Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118850551#Comment_118850551

Not according to Sunak yesterday at a committee hearing. He just said it was too early to say and that there were lots of factors, although he couldn't explain what those factors might be.

After talking in circles for a bit he then came out with the line that a drop in trade was always inevitable given the move away from the EU. Which would come as somewhat of a surprise given that anybody saying there would be negative impacts from Brexit was labeled Project Fear.

But what his reply shows, is that the government has accepted that trade is, and will continue to be negatively impacted in the short term. And yet, as they have failed to do throughout the entire process, they have offered absolutely nothing in terms of any thing even resembling a plan of how to deal with it.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118850604#Comment_118850604

He was on some a.m. talk show spouting the same thing - basically, 'yeah, this is bad and what's expected and we don't know yet what to do.' And guess what - he'll be reelected at the next election, whenever that is. So will BoJo. UK government is 'democracy as a pantomime' afaics. One unelected house of government with 800 members, many with dodgy backgrounds, that seemingly accomplishes nothing, and a weekly 'question time' where it comes down to who has the best put downs, while the majority run rampant jamming through bad legislation like the most recent immigration laws.

Leroy42

It what will come as no surprise to anyone, the UK are looking at postponing the introduction of import controls.

Taking back control by relying on the EU to keep consumers safe!

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1508891686553980930?t=vlb0eg043mu-CU-elkWuvQ&s=19

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118853610#Comment_118853610

Yes. It seems - once again - that Brexit works best when it's not implemented. But Brexiters still seem unable to join the dots and draw the blindingly obvious conclusion.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118854383#Comment_118854383

It's a double whammy, isn't it? There are no real import controls so companies exporting to the UK aren't facing as much friction to keep up trade, but those companies in the UK are facing friction as the EU is imposing control.

Leroy42

It really is a complete clown car at this stage. At what point are the voters actually going to start asking what the point of it all was? 6 years, billions of pounds spent, massive time wasted, lost trade, more hassle for UK immigrants living in Spain, loss of local funding

You have David Frost, the very same David Frost that negotiated the deal, and lest we forgot was a pretty truculent and antagonistic player throughout, constantly complaining that its a terrible deal and someone really should do something about it. Have the cabinet, and plenty of the party, seem to think that Art 16 is a 'get out of jail free' card, meaning that the EU needs to offer them a better deal.

And then the remaining Brexiteers who still think that WTO terms (no deal) is actually the way to go.

Seth Brundle

Given that London needs some good news, I presume they will try and get this deal done despite the predicted downsides.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/canada-vows-to-put-hormone-treated-beef-in-uk-shops-as-post-brexit-trade-talks-start-41496527.html

The people of NI will soon realise more of the benefits of the NIP as a result but I guess the DUP will still be calling for access to this hormone-treated beef to remain aligned with GB.

yagan

Just catching up on this thread and regarding visiting NI I was reminded of crossing into North Cyprus years before Cyprus was an EU member. I think at the time because Cyprus didn't recognise North Cyprus they wouldn't let you reenter with a NC stamp in your passport, so the compromise was when you entered North Cyprus on foot at the main crossing in Nicosia they stamped a slip of paper which you then had to carry in your passport. Then on the reverse trip you remove the slip and the Cypriot passport control pretend you were never in North Cyprus.

I reckon what will happen is London will just pretend EU tourists simply don't visit Northern Ireland.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118855747#Comment_118855747

That scheme also worked for those who visited Israel and Arab countries - only they had to have two passports - as Israel insisted on stamping the passport and so did the Arabs after searching for the Israeli stamp.

All it will take is for NI to state they will not be checking for the UK visa for any visitors to NI at all.

Would that be a devolved responsibility?

Sam Russell

They have given up on devolution for a while - or for ever, depending on the NI Protocol progress (if any).

54and56

Very quiet in here given the news that the EU have issued a permanent solution to the UK -> NI medicines issue which some Brexiteer's were getting so giddy about not to mention the fact there are reports that the only thing which prevented BoJo from pulling the A16 trigger recently was Rishi Sunak who I assume argued the potential economic impact from the EU reaction would make the current cost of living crisis, much of which is a direct consequence of Brexit, a lot lot worse and not worth whatever the perceived political gain might be with the ERG/DUP merchants.

Leroy42

I wouldn't believe those reports about A16. Reads like a 'Hold me back' story. Johnson is ready, and willing to trigger, but being held back by Rishi.

Johnson has had ample time, and remember it is his deal in the 1st place.

