FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Promising for an increase in Temperatures. ECM keeping the LP's out and toying with building HP. Drier on this run also, more so than the GFS. Could be seeing temps getting up to the 20C mark or so this coming weekend and into the following week, ECM showing warmer than the GFS at present.
Samy2012's day next Sat, just on the border of +120hrs, looks on the warm side up to the high teens for good parts of the country maybe touching 20C , looks like it might hold mostly dry also with light winds, fingers crossed 😅
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GFS back to pumping up the warmth on the 12z operational run for the third week of May, one to bank. (The 06z had a big area of high pressure but the wind was mainly easterly so wasn't feeding in as warm an airmass to the country but still relatively warm and very sunny with lots of dry weather). GEFS are currently out to day 11 when writing this post, the trend is certainly warmer than average. Just how warm we're talking will depend on the wind direction and how much sunshine there will be.
Background signals are supportive of a warm May going forward, significantly different to last year which was the coldest May since 1996. As ever though, will Ireland be on the periphery of any warm air advection from the south/southeast and under an area of low pressure? Will the low pressure be displaced far north enough along with the jet stream to allow ridges from the Azores to come our way? May is always one of the trickiest months to decipher what will occur due to the slack nature of everything and the month having the tendency to be blocked for climatological reasons.
Don't take that GFS literally, that's a golden scenario for anybody seeking warmth. This seems obvious to anybody who visits this forum regularly but it's always a good reminder for newcomers or those who forget and take what we post as gospel.
Watch this space. Not suggesting a heatwave. Not suggesting a scorcher on the way. But the possibility is there for something special to occur mid-month, dependent on the placement of high pressure. I will try and keep up to date if things develop but I can't guarantee due to either a busy schedule or the fact I still cannot stand the new Boards as of July last year. But even if I don't, I'm sure the regulars here will keep you up to date enough.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Models trending that bit wetter now out to +240hrs, could get a few spells of rain later Mon into Tues and possibly Weds also, not too much currently showing after that into the Weekend. ECM showing a warm couple of days at the end of next week from warm Southerlies, into the 20's , not far off what the GFS is showing but it is not showing as warm , one to watch out of interest.
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The coming week will be a bit more unsettled than what we've been used to over recent weeks. Tomorrow is going to be a wet and cool day, although overall not as miserable as last weekend. Western and northern areas should clear up late morning or early afternoon with southern and eastern areas mostly wet or damp for much of tomorrow with a clearance by evening. Saturday and Sunday will be quite warm with temperatures possibly reaching 18 or 19C in many areas and will be mostly dry.
Next week will be unsettled particularly in western and northern areas with up to 50mm of rainfall in western areas and 10 to 20mm of rainfall across eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will be more average between 12 and 16C generally during the course of next week. It will feel cool particularly under persistant rainfall and may be fairly breezy at times with chilly north-west winds.
What happens after next week is still very much up in the air particularly for Ireland. The latest GFS run is saying no to warm and settled weather for Ireland as an area of low pressure breaks off from Greenland and makes a beeline for Ireland while the UK will be enjoying summer, although no heatwave for them either on this particular run.
The above solution is unlikely to verify being so far out, this could be a cool and unsettled outlyer and the GFS 12z will most likely be different again, but goes to show what a knifeedge this is between the warm and settled and cool and unsettled.
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The GFS 00z was a good one, not heatwave terrority but not far off (for the time of year). The ensembles look encouraging that we will see a signifcant warm up during the 3rd week of May, although there is no guarantee that things will become settled just yet. The BBC will always be a bit more upbeat as England will have a higher chance of sunshine and warmth than we do. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days before this comes into the reliable timeframe.
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Just an update on the possibility of a warm and settled second half to May.
The following 5 days will be rather unsettled over Ireland with a temporary halt to the overall much milder than average temperature anomolies which have persisted almost intact since June last year. Showers or outbreaks of rain will dominate the weather from tomorrow to Friday or early Saturday. Temperatures over the next few days will be several degrees cooler than today, around the 12 to 16C range so it will feel much more typical of April or early May.
The ECM long range models are currently predicting plenty of high pressure to dominate during the 3rd and 4th week of May. The CFS is still calculating temperatures between 2 and 3C or more above average during the second half of May with plenty of high pressure around. It is still too early to tell weather this will verify as the positioning of the high pressure and wind direction will be crucial to how warm it gets. If we get a light south-easterly wind around the high, we could be looking at temperatures as warm as 23 or 24C under perfect conditions. If the high draws in a more direct easterly from Poland/Russia then expect highs to be lower, maybe high teens at best. If the high moves to our west we could end up dragging down a northerly or north-westerly and this would be cooler again.
