FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

sryanbruen · 21-05-2022 12:05PM

Look far away from the GFS 06z Gonzo 🙈😂

Gonzo · 21-05-2022 01:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093312#Comment_119093312

Another chilly run but it is even more isolated from the rest of the set compared to the 0z, almost on it's own. Over the past 5 days or so most of the GFS operational runs are outliers. The most likely scenario is we should get some high pressure ridging for a few days and temperatures a bit above average probably high teens to low 20s. Majority are between +5 and +10C. Good to see the rainfall being reduced significantly as well, even in the short term.

As for the long term models many of them are suggesting a very dry June but it remains to be seen how warm or how cool it could become. Temperatures during June could also see saw at times. Some models are showing extreme heat getting rather close to us while others have northerlies or north-easterlies but most of the runs are dry. Plenty of interesting model watching to come over the next few weeks.

Meself · 21-05-2022 03:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119093559#Comment_119093559

Praise the lord !

If anyone wants to leave a Glastonbury festival outlook nearer the time (24th / 26th June) I'd be very grateful. Not wishing to derail this thread tho.

sryanbruen · 21-05-2022 09:56PM

Not a great set of afternoon and evening runs it has to be said. GFS is pretty messy like its 06z and quite cool to start June, fortunately it was even more of an outlier.

ECM has gone similar to the GFS. It initially shows a few fine days but the anticyclone later retrogresses to the NW and sends a shallow trough south which would bring cool and wet conditions to end May and start June.

GEM is settled and pleasant whilst showing signs of retrogression like the ECM towards the end of its run.

pauldry · 21-05-2022 10:31PM

One thing about the forecasts is theyr mainly wrong. E.g All the models want to bring heat to us that week coz the weather's usually good that week most years but this is probably going to go belly up or 20c at best.

Even in Spain they got it wrong in Madrid today . 36c n sunny they said. Instead they got 36c n then intense thunderstorms.

Gonzo · 22-05-2022 12:26AM

I would say even the forecast for Ireland for the past 2 days has been off compared to what they the models were showing up to Thursday evening. The Thundery showers were more or less a bust yesterday, some short lived showers early in the afternoon yesterday and a mostly dry mid afternoon to evening across the country. The thundery stuff really only got going in Northern Ireland and had very little affect in the republic. Today which was meant to be fairly showery was mostly dry across the country apart from isolated light showers and overall nowhere as unsettled as what was originally promised but that is a good thing.

Unfortunately the cool to chilly northerly/north-easterly outbreak at the end of the month is beginning to gain more support. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

OldRio · 22-05-2022 10:16AM

These models might as well flip a coin for all the good they do.

sryanbruen · 22-05-2022 10:19AM

ECM much the same story this morning, a few fine days then retrogression takes place and we go into a cool northerly flow with a shallow trough plunging southward that would as I said bring showers.

GFS is slightly better on its 0z run. It brings us into a cool northerly flow by the very end of the month into June but there's less low pressure or any shallow troughs involved so whilst cool it would at least be mostly dry and far from a washout. It is again on the cooler end of the ensembles but not a complete outlier this time whilst the ensemble mean has gotten a little warmer rather surprisingly. Only talking relatively speaking, no heatwave or dramatic warm spell. The ensemble mean shows a nice ridge from the Azores over top of us but the signal is not that strong. 06z hasn't updated when I am writing this post.

GEM is somewhat in line with the GFS in showing a dry and cool theme (unusual in summer) but difficult to tell at the end of its run whether it would go unsettled or not as the anticyclone has fully retrogressed northward with only a weak ridge near us.

A pleasant final weekend of May at least looks to have some decent confidence going for it anyway regardless of what happens after. Wouldn't take that as gospel though and wait 'til Wednesday or Thursday at earliest before it's certain given forecasts lately.

Meteorite58 · 22-05-2022 11:56AM

Yeah no clear patterns, nothing standout but a continuous signal of some milder weather at the end of the week and over the weekend into the early days of the following week perhaps, could see temperatures into the low 20's and rainfall amounts should be low as the Hp builds, low confidence in the models here too atm as expressed by others.

