Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620544#Comment_119620544

Germany are shutting down their second largest steel plant.due to energy shortages. Can hou imagine fir one moment what that is going to do to the cost of steel n this country. It will decimate the construction industry. I dont know whats heading down the tracks but Germany is the industrial powe horse if Eutope, if they go under, we totally fecked.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arcelormittal-shut-blast-furnace-german-plant-gas-prices-soar-2022-09-02/

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119623413#Comment_119623413

Well what can one expect? We have have a system in Ireland, and the West at large, where those who make the decisions are utterly shielded from any consequences for their actions. The worst that can happen to a politician is that he or she loses his seat. For a civil servant, there is nothing at all except perhaps an early retirement.

Until the day comes when bureaucrats and politicians face severe punishments for misdeeds, Ireland will stumble from one disaster to the next.

jimmybobbyschweiz

Goldman Sachs, the vampirical squids, are predicting a significant drop in gas prices in the winter, perhaps a bit of a silver lining after 2-6 months of insanely high household bills come through from October - March, a silver lining maybe that could result in a short, sharp recession of maybe 6-8 months next year after those high bills obliterate many SMEs.

But then of course we'll probably have 3% interest rates.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia

Elsewhere, more "sky is blue today" news; again, I want to say that Ireland is a unique basket case with its housing crisis - do not believe other European cities are experiencing the same problems as us. They at least have supply, with the cost being the bigger issue in other places.

The French embassy warning its citizens to be very careful moving to Ireland due to the housing crisis, wow!

This news will be terribly damaging for Ireland Inc and a further movement of the lid of the coffin over the corpse of the MNC tax boon (the lid hovered over the coffin when the cash dried up in silicon valley, now our housing crisis will ultimately close the lid of the coffin).

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0916/1323685-french-embassy-warning-accommodation/

The French Embassy in Ireland is warning those who are relocating here from France, that Ireland is currently experiencing "a severe housing crisis" and that new arrivals face significant difficulties in finding accommodation.

"The strong demand and the saturation of the rental market have led to a sharp increase in rents, which are currently much more expensive than in Paris, including shared accommodation.

jj880

https://www.irishmirror.ie/showbiz/irish-showbiz/inside-daniel-odonnells-luxury-dublin-28001405

Daniel knows its time to get out! Now just needs some sap to pony up quick.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625036#Comment_119625036

This may be a strange thing to say, but the idea of NOT having a recession seems more worrying to me. Consider if, after winter, the markets recover and the looming recession/depression does not materialise. House prices willing continue to rise, mass immigration will keep on rolling and accommodation will become simply impossible to acquire, which is not good for anyone, save the slum lords and investment funds. Weighed against that, I'd rather take my chances in a recession.

The state has demonstrated that it has no interest in resolving the housing crisis. Indeed, I would opine that those making the decisions here are benefiting greatly from this mess, for how many politicians and civil servants are invested in property? Beyond that, if one is not trying to buy a home or find a place to live, an out of control housing market does really matter, so likely it is of no consequence to such people.

Realistically, however, whether there is an economic upset in the next few months or in a a few years, there will be one eventually. The longer things go on as they are, the worse the fall out will be.

PommieBast

@jimmybobbyschweiz

The French embassy warning its citizens to be very careful moving to Ireland due to the housing crisis, wow!

The bit that caught my eye is accommodation fraud. I am not one bit surprised because fibbing/timewasting/dishonesty are endemic in the A&P market. Other countries may be more expensive but they at least cut the chase and legally mandate a certain level of honesty in adverts.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625123#Comment_119625123

I think the horse has bolted. We are going to have a recession no matter what we do now. There is no way the government can cover energy prices for all people and SMEs, Inflation flying up on everything and if someone has to borrow to get through interest rates are going through the roof (this includes our government). Also with our open economy we will be more impacted in what happens to Germany, UK and the US - All 3 are in serious trouble. I can see a flip in emigration, tax take and unemployment figures in the next 12/24 months so demand is going to be emigrating, dole queues rising and income tax declining.. People simply will stop spending on areas of the economy they once did ....

