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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,471 ✭✭✭rodge123


    Yeah maybe, it would most certainly prevent Putin using one on Ukraine.

    Putler would hardly launch a few to wipe out all Ukraine in one go and hence prevent them launching theirs?

    Is there some way to detect an incoming nuke in time vs a standard cruise middle of some sort? (Would tech needed to reliably detect this also need to be given to Ukraine?) So many coming in could they get it wrong and think Russia were sending a nuke?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,341 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Well the 300.000 mobilization is now up to 1.2 million in Siberia and other small ethnicity with the usual corruption of the leaders (who simply happen not to be selected...) and other locations while 6 000 will be mobilized from Moscow and 3 200 from St Petersburg (including people who protested it that ended up on the short list due to their protests most likely). At the same time the Finnish border has seen over twice and expecting over triple the number of Russians using it after the announcement. The funny thing is they fail hard in their logistics with a fifth of those numbers in Ukraine yet now they are going to support this number how exactly? Of course I'm assuming they don't expect to get the full numbers but even cutting it in half how are they going to get equipment for them (beyond giving them an AK47 and some mothballed clothes? I'm talking artillery units, food, ammunition, logistic support etc. to get them around)?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭fash


    To be honest, if Russia nukes Ukraine, all the world goes nuclear anyway. And Russia wouldn't be particularly happy with either NK or Iran being nuclear powers- it would make bullying them harder.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭fash


    Putin is more likely to use a tactical nuke (large bomb) rather than a strategic (city destroying).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,844 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Wasn't Putin warned during the early weeks of the war that the west also possesses nukes? I can't find that article anywhere but he did shut up for a while after hearing that.

    Biden said that even in the event of a nuclear attack on Ukraine, they wouldn't respond immediately until they knew which way the radioactive cloud was going. If towards a NATO country then they'd consider it an attack on NATO.

    I hope it doesn't come to that, I live in Warsaw and the government is already preparing iodine tablets.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I believe Biden has been talking about what would happen if putin launched nuclear weapons at Ukraine,I believe he gave vague warning about what would the consequences would be ,ie you might launch a nuclear weapon weapon but we might retaliate directly or indirectly with other means .

    Which is a smart move, he has no idea what the retaliation would be , leaving putin to think how far he's willing to push this



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    The iodine tablets are to be issued and dispersed in Eastern province's.

    Seemly it will be carried out by the fire services.



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    I don't think it came as any surprised to Putin that the west has nukes. I also don't think he cares about a 'warning' if that's what happened, he would have expected something. Also, let's be honest, who knows what Biden is even thinking half the time, the man can't even find his way off a stage after struggling the read the script on the teleprompter.

    If the west had not been interfering in Ukrainian politics for years and the Ukrainians adhered to the Minsk agreement instead of doing what they were doing in the east of that country it would not be in the mess it is now. There's no winners in any of this, least of all the people ok Ukraine.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Oh goodie we're back to it being Anyone But Russia's Fault. Been a while.Complete with inane Sleepy Joe reductions for added measure.

    There's one country at fault here. The one that invaded both times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,141 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Rubbish. The Ukranians adhered to as much of Minsk as they could given there were Russian backed armed groups in its sovereign territory.

    It is Russia who holds ultimate responsibility constantly meddling in Ukranian politics which escalated into trying to stop the EU treaty through threats of economic sanctions and then invading Crimea and sending forces and weapons into Donbas - all of which are violations of Budapest.

    Russia were in violation of Minsk which was signed by their ambassador. DPR-LPR contained Russian military after the agreement signed in clear violation. They never left. Ukraine complied with Minsk as much as they could do within their own power. Ukraine has implemented as much of Minsk as can reasonably be done while Russia still occupies its territory.

    https://cepa.org/dont-let-russia-fool-you-about-the-minsk-agreements/

    Russia is in violation of the Minsk Agreements. The deals require a ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign military forces, disbanding of illegal armed groups, and returning control of the Ukrainian side of the international border with Russia to Ukraine, all of this under OSCE supervision. Russia has done none of this. It has regular military officers as well as intelligence operatives and unmarked “little green men” woven into the military forces in Eastern Ukraine. The LPR and DPR forces are by any definition “illegal armed groups,” that have not been disbanded. The ceasefire has barely been respected by the Russian side for more than a few days at a time. 