ZX7R · 22-05-2022 04:14PM

I think people need to bear in mind that meteorological weather data that Russia shared with its European counterparts has ceased and all commercial flights to Russia witch also gathered this information coupled with a large no fly zone civil across a large part of Eastern European countries plus a large reduction of release of weather balloons. Is going to have an enormous impact on all the charts.

A large swade of information not been fed into the computers at the moment.

Meteorite58 · 23-05-2022 09:08PM

The last two runs from the ECM have dropped the temps a fair bit next weekend, mid to high teens from fri, high teens Sat , scraping the mid teens Sun and much cooler further North, goes on to produce a couple of cooler days early the following week before heating up to the high teens /low 20's again Basically the HP gets stalled to our S as LP takes hold in Scandinavia / N Europe . Will be interesting to see if warm humid S'lys /SE'lys get drawn up from the Tropics like what the charts below ae beginning to show but they are at odds with the GFS. GEM more in line with the ECM but a lot warmer in Southern counties . Intriguing. Bound to get some warmer weather soon, aren't we ! 😂

sryanbruen · 23-05-2022 10:25PM

I've seen suggestions now that this increasingly likely (notable) cool end to May and start to June could be down to what is going on in the Pacific and the models are possibly overreacting to it much like they tend to do when get those crazy blocked charts in winter. Now yes you could say, well it is probably much more likely to happen this time of year given the demise of the stratospheric polar vortex which is what limits blocking potential in winter and as well as just natural human negative thinking psychology.

If their thinking with the Pacific amplification is correct then any cool, blocked pattern could be relatively short and we might find ourselves in a warmer situation sooner than we think after the first couple days of June.

Huge disclaimer here though that this is only a possible solution. It's always possible that the models could be correct in sustaining the high latitude block near Greenland and Iceland as we tend to see in our worst summers like 2007, 2008 and 2012 or even the incredibly unlikely scenario of the cool weather completely vanishing.

As a sun and warm lover, hopefully it changes for the better soon!

sryanbruen · 24-05-2022 12:19PM

Very good GFS 06z with lots of fine weather to start June and we don't get the northerly flow until nearing the end of the run. It is not an outlier, most of the GEFS are keeping us warmer than average, at least in terms of 850hPa temperatures. However, in terms of other models, it is on its own.

ECM in complete contrast shows a very cool pattern with lots of upper level troughs in a northeasterly airflow that would give showery, damp conditions frequently. An awful run for sunshine and warmth.

GEM goes cool but is less unsettled than the ECM with the mid-Atlantic ridge trying to hold on by its fingertips over Ireland through the final few days of May before it becomes a proper Greenland block through early June.

konman · 24-05-2022 02:04PM

@sryanbruen great to see you active in this forum again.

Gonzo · 24-05-2022 06:11PM

GFS 12z rolling out and a further push towards warm weather. High pressure taking control of our weather from this weekend with temperatures rising to the high teens perhaps touching 20C by Sunday. Low twenties to mid twenties next week before cooler easterlies lowers temperatures towards the end of next week. If this veriifies it will be much milder than the GFS models have been suggesting over the past few days.

High pressure remains in place throughout next week and looks fairly dry. In this scenario Ireland would hold onto warmer temperatures compared to the UK with temperatures back to average by next weekend. At this stage I would take a few days of low 20s with open arms considering we haven't really have any warm days so far this year.

The cooler easterly winds is extended range stuff so all to play for yet. I would like to see the ECM falling in line with the current GFS output as the ECM is currently suggest a very cool and quite unsettled outlook. The current GFS output could well be a warm outlier so caution would be advised before getting in any way excited about this.

The GEM is similar to the ECM with much cooler weather on the horizon so for now the GFS is on it's own with this warm and settled outlook. Everything past Saturday can be taken with a large pinch of salt until the models come into agreement with each other.

Lets see what the ECM 12z brings which should roll out shortly.

sryanbruen · 24-05-2022 06:40PM

Thanks Gonzo, GFS another solid run. We become very lucky in avoiding a direct influence of that northerly which gives a poor enough few days for eastern coasts of the UK. Looking at the GEFS which are updated to June 3rd now, it's very much an outlier or on the highest end of the range and there's less warm members compared to the 06z run this morning.

We await the ECM!

