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Northern Ireland is now Catholic Majority

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Just like sexuality, autism and many other isms and itys, nationality is a continuum with many varieties and variances.

    That is one lesson that Putin is learning the hard way. He saw Ukrainians as essentially Russians in a different country, but the reality of the resistance to the invasion should teach him differently. Sure, many Ukrainians might have looked fondly as Russia, may have felt partly Russian but they were also Ukrainian.

    The black and white approach - everyone on this island is Irish - is outdated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The reality of different institutions of State from courts to police, from education to health, and democratic institutions both local and devolved have to be recognised in any future arrangement. The cost of change, on top of all the other costs, is too high. That is why I am convinced some form of federal solution is the only way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    I suggest you read my post above in response to ItTakesTwo before addressing any further absolute non-sequiturs like this in my direction, Blanch.

    Precisely what this has to do with a comment on the democratic deficit in NI/the wider UK, I have no idea.

    Given that I have a track record here of firmly defending those with a British identity and wishing that it be protected in a United Ireland (just not through continued partition), and given that I'm someone who is both Irish and Northern Irish so I understand full well that culture and identity exists on a spectrum, the insinuations of your post are verging on the offensive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I quoted the wrong post, I was actually agreeing with your previous post.

    Not every time do I disagree with another poster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    You're trying to have a black and white discussion about a conversation that exists entirely in shades of grey.

    Will a person from Derry have a similar culture to a person from Antrim but not Donegal? Of course not; the many cultures of the British and Irish Islands all have far more in common than they have apart. The logical continuation of your argument would be that because a person from Scotland and a person from Ireland may have cultural similarities that neither culture exists distinctly.

    Are there aspects of shared culture between someone from Derry and someone from Antrim that aren't shared by someone from Donegal though? Absolutely there are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 815 ✭✭✭kazamo


    I disagree, creating different systems just creates confusion and while well meaning, merely prolongs the them and us situation.

    I am also hugely concerned about the cost of this UI aspiration, but if we continue with Stormont, do you really believe the Unionist politicians will bother showing up in the renamed House of Parliament on Kildare Street.

    in 1922 we faced the same issue and we moved away from the British model.

    As for a federal solution, if that’s the route, then it can’t stop at just 26 and 6, it needs to broken down further into probably five federal entities, with more administration, cost and confusion ……..and to what end. Would each entity have its own parliament as well.

    We are not big enough and certainly nowhere near organised enough for this to work.

    Last year I looked into the Property Tax and how they divvy that up……that’s a complete dogs dinner they made of that. If we can’t get one simple tax heading right, look at the confusion we could do with a federal solution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    It is your last paragraph that interests me. Excluding any commonality from being from the same 1921 man made boundary line what is the unique culture that only people from the 6 counties have. I honestly cant think of any. Any culture seems to be a subset of irish or British culture but nothing unique to just the 6 counties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Irish Traveller culture is a subset of Irish culture, do you dispute their distinctiveness?

    Gaeltacht culture is a subset of Irish culture, do you dispute their distinctiveness?

    People follow the Northern Ireland soccer team, that is a distinct element of Northern Irish culture separate from any aspect of Irish or British culture.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    We wouldn't be creating different systems, the different systems already exist, and in some cases, e.g. second-level education, are almost impossible to combine into one.

    The easiest and cheapest way to a united Ireland is through a federal path using existing entities.



  • Registered Users Posts: 815 ✭✭✭kazamo


    Keeping different systems doesn’t make us united



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    I'm assuming you never lived in NI then?

    There are lots of small differences that viewed in isolation could just be put down to, your, 'Dublin versus Cork but still Irish' dismissal, but collectively the amalgamation does create something unique. For Christ's sake, you animal's don't even have a soda farl with your fry up.


    While anecdotal, I've had many occasions where I've met someone long enough gone from NI to lose the accent but I can pick up within a few minutes of (entirely non-political or geographical) chatting that they're from the North, phraseology, points of reference etc etc.

    If one was to take your reductionist view to it's extreme, then an awful lot of distinct cultures would just be dismissed as just a subset of X and Y.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    I missed this initially, Blanch....but are you suggesting that the perpetual cost of duplicating all of these services indefinitely is lower than the one off costs of integrating them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    No and no to your two questions.


    Last paragraph. Following the football team that represents where you live is not unique culture. Unless the sport originates from that culture you cant argue it is unique to it. The only sport that ordinates from NI is GAA by the fact it originates in Ireland. Ie a subset if irish culture.