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Also, the nerve in accusing "the west" of interference while bogus referenda are taking place, orchestrated by a foreign power. A foreign power now revealed to be committing war crimes - suppose that's Ukraine's fault too?



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    If you're referring to my previous post, it's not what I'm saying. Of course Russia needs to pay for what has happened, and what they have done, it just annoys that so many people have a selective memory when it comes to the bigger picture. Also, there are many things about this conflict that surely must make even the most brainwashed of people suspicious. One thing is; why the hell is there no front line journalism/news coverage allowed? Remember the Iraq war, Desert Storm, etc etc. even Vietnam had it. Is there something to hide? All we get is scripted scenes of what we are allowed to see. I live in the west and this is where I want to stay, but the hypocrisy and corruption on our side is sickening. As for Biden, he's a weak leader and inspires zero confidence in so many people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    Obviously you need to read up on the the history of Ukraine so you can understand what I mean about the west in Ukraine over the years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    I would take a huge grain of salt with anything the author of that article wrote. A US diplomat singing the NATO hymn sheet complicit in the spread of ideology. Of course he would say what he said, do you think he would call out Ukraine for their part in what was happening (that's pre- 24th February for the rest of you) If he was truthful he would have not only called out Russia for their failings in the Minsk agreement but also the Ukrainians as well as the US meddling in that country which was contradicting their own commitments from back in the 90s. A bunch of hypocrites.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @JL555 If the west had not been interfering in Ukrainian politics for years and the Ukrainians adhered to the Minsk agreement instead of doing what they were doing in the east of that country it would not be in the mess it is now...


    That bot speak for it's all someone's fault except Russia who are innocent..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,141 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Sigh. Predictably you cant respond to the actual points made which directly contradict your previous claim you attack the source.

    Did the armed groups disperse as per Minsk? Nope.

    How is Ukraine meant to adhere to the Minsk agreement then?

    Were you aware of this when you blamed Ukraine?

    If so, your post was an attempt at deliberate deception.

    Your posts are morally and intellectually bankrupt, factually wrong exercises in blame the west whataboutery.

    You're incapable of refuting the cogent main points.

    Russia violated Budapest. Russia and its armed groups made Minsk implementation impossible.

    Ukraine was freely choosing alignment with the West, and signing an EU treaty. That is not western meddling.

    Russia meddled to prevent that- more than that, in clear violation of Budapest they put economic pressure on Ukraine not to sign it.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,101 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    You in your own post that said it was because of the "West interference" we are where we are so yes you are saying it's others fault Russia had to invade otherwise why did you not say it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,101 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Replying to you excuse when someone challenged your posts of weekly trying to defend yourself that you are blaming other rather then Russia for the invasion but then going on to blame everyone but your beloved Russia



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    Some replies to your reply.....

    Sigh. Predictably you cant respond to the actual points made which directly contradict your previous claim you attack the source. ---- Terrible opener, on the offensive from the start. The source of that article cannot truly be trusted as he is far from a neutral observer and is heavily biased. I'm sure he is a very intelligent person, however due to his loyalties, the full story is not revealed in his piece, completely understanable given his position.

    Did the armed groups disperse as per Minsk? Nope. ----- You're correct, armed groups did not disperse, Russian nor Ukrainian.

    How is Ukraine meant to adhere to the Minsk agreement then? ---- Question not framed correctly, it should read: How are both countries meant to adhere to the Minsk agreement then? - Both countries have their own interpretation of the agreement, Russia wants the regions to be autonomous, Ukraine's interpretation does not allow for autonomy, rather a decentralisation with limited powers. The Minsk agreement in itself is a failure as a document.

    Were you aware of this when you blamed Ukraine? ---- It is true I blamed Ukraine, but Russia is also responsible, per my above answer and previous posts.

    If so, your post was an attempt at deliberate deception. ---- No deception intended on my part, it was just your interpretation of my post.

