Sweden avoiding lockdown

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177154#Comment_119177154

The point is you were supplied the data to manipulate as you wish and are now running away from engaging with the data like a child would. It's pretty hilarious.

If you don't understand how websites work just say so and someone might be able to help you with it, put the big boy pants on.

As said, this running away is utterly bizarre, even Google will show you the data and sources with a few search terms.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177150#Comment_119177150

LOL As opposed to you that has no idea other than some vague notion in your own head as to what you are trying to say that you have not produced a single piece of data to back up ?

Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression earlier. No need for you to restrict yourself to 4 countries. Pick as many as you like that border each other who historically and culturally, even in language, have so much in common where the percentage of their populations are the same by age for those most at risk from this virus, where one has chased herd immunity and the rest have not that counter the verifiable statistics you have been provided with regarding the Nordic Nations.

In other words if you cannot provide even a shred of evidence to back up your own vague notions, then stop whinging about others that have provided reams showing the absurdity of your pie in the sky.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177152#Comment_119177152

You have been provided with the data. You just refuse to acknowledge it.

The only conclusions are that you are either totally incapable of doing even the most basic internet search, or that you are fully aware you are just posting gibberish. Either way you have long gone past the point of embarrassing yourself and looking foolish.

Att vara en hest

"Fast forward a few months and it was becoming embarrassingly hard to prove a link between lockdown and controlling the virus. Sweden was doing pretty well, in spite of having kept schools, pubs and restaurants open. Rather than ask what there was to learn, Hancock became enraged by what he called the “f-----g Sweden argument” and wanted it quashed. “Supply three or four bullet [points] of why Sweden is wrong,” he asked of his aides. Not whether it was wrong: why it was wrong."

• https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/02/britain-failed-pro-lockdown-clique-incapable-admitting-errors/

https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1632363525405392896

See also:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_EU_between_January_2020_and_December_2022:~:text=Table%201%3A%20Excess%20mortality%20indicator

Goldengirl

This reply to this tweet is more interesting , with statistics from reliable sources including John Hopkins on the the first 2 years.

https://twitter.com/bjornpiltz/status/1503285417579270147

"Apparently, this wasn’t the work of the statistics office, but a sole employee of SCB who was contacted by a Swedish newspaper to perform a very peculiar calculation on the raw data, averaging two years at the time. "

https://svd.se/sveriges-overdodlighet-tredje-lagst-i-norden…

What would be more interesting and honest to the discussion would be as per one of the replies suggests, to look at the fact that Sweden did come out average among EU countries and when reviewing their response along with others discuss what aspects could be adopted by other countries .

There is no doubt that we locked down too harshly in the second year when vaccinations were being rolled out .

But no way would adopting their first year strategy of no restrictions , in high density populations lead to anything other than absolute carnage for the older and more vulnerable generation in the presence of a novel virus with ni vaccines .

As witnessed in Italy .

The Nordic countries are of a lower density of population than most of the other countries in Europe, eg. only a third of Ireland , and similar social culture , so it is daft trying to compare them with other more populated countries with different ways of socialising and cultures .

A lot of anti lockdown restrictions posters keep pushing a narrative that others who have a different view are using the other Nordic countries to try to make Sweden's response look poorer . Not so . It just makes more sense to compare like with like , when there are so many confounders .

Thats how research is done , try to level the playing field as much as possible . Otherwise it is doubtful that results are applicable or even accurate .

Your link in the post above is very doubtful information , being disseminated by a publication that is not very highly respected tbh , and will not be given much credit , until proven otherwise by those who can be trusted not to use public health information for anything other than the public good .

AdamD

Well the second link doesn't even include 2022

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337233#Comment_120337233

The data wasn't adjusted for demographic changes and trends and still hasn't been.

There's also questions about whether all Swedish deaths are included, there could be thousands missing as Sweden allows deaths to be recorded without a date of death. This dataset was pulled together as a collection of weekly deaths in Sweden.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1615320704622239744

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337233#Comment_120337233

No , correct. It's from March 2022 . Neither does the original properly as Italy and Sweden and some other countries had not submitted their entire data .

