Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611709#Comment_119611709

I think the point was that they're both on the same road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611384#Comment_119611384

Did you perchance read the bit in the blue box at the end? This is why I asked if the higher incomes in Dublin/lower incomes outside was associated with the higher concentration of high paying jobs in Dublin associated with MNCs.

As we were talking about a barber and someone working in retail/HSE eventually, I took it that you were saying their income would be much less outside Dublin. Maybe that is what you are saying, if not, my mistake.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611553#Comment_119611553

They're both similar size houses and the second one is in turnkey condition.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611553#Comment_119611553

Which part are you struggling with?

They are both in a nice area, both almost the same size, one is two story, the other is a dormer, one has a larger garden but looks dated (love the carpet in the bathroom) the other has been refurbed/modernised etc.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611946#Comment_119611946

Of course higher average incomes in cities will be skewed by higher presence of MNCs. However even in smaller businesses in cities, the pay is often marginally above that in rural towns. A barber will definitely make more (and charge much more) in Dublin than out in the sticks. So do tattoo artists, so do bar staff, etc etc.

Trades are relatively highly paid countrywide due to big shortages, but a tradesman in Dublin will still make more money than one in Wexford, and far more than one in Leitrim. The idea that houses are much more affordable if people would just move out of urban areas to poorer counties is a bit of a fallacy - poor counties are poor due to a lack of well paying jobs!

Hello all ye knowledgeable folks. Looking for a bit of advice. My wife and I currently have mortgage approved and are house hunting. Do you think we should hold off for 12 months or go for it. Seen one or two potential properties but nothing we really love. Any advice would be much appreciated. Although we both see some sort of downturn coming, not sure it will be anything too significant regarding house prices. Maybe a better choice of house / selection in 12 months time? We are currently renting and its €1300 per month so not massive but not cheap either. Cheers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612061#Comment_119612061

Marginally more, or “a lot” more?.

Again, there is a thread about barbers prices on Boards, surprisingly, barbers in rural towns where there was less competition charged more than a lot of Dublin ones. It costs me €25, and I’m about an hour outside the M50. If you head over to the construction threads, you will see that tradesmen are approx the same countrywide.

Of course it is dependent on job/income, no point in looking at a cheaper house if your wage falls off a cliff. But are there that many jobs which are paid far less outside Dublin? I can’t think of many, do Dunnes or Penny’s pay less, the Public Service pay less, are mechanics, plumbers, painters paid less? Maybe they are, but you haven’t shown me anything to support that they are paid “a lot” less.

pinksoir

There seems to me to be a glaring issue in the housing situation, and that's where older folk are supposed to downsize to.

In my mum's estate there are a huge amount of elderly people in large 4 bed, 2 storey houses. A large proportion want to downsize but want to stay in the area close to friends and family, and the general familiarity. These are houses where only 2 rooms get any use, are cold and expensive to heat, not worth/too costly to retrofit etc.

The area is Dundrum in Dublin. This is a place that was essentially countryside when I was growing up, but grew at the fastest rate of any town in the country. Before the extensive development began in the 2000s, most people who lived out this way were older, having bought in the 70s/80s and had families. But during this explosion of development, no thought was given to the fact that in 20-30 years these same people would need somewhere to downsize to.

The option appears to be apartments, of which there seems to be little appetite, or else competing on the parallel market for small purpose built downsizer homes. I don't know of many in the vicinity. Of course, the other option is to compete with lower income/FTB for smaller houses, but then most of these are 2 storey which isn't ideal for those with mobility issues.

This is probably replicated across Dublin. There are countless family homes that are housing older couples or singles, who would happily downsize but there is nothing to incentivise them to do so. So instead these family homes mainly get recycled back into the market when these folk die.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612002#Comment_119612002

Still looking in Wicklow and 800 for a bungalow with no garden gave me a fright. I guess greystones is Dublin now....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612114#Comment_119612114

It’s a dormer, it does have a garden, and that area is pretty nice.

Listen, before you post anymore houses that frighten you, take a look at the overall picture, the house, the condition, the site, it’s location, demand in that area etc, honestly it’ll save you having to put your head under the couch every time you look at daft.ie.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612108#Comment_119612108

You have made multiple assertions here and provided no evidence.