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625253#Comment_119625253

Goodness, are you sure you're not propqueries? No sign of recession yet locally in Dublin, I guess once the electricity bills start to come in things may change?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625296#Comment_119625296

I haven't seen much to suggest a recession either. Some people have told me that they are worried, but the shops are packed every Saturday whenever I've been there. This is why I'm not sure that there will be a major recession in the near-future.

However, Fliball123 does have a very valid point when he (or she) says that Ireland is very exposed to international troubles. Germany is in a bad place with the gas supply, and the US and UK do have major issues to contend with. If the technology sector takes a dive, and there are early signs that it is cooling off, Ireland could lose a major source of employment and tax revenues.

None of us know for sure what will happen.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625296#Comment_119625296

Its not here just yet remember SMEs have only come off covid supports, people had a splurge for the first 6/7/8 months of the year with being released from their homes during Covid. September is always the month when outlook turns to a more negative outlook no matter what condition the economy is in for a lot of people the good weather is gone and the back to school costs are kicking in and people fix their mind towards the xmas.

So you see no signs of a recession REALLY.

So to me signs that we are going into a recession

Germany/UK/US all you have to do is a quick google to see the mire of sh1t they are in there is no way we will escape scott free from their issues we are too open an economy

Interest rates/inflation rising.

Construction numbers down.

Growth predictions are being revised downwards.

Consumer sentiment down.

Hiring freezes in the tech sector.

I just hope your not caught by suppressed come Spring/Summer of next year when things will have really changed.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625230#Comment_119625230

I was looking on numbeo there and the difference in rent between Dublin and Paris is staggering. Not only that, but salaries on average are almost as high in Paris than in Dublin.

(Don't look at mortgage interest rates difference as it will be too depressing).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625528#Comment_119625528

I have no idea why anyone would want to come to this country...

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625622#Comment_119625622

I've been told by foreign colleagues and friends that they absolutely loath Ireland. I even know a few people have left high paying jobs because it's just not worth it to remain when they must pay huge rent for bad accommodation.

However, if you're after the welfare and freebies, things may seem different...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625653#Comment_119625653

It really is a horrible place to live at the moment, no good news stories at all. And whats worse the Government don't care...

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625714#Comment_119625714

If you are coming from another European city, it must feel like a mix of the UK and the US, with little continental or Scandanavian European influence, with its grotesque hyper consumerism, car-focused cities and towns, homogenised shopping districts, poor environmental credentials and general inequality between renters (most immigrants of the last few years would be renters) and homeowners (mainly made up of the native Irish).

The economy has been propped up with an imported underclass which essentially embeds institutional racism in the country; all those English language students coming in and doing low paid jobs in hospitality, food factories etc., cramming into overpriced rented bedrooms in order to keep wages low and profits and rents high; the American neoliberal dream of which Ireland has attempted to replicate. The State has made little effort to give these people a real chance of making a sustainable and long-term life for themselves as it is expected that there will be a constant flow from the lesser developed countries to keep the whole gravy train going.

Ireland is closer to Boston than Berlin and I see why someone from Netherlands, France, Germany, Poland etc would find it poor value in terms of the quality of life provided. Affordable housing built en masse would've prevented this situation where the word is out that Ireland is now closed for business and represents poor value for money.

awec

The Irish really are world leaders at self-deprecation and self-loathing. 😞

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625055#Comment_119625055

Garth Brooks is taking advantage of the off season in Kerry and using his jet to avoid the car rental charges. Needs must!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626138#Comment_119626138

Don’t leave out, feelings of helplessness and blaming others.

Stomach churning at times.

Timing belt

Who is going to pick up the bill for affordable housing built on mass? The taxpayers.

The fact is that it costs x to build and proposing that someone only pays y (affordable) means someone will have to pay the difference between x and y otherwise property wouldn’t be built. No business is going to say less make a loss on building houses.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626064#Comment_119626064

I think it's less that the state made no effort to give foreigners a better chance and more that it wanted a large underclass of imported individuals. Let me be clear, I have no issues with immigration, but we have seen largely uncontrolled immigration with no consideration to demographics and pressure on services. The state has show no effort to address this, even proscribing proscribing its discussion.