If people are relying on these numbers to bolster their credibility , its unfortunate that the numbers don't add up .

Had to be rushed though because Anders needed a good news story . Bit of a botch though .

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336888#Comment_120336888

Just pulling one quote out of this to show you have no idea what you're talking about - "The Nordic countries are of a lower density of population than most of the other countries in Europe, eg. only a third of Ireland"

This shows you've just googled very basic statistics (ie "size of country vs population") with no real understanding. Sweden is a large country geographically, but its heavily urbanised with its population concentrated in cities. It has the 9th highest urban population ratio in the EU, significantly ahead of Ireland for example.

This is the actual measurement used for assessing population density when it comes to disease spread, because it doesn't matter how large your country is if its mostly empty countryside that nobody lives in.

If you're unaware of this very basic fact, that you based a lot of your post around, its a fairly safe assumption you're the one posting "very doubtful information".

Blut2

And also, while I'm here, here are the figures on excess mortality including 2022 that you seem to want to ignore for some reason:

From WHO data, which is hopefully more to your liking. And which clearly shows Sweden's hands-off approach had slightly better results over time than Ireland's very costly lockdowns.

(and Sweden's deaths may actually be significantly less once 2023 is included, given Ireland's huge emerging problem with missed cancer diagnoses. Notice which ways the two lines are trending in January 2023..).

odyssey06

And this is Sweden v Denmark, same data set.

See the spikes in 2020 that Sweden had but Denmark did not?

odyssey06

And this is the Economist data set

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337579#Comment_120337579

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337627#Comment_120337627

First post ..

I did mention population density in relation to other European countries . I was thinking of more highly populated countries than ours , but used the population density of Sweden vs Ireland as an example . Note the use of the abbreviation ..eg ..which means for example ?

Of course there are large highly populated areas in Sweden as well . Think that would be understood without having to state it , I would have thought .

If you choose to infer that data from John's Hopkins is ' doubtful ', that is to your bias .

There are many other differences in their population to other European countries that would make a difference in disease spread. As mentioned , society and culture being but two . Other differences which have been found to relate to disease spread more strongly than population density are household size which is common to all Nordic countries .

Over half Swedish adults live in single households and the rest of households are small with either couples living alone or with an average of 1.7 children . These factors have been found to be highly related to disease spread so it is perfectly correct to mention them . Education , socioeconomic class and immigration status also come into the equation , but less so than household size , age and health status .

With the small households, and exceptional health care and elder care system like their immediate neighbours they could have done so much better .

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8239687/#!po=33.720

And for the second post ...

WHO data is fine thanks

. At least when they make adjustments, as they do , for both Germany and Sweden , they include it and explanations of why it may affect the outcomes, in 'supplementary information '.

They did make adjustments to the averages of those countries'excess mortality.

This is because Germany had a higher than usual excess mortality rate in 2019 , and Sweden had a lower than expected the same year , which when taken with results for years 2015 to 2019 skewed their overall averages.

And finally ..

The reason why excess death mortality in Sweden is thought to be lower in the last year is because of the effect of " mortality displacement " ,ie. an affect of decreased deaths in an elderly population due to increased deaths in the preceding year/s , as those who might have died in 2021 or 2022 died in 2020 as a result of Covid .

This explains the numbers , but does not justify the Swedish response especially when you look at how their closest neighbour dealt with the pandemic . This study directly compares the two responses and death rates ..

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8807990/

Att vara en hest

"The Nordic countries are of a lower density of population than most of the other countries in Europe, eg. only a third of Ireland , and similar social culture , so it is daft trying to compare them with other more populated countries with different ways of socialising and cultures ."

