It was the only frost-free day of that whole cold spell.

After that brief but barely noticeable interruption the cold reloaded again:

This time from the north and we went into a deeper freeze with daytime highs remaining sub-zero for the guts of a week.

nacho libre · 28-11-2022 09:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119932989#Comment_119932989

A Northerly ala December 2000 would be fantastic. It has been too long since we've had a proper Northerly. We need a visit from our dear friend Polar Low.

leahyl · 30-11-2022 02:16PM

If anything does come from this, is it likely to be only an East/Dublin event?

SleetAndSnow · 30-11-2022 02:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939814#Comment_119939814

I am very much an amateur and have been too busy to look at charts since 2018 really, so my interpretation could be totally wrong just as a note, but, I believe that if the ECM was to be believed, then nope!

Basically full country for cold lovers with the inner-east / North east being colder away from the coasts.

Snow wise, I believe Easterlys don't always favour Dublin in general due to the onshore breeze, I believe N'Easterlies are better for there but not the best as we saw with Kildare getting buried in 2018 but Dublin did not. Possibly the far SW of the country would get less snow as well. However in 2010 Dublin did get a lot more snow then we did in Cork, so it really is a case of the final setup.

Snow may be more likely in the north east but that was also the case with the BFTE in 2018 and we got pounded with snow in Cork. Cold is basically likely across the entire country Very much FI still though for the mad charts, and snow is very hard to predict until basically the day before the event.

Feel free to correct me! Eager to learn again haha.

Supercell · 30-11-2022 04:14PM

Loughlinstown south Dublin - next week.

https://twitter.com/JamesL1927/status/1597639094120628226?s=20&t=PFFgLexhYfpUuqfJ98n17g

nacho libre · 30-11-2022 09:33PM

The thoughts of a professional over on Netweather:

"Good consistency for the broader-scale blocking patterns now which carries high confidence, but I do urge some caution and resistence to get too carried away with charts that yet, still, are beyond 144-168hrs. The low for the middle of next week is not yet completely resolved and even though the GFS still has this has a more noteworthy feature and then brings in the N or NE'ly flow, doesn't mean that this low can't complicate the transition further through the middle and latter half of next week.

The dominant Greenland block in roughly a week's time through late next week and into the following week does, clearly, carry high confidence, but it remains rather fine margins with regards to the exact orientation and strength of any N or NE'ly flow which will also help to dictate how low the 850mb temperatures will get.

The consistency is growing, for sure, but we need a much 'cleaner' view on how the upper vortex behaves to the south of the UK early next week before attention can then turn to the more comprehensive N or NE'ly flow in a week's time or more. The consistency at 144-168hr is there, but that's not consistency at <120hr's which should, hopefully arise in the next 48-72hrs.

Other thing of interest is the massive -ve EAMT and global mountain torque event playing out. In theory this creates a jet retraction across the Pacific which would aid to increase westerly flow in the mid to higher lats, but because the main block is already in place, this could actually help to reinforce the block as well, because while potentially providing extra strength to the jet, the jet is already buckled. If we were within a zonal, W'ly pattern then this would likely do nothing but enhance a strong, W'ly PFJ, but that isn't the case at the moment, so could actually be a good thing. All very complex evolution at the moment. There still remains clear evidence for the MJO to progress eastwards through phases 5-6-7-8 as December progresses as well, that's an on-going watch.

Steady away with the block, details to follow, but must get the more coherent N or NE'ly flow down to a shorter lead time."

Cheers, Matt.

DOCARCH · 01-12-2022 06:15AM

Mod Note: As Winter has now arrived, I have edited thread title for general Winter discussion. Looks like a seasonal spell of weather on the way! 🙂

US3 · 01-12-2022 04:16PM

Brilliant thread about all of ye heartless weather gods

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058274111/worrying-lack-of-empathy-in-posters-on-boards#latest

KingJeremy · 01-12-2022 06:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945216#Comment_119945216

Sweet Mother Divine... that was painful reading 🤯

Danno · 01-12-2022 08:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945216#Comment_119945216

Going forward we'll have to put the following after each post:

Disclaimer: The information posted above may bring about hardship and suffering on vulnerable people and hurt the very sensitive feelings of emotionally vulnerable people for which I apologise in advance. If you've been affected by the post above - the following helplines are available to assist: 1800-434237 (1800-IDGAFS) or visit www.IDontGiveAFookinShít.com