Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

His planned announcement on the 14th may have to be changed. TBF to Trump he really is a master of giving himself plenty of room. He teases things, without ever making a proper statement, which gives him plenty of leeways to change course without losing face.

Has the red wave materialised, and Trump was ready to announce his intention to run? That it didn't, and in large part due to the rejection of Trump-endorsed candidates, means that he is not in as strong a position as he would have anticipated.

Surely the GOP cannot be thinking any longer that Trump is a winner in 2024?

They didn’t want him in 2016 but they eventually were stuck with him.

JD Vance who had trumps backing reportedly never mentioned trump in his victory speech last night. After January 6th they assumed that trump had dug his own political grave but they changed course not soon after. It’s their own fault in that the GOP base of old and MAGA base is becoming harder to distinguish between. The will have to walk a fine line of keeping trump close so that the base will stay with them, but far enough away so that independents can hold their nose and vote for the GOP.

I kept a small on the PA primary, on reflection the guy who OZ pipped would have won. A generic Republican billionaire who did well with the rural turn out who actually hired plenty of the Trump team. He likely would have made it worthwhile for Trump also to endorse him but Trump went with the guy he knew from TV who he could relate to more as an oil snake salesman.

Hasan would have lost to any generic Republican in NH with a very popular GOP governor cruising to victory but they ended up with a stop the steal loon. Similarly I do think Kelly would be in huge bother if Masters had not got the nomination. Oh and yeah any slightly less awful Republican beats Warnock last night.

Trump deserves a lot of criticism for these picks, but Mc Connell deserves plenty of flack, plenty of the above could have been stopped in the primary if the establishment had not cleared the field. Masters for example only won his primary as it was crowded.

The smaller a majority they get the harder it will be for them,I imagine.Are there any new (or existing) Rep members of Congress who would work in any way with Biden I wonder.

Are they likely to dispense with Trump if they perceive him as a liability to reelection?(is it again in 2 years?)

He seems less likely to return as Pres after this (second) lacklustre result.

Boebert in the lead now. I believe Marjorie Taylor Greene is back too.

What makes you say the Reps are hugely unlikely to take the Senate in Nevada?

They are leading by a small (1.8%) amount with 16% left to count.

Do the Dems have an advantage in the final votes?

I think Jan 6th Committee has done a great job of showing to many that were probably of the mind that this was nothing more than a match-day rumble, that it was very coordinated and Trump was at the very core.

It wouldn't have changed of the Trump supporter's minds, which are given way too much prominence in the media, but for those sitting on the fence, it might well have swayed them to vote for Demo, even though their inclination would be aligned to GOP because democracy is worth more.

The abortion issue was massive. A bit like Brexit, it makes a great-sounding rally call. Up until the point that it actually comes to pass and reality hits. For many, the constant demand for the overturning of Roe v Wade would have been ignored, just noise when it would never really happen. When it did, then it was because reality and young women, in particular, were not impressed. It also took away a major reason to vote GOP. If abortion was a major part of your voting reason, well success was achieved there really was nothing else to drive you to vote.

Trump is not anti vaccine tbf. He always touts the roll out as one of his finest achievements, heck he infuriated Candance Owens in an interview when he said how amazing it was.

A major issue for Trump for many was he simply to obnoxious as his regular twitter ranting highlighted and he is clearly a moron. RDS has always been much more disciplined and for all his flaws he is not stupid. He also has a sizeable age advantage, Trump is near 80 been in the national spotlight for forever while RDS for many is still a shiny new toy.

For what its worth I don't see how Trump loses a primary , about 30% of the population seem to be all in on him.

Yeah I’d agree he wasn’t antivax, he actually at the start of vivid made a couple of good choices, although some stupid like keeping people on the cruise ship. Operation warp speed despite the ridiculous title was good, he initially listened to good advice but then after a while lost interest and said and did whatever was best for himself in any given moment.

I just cannot see DeSantis beating Trump in a primary contest. He's a charisma vacuum whereas Trump's a TV guy who can be quite funny and charming in a weird sort of way at times. It's why a lot of people who have tried to model themselves on Trump have failed. They mimic all his extreme positions but don't lighten it up with the softer touch stuff.