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Ireland - lack of air and naval defence.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    It is and likely to be longer tbh, but don’t let that get in the way of a rant. We know the broad figures now for the next budget, we know the talk has been about LoA2(+?) and we know it’s not going to be done in a single year.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You need to look at the figures. There is not enough there for anything beyond patching up option 1 issues. It will be dressed up as a multi year development but then you will have all the other priorities kick in and watch it wither.

    I could be wrong ofc. I just don’t see the numbers for anything else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    LoA2 is an extra €500 million a year, that is easily achievable and sustainable in the budget, it could be done even in one year, there’s been some mixed comments about going to €2 billion, which might fit the comments about parts of LoA3 but that’s fuzzy. LoA1 has been dismissed by everyone as a non runner, and politically LoA2 has clearly been the landing ground. Now of course that depends on the next government sustaining the Option but there’s nothing we can do about that right now.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Yep, an additional 50% increase on current spend, there's no real economic block to increasing it that much.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Checked the Report again. Estimate of option 2 is 1.5 bn. The 500m estimate is taking the current budget and subtracting it from this. The problem is there is so much remediation to be done on top of current grossly inadequate budget that €500m will very quickly shrink doing that.

    Watch how spend already done on “coastguard” vessels (by taking funds from Defence) is counted as “coastal Defence”.

    Political twisting about announcing funds several times and money already spent will make it sound more than it is.

    If I see a spend of around €800m extra next year that would be a start.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    What "Coastguard Vessels"? There's the couple of new Revenue boats but that's not coming from the defence budget, the MRV is already factored into the Capital budget already. And no there's not going to be €800 million next year, or any lump sum, that has already been said multiple times.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I didn’t see any announcement of €500m. Who said the amount already?

    Edit: Coastguard vessels funded from 20m taken from Defence budget, media report Iirc.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The coastguard vessels are the revenue cutters: my error. The funding of these at circa 10m each was to be achieved through the extraordinary underspend on Defence returned to the exchequer.

    The MRV you mention is not capable of patrolling the EEZ and there is one in the pipeline.

    From what you are saying we are looking at remediation under option 1 and a lot of political spin around it. I hope I’m wrong.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    Spending at any time has to be relevant. Our history so far, particularly on the Naval scene has been acquisition of ships, some designed for Naval tasks, like corvettes and minesweepers, but all required to "patrol" and fulfil peace time policing duties. Other than P31, which seemed to open up modern capabilities, we continue to opt for patrolling and minimising intervention in Hot situations.

    The Metro in Dublin is a wise spend for reasons other than transport. we may have a major shelter resource for thousands of people in time of danger. The Ukranians are blessed with so much underground facilities well hardened under factories.

    Budgets once assigned should not be notional or deliberately deflected to non-defence spending. Getting back to relevance please don't buy ships or boats for optical or political reasons. Get out your JANE's and look at other Navies such as the Finns, Swedes, Norwegians, Danes, and Belgians. All new tonnage can float and patrol but it must have a Naval deterrent/intervention capability.

    I will be hopefully present, this week, to see P31 decommissioned along with her HOSTAC capabilities and Primary/Secondary radar and IFF, and the loss of 80 or more personnel from the establishment including the skills expensively acquired on overseas courses.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Options is perfectly fine. I corrected error re coastguard/revenue. The point which you missed is that funds that belong to Defence were underspent and the underspend pays for vessels elsewhere.

    The MRV one in number, one, did I say one? Is utterly inadequate to patrol EEZ.

    I don’t see the numbers for a true capacity build up in 500m extra. I see remediation. I see spin. Let’s see first if the political parties responsible for gutting the Defence forces allocate 500m per year. A budget of 1.5 bn will quickly deliver far less than thought.

    As I said, I hope I’m wrong .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    What sort of naval service do we need if we were to invest in grippens or f16s ?

    Is it basically just beckets with a radar system and a small anti-aircraft system for self defence ... And a multi-role vessel (or 2 🤔),

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    You seem to be missing the whole undersea aspect?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Jaysus , are you sure you don't want to chuck an aircraft carrier and a few nuclear subs in there as well . seems a bit ... Ambitious maybe .. again what's the navy for ? .. however I'd agree with designing the future multirole vessel ( s) to be able to be as multi-functional as possible in the future .. wether that's a vehicle deck , capacity to transport multiple Containers hopefully with power supply if needed , or a flight deck/ hanger area or crane ..

