Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629016#Comment_119629016

Who do you think you are Bazz Lurhmann, he did say trust him on the sunscreen.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629627#Comment_119629627

I do believe government intervention since over the last 20 years has a lot to answer for. Sometimes for a real economy to flourish it has to be reset. Creating QE by government intervention and propping up asset bubbles has done nothing bar create greater wealth divides which in turn create serious tensions and radicalism that can cause civil unrest when hard times come.

Government (admittedly the US) intervention is the reason we have had an unsustainable tech boom in Ireland. Unsustainable low interest rates and QE in order to manufacture GDP is the reason we have alot of the smaller tech companies that struggle to make a profit, employing a large amount of people in Dublin city centre. This is a disaster waiting to happen these smaller tech companies will up and leave in the next year as interest rates, share price falling and credit drying up will hit them bad. The bigger heavies will reduce numbers starting with contractors that may be employed by secondary smaller tech companies or individual sole traders.

This incoming tech bust will hurt Ireland very badly. I wouldn't be applauding Ireland for having a booming Tech sector or hub, bar low corporation tax and cheap easy money through government intervention it would never have happened.

However I would applaud Ireland for having a skilled workforce that could take advantage of this expansion.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630569#Comment_119630569

As I said your justifying your move abroad..that’s a natural thing to do….whether you realise you are doing it or not.

Comparing Ireland to Vietnam is hilarious and really does highlight how you wish that the Irish economy collapses so you can say how right you were. What will it achieve for you….nothing. You have made your decision so move otherwise your like a stalker that is still obsessed with his ex…life’s to short

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630718#Comment_119630718

Actually, all Lurhmann did was put the music to it, Mary Schmich wrote the column in the Chicago Tribune. Didn’t you know that?

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630798#Comment_119630798

Didn't know that atall, learn something new everyday.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630810#Comment_119630810

Baz thought he was Mary.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630783#Comment_119630783

It's okay to adopt a head in the sand approach, I'm sure you'll rationalize the impending, materialising risks that "no one saw it coming" and "it is bad everywhere" but unfortunately Ireland will be hit hard. It is in the PIIGS category for a reason; FF and FG have been declining in support for years for a reason.

What you view as me looking backwards and hoping for what will happen is what I see as looking forward and getting out while the going is still good.

McWilliams, I note, also uses the phrase in his article today (perhaps reading this thread) - winter is coming.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/09/17/david-mcwilliams-dont-examine-the-market-through-the-lens-of-the-last-cycle/

Roberto_gas

was shocked to know that a apartment 20 km outside of Milan costs 20% of price in Milan…risk of buying outside of Dublin currently is too much…with landlord politicians exposed the risk is multifold even in Dublin

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630582#Comment_119630582

Late spring 2023 onwards things will look bad until sometime in 2024, from an economic perspective anyway. Housing market will manifest a bit slower but it is already starting with commercial property, I'd say rents could stay a bit higher longer than house prices as the government has its tentacles there and has no support for mortgage holders in the arsenal this time.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630956#Comment_119630956

When does the collapse happen though?

Your tone is one of impending doom that you are thankful to escape from, when are you predicting this catastrophe to occur, late Spring next year? How does that rank with your previous doom laden predictions?

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629627#Comment_119629627

Ah the old begrudgers and whingers argument. I think we're a bit beyond that. We're living in a completely dysfunctional market and yes there are a minority doing well but basically telling people if you arent creaming it and cant afford to buy now its all your fault is nonsense. A lot of your posts in the last few pages have the whiff of Bertie about them. Well when the worst off in society get wiped out they'll move up the ladder. They'll get to you eventually. But according to you when they do sure it'll be your own fault anyway. Nothing to see here. Ireland is great.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631072#Comment_119631072

If the metric you use for doing well is owning their home, it is not a minority that is doing well, it is the overwhelming majority. Yes the cost of living has risen, but there are few places in the world that it hasn’t and a global pandemic/war in Ukraine cannot be blamed on a Government, MNCs or society in Ireland. As I posted earlier, I’m not blaming you for not being able to afford a home, but why are you blaming the Government/society for your life choices? Is someone else to blame for someone in a higher paying job outbidding you or being able to better absorb the increased costs of living?

I don’t think you have gone beyond begrudgery, the people outbidding you are your age, mostly Irish and don’t feel bad about the choices they made.

jj880

I have 5 years left on my mortgage so Im not bidding against anyone, blaming anyone for my own situation or unhappy with my life decisions at the moment. I am worried if I'll make it to the end of my mortgage term. Hopefully I do but who knows.

