Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Not cheaper on average to buy in London, but if you look at apartment costs (which is where young folk would be looking) there is little difference in price, you are more protected from the various poor standards in Irish builds. The likelihood of half the apartments going to social is greatly reduced.

You get to keep more of your salary so repaying is easier

More bang for your buck, I think you'd agree

Yes and SF met with the Dublin Chamber of Commerce in February 2020 to give the same kinds of assurances. They will not turn Ireland into Venezuela 2.0 I don't think.

MNCs in this country are always threatening to bolt, its their basic negotiation position.

I agree with Villa on the social housing.

As an example look at this - https://www.primelocation.com/for-sale/details/61842244/?search_identifier=dc32ebe989bc87ab0fc3cca13b49c1c5

This has social housing but it is located in the building above the nail shop in the first picture, whereas private owner occupiers or LL owned property is in the main building on the left. The people in social housing don't have access to the gym, they get what is referred to as the "poor door". This setup is common in London and some developers have actually taken the utter piss to the extreme by locating the social housing in a completely different place. And those are the developers who were dumb enough to actually include social in the final layout, a good number get planning permission, start building, then turn around and say "opsie daisy we actually miscalculated and now can't afford any social housing". There's no comeback on this.

Going by the posts I have seen on here I would also predict that problem social tenants are quicker to be exited stage left in London than Dublin, but as I said it is based solely on what I have read here.

@Eclectic Econometrics

Can't comment on anti-social behaviour but my parents once had to evict someone for non-payment and it seemed to be done and dusted in only 2-3 months.

Just as ordinary struggling FTBs are at their wits end to get out of the excruciating rental trap - Tax Commission propose a huge increase in property taxes:

Local property tax revenues need to form “a substantially larger share of total revenues through the adjustment of the basic rates of taxation and potentially through an adjustment of valuation bands”.

The ability of local authorities to decrease the basic rate of property tax should be removed, the report says.

A Local Property Tax surcharge should be introduced for vacant properties.

And a site value tax should apply to all land not subject to the property tax.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/tax/tax-on-pizzas-and-other-processed-foods-and-new-electricity-charge-recommended-by-tax-commission-41988764.html

A recession doesn’t necessarily mean cheaper houses there have been plenty of recessions over the years that didn’t result in a fall in property prices. It all depends on whether there are job losses and what sectors get impacted. If it is a case that a recession results in business cutting costs such as overtime but people keep their jobs or if the sector impacted by job losses is not a sector that generates a lot of demand for houses purchasing then it is unlikely to result in a fall in property prices.

There is a massive skills shortage in Ireland and a lot of businesses are still bringing in staff from outside Ireland to fill roles. It is not just tech companies in this situation and it is across the board including financial services and manufacturing. Let’s not forget that the ECB is deliberately raising rates to cool down the economy because it’s to hot.

Thats not to say that they won’t over cook it and slow it down to much. But even in the US the job market is still hot despite signs of recession. The business areas that I see being impacted the heaviest by the energy crisis is the hospitality sector as people cut back on spending and think a lot of restaurants, pubs and shops won’t survive the winter because costs have gone through the roof and if they increase prices they will have less business.

For house prices to drop you will need a recession that results in lower immigration and higher emigration. I know that in financial services there are little signs of this happening and only yesterday I heard how recruitment drives are now targeting Asia and the Middle East in an effort to fill roles and find staff because the shortage is that bad. We’re also not talking about one or two roles but multiples. This pressure has resulted in massive churn with people moving jobs for higher pay.

The other thing to remember is that house prices may fall in real terms (inflation adjusted) but not in nominal terms. This is an important point because with inflation running at 10% a drop in house prices by anything less than 10% means that prices won’t fall in nominal terms but housing is cheaper than it was a year ago.

All your points are valid when house prices are linked to wages, but that's not the situation currently. Money printing, investment funds and state activity have priced out most potential buyers. Take for example property prices have reached there previous highs, rents are way ahead. Look at the public service, has the gap between new entrants from the crash and pre existing employees been closed? Those new entrant are today's market less pay and lower mortgages multiples

Was listening to the latest inside business podcast covering recruitment and there saying business want to recruit within the current pool as housing is too big an issue. In effect housing has strangled the growth in the economy. Its overheated and extremely vulnerable to an economic shock of which they are multiple potential causes out there right now. In particular IT looks vulnerable. From what your seeing is it predominantly the housed or unhoused that are leaving for higher pay. From the podcast it's 5 years experience there looking for

Most of our employment is in small business, one would imagine many of them could fold from the inflationary pressures. Many also had significant debt issues after the last crash, could these resurface in rushed interest rate rising environment.

Well, your health and your job are your two most important assets in that order and if there are considerable layoffs there will be a massive reduction in demand, particularily if those layoffs mean people leaving Ireland for one reason or another. That's a simple enough outlook mind but it's probably what is coming.

It will make it harder to get a mortage, depending on your circumstances, but it should effect the supply of houses.

I think that "trickle down" may have worked in the past, but it's becoming increasingly clear that consolidation of wealth is happening all over the world. Funny money is great if you're the first person to get it.

Hard to beat a Bertie budget. Pay rises and tax breaks for all. No quarry or bank regulation either. Go away and commit suicide if you dont agree with his policies. Bertie for president. Great lad and true patriot.

Look at the school transport fiasco, nothing learned from the free gp care. Same mistakes repeated over and over again to grab a newspaper headline. Populism at its finest

There is some leadership vacum all around the world.

Now were going taxing the bejaysus out of renewable energy, no effort to push demand onto off peak hours at reduced rates to prevent these renewable sources being switched off when there is an abundance of wind

We installed smart meters across the country, installing smart politicians is beyond us

Of course the politically correct crew say we can't plug in the washing machine at night in case it goes on fire. I'm sure the same crowd have been plugging out there fridges every night since the greenfell tower fire was started by a fridge