    I still reckon a large off shore support vessel could fit the bill as a basic design .. they're designed to be flexible ,and to handle the roughest of weather ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    It’s pretty much as basic a navy as you could have with nothing special in the list tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Ok - maybe I went for a bit of hyperbole ,

    So we have 6 opvs currently .. ( and can't crew them ) , at least 4 of those could have a flight deck ,and radars added if desired , (the back of a Becket is fairly substantial)

    We've 2 inshore patrol vessels coming , ( honestly I'd add the soon to be retired revenue cutters to that , even if only for an skua marra ( still a lot better than what they had a few years back )

    We're not likely to get minesweepers , although we could reconfigure at least 2 opvs to be more capable of that role - with a view to being replaced with more purpose designed mine sweeper/ opvs when the time comes ..

    And then 1 or 2 multirole vessels ( it'll probably be 1) ? Would they replace existing opvs

    But ultimately what would 10 vessels do around our coast ? Especially when the new casas come online soon ?

    How many days at sea would the navy want/expect them each to do ?

    Would we be better off focusing on making the naval service more attractive for young recruits , with better accomodation options , better college and apprenticeship options , better work/ life balance and career options beyond the naval service ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Can see the dept of public expenditure giving enough money for two new helis and a pay rise for personal. They will probably clap themselves on the back after.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I cant find it now but when the Aussie navy first took on this yoke to patrol northern Australian waters they expected it to be at sea over 300 days a year , I've no idea how that worked out either ... Admittedly that was patrolling the northern part of a continent ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    What makes you think the Navy should only be operating in our waters? What makes you think two CASAs replacing two CASAs will radically change matters from what they have been given that two aren’t enough anyway?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    2 casas Aren't enough for what ?

    And you're right I had kind of assumed the Irish navy would be largely operating in Irish waters .. although if a vessel were to be used for something like the med mission then great ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    For patrolling our seas, particularly with the potential increase of patrols in the Irish Sea, and as they aren’t true MPAs so again are relatively blind to any subsurface activities. And yeah the navy should be tasked with other operations, there’s UNFIL for example or the EU patrols off Africa that we should have looked at years ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,839 ✭✭✭Alkers


    It is timely that an Taoiseach is visiting Ukraine currently, the extent of devastation he sees might go some way to increasing the appetite for adequate defence spending



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    Judging by his verbal interactions he was shocked by scenes of wartime destruction. It will have been his first experience of seeing wartime damage. From our side we must encourage making all parts of our PDF relevant to modern warfare. Many MPA's referred to are adaptions and marinized for SW Flying. I'd imagine anything equipped appropriately with endurance of 7hrs plus can do an adequate job. Our ships of whatever type must also be relevant and not just targets. The MRV as well as intended roles must be capable of mothering ships on tasks where resupply is a need.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’m posting the tweet as it saves typing it out and gives the source simultaneously.

    8D38DA68-317F-404D-BD21-5A66EC7FDBBB.jpeg


    We will know very soon if they’re going for it or not. If they do there has been a huge U turn. That can only have been brought about by massive external pressure. The price for the Protocol and Biden hanging tough with the UK?

    I have no faith in MM. He is at heart a naive pacifist and close to Home Rule/unionism and his experiences in Ukraine will only reinforce his belief that all fighting is wrong and surrender is the best policy. He will say different of course but I think he has been told by Eastern European states and others that Ireland must do more. The danger is that the more will be focussed on “peace building” and support roles (look at the PESCO tasks today) so that he can claim we’re implementing a LOA2 but gain damn all in capacity for air or naval Defence. That leaves the way open for an alliance and the continued dependency on the UK in particular. Alliances are needed. But the EU should come first.


    The direction of Ireland in the 21st century in IR and Defence will be set next week. I’m leaning toward a version of the above as most likely and fundamentally a fudge.



  • Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Time will tell if MM goes the way I predict. Enjoy your banana.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Assuming the government stays in power, December ish, the decisions on the report will be announced next week. That being said, his comments have also suggested the LoA2 area already.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 675 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Well next Tuesday if Sinn Fein get thier vote.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭sparky42




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