Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Exactly. Why sign a deal you don't like when you already have the power to impose whatever deal you like (that is the claim JRM is making)? Makes no sense. We only signed it as we thought it would be changed later? In what world does that make any sense? You gave away all bargaining power on the assumption that the other side would, after not giving in during negotiations, would simply give in later for no benefit?

The bit that always gets me is that there is never any follow up to statements like this? What reforms? When? What happens if the EU don't accept this? Why weren't these reforms included within the original negotiation, they had 3 years? What cost v benefit analysis has been undertaken? Who will cover for those people that may lose out in the short term?

But instead, even all all this time, JRM and the likes are simply allowed to make these statements and nobody says a word.

Here is the Tony Connelly's take on the NI Protocol and the latest moves by the UK Government,

Basically they are threatening once again to go against their obligations and signed treaty's to win support as they are facing crises of their own making at home. Will be interesting to see what happens when the elections results are out. I see there are mentions that the DUP will collapse Stormont if Sinn Fein has the First Minister. Seems right, when you are in the position of power you expect the opposition to follow the conventions that is in place, but when you lose said power due to your own incompetence, then you just collapse Stormont because.

And the Tories will use you to keep the wolves of their own party at bay. What a mess.

I imagine if you are any sort of business person or self employed unionist or even connected to one somehow you would have to be a serious hardcore unionist to get behind the stupid idea that NIP is bad for the region.

Still the same old denial.

Nothing the EU does is ever wrong.

They have been weak and passive and we will be the ones paying the price. You'll see in two weeks time exactly what I'm talking about. The protocol is going to be scrapped.

There is no getting around it. They believe Ukraine has given them the cover they need - and they are right. I never believed the EU was going to act anyway.

What's going to be unveiled in legislation will go way beyond Article 16.

This. Every single threat the UK has made to give itself powers to ignore the WA, invoke Art 16, etc, etc - and they have issued such threats many, many times - has come to nothing. If Kermit thinks they're going to follow through this time, he's been living under a rock for the past two-and-a-half years.

This will come to nothing for the same reason that all the others have come to nothing. If implemented, they will achieve nothing, and will only damage the UK. Issuing the threats may have some domestic political advantage in helping Johnson cling to office (but it's short-term advantage; that's why he has to keep issuing more threats); actually following through doesn't even have that advantage, so it won't happen.

Kermit's view that all this is happening because of the EU's weakness is completely the wrong end of the stick. All this is happening because of Johnson's weakness.

David Frost, gave a speech last night. In line with his recent speeches, he attempts to lay the blame for the deal at the foot of the EU and make the claim that somehow the EU had tricked them and not played fair.

A very telling line in the speech (IMO) is the following: (talking about the final deal in 2019)

"We faced a choice - take this deal and sort out the detail in 2020 or fail to deliver Brexit on 31 October. We decided the lessor risk was to push the deal through and trust we could sort out the detail with the EU later"

That is quite a staggering admission. He, effectively, accepts that they knew the deal was not what they wanted, that there were risks with it but that for some political expedience and advantage they took the deal. Now the EU won't renegotiate the deal, which he just accepted was poor, and therefore it is their fault.

It is quite a staggering admission and in any normal political system it would see Johnson removed from office and Frost consigned to the dustbin. But such is the irrationality of Brexit, and its supporters, that it will hardly be commented upon and if it is Frost will be treated as if there was never any other way.

He never explained what happened to his stated position that the UK was always ready to walk away and that No Deal was not only not a problem but very much on their minds. Thats quite a turnaround to go from saying that they didn't need a deal to accepting that they had no real choice but to accept a poor deal.

One also has to remember that the UK were offered a longer transition period but rejected it.

But that is the thing, Frost lat night accepted that they weren't mislead or outmanoeuvred. They simply ran out of time, a time limit they imposed on themselves, and then decided that political concerns trumped the actual outcome of the deal and needed to win an election far more than the country needed a proper deal.

They then went and signed the deal knowing the damage it could potentially cause, but Johnson needed to have his win. He needed to be seen to deliver Brexit, to get Brexit done. In fact in the midst of the partygate scandals, 'He got Brexit done' was a common line trotted out to defend Johnson and make the case that he was simply too good to et such a scandal take him down.

This was pretty obvious to most observers, but to have it stated from the main negotiator, and with that no hint that he realises the damage he has caused, is amazing. But due to the nature of Brexit, Frost clearly feels comfortable to be able to say it, knowing that Brexiteers, the Tory party, the government and much of the media, is so tied into Brexit that there won't actually be any serious examination of what he said. The headline will undoubtably be that the EU swindled them.

It seems to me that Frost is being basically dishonest in two respect here.

First, he presents one choice as "take the deal and sort out the detail in 2020". What the UK actually wanted or intended to do was to change the already-settled detail in 2020. He's more or less admitting that they signed up to detail that they didn't intend to abide by and - although he doesn't say this - they lied about this not only to the EU but also to the UK electorate in the 2019 election campaign.

Secondly, he says it was a choice between signing a deal that they didn't intend to observe and "fail to deliver Brexit on 31 October". What he omits to say was that 31 October was, for the UK, an entirely self-imposed deadline; Johnson adopted it because he thought it made him look all decisive and hairy-chested and butch. If having to meet this deadline limited the UK's options in the way that Frost is trying to suggest, well, they didn't have to meet this deadline. He's presenting this stark choice between two bad options as something forced on the UK when, in fact, it was something the UK imposed on itself.