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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    That Tweet is not entirely accurate, I posted about it yesterday (see below), they have been voted out of the Tier 1 group of the ICAO, they may still get a place on the Tier 3 group for geographical representation.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭rogber


    Oh here we go again. I don't know which rumour has been posted more in the last 7 months: that Putin has untreatable cancer or Belarus is about to enter the war. Can we just stop posting these crap links?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,268 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Ukraine application to NATO is a red herring. They know it can't be accepted even down the road.

    The fact is the country is partitioned and so would always be on the precipice of war until Russia is cleared out of these regions and Ukraine had secured them.

    Crimea is a catastrophic example of this. I don't see Russia ever giving up Crimea. It's too strategically important. I reckon they'd lash out but hold their noses if evicted from the other regions. I think they'd use weapons of mass destruction if Sevastapol was under imminent threat of falling.

    NATO would have to intervene directly to protect it's member so Russia would be in direct conflict with NATO.

    That's just not going to happen. It's too dangerous.

    The best case for Ukraine is continued proxy support.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,883 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Russian agencies attack key IT systems in Montenegro

    Montenegro: Russian diplomats expelled amid spying suspicions

    Fourteen people were found guilty and sentenced in Montenegro for a plot to overthrow the government in 2018. Those convicted included two alleged agents of Russian military intelligence. Prosecutors believe they were trying to stop the Balkan country's membership in NATO.

    Russia trying the Ukrainise stuff on them wasn't well received, and it's still ongoing, even as of two days ago.

    That list seems to be rubbish. Canada is onside as well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,883 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Stop gatekeeping. No one asked you or cares about your triggers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Ukrainian military in Torske, east to Lyman, next stop Lysychansk, Lysychansk is a city in the Sievierodonetsk 

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,883 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    IMG_20221002_141832_125.jpg

    Torske Photo of fighters. We are waiting for official confirmation.

    And the juggernaut rolls on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭Asdfgh2020


    Russian troops keep getting encircled and pushed back/retreat etc…..is it not a sign that they are just gearing up For a massive new phase involving chemical/biological and nuclear type weapons in retaliation……putin is capable of anything as he has shown time and time again



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,880 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    And if every member wants to ignore that, they will - much like 9 states already have.

    But beyond that, the commitment to resolve disputes peacefully in the Study simply does not mean getting invaded makes you automatically ineligible. That would be the height of nonsense. Again, if Russian troops moved into Lapland, the Finnish accession would not suddenly be put on hold.

    The problem with suggesting it is some technicality that is stopping Ukrainian accession is that it suggest if they solve this problem they could get in (i.e. some people suggesting the apply "sans the 4 republics") which is deeply wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Lawlesz


    Stupid question... I've enjoyed reading the updates from the guys who know what they're talking about (special mention to greenpilot) for keeping us all in the loop. But how do things actually happen on the ground, realistically.

    When Ukraine liberate a town, what's the process? Are they traveling in convoy, inching forward and attacking from range while the Russians retreat? Do they attack from various arteries and roads into a town? Are they crossing countryside, farm and field in formation?

    We hear a lot about movements and front lines but I wonder how it is working in reality?

    Like I said, stupid question maybe



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,132 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Interesting thread on why Russia are losing so much ground in the area around Lyman.

    If you don't want to click, the answer is that Russia simply haven't bothered fortifying their positions. This is in contrast to Kherson, where the Russians have multiple lines of defence which are several km long.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,962 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Yeh, you're right. It's way off topic. 👍️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,883 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The Russians are probably keen to know all such details also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Lawlesz




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,222 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Putin uses nukes at any point, the US has leaked that sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet is one of the retaliation options. If that were to happen, it would make the message very clear: Russia have no control over the Black Sea with Sevastopol or without, when push comes to shove.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    And if every member wants to ignore that, they will - much like 9 states already have.

    9 states (10 now I think) can support the application all they want, but, there's a difference between several states supporting and all states consenting to change their own rules and invite Ukraine to join.

    And yes of course rules can indeed be changed (like for any organisation, group, Government etc), but it will require consensus from all NATO states, that simply is not going to happen.


    But beyond that, the commitment to resolve disputes peacefully in the Study simply does not mean getting invaded makes you automatically ineligible. That would be the height of nonsense. Again, if Russian troops moved into Lapland, the Finnish accession would not suddenly be put on hold.

    Why would that be nonsense? It makes perfect sense not to allow a state join when there is a dispute! Why risk dragging the entire NATO into a conflict which when it started was involving a non NATO state?

    If Russian troops invaded Lapland indeed it wouldn't (or at least shouldn't) affect Finland's application because they are now at the invitee stage and past the initial application stage, the Study deals with the steps before becoming invitees.


    The problem with suggesting it is some technicality that is stopping Ukrainian accession is that it suggest if they solve this problem they could get in (i.e. some people suggesting the apply "sans the 4 republics") which is deeply wrong.

    Yes they could get in if they solve the problem (as well as any other issues there may be) - as in resolve the territorial dispute, a "sans the 4 republics" solution would never be accepted (and I very much doubt Ukraine would even consider such application in the first place) by NATO, it isn't a viable "solution" to allow membership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,132 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Kherson region.


    Northeast. Direction n.p. Shevchenkovka-Zolotaya Balka (https://t.me/dva_majors/2808).


    The situation is critical


    Relevance at 17:00.


    Reliably.

