NI Census 2021

Strazdas

It is certainly a significant development. The primary reason put forward by Unionists for decades as to why there could not be a united Ireland was that Catholics were the minority. It's not necessarily a 'gamechanger' per se, but it does indicate that things are shifting in NI and that the union is on shakier ground.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649650#Comment_119649650

Out of curiosity, why does the funding have to come from GB, EU and the USA, but no mention of the 26 counties.

If we are the net beneficiaries of a UI we should pay a good chunk of the money, rather than this long term goal with no financial commitment as we have currently..

We need to put our money where our mouth is.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650150#Comment_119650150

That's interesting alright. Maybe the NI only segment are not as important as people think.

People assume almost that there is this post peace process group that see themselves as just NI and that as more post peace process kids grow up and become more identity conscious that number would grow.

But as that analysis shows not only has it not grown in a decade it has actually declined.

And also the number claiming "British and Northern Irish" has increased by more than the Northern Irish only has decreased.

So where is that increase in "British and Northern Irish" come from ?

Some from the"Northern Irish" and "British" camps ?

Chips Lovell

It's gas that the unionists are dead set against the Northern Ireland protocol. Not only is there shortsightedness about the great advantage of being both still de facto inside the EU and in the UK at the same time, but also the shortsightedness that this economic advantage could be the reason Northern Ireland would never vote to change it's status. Throwing away the lifejacket.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650842#Comment_119650842

Unionism is on a death march.

They are doing absolutely nothing to save themselves in the long run.

I'd say it's a result of years of a brain drain, all the smart ones went to GB years ago for college and stayed there.

rdwight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264411/ni-census-2021

Sure, go for it Francie. 29.1% is probably roughly the percentage of Kherson residents who identify as Russian and it's good enough for Putin.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650908#Comment_119650908

I personally think they know the game is up and will burn it to the ground rather than accept that the 'protestant state for a protestant people'is gone, forever. Political Unionism knows it can leave (see Arlene) if power transitions to Dublin. It doesn't care about ordinary Unionists that I can see anyhow.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650842#Comment_119650842

It's not really. They spent something like 30 minutes making a decision on which way to support Brexit and to my knowledge, their main reason for supporting it was to go in the opposite direction to SF.

With this support for Brexit they painted themselves into a corner. By NI benefitting from the EU means that the people of NI will be happy to distance themselves from the UK's post-Brexit car crash. If the DUP supported the NIP, then they are only supporting greater separation from the UK.

However, with the likes of Foster taking the £1bn bribe to support the Tories & Brexit and their opposition to what the majority in NI want, they are ensuring that their political future is unlikely to have a long term outlook, and let's call a spade a spade, it's all because of downright bigotry, so good riddance to bad rubbish!

AMKC

I would say Lizz Truss could be the Prime Minister to let Northern Ireland go if she secures 5 more years in their votes in two or three years time. The UK will by that time in massive debt as she is going all out to try and save British Business from the increased prices of Electricity and rising costs as well as ease the costs on British people too. She will keep doing this for as long as she can or at least untill the elections are called and then she will tell the British more lies and when she gets voted back in there will have to be massive cuts all around or the UK will go bust if it has not already.

She will sell Northern Ireland back to then gen just for some funds.

I hope to see a United Ireland in my lifetime but if not I am pretty sure my nieces and nephews will definitely see it as long as that Mad Man on Russia does not start WW3.

For Forks Sake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650187#Comment_119650187

An independent NI would be bankrupt in half an hour

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650948#Comment_119650948

How about if they abstain en-masse in a border poll rather than lose it narrowly?

It would be impossible to then claim a mandate for reunification.

I think what the specific description of the future state would look like would make a big difference to the success or failure of any border poll.

Today's news (which i assume we all knew was coming) might just be the catalyst for the beginning of smart people beginning to lay out the various options and their likely consequences.

A snap border poll would be unhelpful and only harden moderate Unionists and possibly undecided non-sectarian voters, who are the ones who will ultimately decide this.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651215#Comment_119651215

A snap border poll should never be called. Like Scotland's independence ref - in 2 yrs time would be adequate.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650563#Comment_119650563

I would assume that a UI would require the resultant Ireland to be responsible for its own budget, and balance the increased cost of NI joining with whatever subvention, if any, comes with it.

Of course, if there is no funding coming from the three sources I mentioned, the UI might be a dream that never happens because we cannot afford to provide the level of funding the current subvention provides. By the way, we already provide some cross border funding.

If there are no promises of funding, the NI will not go for it, and neither will we.

Chips Lovell

Indeed. Even those turkeys won't vote for Christmas.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651259#Comment_119651259

2 years???? Absolute raving. There is NO way any proper discussion or planning could be done in that amount if time.

