FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

It's looking ever more interesting. Long way to go but this has the feel of something that could evolve in to something special at short notice. Exciting! 😎

As much as it'd be great to see something evolve I seem to recall a lot of times over the past few years where we've gotten amazing synoptics in the run up to December/Christmas. Whereas the last time they ever panned out was maybe December 2010 (or early December 2017 at a push). We had a very infamous example back in December 2012 which sent us straight into the freezer within a week, the whole Jet Stream across Russia was basically reversed. It got watered down pretty quickly as 95+% of them do.

It seems to be a running theme at this time of year. We also seem to get amazing runs in the run up to New Year as well. Best not to get drawn in to be honest. Although I suppose it's good that something chilly is on the cards, that's never a guarantee in winter anymore.

Lock and loaded winter incoming 12z Icon.

Everything moving up a notch on this afternoons runs - UKMO, GFS + GFSp, GEM and ICON are all stunning. Major northern blocking and an easterly flow of some sort is looking more and more likely for Ireland by next weekend.

How long we can sustain that and thus how cold it gets is very uncertain still, but I’m starting to get excited now. This has the hallmarks of a vintage winter spell.

Hopefully the ECM is on the same Siberian express that the other models are on this evening.

That +342 needs to be hidden, poor Kermit will have a heart attack :D

Great to see a pattern change coming and a chance of something cold and settled, NAO going negative and some other building blocks moving into place but it will be a slow ride to real cold as it just isn't there yet.

With ups and downs each day the models certainly seem to be gripping on to the prospect of high pressure developing over Scandinavia in the short term and migrating toward greenland in the medium to long-term. These are the synoptics that bring cold and snow to Ireland in mid winter, so regardless of the final details at the moment it certainly looks healthy and promising for a taste of winter weather for the first time in many years for the December period.

The GFS ensembles are coming out at the moment for 6z and show a significant upgrade in that pressure signal over greenland in the medium term.

Still on the right road anyway whether it manifests or not. Looks like a good shot in my opinion without getting the anti-freeze and sleds ready...(yet)

Here’s the last frame of the ECM

New GFS run is ongoing, here’s how the last one looked way out in FI.

Significant snow potential from this could be sketchy. North sea/Irish sea are still very warm so while this will help with big convection, the convective process itself will warm the atmosphere and potentially lead to sleety slop, as well as making any advance of really cold uppers from Scandinavia just that bit harder to push eastwards enough to reach here.

So meteoriteite58, you are telling me from next week until Christmas day we can expect whiteout conditions. ; )

Although i think i can hear froggy firing up the snow train roller coaster ride..

Im betting a thread before Friday. All aboard!

We got stung last year with the great Christmas whiteout prediction. We are not going to fall for it again. Are we? Only this year the seasons seem to be textbook.