That may be true if you look at the country as a whole, but Sweden (more so than the other Nordic countries except maybe Denmark) has high density in the cities but very low outside. For instance Stockholm vs Dublin Stockholm has higher population density:

Stockholm:

Dublin:

But yes, obviously Sweden is a whole lot bigger than Ireland size wise so if you look at country overall Sweden has less density. But Sweden is more urbanized and high density in its cities than Ireland. According to worldbank data Sweden has an urban population % of 88 vs Ireland's 66 %.

Also "with different ways of socialising and cultures ."

The difference being that Swedes were actually able to and did socialize throughout the pandemic while for instance the Irish did not or at least were very limited in their ability to do so.

odyssey06

This would also be relevant re: spread of diseases, single person households v multi-generational.

Over half of Sweden's households made up of one person:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20170905-1

CalamariFritti

Sweden. Must. Not. Be. Allowed. Look. Good. In. This.

Whatever hairs we're splitting here we're not exactly debating whether Sweden were the worst vs Sweden were second worst are we?

We're debating whether Sweden actually did best when its all said and done or not quite best and when we're throwing everything we have at Sweden we can construe something that makes Sweden 'only' look like pretty decent European average. Still better than most.

So whatever we way you guys frame it doesn't make the hysterics and draconian nonsense everyone else subscribed to look any better.

Just my humble opinion.

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120341968#Comment_120341968

Agreed and it should be added that it’s peers who it is often compared to and are vying for top spot with also had very light lockdowns compared to the rest of Europe

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337863#Comment_120337863

That's amazing. Sweden, widely criticized for having very minimal restrictions, only marginally worse than Ireland which was among the strictest in the EU over the period. I would not be surprised if, given time, Sweden come out better as many of the issues associated with heavy restrictions, such as we had in Ireland, take time to manifest.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120342138#Comment_120342138

It also did worse than some of its close neighbours such as Denmark and Norway who would be typical countries it would be compared to.

Sweden had a lot of inherent advantages going in - density factors wrt household size, ICU capacity and a population who made significant voluntary shifts in behaviour as noted on the thread. Factors other countries couldnt necessarily rely on.

It operated in an EU / region where other countries did impose restrictions and there was a huge drop in international travel.

So my main point is that Swedens approach doesnt scale and we shouldnt expect Swedish outcomes elsewhere as England found out.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120342198#Comment_120342198

Sorry I did not realize you were posting that chart to show how badly Sweden did. They seem to have done very well compared to the vast bulk of European countries including some, like Spain, who had very strict lockdowns.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120341627#Comment_120341627

I presume you are responding to my post although you only partially quote it and not refer that it is me you are replying to ??

Yes population density was mentioned with our numbers as an example.

Yes society and culture also mentioned along with household sizes, in the next post .

These factors are most similar to other Nordic countries and not the rest of Europe , so this is why they are compared as in the piece of research I posted which clearly outlines the differences in response and their results between Sweden and Norway .

Mortality in Norway and Sweden during the Covid 19 Pandemic https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8807990/#

It just makes sense to compare them unless one is trying to fudge the issue to make it look like they did better than they did .

They of course did better than Spain Italy and UK and a lot of other countries . But they also did worse than many ther countries too , ourselves included . With the confounding factors as mentioned above , one with lockdown and one without , a straight comparison with their nearest neighbour is the most accurate .

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120341968#Comment_120341968

I don't know if any of you have read beyond " no lockdown " but their response was not either fair nor equal nor was it honest .

Here is a study of research done by international as well as Swedish researchers into the response .

I recommend it especially the sections detailing the Lack of Transparency, and the Societal Impact, especially on less affluent and less educated , the elderly and migrant groups.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5

Just a note ..I would be interested what those who were worried about potential affronts to civil liberties here in Ireland would feel if they found that they had been lied to on the level the Swedish public were lied to during the first years of the pandemic .

For good or for bad we were drip fed all the numbers and deaths and research at the time of, pretty much or shortly after when collated .I know that both depressed and pvssed off a lot of people but we weren't lied to at least . I know which I prefer .