    Most countries are set up to give a nation a sovereign jurisdiction. The UK is made of nations. No disputing english Scotish and Welsh are nations but NI is not. It was not set up to give a NI nation a jurisdiction and did not pretend to either. It was simply splitting the irish nation on do you wont to be in or out of the UK and coming up with a gerrymandered boundary line on that basis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Northern Ireland is recognised by FIFA as a sovereign nation, do you recognise that?

    Northern Ireland has a team representing the nation in soccer, that is an undeniable fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is not one-off costs to integrate them, there are perpetual costs of integrating them. If you overnight increase social welfare rates to the highest level in each jurisdiction, you have those costs for ever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    You said, 'courts to police, from education to health, and democratic institutions both local and devolved', Blanch. Not a single mention of social welfare rates. Are you arguing that your idea of a federal not-exclusionary United Ireland will have an inherent two tier society where those who happen to have been born and live in the formerly occupied part of the country are entitled to different benefits and welfare just because of that? Doesn't sound much like the inclusive utopia you keep pretending it is.

    You're a fierce man for demanding costed numbers from people. Can you tell me what the recurring costs would be from integrating courts, police, education, health and demographic institutions both local and devolved?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    Where are you going now? Yes the Irish football association is a member of fifa. Note it is the "Irish football Association" and not the "Northern Irish football Association" that represents football in the north. Kinda further proving the point that Northern Irish is just a subset of Irish by bringing up the football team.


    Fifa was actually the one who made the IFA use "Northern Ireland" in international football as both the IFA and FAI used the name "Ireland" to represent their teams untill 1950's which was too confusing. Fifa ordered the IFA to use Northern ireland and the FAI use the Republic of Ireland. You might also note NI play in a green and white kit.

    Post edited by ittakestwo on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    So you are saying that Northern Ireland has been common parlance since the 1950s, and while FIFA may have pointed out the difference, that was 70 years ago, plenty of time for a culture to develop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Unless you decide that one or other police force, teachers, nurses etc. take pay cuts, then there will be a recurring cost from the increases in pay due to the ones that have their pay increased.

    A federal state lets this happen over years rather than overnight.

    I have put forward costs on a number of occasions over the last decade. I costed the increase in child benefit and the cost of paying teachers, as there were numbers available for both at the time. If the discussion ever gets serious, I will be happy to supply a very long list of areas where there will be costs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Let's be very clear, Blanch....your suggested, 'inclusive' NI not only involves a second tier society where benefits are lower, but also lower pay for those who have the audacity to be born in the formerly occupied counties?

    Your inclusive society reckons that a nurse in Cavan should be paid more than one a few kilometres up the road in Fermanagh? That a teacher in Belfast should be paid less than one in rural Carlow?

    You've a neck like a jockey's b*llocks to be pulling your exclusionary moan on anyone.

    My idea of a United Ireland doesn't involve creating a system that inherently pays those from a British/Unionist background worse for doing the same job.

    Eith your confidence that you can provide numbers, I'd love for you to provide some comparative numbers for example for bringing former PSNI officers up to the same pay scale as Gardai.....versus duplicating senior leadership, administration, IT, Finance, HR etc etc in two separate organisations. Given that the majority of pay increases would go to rank and file, versus your system that duplicates entire back office and senior leadership functions, I doubt the numbers land anywhere near as convincingly as you suspect. You've put about as much thought into this as a pisshead on the back of a fag packet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I have been involved in a number of public service back office consolidations. They rarely save money, which is a point I have constantly made throughout my time. They do improve service though.

    Take HR, for example, what back-office savings do you think you can make by combining HR? The potential is very limited.

    The savings will only really come at the very very top, but they will be more than offset by increases in the ranks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    You've completely ignored the point that you're advocating for a two tier society while having the gall to accuse others of being exclusionary. You've taken a more exclusionary position than absolutely anyone on this thread and seem to be totally lacking in self awareness.

    I'll also note the post I quoted contains zero numbers, or indeed any evidence of any sort just your own gut feeling and supposition that of course just happens to support your preconceived ideological position.

    Funny that you'd ask about what savings are to be made by combining HR. Anecdotally, my own company completed the acquisition of a smaller company last year and we're currently in the middle of amalgamating the HR function of the acquired business into ours. Almost 50% of the new HR capacity is in the process of being repurposed elsewhere within the business because, as will surprise no one bar those trying to push their own agenda, it takes fewer people to do a job when you don't have two people doing the same overlapping task. We're also making a significant number of per capita savings across the business due to economies of scale factors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Doesn't work like that in the public service.

    Supposed to save €12.5m a year, there have been huge costs as a result of the centre to fail to understand local conditions.