P.s. thanks very much @konman. It's been challenging to keep motivated with the benign weather to post about much that's been going on for a long time and with life generally being busier nowadays too. Then there's the whole silly Boards makeover. Ah well, just seeking the fine weather to make a return now after this mediocre May.

sryanbruen · 24-05-2022 09:34PM

ECM a slight improvement on its 12z but still very much a cool run dominated by northeasterly winds. It's more settled at least with less shallow trough galore. Baby steps!

To sum up this afternoon and evening...

Meteorite58 · 24-05-2022 10:32PM

ECM definitely better from +120hrs , Sunday now looking into the low 20's and showing it to get up to the mid to high teens out to the end of the run . Rainfall amounts much lower also on the current run, GFS still showing warmer by a few degrees next week, UKMO modest temps out to next Tues, GEM the warmest getting up to the mid 20's.

So taking the improving ECM , GFS and GEM would think that the trend is looking up for warmer , more calm and dryer weather out to the end of next week.

After this Thurs the models are showing low rainfall amounts.

Gonzo · 25-05-2022 12:12AM

The GFS 18z ramps up the warmth even further compared to the 6z and 12z and keeps the high pressure anchored over Ireland and UK for longer with home grown heat building day by day beginning from Saturday/Sunday. Temperatures quickly get to low 20s and widespread mid 20s during next week with temperatures possibly getting to 27C on this particular run. This dry and warm to localy hot conditons last into next weekend and continue into the following week with low to mid 20s still possible into the second week of June.

During the second week of June we lose the warmth a bit as a battleground breaks out between cooler air trying to invade from the north-west but at the same time the Azores has another go at bringing warmer weather towards us but we're well outside the reliable time frame by this point, however the Azores looks like it won't take long before it may get going again.

I would definitely bank this run as it brings at least 7 to 10 days of temperatures into the 20s throughout the entire country with no much influence of cooling sea breezes. It's worth noting this is probably another warm to hot outlier as this is almost as good as it can get for us for early June. If this was July we would be looking at temperatures hitting 30C. Hopefully we will get more charts like this in the second half of June and July. There isn't a sniff of chilly northerlies or north-easterlies on this run.

sryanbruen · 25-05-2022 10:58AM

After showing better and better runs yesterday, the GFS 0z has now backtracked again to other models in showing a cool start to June but with high pressure close by, it would be mainly dry at least. There has been a definite cooldown in the overall ensembles too with less warm solutions as compared to yesterday. 06z is updating as I speak.

The ECM 0z has gone back to shallow trough galore which would bring cool and showery conditions. GEM is similar, maybe slightly more settled with more ridging from the high latitude block towards Ireland from time to time. Still not a great run. UK Met as far as it goes is also similar.

All in all, the best thing to say this morning is there's no washout. However, it looks decidedly cool now relative to the time of year from all models with northerly or northeasterly winds dominating.

See you this evening with the 12z runs, enjoy your Wednesday.

Gonzo · 25-05-2022 11:33AM

I was hoping the GFS would continue with the runs from yesterday and other models to agree today but sadly it looks like no warmth on the horizon and we're back to April like temperatures. 6z rolling out now and it looks cool and unsettled to say the least.

I suppose this very prolonged warmer than average spell had to come to an end after almost a year of it and it looks like the weather gods have chosen the start of summer for a shift to a colder pattern.

let's hope this only brief and not something that will run on for weeks.

Edit: GFS 6z still rolling out. There is hope things may begin to warm up and settle down in week 2 of June but instead we enter a cool north-west to south-east flow from the Atlantic. Could June be our first cooler than average month of 2022?

pauldry · 25-05-2022 11:42AM

The weather models have completely gone down the drain these months. Is it since Covid? Like if you see a chart even for just a couple of days time it's wrong 90percent of the time. We'll in Sligo anyways.

Another noticeable thing about this year is the low day temperature profile. We have still to hit 20c in Sligo and its nearly June and yet we have had an odd night this year that's been 14c.

Even worldwide bar the small pockets of extreme heatwaves it's been mainly cool. Still Summer could be an absolute roaster (who knows) but the models are just eye candy really. Even the pre 120hrs ones are unreliable.