The point here is the state of the country overall. The property market is a big factor here. Young people leaving in their droves and I dont blame them. Where do you think this is all leading? Nowhere good thats for sure. Its a result of weak government policy over decades not the pandemic, not the war and not peoples "life decisions" no matter how much you try and say it is. At what point do you say "hang on here this has gone too far"?. Is it when average house price is a million euro? When average rent is 5k? When our national debt is half a trillion?

Or will it still be everyone's life decisions that are to blame?

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631143#Comment_119631143

So basically your logic is if everything has gone beyond your means then it's your own poor personal choices and what the rat in the cage really needs to do is get that wheel spinning faster! Don't complain about the conditions, just work fking harder!!!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631239#Comment_119631239

How can you possibly blame weak Government decisions when we have gone from the depths of recession to full employment, many with high paying jobs in the space of 10 yrs? Our population is at its highest since the famine and there has been little need to emigrate during that period, and still our employment figures hover around 4%, it beggars belief. I have no problem with people emigrating to improve their lot, I did it myself, my kids have done it.

As this is an anonymous forum, of course I don’t know your personal circumstances, if you have 5 yrs left on your mortgage you have benefited greatly from near 15 yrs of historically low interest rates, so the increases may balance that out a bit.

Will houses average at 1m, or rents go to €5k? Possibly if the market is there for it, but it is more likely to remain far below that as it is unlikely that wages will rise that much. But I am not an oracle, so anything is possible.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631281#Comment_119631281

Who would you like to blame?

If you have a sibling with a higher paying job than you which means he/she can afford to outbid you, do you blame him/her, the Government, society?

thomas 123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631143#Comment_119631143

That's not entirely true though is it?

People are competing against councils and buy to rent multinationals also over a very low stock of houses. Wages have not and will never match the growth in housing. Is there any point going through this though or are you going to make claims about the overwhelming majority doing great? Maybe look into hidden homelessness and the level of 18-30 year olds living in their parents houses or look at the amount in that age group who room share or rent a property.

An entire generation is locked out of home ownership at any level, its not because of "life choices".

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631307#Comment_119631307

I blame western Central banks who acted through government interventions to prop the assets up by lowering interest rates and QE. Lowering interest rates and buying of fiancial assets meant the big hedge funds we give out about had to go somewhere to get a better yeild than the extremely low government bonds, and obviously housing and real estate was the answer as it was yeilding at worst 5% in rental revenues every year, much better than government bonds. Why do this, all to keep the show on the road and create positive GDP. Government interventions in the the so called 'free market' have caused 90% of these inequalities and problems since the 80s.

I know alot of people may not agree but Milton Friedmann may have been very much right all along.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631304#Comment_119631304

So I should thank a group of landlord TDs for re-inflating rents and property prices after a recession they and their ilk caused. Jesis Christ Almighty.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631335#Comment_119631335

And all those units are now housing people.

thomas 123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631397#Comment_119631397

That all you got?

So its not life choices that keep many people in the 18-30 cohort out of home ownership right?

Is it more possible that all our builders left/went bust during the recession, hardly any homes were built, the population increased, now theres no houses and everyone who wants to buy is fighting over the crumbs left? Yeah the odd person 18-30 might be on 100k(By the way, that only will get them 350k in a mortgage so I hope their partner is earning) a year but it certainly is not the majority and it certainly is not down to life choices.

What do your own kids do for a living? Did you gift them land maybe to get them started if they own homes? Are they over 30? - i'm just surprised you were so quick to put this down to life choices, that's why I ask. I wonder what circumstances gave you that view.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631391#Comment_119631391

For Gods sake, have TDs introduced legislation which makes being a landlord easy for themselves?

How have they inflated rents? With policies which increased employment and the number of well paid jobs that meant the need to emigrate dwindled? Did the Government cause Covid, are you blaming them for raising wages and the cost of materials which make building more expensive? A Government can’t magically make hundreds of thousands of houses appear, and if they introduced tax incentives to entice developers and small investors into the market, you would cry fowl because they would make too much money. The last time Section 23 type incentives were introduced, small investors piled into the market and personal debt spiralled, so you can’t blame them for not wanting to go down that road again.

Interesting that jonnyc135 blames the banks which lowered the interest rates that you benefited from for the last 15 yrs. Do you agree with him that your interest rate should have been kept much higher?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631418#Comment_119631418

How many 18 yr olds are trying to buy homes? And it has always been more challenging for a single income to buy a property, there is nothing new in that.

