FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

More easterly than last years bust from the North that went Northwest and then Southwesterly. This one could end up Northwesterly but Northeasterly the current long term thinking.

I remember December 2010 it was minus 9 in Sligo but raining so it will take a lot to get snow but fingers crossed we see some this December.

-9c and rain? Not possible.

The ECM mean is still looking good but GFS a bit messy, the ingredients are there but it could still be a damp cool squid. At least winter will start with actual winter weather this year.

Not liking the last few GFS runs, that deep cold that was in semi FI is gone now

Yup. That's what happens . Enjoy the ride

The northwest getting pasted for 24 hours on the 6z with a frontal snow event.

There will be plenty of downgrades and upgrades and taking a single run in isolation will drive you mad over the coming days. The trends are still good and GFS struggles with those lows in these setups. As ever in FI, it is wait and see and enjoy the roller coaster until Kermit starts an event thread :D

The GFS 6z ensemble suite shows a downgrade of the Greenland high signal on the mean with it potentially folding quite quickly on a growing cluster of ensemble outputs. Not all of course but quite few.

This would mean real deep cold won't necessarily establish after the first taste of slack easterly flow. Worth watching now to see if this is an emerging trend. History would say yes with regard to snowfest charts 9/10 times.

Winter hasn't even started yet, I'm sure there will be a few Kermit threads this coming season, or maybe I just hope😄

The outstanding problem remains the complete lack of cold to tap into. Still looking at Day 10 charts waiting for a cold pool to arrive.

Going by historic precedent, it surely would be incredible to maintain such mega blocking to our North for weeks upon weeks. I think without cold to make use of over the next 2 weeks, I can see the pattern being reset before anything major makes it here.

Some of the runs and their synoptics (at a superficial level) are incredible. But perhaps it's coming too early in the season. ECM is the only one with cold getting anywhere near us by Day 10. GFS can't seem to shake off this idea of having small LP's sitting on top of us for days on end, totally disrupting any cold from approaching.

GFS 12Z. Blocked. No proper cold. Annoying LP over us. Eastern Europe HP, a foe of many a winter.

The GEM 12z is rather similar to the GFS considering the timeframe. Stubborn LP over us and a total lack of cold. Stubborn heights over Russia.

ECM 12z once again singing off a different sheet, with huge blocking and severe cold flooding southwards on brisk northerlies and north easterlies. No big eastern europe high like the GFS above, no pesky lows. Floodgates ready to be opened.

More runs needed.

When last did we have several days of 3/4C in a bitter wind.. for me that's notable weather. With such short days at this time of year it will be very raw (that's mildest solution)

I love your optimism JS but as Danno said a lot of us have been burnt so many times that we almost expect that it won’t pan out the way we want it to. I am happy that it will feel seasonable for December. Not often we can say that these days.