Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

A Russian outlet accidentally released a report that they had lost approx 10k soldiers, that was last week. That's in line with current conservative estimates (Ukrainian propaganda puts a higher figure on it, whilst Russian propaganda puts a much lower figure on it)

For civilian casualties, the most solid figures we have are from the OHCHR, currently it's round 1,200 deaths, 2,000 injured. However those are just verified figures. The real figure will be quite a bit higher as many bodies are unaccounted for, buried in rubble, etc.

There's plenty of footage of the war online. In fact, due to drones, it's probably the most combat footage I've seen from any recent war. The photos and video have been independently used to determine, for example, how much equipment/vehicles both sides have lost (just with visual confirmation). The Russians have, for example, lost at least 360 main battle tanks, either destroyed, abandoned or captured. I say "at least", because that's just the documented losses with visual evidence.

On a side note, individuals who want to insert narratives about a situation are quick to claim we can't trust any info or that none exists. This helps them insert whatever story they want.

It is risky but if they destroyed it and were shot down after and killed wouldn't it still be viewed as a success and the price worth paying.

I agree with you broadly!

A few Caveats:

• I am not a military expert - i know what i know from books, and studying around the peripheries during my IR degree
• As of yet the Ukraine has not taken responsibility for the attack (happy to be corrected on this but my understanding is that the footage has been verified, including the choppers now - but as of yet 'who's choppers' they are is not confirmed)
• For the purposes of discussion im going to 'ASSUME' they were Ukrainian - and ignore the false flag possibilities etc

I mean like you said - absolutely legitimate to attack ones enemy. Regardless of location. Ukraine and Russia are at war - period. So any opportunity Ukraine has to damage/destroy/disable Russian assets - 100% justified and legitimate -

• In terms of sending Ukrainian aircraft to a location north of Kharkiv, it may have been a question of Russian Air defenses being aimed at the Ukraine. They probably expect any Ukraine Aircraft to be concentrated on attacking Russian units on Ukraine soil - It may also be that the Russia believed Ukraine lacked the capability to attack Russian targets beyond their own border -
• Russia must now balance against future attacks on depots/targets within their own border - it is prudent for them to do so, Ukraine has proved its capability of attacking within Russia - In attempting to defend and deter, Russia must redirect resources that could otherwise be deployed against the Ukraine. This is a benefit to the Ukraine of course.
• The location attacked is just north of Kharkiv so - certainly a logistics hub for Russian Units fighting in the east of Ukraine. 100% legitimate to retard support for enemy units adjacent to Kharkiv and the Donbas

Well in terms of Chinese retail - possibly - they could be of assistance. Russia seems to prefer to nationalize foreign premises/assets within their territory. Consider that some of the premises involved may belong to companies that deal extensively with China RE manufacturing and supply? China will be prudent. They will help Russia for sure - but i cannot see them doing anything to overtly effect their primary customers in the west - They will have observed the economic sanctions (and what amounts to a boycott) - and will certainly take note of this, and the public outcry against Russia

As for the EU - i fully expect Ukraine to join eventually now - too much has happened - all that remains to be seen is how much of Ukraine remains independent

As for NATO and the Donbas - not entirely sure i agree RE Donbas - when they regions in question 'declared independence' - the territory they 'claimed' was only partially under their control - We have also seen plenty of indications that not all Russian speaking Ukrainians are on board with annexation. I mean look i think it inevitable that Russia gets some land out of this - just unsure about the extent that could be viewed as realistically attainable - we dont know yet. If its legitimate referenda in the regions - who knows what way it breaks down. If Russia stages referenda - im sure 90-95% in favor - i saw someone in CA mentioned a possible ballot paper

-Do you wish Luhansk (LPR) to join the Russian Federation

• YES
• NO (I hereby Volunteer for life time hard labor in Siberian Work camp)

Japan has powerful allies ,and I highly doubt Putin is prepared to face more failures and embarrassment, because if Japan takes their Islands , Others will follow suit and remove Russians from their territories ,who's going to support Russia in multiple conflicts being they couldn't take ukraine ,now spread that across multiple fronts he can't hold or resupply without facing major obstacles

Yeah a huge portion of their military is designed on building supply lines for the front line, they are very effective at building pipelines, routes and railways. Except, when they come up against a modern and fluid opponent who can focus attacks in a variety of ways which would include hitting supply lines where possible.

Yes I’m sure vlad would have no qualms about lobbing a nuke at Japan.

On that note Mark Felton had an interesting/terrifying video on Russias latest nuke which the Americans label the Satan 2. Has a range of 18,000 miles which means it can be sent in any misleading direction (over both poles) before reaching its final target. Russia seemingly has the edge on the west with that terrifying technology.

So if Japan makes a move on these islands is that the trigger for world war 3?

The same edge that it enjoys with hypersonic missiles and MBTs?

I'm surprised Moscow hadn't been hit by bombings. If I was Ukrainian I'd be thinking of putting s bomb on an underground train or in an area where lots of Russians hang out. Basically bring the terror to them.

Japan actually don't need a nuclear weapons programme as they already retain the option to host US nuclear warheads, as Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands do already via "nuclear sharing". Of course China would be absolutely livid should this actually come to fruition, although former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is actively pushing for it.

Depending on what further steps Putin takes in Ukraine, and whether at some stage chemical weapons or tactical nukes are used, will I think determine whether Japan will rush through an act to actively come under the US umbrella by hosting US warheads. The world will then hold its breath once again... for the Chinese reaction.

We live in very precarious times, and with world tensions the way they are then something relatively minor is quite capable of triggering another World War.

That would probably make russians support the war.

Better off hitting military targets and infrastructure.

The railroads are key to Russia resupplying, they should be looking to destroy signals and staging/unloading areas

Why would you even think that killing ordinary civilian men women and children is that right thing to do ? Its not right in Ukraine and it wouldn’t be right in Russia .