    Your posts are morally and intellectually bankrupt, factually wrong exercises in blame the west whataboutery. -------Dismissing my posts as morally and intellectually bankrupt is a feeble attempt to make you feel superior, and an easy out for you. In this case, you surely understand that this Thread is entitled: Ukraine, therefore it is correct to draw in the other potential causes of the current conflict that is going on in that country. Your use of the term, 'whataboutery' is a lazy way of dismissing those points and another feeble attempt at trying to make my posting pointless and ridiculous.

    You're incapable of refuting the cogent main points. ----- Not really, but knock yourself out.

    Russia violated Budapest. Russia and its armed groups made Minsk implementation impossible. -----Far too simplistic and deliberately selective. (maybe even deceptive perhaps?)

    Ukraine was freely choosing alignment with the West, and signing an EU treaty. That is not western meddling. -----Western meddling, and in particularly the meddling that was performed to oust the pro-russian president to have a nice western leaning guy in the pedestal in 2014 is what I was specifically referring to, you come across as a sm, art enough person, I truly thought you might have got that point. I will be more clear in the future so as not to confuse.

    Russia meddled to prevent that- more than that, in clear violation of Budapest they put economic pressure on Ukraine not to sign it. ------Of course they did. Nothing new in any country putting pressure on another to get the best outcome for themselves, if they can that is.


    Have a great night :)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @JL555 you keep mentioning the Minsk agreement.

    Which one there's more than one Minsk agreement.

    Don't seem to know alot about the subject at all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,141 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Your posts are contradictory - you can't keep your story straight.

    Your opening claim was that Ukraine were at fault for not implementing Minsk.

    You don't deny that the armed groups failed to disperse -> so your criticism of the author of the article rings hollow. You fail to refute any of the actual content of the article.

    How is Ukraine meant to implement Minsk if the Russian backed armed groups are in its territory and don't disperse?

    You can't answer this, so now you mention both sides have different understanding of the agreement and that Minsk itself is a failure! But you left that out of your earlier post. Why? Because it suited your argument to criticise Ukraine. You only mention it when challenged but I'm being deliberately selective? Nope.

    (a) Nothing new in any about putting economic pressure on another country - that is textbook whataboutery. You are attempting to diminish Russia's meddling with this line of argument.

    (b) And there is something 'new' in putting economic pressure on another country when it is a clear violation of a signed agreement with that country - which is the Budapest agreement. This is why the President was ousted - the protests started because the President was swayed by Russian pressure and did not sign the treaty. A treaty which has overwhelming democratic mandate in Ukraine. Another point you cannot refute.

    So you aren't acquainted with the basic facts of what treaties Russia violated or the scope of the treaties.

    In light of such established unilateral Russian pressure and interference, you have completely failed to substantiate your earlier claims about Ukraine, the West and Minsk

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Never underestimate how hard the similarly minded and simple minded will double down when things aren't going their way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,945 ✭✭✭growleaves


    McDonalds opening three new restaurants in Kiev. I guess they figure the Russian troops won't be back?



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    Of course there's more than, have you just discovered that yourself through a google search? Well done.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But yet you keep mentioning it,

    The first and second agreements were broken by Russia all well documented ,

    But I get the feeling you already know this



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    A lot of words and quite chaotic. What is your key takeaway for the audience?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I don't think it's simple minded. Think it's more that if you spend your days leaning towards a general anti-authoritarian, contrarian mindset that anything "Western" is tainted by interference or corruption, that mindset won't be shaken by something as straightforward as Russian invasion. It's a cousin to the same contrarian attitudes seen during CoVid and the sceptics throughout.

    NATO are clearly not a peacetime entity, that goes without saying; and in an ideal world would become defunct overnight if Russia become Just Another Country™. But if your world view pivots around a resting presumption of imperialism or chicanery from "The West" then there's no escaping that gravity well.

    What tickles me is that the faux intellectual concern nearly always (unintentionally?) patronises the countries these folk claim to stand up for. Poor little Ukraine, unknowingly stuck a pawn of Empire Games; they couldn't possibly want alignment with the EU. What would possess their little Slavic minds to wanna join the world's most prosperous, peaceful bloc? No no no no. It must be "interference". It robs Ukraine of any agency it has in its own destiny, just for some geopolitical self-loathing.