" Transparency and accurate information to the public were not a priority—with most communication aimed to “not spread fear” or increase social unrest. If the government and authorities are not honest and transparent towards the public about the virus, how it spreads and the risk to them (individually and collectively in society), then how can individuals make responsible, informed decisions? Protecting the “Swedish image” (Sverigebilden) nationally and internationally has appeared to be more important than protecting the lives of Swedish residents, including healthcare workers, elderly, individuals with risk factors (e.g., comorbidities), minority groups and the socio-economically less advantageous. This is evidenced by the high excess mortality in these groups, lack of proper protective personal equipment, and denial of healthcare. There remains a lack of ethical consciousness and the skill to include ethical reasoning in decision-making processes; and lack of compassion for the victims of the pandemic (Bergmann, 2021b; Bergmann, 2021a)."

AdamD

Ireland's lockdowns were also more harmful to less well off groups, you'll find that in every single country regardless of policy. The pandemic was more harmful to people who couldn't just WFH and faux outrage at anyone not doing so.

Emblematic

I see critics of Sweden have moved on from "Neighbouring countries" to "Nordic Countries". This, I think, is because one of the neighbouring countries, Finland, actually has higher excess mortality than Sweden.

Imagine that in the outset we were told that Sweden, without much in the way of restrictions at all, would be among the lowest in Europe for excess mortality? How much support would we have had for lockdowns here?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120344165#Comment_120344165

Never got that notification so only reading now.

I remember all of the above and my memory differs from yours. But I had asked you a question first, about Sweden...

My point that you ignored completely, was that Swedish version pf NPHET out right lied and held back information, but you don't find that a civil liberty issue??

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120345870#Comment_120345870

No, that would be because in my post which I think you are teferring to, their neighbouring country that the study was comparing them to, is in fact another Nordic country. Norway.

Is that some sort of trick or illusion? Do you think?

Neighbouring country, similar in more ways than not including healthcare and culture. Except one locked down and the other didn't. A perfect study. Confounders removed.

But being dismissed as some sort of slight of hand by you, ignored by others, why?

Because Sweden was found wanting.

Goldengirl

@AdamD but the big difference in the people in Sweden and Ireland who couldn't work from home was that Ireland helped people financially with the PUP and other measures.

No picnic anywhere especially for essential workers who had no choice but to go out everyday to work all through it.

But many people in Sweden became infected gping out to work with no other recourse.

They were predominantly in less affluent and minority groups, which has shone a light on how inequatable the Swedish response was.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120347273#Comment_120347273

What about the comparison with Finland? Should they not be included in the comparison? And for that matter other Northern European countries?

It seems to me that those looking to criticize Sweden are now hunting around for the few countries that had fewer excess deaths and having found one or two (that happen to be the very lowest in Europe) are using these examples to prove to themselves that Sweden failed.

Let's be honest here. The reason some of us don't like the Swedish approach is not that it was wrong (the figures prove they were not wrong) but rather that it is different to what was the conventional wisdom at the time. Even the figures put forward selectively by lockdown enthusiasts show that Sweden did comparatively well.

Since many of us were arguing for tighter restrictions and lockdowns here and spreading fear and misinformation to support these views, we don't like that Sweden took a different approach and still came out better than most in Europe. I would not be surprised if Sweden turns out to have done better than Ireland once the age profiles of the two countries are taken into consideration, Sweden having a generally older population than Ireland and therefore more susceptible to the virus.

I think for most people having actually studying the figures, Sweden did quite well and certainly a lot better than the so called experts would have had us believe at the start of the outbreak.

Goldengirl

Just whataboutery!

Address the fact that they compare so badly in that study with their nearest and most similar neighbour, Nordic or otherwise. You keep deflecting without dealing with it. Why?

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120347420#Comment_120347420

But they don't, I'm afraid. They come out worse than some neighbours but they come out better than Finland, a close neighbour. And, again, they come out better than most Northern European countries.