I have shown you CSO information proving lower incomes outside of the cities. The CSO notes do not make any mention of MNC wages specifically or anything to that effect.

And €25 euro for a haircut outside Dublin is insane. It costs me 12, not that anecdotal data from here or a boards thread on barbers proves much. I have already given you the data that proves lower total incomes (including benefits!) outside the cities. Your own assertions require you provide some proof.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612076#Comment_119612076

Careful you came to the wrong place for advice. Lots of people with self interest. You need to look at your own circumstances - family (kids), employment, what your paying now vs what you would be paying.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612201#Comment_119612201

Timmy, average income will of course be higher in Dublin where there is a concentration of the highest paying jobs, and less where jobs are agri/manufacturing based. Is that in dispute?

But are barbers/retail staff paid less outside Dublin? Are there many jobs which are paid a lot less? You made the statement, not me.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612061#Comment_119612061

Seeing as how you are talking about barbers recently the lad I go to get my hair cut was looking to employ a second barber any trained lad was looking for 20+/ hour and that is 10+ miles from Limerick city

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612217#Comment_119612217

Cheers, thanks for the reply. There seems to be alot of economists on here so I thought this would be a great place to ask? Our mortgage would probably be the same as our rent now, but the options to buy are so limited at the moment. I guess we would just be buying for the sake of it which doesn't feel right.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612293#Comment_119612293

That's not a good sign, like in January this year when I seen the front of the Irish Sun was captioned "Boom Is Back". Never ends well

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612336#Comment_119612336

No one can help you time a bear-market in property with any kind of precision. There are too many variables and unknowns.

wassie

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/help-to-buy-scheme-did-not-cause-house-prices-to-rise-independent-report-says-41980894.html

• "The controversial Help to Buy scheme has not pushed up house prices, an independent report commissioned by the Government has found."
• "Despite damning research from the Oireachtas Parliamentary Budget Office in June which found it cost 43pc more than originally estimated and pushed up house prices"
• "It is understood Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien is in favour of extending the scheme with changes."

So Govt pays for its own 'independant report', that wont be released until budget day, to 'assist' the Govt's consideration on whether to extend the scheme, despite Civil servants finding otherwise. Call me cynical....

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612336#Comment_119612336

There are a lot of new places being built, having been delayed during COVID, at a time when maybe demand is starting to drop off a bit certainly it is not a mania phase as it was the last two years.

Interest rates are moving in a direction a lot of us are unfamiliar with and where they end up is anyone's guess. While this will likely make your mortgage repayments higher if you wait longer, rate rises will almost certainly put downward pressure on prices.

Higher mortgage repayments but smaller mortgage and more supply. That's how I see the next 12-24 months.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612748#Comment_119612748

Cheers thanks for your reply. This is good feedback.

youngblood

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612336#Comment_119612336

I think are few people are in this position, buying for the sake of buying right now which again feels wrong

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612748#Comment_119612748

The number of commencements has been declining and the majority of it is BTR so wouldn’t be overly confident that supply of new houses will be anywhere sufficient to meet demand that will put downward pressure on prices in the near term.

https://www.housingagency.ie/data-hub/commencements

Between now and Jan a lot of properties by small landlords will hit the market. These will be people who took out mortgages on second homes at low rates in the 90’s as their pension and now they are hitting pensionable age and selling so you might see a short lived uptick on secondhand properties over the next 6-12 months.

I was listening to RTE1 in the car tonight and all political parties were saying that large numbers of people have been given notice and that the rental market will be totally crazy over the winter as the under supply is going to get way worse. This could easily drive renters that are in a position to buy to buy at any cost if they find there landlord is selling up because they won’t be able to find a replacement rental.

wages are going up across the board and this will be reinforced by increases in social payments and an increase in minimum wage. if everyone else is getting a 5-10% increase and a company doesn’t pay then people will move jobs as they will have to, to be able to pay the bills. I’m not saying people will be financially better off (they won’t) but the amount they can borrow will increase which will cause upward pressure on house prices.

if inflation hangs about you will see more investors going into housing as it’s a natural hedge against inflation because during periods of inflation house prices hold there value better than other investments because prices tend to rise.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/04/14/why-income-generating-real-estate-is-the-best-hedge-against-inflation/amp/

Rate rises should put downward pressure on house prices but if people are paying more rent than they would on a mortgage this will counteract the downward pressure until the differential becomes smaller or negative.

