Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118854411#Comment_118854411

It was, and remains, a valid concern.

But we (oldies) grew up with this nuclear threat that was always hanging over everything, for decades. A threat which did nothing to prevent USSR-on-US (and reciprocally) action-by-proxy here, there and everywhere the whole time (Korea, Vietnam, Africa, South America,…)

FWIW, I view that issue as border-bound: so long as Ukraine/the West/NATO/whoever do not engage targets within Russia’s borders, and restrict their movements to stay outside those at all times, anything else should ‘safe’ to target and eliminate, everywhere else.

For all his brinksmanship and real or imagined madness, Putin is unlikely to upend the MAD equilibrium and risk his own country, structures, etc. for the sake of goals outside of his own borders.

So long as countries put him down wherever and whenever he sticks his BMPs and T80s outside of his borders, but clearly never endanger the territorial integrity of Russia, he’d have no casus belli sufficiently strong to underwrite nuclear first strikes.

Would I stake my own, potentially irradiated and nuclear-winterised future on that opinion?

All other things being equal, yes, I think I would.

All other alternatives let Putin endure, revalidate his political and executive power at home time and again through autocratic propaganda, and continue to gamble, double-down and triple-down with proxy and non-proxy peripheral conflicts for years and years to come. So we might as well call his bluff and contain him (-more effectively) now.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118854271#Comment_118854271

😂... Some of you guys have really been swallowing the blue & yellow cool-aid these last few weeks!

40+ million people (most of whom have smartphones)... plus Ukrainian military (who are not banned from recording)... plus western journalists on the ground who are heavily biased towards Ukraine in this conflict.

Vs. 200,000 Russia troops (who have been banned from using phones during combat operations).

Plus, if you are Ukrainian, why would you record anything remotely pro Russian that might dent national morale?

Even if the Russians could record all of their victories on the battlefield, you would still likely have a massive discrepancy in footage because of the above factors. Considering the Russians are recording practically nothing, the result is that we get an extremely unbalanced picture of what is actually going on.

Some people are obviously just very gullible. Other people just desperately WANT to believe that the Ukrainians are embarrassing the Russians in battle. While others simply judge things based on the evidence they see... and since we are only seeing pro Ukrainian videos and images, there's very little other evidence to base your assessment on.

If Ukraine really were giving the Russians the runaround, however, as we are led to believe by western media... I dare say Zelensky and his government wouldn't be desperately begging for no-fly zones or taking NATO membership off the table... or suggesting neutrality. These are the moves you make, if you can clearly see the writing on the wall as regards the end result.

Are the Ukrainians giving Russia one hell of a bloody nose? Absolutely, I have no doubt they are. They seem tough as nails, there is really no denying this tbf. But this, or the mountains of propaganda we are being fed daily, shouldn't fool anyone into thinking that they are actually defeating the Russians. That would be a naive stance to take!

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856654#Comment_118856654

Why have the Russian troops been banned from using mobile phones in Ukraine? Now that they are no longer just on a 'military operation' across their Eastern border, does it make sense for their use to be banned? Wouldn't Russia benefit from the morale boost that would accrue from footage of success. Or are their top-brass afraid that there isn't much success to show?

Has Kyiv been taken yet btw?

Manach

In context of nuclear weapons, it is a double-edged sword of utility. A number of cold war theorists I've read suggested it was NATO's doctrine of potential usage in case the Soviets broke through West German defences that prevented the Warsaw pact from seeking military confrontation - hence the long peace window in Western Europe.

Brussels Sprout

If Ukraine really were giving the Russians the runaround, however, as we are led to believe by western media... I dare say Zelensky and his government wouldn't be desperately begging for no-fly zones or taking NATO membership off the table... or suggesting neutrality. These are the moves you make, if you can clearly see the writing on the wall as regards the end result.

You have added 2 + 2 here and gotten 5.

The reason they are begging for those things is because they believe that they would reduce the number of Ukrainians being murdered by Russian invaders.

They're doing pretty well without them but at the cost of many many many innocent lives. Unlike Putin, Zelensky actually cares about the lives of his citizens and is eager to reduce their suffering while defending Ukraine's sovereignty.

howamidifferent

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856762#Comment_118856762

The roaming charges are astranomical in Ukriane and Vlad doesnt want to pay.

kravmaga

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856762#Comment_118856762

Russian command and control on the ground in Ukraine is not working, the U.A.F. are jamming their comms.

Radios are reported to be faulty , batteries dying and the only way the Russian units can keep in contact was via mobile phone, however thats how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are targeting high value Russian assets in the field and Russian Generals .

Kyiv was never taken by the Russians, they have been pushed back in the past few days to 30km outside the city. Irpin is back in Ukranian control now also. Thats said Irpin is mostly destroyed by the Russians, trip wires and booby traps everywhere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK2aqvI9F0U&ab_channel=DailyMail

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GhtA1epAig&ab_channel=TheSun

Apiarist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856762#Comment_118856762

If this is a real question, then the answer is 'for security purposes'. Unless Russians bring their own cell network equipment, their phones would connect to the Ukrainian mobile cell network and then the Ukrainians can intercept any conversations or data being sent.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118851964#Comment_118851964

What cool heads??? If you mean Putins, there's no coolness there, except the cold calculating reptilian type. There are some glimmers of light starting to emerge, but that's only because militarily, he is losing, and that loss will increase as time goes on. I guarantee you that there would not even be talks if Putin was winning, regardless of what Zelensky accepts. This is not a win, by any definition for Putin. And neither will Zelensky accept any proposals that he is unhappy with. All of these deaths and destruction were not Zelinskys fault, any of them, and neither will what deaths and destruction are still to come. They are all totally on the head of Vladimir Putin, who ordered them. Nothing to do with cool heads prevailing, its all down to Putin. There has not been enough blood spilled yet to satisfy him.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856938#Comment_118856938

also videos being posted online can be geolocated and the russian military deem it a security risk after the 2014 takeover of crimea and part of donbass region

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860046#Comment_118860046

But talking a ukranian ready to go SIM card, jamming it into a phone and calling military headquarters doesn't seem to be a security issue... 😉

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118854009#Comment_118854009

Who knows - apparently the Russians big problem is trucks ..