Is that all I got? With small LLs exiting the market professional LLs are absolutely necessary, Ireland is not unique in that. Without councils buying homes our homeless figures would be far worse, the people they house are unlikely to be in a position to purchase it themselves. So while I do appreciate the irony that the State is competing with buyers, they do so with good reason.

Yes the builders went bust, and many fear of doing so again due to the cost of building and the difficulty with obtaining credit. I know builders that were large scale in the Celtic Tiger era who are not interested in developing multi unit housing, they want one off builds or extensions because they know they have a better chance of making a profit/getting paid. The Government can’t order them to take the risk again, and if they incentivise it to the point where it appeals to them, the public complain that nasty developers are at it again.

As for my own kids, what they do has no bearing on this conversation, I did not give them any land nor money, but I did give them advice, “don’t rely on others to help you”. They make their own way in life.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630878#Comment_119630878

There is no head in the sand and I’m clear on the risks that exist in the European market… your not looking forward though everyone of your predictions over the past 2 years have been wrong and way off the mark. Just like when you were on here giving out that stock market crashed because of covid variants and couldn’t see why travel bans would impact airlines share prices.

The fact that you were only interested in the rental market and how it was going to implode despite records high immigration and supply getting smaller…it didn’t happen and just like I have called you out many times you can’t back up your predictions with any facts.

your best effort is an economist who gave the worst advice ever when they encouraged the government to guarantee all deposits. The same economist who said don’t buy 2 years ago and now prices need to fall by at least 20% for anyone to be financially better off if they followed his advice and that’s not even taking into account 2 years rent.

thomas 123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631461#Comment_119631461

What age did you purchase your home? I gave you a bracket, was it not uncommon for people 20-30 years old to purchase houses and raise families in your day? 18-30 is to cover all the people who live on couches or in their childhood bedroom because they cant get on the property ladder.

"With small LLs exiting the market professional LLs are absolutely necessary, Ireland is not unique in that. Without councils buying homes our homeless figures would be far worse, the people they house are unlikely to be in a position to purchase it themselves. So while I do appreciate the irony that the State is competing with buyers, they do so with good cause."

Absolutely nothing to do with my point, you said it was down to personal choices a few posts back - so are you suggesting now its not ?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631335#Comment_119631335

Councils and investors all combined are only accounting for 15% of property transactions nationwide and the majority of this is in apartments.

The main fact is that there is a shortage of properties to buy 100’s of thousand of potential housing with planning already granted but not being built. A simple use it or loose law where planning would be revoked and land rezoned as non residential and a introduction of a 80% tax on any notional-profit from the land being rezoned back to residential would see these properties being built and would stop the hoarding of development land or the continuous flipping of development land and nothing being built.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631501#Comment_119631501

I bought my first home, an apartment in a small village outside London an hour from where I worked in 1996. I was 25, living with my then girlfriend, now wife. We put every penny we had into it and struggled to pay the mortgage for a while.

You asked me “Is that all you got?” When I posted that people are now living in the houses that councils/investment funds buy. And then went on to explain “what I got”. There is a benefit to those Councils/funds buying properties, people live in them.

Regarding personal choice, as you keep dwelling on it. Why is there an incessant need to blame others, be they your peers, or the Government for your choice of career? Others chose a different path and are earning more, that is life.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631426#Comment_119631426

Your leading and narrow questions are fooling no-one. Plenty of things previous and current governments could have done to make sure we aren't in this mess. They didn't. Funny how doing nothing benefits them with increased asset value and higher rents.

As for interest rates why were they lowered?

Id rather scumbags like Bertie didnt pour petrol on the fire for the "boom" and inflate the price of property to ridiculous levels to begin with.

What would most people rather have? Low interest rates last 15 years on an overinflated celtic tiger mortgage or reasonable rates on a reasonable mortgage in a country that hasnt been ruined by useless corrupt gombeens?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631614#Comment_119631614

The Irish government had no say on the interest rates!!!!

How can you possibly blame them when even the central bank of Ireland who’s decision making is independent of the government didn’t even have control over interest rates as it is undertaken by the ECB for the whole of Europe.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119631614#Comment_119631614

Jesus Bertie is gone, let it go.

A lot of people bought houses before Bertie, and after the price of property crashed. You have benefitted enormously from low interest rates and in all probability, your house is worth more today than when you bought it.