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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And thus we are back around to the original point that I made when I first posted on this thread: it's a value judgement.

    Societies that value safety were content to offer up liberty to the state who implemented strong coercive measures. Hobbesian.

    Societies that value liberty were less content to do so, at the price of a small increase in the level of risk.

    Societies who could not afford lockdowns are another conversation but do bear in mind that lockdown was a luxury for rich nations.

    We now know where Irish society places value. Let's see how it reacts to the next crisis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Just to add to that. I'm not saying Sweden did badly. I'm saying it could have done a lot better considering its advantages. The main reason for that "relative" under performance was its light restrictions. You can argue that economically its did better and thats more important to you than in your opinion a statistically minor number of extra people dying. Each to their own and all that.

    Countries in northern Europe have generally experienced much lower mortality rates throughout the pandemic. Some Nordic nations have experienced almost no excess deaths at all. The exception is Sweden, which imposed some of the continent’s least restrictive social-distancing measures during the first wave.

    From a difference source

    To the possible disappointment of both its supporters and detractors, Sweden’s estimated excess death of 56/100,000 is about half the UK’s and, while it is above those of other Nordic nations, it still looks flattering relative to the majority of EU countries.

    Also

     A single number for each country is unlikely to capture the full complexity of vastly different socioeconomic situations and two years of often inconsistent policies. Lower-middle income countries in eastern Europe and South America have been particularly badly affected, probably because of a relatively unfavourable age pyramid, low vaccination coverage and disruption to their economy and healthcare systems. Richer countries tended to do better overall, with the exception of the US, which fared quite poorly with 144/100,000 excess deaths.


    A few countries kept excess deaths close to, or even below zero, including Australia, Iceland, Japan, Luxembourg, Mongolia and New Zealand. Being rich and geographically isolated helps.

    Ultimately this is forum for discussion and/or distraction and to waste some time. So why discuss Sweden? Why not.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This whole experience has been (and will be in the future, for historians) - a fascinating study in human psychology. Whichever side of the debate you are on, I think it boils down to the classical thought of scepticism vs stoicism. Sceptics are those that argue that there is a better/more balanced way to have done this (voluntary measures, isolate the vulnerable, for example) vs the stoics (who believe that the ends justify the means and that we ought to just put up with it for the utilitarian calculus of greater good).

    To my, somewhat libertarian mind, the stoic approach is a totalitarian one because it implies that human beings are simply tools of collective national policy, as opposed to individuals. This is not the norm for a liberal democracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Its value judgment. Sure. No argument.

    But as academic exercise in stats, there a bit of data distortion going on. That before you consider the deliberate under reporting thats going on by some countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Regardless of subject, if you pick the extreme end of a range of estimates, its unlikely to ever to happen. That's why its a range. Its also an estimate. More so if you leave out the conditions the estimate (prerequisite) that the range is based on.

    If you believe the media 100% and don't do your own critical analysis. Then thats a whole different issue. That before you get into tabloid reporting and click bait journalism.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,558 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Economically, Sweden have done worse than most of their neighbours and Ireland, but economic performance is not going to be slowly down to pandemic measures.

    What we can say is that the disastrous herd immunity measures followed by relatively similar measures post vaccination rollout did them no favours economically.



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    Apart from the fact no one can show it was a disaster so therefore it wasn't

    Sweden is the real winner, it maintained the values of democracy

    Every country who locked down has shown itself to be totalitarian, that's how genocides of hutu / tutsi / jews / famine irish happens. Your all knowing government says do this or else



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Firstly Ireland is not a totalitarian state , even in our worst lockdown, and secondly if you guys believe that you really should be posting it somewhere else, because it is pure fantasy .



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    What you mean like the whole world being under 2/5km house arrest with police stationed on the roads to control your movement's

    Not totalitarian at all



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You think it's not possible for a democracy to behave as if it was a totalitarian state? Or in a despotic manner? Well, 2020 proved that it can.

    Ireland in 2020/21 was an oppressive state that allowed almost zero individual liberty/autonomy. I have friends abroad who say now that Ireland is the land of the lockdown, not the land of the welcome atmosphere. (Recall that I'm not Irish)

    That's fact, not fantasy.

    It might not have been oppressive to you personally, or even the majority, but then we have tyranny of the majority. If you were not affected then lucky you.

    If you think being confined to 5km for months on end, being told who we could meet, where we could go, who was allowed to work, coupled with checkpoints is not totalitarian, then frankly I'm surprised, and concerned.

    Do you think that lockdown (of healthy/uninfected people) is a libertarian strategy? Is that where lockdown comes from, a country that prides itself on individual liberty? Nope, it comes from a totalitarian state.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Limited temporary health restrictions are not what defines a totalitarian state.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Limited, temporary, sure - we know that now.

    But, remember - we didn't know at the time how long they would be in place for. They are over, for now at least.

    I am not optimistic about how this state (or certain other EU states) are going to react to future crises.