Why did this happen? Well, it would seem to me that it suits a neo-liberal agenda to have a large block of cheap workers who double as rent cattle. The people came here to seek a better life, which I can understand, but they are being abused by the system. I have a number of Romanian friends who pay hundreds each month to share a bedroom in a crowed house. Many of these are well educated, multi-lingual individuals, and they are very, very aware of what's going on.

The people who run the modern Western states are simply not of the caliber of leaders of the past. They live in wealthy echo-chamber communities where they are shielded from the consequences of their own policies, if they even care to take notice thereof. I don't think that Ireland was ever an exceptionally well-governed state, but at least 50 years ago, those in charge were of a generation that had experienced extreme hard-ships. Today, we have a group of over-fed, underworked toffs who are selling and have sold the future of Ireland to keep themselves in pensions.

As I've said before, until these people face the music for the tunes they're paying, nothing will change.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119625714#Comment_119625714

Jesus the internet really doesn't reflect real life

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626222#Comment_119626222

Who picked up the bill in the 50s/60s/70s for corporation housing? The taxpayers.

Were those houses not built the country would have been crippled with poverty still.

Are there any countries with well functioning housing & rental markets, that do not have government building social houses?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626288#Comment_119626288

100% social housing is required nobody is arguing about that.

What I am pointing out is that people are looking for property at prices that are cheaper than the build cost and at the same giving out about government supports such as HTB grants and shared equity schemes.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626790#Comment_119626790

Ah ok - thought you meant social houses.

Affordable houses should really just be at-cost houses, doesnt make sense to try and hit a price below that. If you cannot afford cost price for the house, you should qualify for social housing or cost-rental or some such scheme.

Really social housing income limits should be vastly expanded, and many many more built. Eventually it would put downward pressure on market rents. The big problem of course is how to evict anti-social tenants, until that is addressed social housing cannot work in this country.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626138#Comment_119626138

Ain't that the truth. Global studies and rankings regularly put Ireland among the very highest standards of living in the entire world, and in most parts of the country towns and cities are buzzing with people enjoying life if you go outside. Everything isn't perfect or course, there have been huge global challenges affecting everyone from pandemics to climate change to energy crises and inflation, but Ireland is still coping comparatively well right now and it's a far cry from the picture painted by the misery junkies.

High housing prices are usually a side effect of booming economies and high standards of living, and that's been compounded by material and construction cost rises, just when things were ramping up after a pause caused by the pandemic. Nobody's going to wave a magic wand to fix everything but construction is still ramping up, costs are stabilizing and possibly reducing again, and we're seeing prices starting to level off to go with that. There are certainly issues with our planning system and regulations that are less than ideal, but no amount of government meddling or backing off will fix everything overnight.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626064#Comment_119626064

My God! The country’s not perfect, there’s no arguing with that, but it’s actually a great place to live by almost any objective measure you can find.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119626790#Comment_119626790

What model of social housing provision would you support. There's no denying that the current system is the most expensive for the taxpayer and in addition makes it more difficult for those that aspire to provide there own accomodation thereby increasing the pool of people that need subsidised accommodation.

Social housing provision, HTB, shared ownership and almost every scheme dreamed up are all inflationary thereby moving us further away from a workable solution

Villa05

Without mentioning the criteria Irish Times today

Bank of Ireland is preparing to make it more difficult for borrowers to secure new mortgages as it tightens up its affordability criteria against the backdrop of rising interest rates and living costs.

ionapaul

As an aside, I work in a company of about 35 people, almost all under 40, with a majority born outside Ireland; including people from Brazil, Portugal, Germany, America, Argentina, Korea and of course the UK. They all seem to like Ireland quite well, or least pretend! Not a single one of them is on the streets, despite relatively modest salaries in the grand scheme of things. I really, really wonder what kind of workplaces some of those posting in this thread find themselves in, where everyone (Irish or otherwise) despises this country and wishes they could escape - we must be holding those people against their wills somehow! ;)

Nugget89

What's the general feeling towards bidding online vs bidding privately over the phone. SherryFitz have this online system which lets you see bids as they come in, which seems like a great idea because of the transparency. But on the house I'm looking at the agent isn't using it. I don't know if that's a bit dodgy so that they can invent competing bidders.