Markcheese

Or really a lack of trucks -

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118856654#Comment_118856654

A lot of the news we receive is Ukraine-centric, however don't confuse that with general information. We know the current state of the battlefield, where the lines are, where the Russians are making progress, where they aren't. It's not an exact science, but we have a good idea of the overall situation and it can be corroborated.

The Ukrainians have (so far) been destroying Russian equipment/vehicles at a rate of approx 3 to 1. That's pretty extraordinary considering the strength of the overall Russian military machine vs the Ukrainian military. It doesn't automatically mean the Ukrainians are "winning", both sides can be losing the war, it's not mutually exclusive. However in Russia's case, they are the invader, if they are standing still it means they are going backwards.

You seem to be making sweeping generalisations about the "Western media" (whatever that is), I don't agree with them. There are two perspectives on this war, the Russian perspective, and the global perspective. The latter is (far) more accurate than the former. Again, we can't verify every precise detail, but we do have more than enough to build up a relatively accurate picture.

As for us being "fed propaganda", you are confusing support for Ukraine with verifiable information on the ground.

beggars_bush

big difference between the 'western' media freely reporting actual stories and events in the war and the russian propaganda being spun to the masses back in the motherland

tooka

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10672659/Putin-threatens-turn-Europes-gas-supplies-TOMORROW-countries-refuse-pay-roubles.html

putin did not get to where he is and stay where he is without being highly intelligent and being able to strategise

I predict that by the end of the year there will be a peace deal with Ukraine and he will have control of the Ukraine areas he wants and Ukraine will remain out of NATO

than he will turn his eyes on Moldova and will invade by year end, this will be a quick war as they will broker a deal that allows Russia to take control of certain areas, NATO will do nothing

But than he will attack the baltics before the next American presidential election, This invasion will be the one that will make or break Europe

if NATO and the EU stand by and do nothing than Putin knows he has carte Blanche and all Eastern Europe is for the taking

nothing will stop him unless UK and the EU are prepared to shoot his planes out of the sky

its very risky but if they do nothing the risk is even higher

Headshot

Is 2 days up already? ffs

fryup

Has Putin got us by the short & curlies??

Can we really get by without Russian Oil & Gas?

tooka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863484#Comment_118863484

please post about the topic and don’t worry about me.

ignore button and is there for a reason

Headshot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863492#Comment_118863492

You know this is finally a wake up call for the West and it was very much needed.

Our Governments have been over reliant on oil far to long and we need to go greener and get away from countries that use oil to bribe and threaten us. Start with insulating houses, little things like this will go far.

fryup

^^^

You're a wishful thinking hippy i take it?

tooka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863536#Comment_118863536

the green option is nonsense

our economy like all of the first world is built on cheap non renewable energy - carbon based

to change this would mean to move millions of people into severe poverty

just witness the energy price increases the last few weeks in Ireland and inflation spiking and which I think will get to plus 10% in Ireland

the levels of social unrest that is coming in Ireland is going to be frightening, people don’t get this

things are going to escalate very quickly

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863698#Comment_118863698

If you think that migrating from Russian oil and gas to other suppliers in the short term and ultimately to renewables will put millions into severe poverty, then I don't think you have any understanding of what severe poverty truly is.

tooka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863772#Comment_118863772

no I think you don’t

I fully expect inflation and extra taxes from that inflation to cost at least 2500 to 3000 per family per annum

I know a social worker, good friend and she handles a few families where both parents work on low wages topped up by hap and FIS, But she expects all these families, both parents, to give up their jobs by very soon

It is costing them money to work and when that happens we know the economy is in trouble

that is how the vicious poverty cycle in Ireland starts.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863798#Comment_118863798

I'll be down about 5000 this year in purchasing terms.

My business costs are up about 24% in the last year.

People are going to get an awful shock. People are already facing in to it.

joebloggs32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863798#Comment_118863798

With all theses extra cost of living payouts coming it really is pushing ever higher that number where work actually pays.

Finding ways to reduce to cost of living are a far better solution than just firing cash at those who rely on welfare/wage supports

tooka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863822#Comment_118863822

The problem is that most businesses after covid cannot afford wage increases

the employer and the employees are both being hit badly

the firm I work at their Overheads have gone up 35% and because of that we cannot afford promised wage increases for staff, which we wanted to give post covid as a thank you for working through it, staff were very upset as were the employers

negative interest charges have also affected us badly adding 33,000 pa to our expenses

we have commercial clients who are months away from collapsing

beggars_bush

Those gas fields off Ireland might suddenly look feasible again

goldenmick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863874#Comment_118863874

That Russian fleet "on manoeuvres" a few weeks back were not there for nothing. *nudge nudge* *wink wink*

tooka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863832#Comment_118863832

what needs to happen is interest rate increases by the ecb which will reduce inflation

plus the Irish government can reduce taxes , scrap carbon tax, USC, reduce vat rates and stop borrowing from the ECB and stop wasting billions on stupid worthless government Social programs

cool the economy but unfortunately we don’t have the political leaders to do this