    This just in. Ukraine did make an advance here yesterday, so something is definitely going on in this area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Good thread on Russia's Constitution Court approval of the annexations:-




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,997 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Going back to my law degree here, but I would observe you are misreading some pretty fundamental verbiage. A basic principle of reading contracts, treaties and legislation is that the words mean exactly what they say, and further, if the writing in question uses different words for similar concepts, the difference is significant.

    In this case, for example, note that it uses phrases including “are expected to” and “are required”. They have different meanings. A requirement is non-discretionary. Failure to meet a requirement is a disqualifying condition and is either met or not met. An “expectation” however is a statement of intent or aspiration and has more wiggle room. The writers of the document you quote are clearly capable of using the word “requirement” if they intend to. Therefore when they use a different term, they have a different meaning in mind.

    Similar for the contents of the study itself. Do not confuse a “factor” in making a decision with a “disqualifying condition”. The two concepts are not necessarily the same.


    The whole discussion seems to be overtaken by events anyway (with the US basically shooting it down), but I comment for precision.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Yes just like the attack on Kyiv was a feint, the Russians are just retreating until Steiner counterattacks and Putin's wonderweapons are ready for a devastating counter-strike.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,962 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    The Crimea will be a bone of contention in this no matter what. The main language is Russian, the majority of the people there see themselves as Russian, many of which were never too happy to be gifted to the Ukrainian SSR in the 1950's as a token of solidarity in the first place. Russia and the Russians of the Crimea will be very loath to simply back out of the peninsula no matter how badly the war goes in the Ukraine itself.

    As for WMD's whatever that form may take, that remains very much an unknown. I certainly don't see a situation where Putin employs Russia's nuclear ordnance, despite his posturing however. The results for his country would be devastating. If he firmly decided to use such weaponry, then more than likely his future would be a window with him falling out of it. There must be cooler heads in the Kremlin that have their lines they won't cross, especially over what is a ridiculous conflict with their nearest neighbour, the reasons for which many of them are probably still in the dark about.

    Right now the war is next door and is something that most Russians look at on the tele, much like ourselves. I doubt that any of them, apart from the most blissfully ignorant of such things, would be cheerleading a WMD strike of any capacity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,648 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    How could they, when they know that they and their family and everything they've ever known will be vaporised, if it happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,647 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I saw an interesting comment on Twitter today that using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine would render the battlefield inoperable even for Russian troops. They could always drop one hundreds of miles into Ukraine and away from the front but that would look for all the world like a terrorist act by a terrorist state.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,493 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think you're getting caught up on the "rules" around membership, which the members can change at their whim.

    IF NATO feel they can have Ukraine as a member without russia being able to retaliate against it or go no further, I've no doubt it will happen, they may neglect putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, or maybe just East Ukraine, but russia has shown it's weakness in this conflict, NATO will be emboldened by it.

    You only have to look at the drip feed of more advanced weaponry making it into Ukrainian hands as an example, what they are getting now would have been absolutely unthinkable back in January, russia have been shown to be a 1 trick pony with their responses (i.e. vague nuclear threats) and are in a very fragile state similar to the end of the USSR (conscription could end up being the straw), they will find it hard to navigate out of it unless the battle on the ground changes significantly.

    The main danger is a trump like idiot getting into power in the US and rolling over for putin again, but that seems unlikely, even for the GOP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,962 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    There's really no such thing as a "tactical" nuclear weapon. They are, all of them, weapons of such destructive power that using them means you deny the territory to the use of everybody involved. The only "tactic", if one could call it that, involved is mere spoliation which will contravene the most basic rules of warfare and would be viewed, thusly, as a war crime.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Thanks for that. This seems to have been a reaction by Russia to Montenegro applying for membership in the first place. I wonder why is it that Montenegro took that first step....

    Ok. I had a look at the wikipedia page of the country. So it seems that it was an initiative of the President, Milo Đukanović, who set out goals to join both NATO and the EU as a way of pivoting the country toward the west. The NATO plan "divided the country" especially since NATO had bombed Montenegro itself in 1999 leading to the deaths of 500 people. It linked to the following Guardian article as well that discusses the NATO ascension and the alleged coup attempt:


    Interesting tidbit in there is that NATO were keen to have Montenegro join as they would then control the Mediterranean coastline from Gibraltar to Syria (you could extend that even further and say they control it from Syria to Kaliningrad)



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,880 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't really want to drag this further along, but ultimately there is more than enough room for the application to be accepted if it was so wanted. Ukraine cannot get in if they "solve the problem" as ultimately that is not what is stopping them being accepted by all the countries.

    The EU would be a better example of a carefully litigated application and approval process, with their own civil servants to oversee it. NATO is far looser on purpose and is entirely a geopolitical question for the leaders of each country. The reason Ukraine can't join NATO is cause the US among other nations don't want them to at the moment. That's it. Same as was the case 10 years ago, same as will likely be the case in the near future - whether they magically stop themselves being invaded or not isn't going to matter.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,880 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The Crimea will be a bone of contention in this no matter what. The main language is Russian, the majority of the people there see themselves as Russian, many of which were never too happy to be gifted to the Ukrainian SSR in the 1950's as a token of solidarity in the first place. 

    A majority of Crimea voted for independence of Ukraine in 91.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,515 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭rogber


    Well I wouldn't expect you to have a problem with dumb, sensationalist, unfounded rumours being posted for the 400th time given the standard of your own contributions, but some of us would rather people posted either reliable sources for news or none at all.

    Post edited by rogber on


This discussion has been closed.
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