    Large company taking over smaller company can leave to savings, but the larger the bureaucracy as in the public service, the more likely that inefficiencies of bureaucracy will actually increase costs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You are making an assumption that public services, benefits and pay rates are lower across the board in one jurisdiction versus the other. I know that this is a common assumption of the "failed state" posters, which I don't include you in. The reality is that there are huge differences between the jurisdictions and I don't think that there is a single person advocating that any public service, benefit or pay rate should be reduced as a result of a united Ireland. This has two implications. Firstly, there can only be upwards harmonisation. Secondly, following on from the first point, there will be significant costs associated with this.

    So not suggesting a two tier society, I am recognising the huge costs associated with upwards harmonisation. The only alternative is that someone will see their social welfare benefit, public service or pay rate reduced.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    If public services are run that poorly, all the more reason for wholesale reform.

    If the pointless bureaucracy is leading to inefficiencies then we need to get rid of the pointless bureaucracy, not propagate it by doubling down by implementing TWO systems and creating even more bureaucracy.

    Beyond, 'well it has always been that way' excuse making, there is no reason that a well run public service can't utilise the same efficiencies of scale that a private company can (in fact given the numbers, it should be much better able to do so), and no reason that a large public sector amalgamating with a smaller public sector can't make the same savings that a large private company amalgamating with a smaller private company can.


    The thing is that public service pay is almost universally lower in one jurisdiction versus the other. You're just trying to deflect by suggesting that the upwards harmonisation costs would be anything but almost entirely towards NI. You can dance on the head of a pin all you want, but the fact of the matter is that as I said, you're arguing that a nurse in Cavan should be paid more than one a few kilometres up the road in Fermanagh and that a teacher in Belfast should be paid less than one in rural Carlow.

    You are not just recognising the huge costs associated with upwards harmonisation, you're actively advocating for maintaining a partitioned system to avoid that cost. It's your prerogative if you want to take that position, but at least be honest about it. You're advocating for a two tier system where someone in the six formerly NI counties is paid less, not based on merit, productivity, relative cost of living or any other factor but that their particular county was under British rule more recently than yours.

    For the record, I don't think that all harmonisation should be upwards; particularly at upper levels we have a great deal of public sector bloat in both states and a need for substantial reform. I'm fully aware that my position would of course be a chill factor for some voters, but this is something I'd advocate for with or without Unification.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    The south has no natural resources over the north yet it is far richer in terms of GDP. Do you ask yourself why one part of Ireland is richer than the other for no apparent reason?


    The reason is because the south wins a huge amount of FDI from multinationals. The main reason they come here is because of our low corperatation tax. The EU have confirmed that should there be a UI then it will have the same terms as the roi as does now in the EU. Ie able to have a more competitive tax rate. There is no reason why the north wont "catch up" with the south soon after a UI


    Why will the1.9m people that live in one part of Ireland perpetually run a €12bn annual defcit after a UI but not the an equivalent sized population on another part. The whole economy will harmonise after a UI. Aot of people from the north are already beginning to take higher paid jobs in the south. The new WFH concept will probably increase this too.


    There will be a one off cost in setting up an all Ireland structure. The cost will be be off set by the fact that none of the UK national debt will be given over with NI according to most economists. London will be happy just to get rid of a 12bn annual burden without demanding it takes some of its debt too so a UI debt to GDP will initially fall as a result allowing some room for a one off payment to set up UI structures.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,571 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The EU have confirmed that should there be a UI then it will have the same terms as the roi as does now in the EU. Ie able to have a more competitive tax rate.

    Corporation tax rates are not an EU competency so this is obvious. There are countries in the EU with a lower rate than Ireland, so I wouldn't even say it is the "main reason" - though at this stage there is of course a domino effect.

    The general point is right though, there is no reason to assume the economy in NI would not at last be on a trajectory towards that of Ireland. However, the experience of Germany also tells us that this can take decades.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    I don't think it would take as long as Germany. First of all Germany was uniting the first world west Germany with the second world East Germany. The gap between them in terms of wealth was far higher than the north and south Ireland. Also Germany is far larger than Ireland. Alot of NI population live in what is considered a border region as it is within 25km of the border . People can easily and are going to the south to work. This not the case in Germany where the major cities like Berlin and Dresden were over 150km from the border. One of the main reasons why NI has preformed better than other parts of the UK since brexit is not because of the the NIP. It is the fact that the south is dragging them up. Belfast is closer to Dublin than Cork Galway Limerick and Waterford city.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18 Bernie138


    yeah, 'cos that's going SO WELL in Stormont.....



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