I'm a nationalist, I'll vote yes whatever half baked pile of shyte they throw up in front of us.

I'm also likely in a minority in both states at the moment.

If you truly want any version of a UI to succeed then do it properly which isn't 2 years.

Otherwise you're just damaging it's chances of success.

downcow

I don’t see anything to fear for unionism from that census.

what’s great news is that there are more RC than P yet there is no sign of a majority wanting Ui.

even SF could find nothing positive in it but to sectarianise the debate. Why are SF interested in religious makeup of ni - I think we all know

https://republican-news.org/current/news/2022/09/census_results_show_or.html

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651334#Comment_119651334

I don’t see anything to fear for unionism from that census.

Surely the 9% drop in "British only", the 7% drop in " British and Northern Irish only" is a concern.

realdanbreen

I hear on the news that the census shows that there are now more catholics than protestants in the North. Why this even makes the news is beyond me as most adults have outgrown the whole Catholic protestant nonsense years ago! Unionism,nationalism,loyalism, republicanism , most people couldn't give a flying fuk and just want to live their lives. Outside paramilitary thugs and political activists who live off division nobody gives a **** about religious divides.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651291#Comment_119651291

I don't see the run in being much longer as it will be destabilising if it is much longer.

That's why it is now imperative that the Irish government properly prepare and put a proposal together.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651334#Comment_119651334

If you don't see anything to fear for unionism it's because you have your head in the metaphorical sand. A united Ireland is going to happen, the only question is when. And this census indicates it's going to happen a lot sooner than many thought. Brexit has definitely accelerated the process and the demographics aren't on the unionist side either. A 9% drop? Just how can that be explained?

Also, as you are no doubt aware, Sinn Féin have not secterianised the debate. The censuses pre 2011 have only included religious breakdown and 2011 was the first census to include questions regarding national identity. Historically, the RC/P split was the metric used to predict demographic shifts in the future. It's always been recognised that a majority RC population would happen before a majority were pro UI, but it's a significant milestone* on the road.

* = 1.6kmstone. No harm in getting familiar with metric units early.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651388#Comment_119651388

The change in identity's is the big news.

It's just a historic milestone that Catholics have outstripped Protestants. It was the intent of partition that that would never happen.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651276#Comment_119651276

There will be a wall of Money from London to ensure what the English see as the foreign bit leaves the UK.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651400#Comment_119651400

Partition was 100 years ago. People were a lot more inclined to believe all that religious nonsense back then . Right now a good standard of living and decent prospects and services is a lot more important to people than whether it comes from Dublin or London or Brussels.

spuddy

The biggest news here is the fall in the number of people identifying as "British-only". The elephant in the room is Brexit, and the disastrous decision of the DUP to back it. Seems likely that "Irish-only" will be the biggest response come the next census.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651428#Comment_119651428

Agree. That’s why the only signficance of a ‘Catholic’ majority is the historical one.

The shift in identity is the more important figure.

Podge_irl

I don’t see a NI sos calling a border poll (and it is in their sole remit) unless the “identify as Irish” number is close to or even over 50%

i would also point out that for those who identify as northern Irish - Northern Ireland would essentially cease to exist in a United Ireland.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651441#Comment_119651441

The ‘British only’ is not really a measure of anything border poll related.

a decade or two ago I would def have ticked that box. Now northern Irish is up front for me. I am as certain to vote for Uk in a border poll as I ever was.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651392#Comment_119651392

I'd be fairly sure that by the time the next census comes around in 2031 there will still be a Northern Ireland.

But I am also fairly certain that at some point in my lifetime there'll be a united Ireland. I hope I have at least 60 years left in me, so there's plenty of time!

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119649839#Comment_119649839

I would hazard a guess that the resistance of the DUP to participating in an NI goverment with a SF FM is also having the effect of pushing those of an NI identity towards accepting the idea of a UI. These are the people who most likely vote Alliance and who are concerned more with the cost of living crisis, healthcare, housing etc. than BS around the NI protocol. A protocol that has been proven to be beneficial to the NI eceomony. A return to the EU as part of a UI could become a very seductive position to these 'soft unionists'. They may take a more pro-union position where the said union is one of a European persuasion than a British one.

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651291#Comment_119651291

It's likely by the next census in 2031 that there will be a sea change in the demographics of NI. We've 10 years now to prepare for a border poll IMO. And to do a good job of it. FG and FF have to step up massively in this regard and show some leadership, we can't have SF calling all the shots on planning for a border poll. Both parties need to start running candidates in NI elections too over the next 10 years. That's our window of opportunity to make a UI succeed. 2 years is mental