ECM looks settled and warm towards the end of it's run.
ECM bringing temperatures of 20 to 23C with verm warm upper air temperatures for the time of year.
The GFS is similar with some fine settled and rather warm weather early next week and lasting possibly a week or more.
For now the GFS is still playing around with high pressure dominating from next weekend with some warm breezes from central Europe before backing into more of a direct easterly which would cool things down a bit. There is potential here for things to maybe turn more unsettled with lows developing under the Scandi high.
On this particularly run Ireland stays mostly dry with high pressure continuing to dominate right to the end.
We are still 6 days away from the beginning of this settled spell, how warm it gets and how long it stays settled for can change alot over the coming week. Fingers crossed we get perfection with this one with hopefully a prolonged warm and settled spell.
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Big downgrades to the warm and settled spell on this mornings models.
ECM turns things settled during the weekend but the Atlantic breaks things down as soon as Monday 16th and we turn rather cool with bands of rain moving into the west. Ireland and western Scotland generally turns unsettled with the Atlantic breaking through.
The warm spell is confined to England and wales on this particular run. Let's hope this is an outlier.
The GFS is a bit of a mixed bag but not as grim as this mornings ECM run.
GFS turns settled for the weekend and this continues till about Tuesday with western areas perhaps turning unsettled from the Monday.
All areas turn unsettled by Wednesday with showers or longer outbreaks of rain.
Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled with bands of rain and showers crossing the country.
By Friday 20th of May things may settle down again but low pressure never looks too far away from us.
The GEM is more unsettled than either the ECM or GFS, it goes all in on bringing back the Atlantic.
Let's see where we go from here. Overall my confidence of a settled warm and sunny spell is now looking much reduced. We should still get 2 settled days next weekend but the following week does look rather unsettled and all models are saying no to a prolonged dry and settled spell. Let's see what happens over the next few days, I hope we can get back to some upgrades. If this afternoons model runs are similar to this mornings or worse then we may not get much more than a dry weekend.
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The warm weather that had been hinted on the models disappeared like the cold weather being sought in the winter ! 😆
More mobile Atlantic on the way with frontal activity, temperatures not too bad, away from windward coasts getting above the mid teens at least for many, breezy at times, at least the deep area of LP seems to be keeping off the W coast next Tues, looks like a few waves could form and one to watch on Weds could get quite wet and a bit windy over Ireland. Rainfall totals look set to add up over the Western half of the country, as NADGFY was saying on the Spring Thread 'A wet and windy May fills the barn with corn and hay' . One thing is that the frontal weather goes through fairly quickly so plenty of dry spells also to be experienced I would think.
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If there's a risk to this ridge based on the modelling at the moment, it's that the placement may be too far north or west which wouldn't favour bringing in airmasses from a particularly warm direction to the country.
Last few days the GFS has been pretty much adamant on showing anything other than a warm end to May and first few days of June with at least a couple of days of warm weather. Some runs have been more stubborn with the ridge. However, much more messy this morning with the ridge tending to become a high latitude blocking feature around Iceland (we say this every year, where was this in December/January 😏). There would be a fair amount of cloud and not especially mild or warm away from some sheltered western areas, fairly cool for the time of year in northeasterly winds. Eventually, a trough undercuts the blocking and gives us unsettled westerlies. In those days of the GFS showing warmth, the ECM was the one showing the high latitude blocking instead. The two models have traded blows now and the ECM is the warmer, drier of the two with ridging very close to or over the country for many days. Winds mainly easterly in nature so maybe a bit cooler along eastern coasts but the west would be pretty warm.
GEM is sort of a combination of the two with high latitude blocking trying to set up after a pleasant few days of high pressure dominated conditions then it gets into a mess much like the GFS.
The UKMO shows that ridge from the Azores successfully reaching us by Friday.
ECM would be very nice indeed. Ireland the warmest place for a change.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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yeah the GFS seems to have flipped from a very warm outlier to an almost cool/chilly outlier with the high going to Iceland instead.
A big shift from yesterday.
To what we have now:
This would result in temperatures mid to high teens instead of mid twenties. However both solutions are unlikely to verify as they are both at the extreme end of the scale. In any case it looks like any high pressure or warmth would be short lived with the form horse galloping in from the west fairly smartly soon afterwards. 06z beginning to rollout now.
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