    Government's have now learnt the enormous power that public fear gives to them. Let's hope that fact is not taken advantage of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,541 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Correct, but a lot of our restrictions had nothing to do with limiting the virus spread and some increased spread of the virus. Locking up beaches and mountains, funnelling people to indoor gatherings was moronic.

    Now, that was down to incompetence rather than totalitarianism, but shows the dangers of too much government power.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    My first and ultimate major complaint with this was the closure of/denial of access to outdoor areas and zero risk activities. It was unscientific. It was as scientific as the street spraying in China. Denying access to outdoor areas and forcing urban communities together was wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,524 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I'd suggest 'governments' knew this already.

    The restrictions were always going to be limited and temporary for very obvious reasons.

    It's such a pity that everything has to be pointed out.

    It's crazy how some can twist logic and rewrite history to come to the conclusion that Ireland is a totalitarian state.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Didn't say it was, said it acted in that manner. There is a distinction there. Lockdown (of healthy/uninfected people) is a totalitarian strategy copied from a totalitarian state. It's such a pity that I have to point that out.

    I actually think it wasn't obvious that the restrictions (all of them) would be temporary, because Covid will be with us for decades, maybe forever now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There are always rules. Even this forum has rules there is no free speech here for example.

    Well people are stupid. They had parties of hundreds of people on the beach.

    You can't travel to mountains and beaches without travelling. Which invariably means contact with people outside your immediate social circle.

    The virus traveled around the country in people. It didn't magic its way around.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,524 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    It's a logical move when you literally don't know what you are dealing with.

    Blatently obvious that restrictions of that initial level could not go on for ever.....



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That's why I said ALL restrictions, not just the initial level.

    People are unable to travel to the mountains/beach alone or with only 'household' members? Without going in a shop, or local (5km) garage for fuel? News to me.

    A respected journo wrote a column about Ireland during the lockdowns (https://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/others/irelands-brutal-covid-lockdown)

    One of the opening paragraphs 'Ireland in the time of Covid is a totalitarian state.'

    Anyway, this is all off thread chatter.

    Sweden didn't lockdown, it's world didn't end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What people can or should do and what they actually do is two different things.

    We had lockdown the world didn't end.

    Unless you died from the virus, then it did.



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    'What people can or should do and what they actually do is two different things.' - this is such an interesting statement and it betrays your pessimism about people and their personal responsibility. If people are told of the risk, and treated like adults - on the whole, they will behave like adults. (there will always be exceptions, of course)

    'We had lockdown the world didn't end.' - for some it did in some ways, at least during, as well as after. Think about all the small businesses that now no longer exist. Or those who were unemployed, particularly in the younger generations.

    'Unless you died from the virus, then it did.' - people died under lockdown with the virus as well as when we were not under lockdown (granted, numbers are different). As an older person, who knows many older (vulnerable) people - I'd have preferred to live with freedom united with risk as opposed to restrictions with safety. I'd (and they) prefer to spend my last days with people of my choosing, in areas of my choosing - not the states. What happened was that the choice was eliminated (I said this before). Who should decide that? Government officials, or the individual? I know who I think....



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It's how societies work. They have rules. If you don't like the rules find a different society. If you choose not to then you've voted with your feet about which society you prefer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,541 ✭✭✭jackboy


    We knew very early it spread when too many people were indoors with poor ventilation. That’s how it spread around the country. Closing beaches and mountains obviously increased that type of mixing. It’s a bit disturbing that people still think there was any science or good reasons for closing beaches and mountains.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "If you don't like it, get out?" Is that what you are saying?

    What you are also saying is that each individual is nothing more than a building block for a given society. That's an incredibly inhumane way to treat humans. Humans are not simply tools for collective national policy, I've said this numerous times.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I'm saying that's how a society works.

    You're protesting about the rules of a society you've chosen to join.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There were super spreader events outside.

    Sking, sports events, cyclists stopping for lunch, parties on beaches, horse racing, extended family garden parties, holidays, travel, camping.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,541 ✭✭✭jackboy


    This is not true and you know it. The science showed that outdoor activities were vastly less risky than indoor activities with poor ventilation. I noticed you tried to sneak a couple of indoor activities into your list to reinforce your point, but it just indicates you don’t believe what you are saying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,541 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Sweden did have significant restrictions. Their high death rate was caused by not protecting the elderly and vulnerable in time, same as other countries that had high death rates. We made the same mistake at the start remember.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,558 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Look at their 2020 deaths data vs. other countries.

    Look at their economic performance overall.

    Neither are good compared to others.

    Sweden got back to average after a successful vaccine rollout and bringing in restrictions.

    The 2020 approach won't be followed by other countries (and hindsight is everything but betting on herd immunity for a newly emerged mutagenic virus is very very very stupid).



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,898 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What indoor activities???

    Less risk is not no risk. You've just conceeded that outdoor activities do (and) did spread the virus.



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