  • Posts: 443 [Deleted User]


    I don't want to drag this thread too far off topic but it turns out that people were right to be sceptical of covid lockdowns. New evidence is coming to light that proves how disasterous lockdowns have been on. Not just health care but on children's education.

    The video above talks about excess deaths caused by covid lockdowns.

    I don't blame people for not trusting the mainstream narrative from established media organisations, especially after the last 2 years.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Doesn't explain the last 8 years since Russia invaded and occupied territory of Ukraine.

    Same people different handles same nonsense and shite posted on the same pro putin threads



  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭JL555


    If you read my posts, you surely would notice that I mention not only Ukraine, but Russia and others, in the root causes of this conflict. Again, Feb 24 2022 and the months since then is the ultimate manifestation of many years of neglect by all sides when dealing with Ukraine, including Ukraine themselves. Primarily, Russia and NATO led by US have an awful lot to answer for. They could not care less about Ukraine nor its citizens, only its geographical location. Is there something wrong with what I just said? Surely it must be obvious to most reasonable people that this conflict is a lot more complex than simply saying: it's all Russia's fault, 100%. This is a crazy stance to take, it is unfair and absolves people of their accountabilities.

    If people are happy to grab their info from the likes of Facebook or twitter, BBC or CNN and not go any further except maybe RTE and the journal, then they're limiting themselves. There's plenty out there to research. I'm not trying to shut anyody down, or dismiss them as being intelectually and morally inferior to me just because I disagree with them. It's actually filthy behaviour and it's done on here regularly, and then expect you to get into a cat fight with them thinking they are the smart ones. I wonder does that type of tactic work with them in the real world when face to face with actual live human beings? Best of luck with that.

    Now I'm sure someone in particular is going to come on here and throw a 'whataboutery' jibe or something like that, well really...it's boring, immature and dismissive.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Mod note:

    No trolling tonight please JL555

    No off topic covid nonsense please Adversarial



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Moderation is not a matter for discussion on thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,031 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Right now this is an isolated incident but for how long I wonder? These remote provincial towns could always be relied upon to provide docile cannon fodder for Russian armies of the past.

    Warning, graphic content!




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,571 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    If the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon is detected in Ukrainian territory, it will lead automatically to a full yield retaliatory strike on Russian primary targets by NATO land and sea launched nuclear ballistic missiles.

    No it won't. The far more likely scenario is a conventional military response as has already been indicated by American officials. It will still be devastating.

    Post edited by Podge_irl on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,011 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Wagner Group will still take a punt on putting him in a penal battalion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,865 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Indeed and more likely in my view the result of any such attack on Russia is a nuclear response from what is left of the Russian military on Nato targets.


    Exactly as would probably happen if the roles were reversed.


    If anyone wants to argue against that conventional opinion they can present their arguments.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    In relation to Nuclear weapons, the key point is that their primary use is as a political weapon rather than a kinetic weapon. They are a threat and a warning. Their destructive power on cities is terrifying, and the size of the arsenals of the US and Russia is enough to cause millions of deaths and the effective end of those States, but the use of a single or a small number of nuclear weapons is very different.

    The main use of tactical i.e. smaller yield weapons is to target military bases, airports and other areas with significant amounts of military equipment or large build ups of troops. But these things can also be effectively targeted with precision guided conventional weapons. If Russia has shown an inability to effectively use precision guided weapons, it is not clear how effectively they can deploy tactical nuclear weapons. They would get better and cheaper military results by continuing their conventional artillery campaign (if they can), and/or using their airforce more. A tactical nuclear weapon used on dispersed troops would kill maybe a few hundred, injure a few hundred more, and would make an area inaccessible for a number of weeks (with longer term environmental damage). This would be terrible for the individual soldiers and the environment, but in reality it isn't significantly worse than the deaths and environmental damage that is being done by the conventional war. Certainly, it would not stop the Ukrainians from fighting for their country.