These are my thoughts if they are any help to you.

The only other thing I would add is that it is a big investment and regardless of what people say here (including myself) you need to get the facts and come to your own decision and not be pressurised to make an instant decision. When you do that whatever decision you make will feel right for you.

Wishing you all the best with the future.

PommieBast

@Timing belt

I was listening to RTE1 in the car tonight and all political parties were saying that large numbers of people have been given notice and that the rental market will be totally crazy over the winter as the under supply is going to get way worse. This could easily drive renters that are in a position to buy to buy at any cost if they find there landlord is selling up because they won’t be able to find a replacement rental.

I don't see how the rental market could become more crazy than it already is. Last time someone posted availability figures a while back they already looked like being within statistical noise of zero..

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615425#Comment_119615425

conversely on the demand side ..

More than seven out of 10 young Irish people want to move abroad

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.joe.ie/amp/news/seven-10-young-irish-people-want-move-abroad-755157

once youngsters and not so young have enough they will start leaving in their droves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615382#Comment_119615382

Thanks for your reply, very interesting points. With the housing market decline in countries like Austrailia, NZ, USA etc, will the same not happen here. I get what you say when people will buy a house if the mortgage is cheaper or the same as their rent, but alot may not be able to afford much with the 3.5 times salary cap on borrowing?

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615700#Comment_119615700

The study was “considering” moving abroad - not “wanting” to go abroad. Most people that age consider moving abroad at some point. Obviously the outlook isn’t great for someone starting out right now but I think this study is just part of a classic pre budget submission piece of work from an NGO.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610762#Comment_119610762

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119607489#Comment_119607489

Is there rentals available? Is there a pathway to homeownership? Yes to both from what I can see

My son is in London for the summer rental considerably less than Dublin?

Prices are starting to fall, taxes are less. Cheaper to get home than Dublin.

The longer people stay there the more likely they will stay

Leaving is a valid choice and increasingly more attractive especially for the highly skilled, well educated

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615929#Comment_119615929

Yes there is a pathway to ownership in London, if you are will to pay more then it costs for the same pathway in Ireland.

Did you read the gov.uk link? It points to the fact that it costs MORE to buy in London. If you offered that money here for a house in Dublin, you would own your home in Dublin.

So what point are you making? That there is a higher volume of more expensive houses in London, so there is an easier pathway to ownership?

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615425#Comment_119615425

They are effectively at zero.

Our big MNCs cannot create new jobs as there is no housing available whatsoever. Funnily enough it has coincided with a general slowdown in big tech companies hiring but the data speaks for itself; a couple hundred rentals in the whole city of Dublin; MNC growth of headcount is quenched because of our housing emergency.

Edit: let's not forget Intel and the failure to secure the semiconductor plant recently; housing was a factor.

I own property in Dublin and I rent in London. Spend substantial amount of my time in London

so I speak with direct experience of London v Dublin, and I can say without question that the London property market now has far more to offer and is far easier to navigate for young people. I would not hesitate to recommend that young people give it a go.

Sure, prices are much the same (unless you want to live in Chelsea, Mayfair, Westminster or the City). But the quality of accommodation and its size is so so much better for your money. I don’t know anyone who lives in flats in London. Everyone I know lives in converted terraced houses, often split level, much better suited to houseshares, brighter, bigger etc. There are vast swathes of London covered in this style of housing. And, sure, you might commute from Clapham, or Islington, or Putney, or Wapping but nobody goes to the office every day any more anyway. And all these places are little towns in their own right and no need to go into the city on a night.

the way that Dublin had gone, it’s a no brainier in my view now as to which market is the more dysfunctional and can quite believe that more young people will leave in coming years