E.g Last weekend was forecast to have 25mm of rain in total in Sligo (Thursdays forecast). In actual fact there was 4.2mm

Light showers and cool air with plenty of sun is what wev had the past 10 days bar some very heavy rain last Monday week. Still many areas inland (even in Sligo) have had much heavier rain showers.

Less rain seems the pattern for the rest of May with moderate temperatures probably 18 or 19c at best. I doubt we'll see any mid twenties any time soon.

Gonzo · 25-05-2022 11:52AM

Temperatures have been very underwhelming this May. Most of the country has still to reach 20C, many places haven't seen any higher than 19C this year which can happen as early as March so despite the warmer temperature anomalies, the daytime temperatures in Ireland at least have been very dissapointing considering June is less than a week away now. If the current model output is correct we may have to wait till mid June until somewhere in Ireland pushes past 20C.

Elmer Blooker · 25-05-2022 12:46PM

Worrying charts, looking very 2007-12 to me.

It could be one of those summers with places such as Donegal and Scotland being the driest places in these islands.

Too early to panic but worrying as I’ve said 😮

sryanbruen · 25-05-2022 08:58PM

Much the same this evening really. All models now certainly singing from the same hymn sheet. High latitude blocking, a lovely trough pencilled in over or near us (sarcastic with the 'lovely' part), cool northeasterly winds by Monday. Would be a lot of cloud with showers I'd have thought.

As Elmer Blooker says, these are not the kind of charts you like to be seeing around now if you seek warmth and are the kind of charts that characterise poor summers. Fortunately, not always the case as drivers can force changes in the atmosphere like what would have happened in 1995 for example - a cool and cloudy first half to June dominated by northerly winds contrasted with an exceptional sunny and very warm second half which would lead us into Ireland's warmest summer on record. Or will this high latitude block sustain to give prolonged cloudy, cool conditions? What's becoming certain now anyway is meteorological summer 2022 won't start off on a particularly warm note.

pauldry · 26-05-2022 01:07AM

Wow that latest GFS is pure muck.

Rain every day. Temperatures 14c to 18c mostly. However hopefully coz its the pub run its pure fantasy.

Might not turn out good but hopefully not as much of a washout as those charts.

At this stage I'll take 18c and dry.

eon1208 · 26-05-2022 08:43AM

Sryan. Would you give an educated guess on how much precipitation is likely between this afternoon and Saturday week next in the south midlands. Would really appreciate your take on this.. Thanks

Gonzo · 26-05-2022 11:25AM

GFS 00z is the perfect summer horror show, real shades of Summer 2007-2012 with cold winds, very cool temperatures and rain every day right up to mid June. This is starting to look like a major pattern change, the biggest we've seen in an entire year to something far cooler and more unsettled that what we've been used for a very long time. The one thing that remains to be seen is how long this will go on for. Is this summer going down the tubes or will we see a recovery by mid June.

If this was January or February we would probably be getting close to December 2010 level of cold with no shortage of snow/blizzards. I would have given my kidneys for these sort of charts in the middle of winter but this is the last thing we want to see to start the summer.

Edit: The GFS 6z remains very cool and wet. There is a chance of some frost from Sunday evening and on various nights next week with temperatures getting down to 1 or 2C in places during the night. I'm not sure i've ever seen a frost in June before but we're in with a real chance after Sunday. Daytime temperatures next week generally 10 to 15C but could go as low as 7 or 8C during rainfall in northern areas.

pauldry · 26-05-2022 12:37PM

Hurray exciting weather even if its bad. Beats light showers n wind. We had a max temperature in Sligo of 8.5c on the June Bank Holiday Sunday about 10 years ago. It rained all day and there was hail in the evening clearance. Most of the rest since have been mild or warm.

We are due a cool Summer even a cooling period. Plus unfortunately we are due lots of rain to balance the relatively low daily amounts wev seen lately.

Hope we don't have to buy oil this Summer. It'll prob cost 2k but yes though charts are grim if of interest.

The HorsesMouth · 26-05-2022 02:39PM

The ECM doesn't look too bad out past the 4th and onwards from what I've seen...certainly the days previously don't look hectic.

From my experience over the last few months with the charts is that we seem to see either wonderful charts that never come off but also horrific ones that never seem to come off either. My own simple view on it is if we can at least get rid of that wind that's been here most of the month then we are in for an improving situation.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST