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To Mask or not to two - Mask Megathread cont.

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Comments

  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If mask mandates work, why did we have huge waves of infections when they were in place?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Define 'work'.

    In some places they were dropped, then brought back as the wave hit...

    They work by reducing transmission, viral load. Transmission doesn't only occur in places with masks. And even then, there's only so much masks can do if you have sustained close contact in the same space.

    The studies showed fewer cases where they were used, which is a reduction in the virus R number.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Assuming masks stop some amount of virus entering your nose and mouth - totally speculative - if you throw a 6 sided dice 100 times or an 8 sided one you are statistically almost certain to throw a 6.

    And which studies? The only one that was even vaguely in favour of masking was the Bangladeshi study. A Danish study showed no benefit.

    Again, if they work so well, why didn't they work? We had near 100% compliance in Ireland, yet had massive infection rates last winter.

    It doesn't matter what studies are produced, it's what happens in the real world that actually matters. And there were many studies that said smoking didn't cause lung cancer, and that x rays didn't cause fetal abnormalities.

    Considering masking is such a huge imposition on society, particularly for children and young adults, it should have very clear benefits that are demonstrable in the real world. No such benefits exist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Droplets are thought to be the predominant method of transmission.

    They catch the large droplets as a barrier from someone wearing a mask.

    The smaller ones dissipate more quickly. So masks make distancing more effective.

     Cloth masks not only effectively block most large droplets (i.e., 20-30 microns and larger),9 but they can also block the exhalation of fine droplets and particles (also often referred to as aerosols) smaller than 10 microns3, 5 which increase in number with the volume of speech10-12 and specific types of phonation.13 Multi-layer cloth masks can both block 50-70% of these fine droplets and particles3, 14 and limit the forward spread of those that are not captured.5, 6, 15, 16 Upwards of 80% blockage has been achieved in human experiments

    The Danish one was a very limited study without mask mandates in place. Not directly relevant to mask mandates as the study expressly stated.

    The trial is inconclusive rather than negative, and it points to a likely benefit of mask wearing to the wearer—it did not examine the wider potential benefit of reduced spread of infection to others—and this even in a population where mask wearing isn’t mandatory and prevalence of infection is low. This finding is in keeping with summaries of evidence from Cochrane.

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/24/covid-19-controversial-trial-may-actually-show-that-masks-protect-the-wearer/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Droplets are NOT the primary method of transmission. This was debunked early on in the pandemic, but the WHO and others kept insisting on it.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00925-7



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,659 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Masks were never required in private homes or pubs, for obvious reasons, which is where most transmission occurs. COVID has been coming in waves, it'll go up and down regardless of what happens with mask mandates etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Did you read the article you linked?

    On the science front, questions remain about how much of COVID-19 transmission is airborne

    Where does it say that droplets are not the primary method of transmission?

    The article does not debunk it and it is false and misleading to claim it does so.

    Further, nowhere does the article state that... and that lessens the case for mask mandates.

    On the contrary

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,659 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    We trusted a lot of what the Chinese were saying at the time, probably wasn't the wisest of decisions in hindsight



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wow you are deeply embedded - it says it RIGHT IN THE SUBHEADING:

    Early in the pandemic, the World Health Organization stated that SARS-CoV-2 was not transmitted through the air. That mistake and the prolonged process of correcting it sowed confusion and raises questions about what will happen in the next pandemic.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Masks were required in pubs until 24th January 2022 - after we had experienced a massive infection wave and the government rightly recognised they were completely pointless. And are you suggesting we put cameras in everyone's home and force us to mask at all times? Because we are talking about the real world here, not some controlled experiment.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Eh, that's not what you were asked to show. And the subheading doesn't establish any of your previous claims.

    This is what the article says:

    On the science front, questions remain about how much of COVID-19 transmission is airborne

    This is what you are falsely claiming it disproves:

    Droplets are not the primary method of transmission

    You are deliberately misrepresenting the contents of the article with intent to mislead.#

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭Spudman_20000


    Great to see some actual real questions being asked. Only took almost 3 years.

    Personally can't wait to see the "oodles of data" they produce to prove their effectiveness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Don't Chute!


    I won’t be wearing one. I fell for the fear and intimidation tactics once but won’t fall for it again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,659 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Masks were never required in pubs, ok you had to wear it for the 5 minutes in the jacks but never when actually at a table drinking or eating, again, obvious reasons!

    I am in no way suggesting we should spy on people's personal homes but it's a fact that the main transmission locations were the home and the pub, places where mask mandates were not in place

    Fair enough but will you do that by actively breaking the law or just not go anywhere that requires a mask? Not judging, just wondering if you have a plan in this respect?



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Masks were required in pubs and you were only allowed to take them off for drinking or eating. Another poster dismissed a Nature article on how the WHO failed to acknowledge that COVID was airborne. Jesus the denial is strong .... follow the science ... What a joke. Just be honest and admit it's a religious belief. Just like the Aztecs sacrificing their children for a good harvest or the Easter Islanders building those big heads. They said too that it worked despite the real world showing them it didn't.

    Literally millions infected last winter and people still claiming they work. Yeah, just like rosary beads and tinfoil hats work.

    It would be like claiming seatbelts work if thousands of people were launched through their front windscreens every year while wearing them.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    They have nothing so they cling to "but droplets"...

    Completely failing to address simple fact that mask in this "but droplets" sense actually work for minuscule amount of time with hardly measurable benefit. The more you breath and cough and sneeze into it it just concentrate those magical virus laden droplets and they get pushed out with every subsequent breath cough or sneeze. But you know... Droplets...



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Can't understand it. I think this best sums up the mentality :




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    I know. It is sometimes hard to follow simple logic. People these times talk about science instead of trying to think. I had mask on couple times last year when it was "mandated".

    Mask become wet within minutes from just breathing particularly when it is cold. When you sneeze or cough through such mask well... We all know what happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Writing for today's Indo, John Downing fears masks will be back in public places before long but he insists it's not all doom and gloom.

    'The combination of vaccinations and previous infections means we're going into this winter with a higher level of antibodies to protect us from the worst effects of Covid-19. Happily also, the hospitals have better medicines and more beds to care for people who are hit by the virus. The question of flu may be less positive.

    After two years of reduced contact and masking, our immune systems are more susceptible to infection in that sector. Some gloomy prophets suggest it could make for an explosive mix with the still-circulating Covid-19, even though the "ologists" insist that one is heading for the gate.'

    Do those people who think masks should still be mandatory not recognise the fact that restrictions have made us more likely to become seriously ill when we get the flu?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Where is it stated as a 'fact' that they are more likely to become seriously ill when we get the flu?

    There may be a concentration of cases that would otherwise have hit over the course of several years. Unclear how that is going to cause more serious illness. There were also many serious illnesses avoided in that period.

    A child who would have been exposed to flu at 4, now gets exposed at 5. How does that cause a more serious illness? Sounds like the opposite would be the case to me.

    There may be some limited protection from previous flu infection into the next year, which we don't have because flu was suppressed by masks and other restrictions - is that what is meant by 'more susceptible to infection'?

    But flu vaccines are rolled out annually because the strains year on year change so much, so this year on year protection must be limited.

    There was big uptake in flu vaccine last year, so that's a significant section of the population whose immune systems were challenged by a (weakened) strains of flu.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Apparently it was put to the WHO that their turnaround on masks in summer 2020 was as a result of political lobbying and they did not deny it. This from BBC health correspondent at the time Deborah Cohen.

    Of course that is not the same as agreeing that was the case. Many lab-based studies on masks have been conducted (some with funding declarations that should be looked at closely), and many politicians named and shamed for profiting from awarding contracts to mask manufacturers (German politicians most prominently, and Priti Patel closer to home), and lobbying for mandates.

    But my main question is, are there studies out there on a population/country level comparing the effect of mask mandates, ffp2 mandates (Austria and Germany), and no mask mandates, on number of cases? Over a period of a year/half-year? Maybe there are two many factors to consider - reporting, testing, compliance…It’s easy to say ‘but cases would have been much higher were it not for masks’, but that’s lazy.

    Take Ireland v Austria (both stringent in testing and for restrictions), when our mask mandate was removed end of Feb 2021, we had 200,000 cumulative cases approx. (many more in reality), and Austria had 400,000 (likely many more too in reality) - why is they not a bigger discrepancy? And their ffp2 mask mandate ran to until June 21. They have a population of 9 million and we have 5.

    Surely by now countries that had mask mandates in place can point to others that did not, and show evidence of effectiveness?

    But it seems to be just modelling showing how many were spared on account of mask mandates, and those models are incorporating lab findings on mask effectiveness, hence not real world evidence.

    For me the studies that show mask effectiveness owe more to them being a visual prompt to distance socially rather than an effective tool in their own right (on a population level, but I can see the advantage of wearing a good mask individually if you don’t have much social interaction, work from home, don’t have children in school or college and perhaps live alone).



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    @Stormyteacup this is exactly my point. Ian Miller on Twitter has done lots of work on this. Interestingly no one else has done these obvious studies.

    When it was only Sweden there was lots of noise about their "Nordic neighbours" but now we have lots of other examples the "Nordic exceptionalism" motivated reasoning falls apart.

    Was in Portugal last winter for a week - masks were at a fanatical level there and yet they had huge infection levels anyway.

    Ironically people tend to socially distance less with masks as they believe they are protected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    On the subject of droplets transmission this recent study finds that infection is transmitted by droplets in normal face to face interactions..

    This is where masks can help reduce transmission as even cloth masks although not a fan of them myself, do prevent droplet transmission.

    And on the subject of pubs, and the mask mandate that was, people go there to drink pretty much continually, as well as eat and socialise. So masks would not be worn much except when people going to the loo or the bar.

    In these environments it would be nearly impossible to avoid aerosolised droplets which unless you are in an open part of the pub would be circulating in less ventilated sections.

    My personal opinion is that masks in pubs to protect people was pretty much a waste of time, except maybe to stop an infected individual coughing their way to the loo and dispersing aerosols, and that people, especially those who had impaired immunity or were vulnerable, were kidding themselves if they were drinking inside in a crowded, indoor environment like that, that the mask mandate in a pub or even busy restaurant setting would protect them.