    In relation to strategic nuclear weapons, the Russians have no real reason to bomb Ukrainian cities. It would lead to massive deaths amongst a people who are considered by most Russians as their Slavic brothers, so it would be like if Ireland were to bomb Cardiff. That is aside from the fact that it would likely result in Russia losing China and India's support and for no real gain. The only reason for a strategic bombing apart from irrational motives (e.g. spite, insanity), would be the calculation that a strategic bombing with the threat of more to follow would cause Ukraine to negotiate. That's quite the gamble and based on what has happened so far, it is far from certain that Ukraine would surrender.

    More importantly, however, is the impact of the threat of such weapons. The threat of tactical weapons can prevent large build ups of soldiers and weapons. They are forced to spread out to avoid creating a tempting target. This in turn reduces the capacity of the Ukrainians to prepare and conduct large scale offensives. The threat of strategic weapons is also an important part of the political arsenal i.e. it put forward as a reason for Ukraine to negotiate and for Europeans and the US to try to intervene with Ukraine.

    If a single or small number of nuclear weapons of either type were used, there is a very real risk that it's military or strategic impact would be more significant than conventional weapons, but not so significant as to make any real impact on Ukraine's will or capacity to fight. As much as people like to believe that the risk of using a limited nuclear strike would result in disproportionate retaliation from NATO, the more realistic risk for Russia is that they would carry out such a strike, be condemned by the world (including China, India etc) but gain no significant advantage that could not have been achieved by conventional weapons. If they do this, the political threat of nuclear weapons will have dissipated.

    So in my view, nuclear weapons are being used to their maximum effect at present. Their political power would be diminished if they are actually used in a small scale attack, and it would not achieve anything worth achieving for Russia or Putin. And, of course, Putin knows this!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    I am still trying to work out what the Ukraine can do next in relation to the sham referendums. It will be interesting to see how the communities in those occupied areas react in the days ahead. Will we see an increase in partisan actions, that might be one way to test how Russia might respond.


    Dan.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,571 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I am still trying to work out what the Ukraine can do next in relation to the sham referendums.

    Continue ignoring them I suspect.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Nothing really, Putin will announce in a few days they Russia now ,will possibly attempt to take more areas knowing once their in it's now Russia,

    Ukraine needs a visit from from little blue men who can fly fast jets and bomb Russian positions 24/7



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,844 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Part of the Nord stream pipe has exploded near Denmark.

    Very interesting turn of events.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Will also be interesting to see if Russia pays the pensions, rebuilds the houses, staffs the hospitals, keeps the electricity running etc!

    Also if they try to conscript people from the occupied territories and press them into the Russian army, they might end up providing weapons to Ukranian partisans!



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Not sure what difference it makes, seeing as Russia hasnt been pumping gas for some weeks now!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,488 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    I don’t think the pipelines are that big of a deal. They weren’t being used. Russia wouldn’t sell and Europe didn’t really want to buy anyway. I don’t think it will be an escalation as the only person it benefits is Putin as he can go ranting and raving about the big bad West destroying unused pipelines to try and get the Russian population sign up to fight.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,341 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Already done in regards to conscription and they are used as cannon fodder by the Russian forces since pretty much day 1 (in many ways I expect the new recruits coming in will be used).

    LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters.

    One of the people, a student conscripted in late February, said a fellow fighter told him to prepare to repel a close-quarter attack by Ukrainian forces in southwest Donbas but "I don't even know how to fire an automatic weapon."



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Well its different in Donbas where anyone still in the DPR/LPR controlled areas could reasonably be considered to be either pro Russian or at least not militantly pro Ukranian.

    But yeah, looks like they will try to recruit in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts:

    Risky move from the Russians!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,570 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Some videos on twitter of them counting blank votes.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I'm surprised they're even trying for a patina of legitimacy. Why bother? It's not like the rest of the world buys the sham, bar the Mick Wallace Quislings of the world. I had just assumed the vote would close, silence descended... then what-a-surprise! 95% want to join Russia, but please don't ask for the tallies.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Clearly spoilt votes would be the ones that voted NO. Add in the votes cast in Russia itself, and there you have it - overwhelming support.



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