Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Twitter #Ukraine, but be careful of the alternate reality people there. Watch out for the mines too.

I don't think people understand the magnitude of what Ukraine has in front of it. Kherson has clearly been a complete meat grinder for both sides, we've seen no signs of the Russians cracking here. If anything, they've been reinforcing the area. Even if Ukraine can push them out and take Kherson city (which I do think will happen eventually), they still have the Dniepr river between them and the Russians on the other side. If they can overcome that and want to go into Crimea, only 2 roads exist and serve as a serious choke point if Ukraine tries to enter. Then you've got the borders of the DPR/LPR which have been militarised since 2014 and are likely some of the most fortified areas in the world. There will be no support of the local population in either Crimea/DPR/LPR either as most Ukrainians will have been left it already.

Nyt article no paywall https://archive.ph/Qgmw9

Archive.ph is very handy

Twitter and OSINT.

There is a tweet doing the rounds that highlights some "unusual activity" at Olenya airbase in Northern Russia. We are given the impression that something new is afoot. Here is the tweet:

However, for those who have watched RUS AF movements of Strategic bombers, such as the TU-95 "Bears" and TU-160, this is nothing new. It is from this base, Olenya, that many of the probing missions have been conducted, with regular flights sweeping down along the West Coast of Ireland, all with their transponders off.

Of course, Ireland does not have a primary radar, so it is up to the RAF to detect and deter any Russian strategic flights along our Seaboard.

Olenya is quite remote, in a heavily forested area, but perfectly positioned for the operation of such flights.

Looking at a satellite picture taken almost a year ago, one can see even more bombers present at the base than was indicated earlier this week.

Russias Airforce, while still very powerful, is not as advertised due to its training doctrine and the reluctance of Putin to commit large numbers of his valuable strategic forces to Ukraine. They are out there, Engles is full at the moment, 4 IL-76 AWACS are still on the Apron in Belarus and only in July, a flight of Blackjack were sent down to Venezuela. So why not use them? That is the big question. I have suggested why in earlier posts and it centres around their inability to fight an asymmetric war, something NATO excells at.

Then we have Russias only operational aircraft carrier. Used with disastrous results in the Syrian conflict and dogged with technical issues, it can now be seen tied up in Novorossiya and is essentially a building site, with work on it held up due to a raft of corruption investigations in connection to its contractors.

To those online warning that Russia has yet to unleash the full weight of the Airforce, I would say that this is not going to happen. The only weight we shall see referenced will be the out-of-shape pilots we have been seeing upon their arrival back to earth via parachute.

What exactly is visually confirmed here ?

Putin is looking for his end game. That could well be the case. He is losing badly and has no real hope of victory.

So far, at least four leaks in Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2 have been discovered, each at the surface resembling a boiling cauldron, the largest one kilometre across, and together spewing industrial quantities of toxic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials in the area in the days prior, Western intelligence sources have said. NATO’s North Atlantic Council has described the damage as a “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.”

 Russia is the most likely culprit for the sabotage, and Putin is likely trying to send a message: It’s a signal to Europe that Russia can reach beyond Ukraine’s borders. Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter. The Russian president is doing his best to hide it, but he is losing his war in Ukraine. The writing is on the wall.

as for the new 'recruitment campaign' of farmers and lorry drivers to be sent to war.

Independent Russian media quoting Russia’s revamped KGB, the FSB, put the total exodus even higher. They say more military-age men have fled the country since conscription – 261,000 – than have so far fought in the war – an estimated 160,000 to 190,000.

With all those farmers being conscripted it's no wonder Putin went and asked North Korea for a workforce that apparently has not arrived.

You might like to try https://www.bing.com/maps/ and compare it to Google, I think the satellite imagery is a bit sharper. Google's have nicer colours due to processing, but it looks like that processing has a cost.

It looks like some 4 of those overweight pilots were swapped back in a prisoner exchange in April, or thereabouts.

Seems to me that the problem with the Russian air force isn't a lack of aircraft, it's a lack of precision munitions. The video above shows a Russian plane dropping dumb bombs on Ukrainian positions around Lyman a few days back. These types of video of planes dropping such bombs and helicopters firing unguided rockets into the air are common. Russians aren't putting these craft a such risk because they want to, it's because they have to.

It's obvious that the Russian air force strength was for propaganda. Putin invested his resources in being able to have a headline number of aircraft available that sounded impressive, but neglected to invest in the quantity of precision munitions required to equip them. All fur coat, no knickers.

Over 60,000 orcs dead now.

Very good analysis from both of you. More discussion/commentry like this please!

Broad, sober and balanced article from the BBC on where things are as winter approaches. Puts a human face on things too. An interesting read for anyone interested in more than just battlefield statistics:

I'm always intrigued by Montenegro joining NATO. They stuck around in a federation with Serbia for 14 years, right up until 2006. That means they were part of the same country when NATO were bombing Serbian territory in 1998. Not only did they go ahead and join NATO after gaining independence but now they're in the grouping of the most hawkish nations when it comes to Russia (Serbia's traditional ally). Can anyone fill me in on what that's all about? Do themselves and Serbia still get along?

I think the population is 145 million so a pool of 25 million is indeed conceivable although unlikely to ever be realised.

Membership "requires" nothing other than every member state agreeing.

This is not true, there is no "fixed or rigid list of criteria for membership" other than the aspiring member must:-

1. Demonstrate that they are in a position to further the principles of the Washington Treaty, and;

2. Meet certain political, economic and military criteria as per the Study on NATO Enlargement.

Don't let the "study" in the title mislead into thinking that it's some academic or scholarly article, it's not.

So yes there is requirements for membership, the "open door" policy of NATO is not a blank cheque. Yes every member state must agree to membership, and each application is on a case by case basis, but that's subject to some conditions and every member state agreed to the Study on NATO Enlargement as being a requirement for membership, this was agreed subsequent to the 1994 Brussels Declaration, the Study on NATO Enlargement very clearly states that resolution of disputes is a deciding factor on membership.

Chapter 2, paragraph 29 also states:-

If that's not enough even NATO themselves states the principles of the study must be followed for membership in the appropriate section of their website:-

And

As you can see it's pretty clear there are rules for acceptance, one of those is accepting the political, economic and military criteria of the Study on NATO Enlargement.