The reason why A16 hasn't been triggered is that Johnson knows it solves nothing and once triggered thats the last card thrown down.

Johnson signed the deal because, despite all the howling and gnashing of teeth, he knows it the only viable way forward.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118919638#Comment_118919638

Don't disagree but think we'll see some underhand actions close to the NI election which the DUP etc will be able to desperately point to as being some kind of "success" for their position on the NIP, bringing down Stormont etc etc.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118918894#Comment_118918894

Be kind of dumb for them to reignite their disputes with the EU during current events in Ukraine.

I thought at one point last year a crisis in Ukraine involving Russia that distracted the EU (and large member states) might be useful for the UK in that regard, but what has happened is just too big and too serious.

There is little that the UK govt. can do that surprises me any more, but taking another run at the EU over NI and likely forcing some EU response while this war is ongoing would seem very foolish.

They've been let get away with too much for too long by the EU as it is. If they just go and break the agreement completely (which is really what they would be doing) there will have to be a response, and things may spiral/escalate from there.

Much and all as the UK govt. despise the EU and live for going into "battle" with it, I think they know enough to hold back on those impulses given that there are real battles happening in Europe at the moment.

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118923458#Comment_118923458

Be kind of dumb for them to...

That hasn't been much of a bar in the way of this government so far.

joeysoap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118929158#Comment_118929158

😂 😂 😂

Sam Russell

I was in M&S the other day (not a place I frequent at all) and was surprised to see UK beef for sale, complete with UK flag on the packaging.

I thought that GB beef was banned from the EU. Now I did not inspect the produce - it might be NI stuff, but why the flag?

Seth Brundle

Not sure where they are sourcing their beef (NI or GB) but I think as long as the documentation is correct then beef can be exported from GB to the EU.

As for the Union flag, this is common on M&S products.

rameire

It's common to have most of their produce with the old flag.

You will also find their gammon with it.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118938926#Comment_118938926

It's not banned; it's simply more expensive due to the vet certifications etc. that is required to go with it when exporting into EU. I'd guess the meat is from NI along with most other animal based products in their store but I could be wrong on that count.

wexfordman2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118938926#Comment_118938926

The first sentence is your problem

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118939792#Comment_118939792

I was in M&S because of the person I was with - it was not through choice. The Irish prices are significantly higher the he exact same item in the UK - so they rip us off.

They import everything (well nearly) so that explains the higher prices.

joeysoap

M&S have a store in newry and another one in drogheda. Their mark-up ( on sterling) is unreal.

Capt'n Midnight

Way off topic but the M&S supplier map is here. Looks like the only things they get from this country are the "raw materials" Beef, Langoustine and Blue mussels. No manufactured goods, no clothes, not even dairy. On a side note all the wool is from the southern hemisphere.

If they had to compete on price alone they'd be gone, only the huge markup keeps them here.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118939314#Comment_118939314

Surely if the beef origin is GB (assumed because of the use of the UK flag) then surely there are tariffs to pay for importing beef from a third country?

Leroy42

The deal is that there are no tariffs or quotas

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118942439#Comment_118942439

Two important exceptions for TCA zero tariffs (may be more, have not checked recently):

1. Rule of origin must apply. This is sometimes difficult especially with complicated assembled products.
2. Product must be produced in GB - e.g. simple repacking of EU products are not enough for tariff free reexport to EU.

This is part of the reason paperwork (computer** entry and approval) needs to be carried out for everything from outside the EU.

Lars 😀

** If the UK computer system is in operation 🤣

Leroy42

Yes, this is where the lie of the deal becomes clear. No tariffs or quotas is of course good, the UK did well to get that, but the devil is in the detail in that it didn't remove the need for documentation or inspection. This, of course, was glossed over by Johnson et al when selling the deal and since then the need for paperwork and standards is being sold as the EU punishing Britain for leaving.

Frost, for example, has stated that this as never really their interpretation of the deal, they just assumed that the EU would simply let the UK operate as if it were still in the EU in terms of trade.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118942153#Comment_118942153

Beef - or anything else - from NI is produce of the UK and can be badged with a union jack. My guess would be that M&S badges it this way for the domestic market, and can't be arsed to badge it differently for the export market, which for them is tiny.

SFAIK there are no tariffs on beef imported from (any part of) the UK but, unless it's from NI, there will be veterinary and phytosanitary checks and controls which will add significantly to the cost, and in most circumstances will make the beef uncompetitive as against EU-produced beef.