    Best avoided totally or eat and drink outside if at all possible. ( which is pretty miserable I know in our climate during winter)

    Now that more have immunity through infection and vaccination it is obviously less of a risk to most people , but those vulnerable will always have to be careful. Whether that means another mask mandate or not, I don't agree that those environments should be restricted, not much point.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This is a mathematical model, not a study.



  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,530 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    soupandpoitin threadbanned



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭political analyst




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,659 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Masks were required in pubs and you were only allowed to take them off for drinking or eating

    What else do you do in a pub other than drink, eat, piss and chat? Unless you're saying you had the mask on between sips of you beer and bites of your dinner, if so then fair play to you.

    Whether it was droplets or airborn is irrelevant to mask wearing. Literally millions infected last winter here in Ireland, literally billions infected in territories where there was no mask mandate.

    In any case, Stephen Donnelly has said on NT breakfast this morning that the advice this winter is to wear masks on public transport, enclosed busy spaces and in healthcare settings especially for vulnerable people but crucially there will be no mask mandate



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I always point back to hospitals and care homes; in these places the masks were worn correctly and were of a high standard. Yet there was outbreak after outbreak in healthcare settings! As pointless as an ashtray on a motorbike are masks. Purely symbolism as COVID was not a deadly killer so at least with masks there was a reminder to people that there are certain public health restrictions and guidelines that should be noted.

    Nothing more than that with masks and arguing about their effectiveness is like agreeing the shade of brown on a turd.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    This is simply false.

    Outbreaks and healthcare worker cases went down significantly in Irish hospitals after masks were fully rolled out.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,458 ✭✭✭corcaigh07


    There is no data to say that is true. Stephen Donnelly says there's oodles of it but hasn't been provided.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It was posted earlier in the thread. Multiple times. The search is ***** on boards.

    The general point is that you must look at the overall number of cases occurring not just say, oh an outbreak occurred therefore X doesn't work.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,154 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    As noted, it was posted multiple times on the thread but boards search being what it is tracking it down again difficult.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Meh, and I thought that outbreaks in hospitals went significantly down when they emptied them and sent everyone to die to nursing houses. Also hospitals were ghost towns for most of the pandemic so hard to say what effect if any masks had on empty wards and corridors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Interesting but predictable, the media are starting to get the message that the vast, vast majority of people want absolutely nothing to do with masks.

    Eilish starting to get the message - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/freed-from-mandatory-rules-on-covid-and-with-winter-drawing-in-most-of-us-appear-willing-to-ditch-face-masks-42089613.html

    And then this; less than 4% wearing masks on public transport, the one place that they’re still being advised in. LOL - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/less-than-4pc-wearing-face-masks-on-public-transport-despite-government-advice-42089615.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Some UK COVID bigshot was saying that the old 2020 COVID that put loads of people in ICU is gone because of community immunity

    Sir John bell on the radio today



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Great to see, down to 4%, people continuously copping onto the fact that masks are a waste of time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Actually there is a source for that. One that is inarguable, first year report from HSPC.

    Number of outbreaks by setting. Clearly after masks were ‘fully rolled out’ - sometime end of April 2020 in healthcare, cases and outbreaks most certainly went down significantly in Irish hospitals. We might note they went down significantly everywhere else too.

    The rest of the graph is open to interpretation as testing was less targeted in healthcare after the first wave. In fact same document says;

    But personally I can’t pick out anything pointing to masks alone making any difference. And if you were to look at cases associated with outbreaks in hospitals well;

    So if Donnelly has evidence specifically showing that masks alone, not the end of a wave, and not distancing, significantly reduced outbreaks and cases amongst healthcare workers once testing was established for all settings - would be good of him to share it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭Spudman_20000


    Any sign of the "oodles of data" from Donnelly yet?

    Didn't think so.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    No sign of masks coming back anyhow



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Hows the tripledemic going?


    Warning over ‘contagious’ virus that could plunge Ireland into ‘tripledemic’ this winter




  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,530 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    patnor1011 threadbanned



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    What are chances of masks coming back for Jan/Feb

    Hospitals are creaking apparently with a triple whammy of viruses

    If they do it's the thin end of the wedge they'll be back every winter when the hospitals kick up



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    Don’t really see anyone wearing masks any more on public transport. Get 2 buses a day and you might see 1/2 people wearing them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,665 ✭✭✭jackboy


    I have seen at work and in the local school a variety of viruses are raging through the population. Bad doses but manageable for the healthy. However there are enough vulnerable in the population to overrun our unprepared health system. Things could get very bad in the next few weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭mikeybhoy


    Seeing more people wearing masks around lately again and surprisingly younger people too mostly women. Maybe it's a fashion trend.



  • Registered Users Posts: 459 ✭✭Coolcormack1979


    And all them billions that the hse get and there still unprepared.there’s the problem and not bloody covid



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Looks like it's all slowly being conflated now as feared

    What 15 in ICU "with" COVID

    Well soon be masking up every winter to protect the hse



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