NI Census 2021

Nah. Sure the "Irish" is only 29.1%.

You can't do anything without that block in the middle and they're going to vote with things like the NHS and the London subvention in mind.

No polling has shown anywhere near a majority for Reunification in the North.

Too early for a border poll on these figures but they show NI is finished if mainstream unionism can't learn to reach out. Neither insular nationalism nor unionism is going to decide the constitutional question, but rather the bloc in the middle which don't have the emotional connection of the big two blocs, and who tend to vote Alliance.

The historical significance of this census shouldn't be downplayed, however. Those who introduced the border into this country could have provided for a 9-county Ulster, but they considered that option too unwieldy since the numbers for Catholics and Protestants were neck and neck; in other words, like the current figures. They could have had a 4-county Ulster but regarded that as economically unviable. They chose 6 counties to maximise as much territory as possible while keeping the Catholics in check. Those who devised NI would be spinning in their graves at today's news.

9% drop in identifying as British is particularly eye-opening, and that's without the potentially tumultuous events occurring in Scotland, which may not even be part of the UK by the time the next census rolls around.

Is NI about to collapse imminently? No, but the cracks are there for all to see. Whether or not the fissures can be repaired is down to mainstream unionism. Will they try? On the evidence of the last few years, also no.

Wee Seimi Bryson having a predictable meltdown on twitter. How he has become the 'face' of unionism in the north and comes out with crap like this is an indication of how finished they really are

It is inevitable that there will be a United Ireland.....it has to be planned out thoroughly and not a mess like Brexit...

The conversation and discussion around what it looks like should be happening now....

Too early for a vote...but maybe within 10 years....an Independent Scotland will happen sooner and could move things along quicker...

Why is it inevitable?

If anything the younger generation seem to see themselves as Northern Irish rather than British or Irish. On that basis, far down the line, I could see an independent Northern Ireland. They'll have to sort their economy out first though and stop depending on handouts from London.

(I say this as someone who would vote for Reunification myself by the way)

That's very presumptive. Many of them see themselves as Northern Irish. They don't want to be ruled from London or Dublin. Their only hope of having their own country, in the long run, would be to reject a border poll.

Do we have evidence that a generation is identifying as Northern Irish?

They seem to have remained relatively consistent in number of the last decade with Irish and other (guessing people from abroad) being the only only taking a large leap. If the younger generation was moving towards Northern Irish identification I would expect them to be growing in numbers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1572880449923592193

British identity is in free fall in Britain as well.

There it only has strongholds in over 70s and immigrant communities.

In Scotland under 60s Scottish born majority voted for independence, non Scottish born and over 60s, swung it.

I'm not sure about the decades anymore, the way the UK economy is heading. UK Living standards set to be lower than Slovenia's by 2030! Brexit has changed everything. I think we can say with some certainty, that NI will not make it another century.

It is certainly a significant development. The primary reason put forward by Unionists for decades as to why there could not be a united Ireland was that Catholics were the minority. It's not necessarily a 'gamechanger' per se, but it does indicate that things are shifting in NI and that the union is on shakier ground.

That's interesting alright. Maybe the NI only segment are not as important as people think.

People assume almost that there is this post peace process group that see themselves as just NI and that as more post peace process kids grow up and become more identity conscious that number would grow.

But as that analysis shows not only has it not grown in a decade it has actually declined.

And also the number claiming "British and Northern Irish" has increased by more than the Northern Irish only has decreased.

So where is that increase in "British and Northern Irish" come from ?

Some from the"Northern Irish" and "British" camps ?

Unionism is on a death march.

They are doing absolutely nothing to save themselves in the long run.

I'd say it's a result of years of a brain drain, all the smart ones went to GB years ago for college and stayed there.

I would say Lizz Truss could be the Prime Minister to let Northern Ireland go if she secures 5 more years in their votes in two or three years time. The UK will by that time in massive debt as she is going all out to try and save British Business from the increased prices of Electricity and rising costs as well as ease the costs on British people too. She will keep doing this for as long as she can or at least untill the elections are called and then she will tell the British more lies and when she gets voted back in there will have to be massive cuts all around or the UK will go bust if it has not already.

She will sell Northern Ireland back to then gen just for some funds.

I hope to see a United Ireland in my lifetime but if not I am pretty sure my nieces and nephews will definitely see it as long as that Mad Man on Russia does not start WW3.

How about if they abstain en-masse in a border poll rather than lose it narrowly?

It would be impossible to then claim a mandate for reunification.

I think what the specific description of the future state would look like would make a big difference to the success or failure of any border poll.

Today's news (which i assume we all knew was coming) might just be the catalyst for the beginning of smart people beginning to lay out the various options and their likely consequences.

A snap border poll would be unhelpful and only harden moderate Unionists and possibly undecided non-sectarian voters, who are the ones who will ultimately decide this.

2 years???? Absolute raving. There is NO way any proper discussion or planning could be done in that amount if time.

I'm a nationalist, I'll vote yes whatever half baked pile of shyte they throw up in front of us.

I'm also likely in a minority in both states at the moment.

If you truly want any version of a UI to succeed then do it properly which isn't 2 years.

Otherwise you're just damaging it's chances of success.

Surely the 9% drop in "British only", the 7% drop in " British and Northern Irish only" is a concern.