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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Germany remains the weak link and you can be certain that it is already working on ways to circumvent the sanctions, same as last time Russia was sanctioned.


    As for the 100bn that was headline grabbing puff piece and the Ukraine will be waiting a long before useable military aid is delivered as promised from them.

    Post edited by Danzy on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,026 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I would reckon putin will not go for Kyiv now. If he could have taken it quickly and relatively undamaged like he likely thought and intended then yes, but that ship has sailed. Partically levelling a city nobody outside of Ukraine heard of a month ago in the south is one thing, a famous capital city another. There was that missile strike in the very centre of Kyiv in the first days of this invasion, but very little like that since. He is quite aware of optics. I reckon the same reasoning will be applied to Odessa. He has the Donbas region and the land corridor to Crimea pretty much sewn up as far as colours on a map anyway, which is what counts in the short term. He can call that as a win back home. He could then spin he never intended to level Kyiv as the "nazis" were in Donbas and the extreme south. That's he's a stong man, but not the monster the west are painting him.

    Negotiations follow. Ukraine and NATO membership off the map(that's already 99% a done deal). Ukraine loses the Donbas "independent states"(80% a given I'd reckon). Some minor optics changes like I dunno, the Azov battalion disbanded on paper(different unit badge minus the name and nazi symbols, new commanders. Job done. Same unit), some street names changed(that's been brought up apparrently) and putin withdraws.

    The sticking point IMHO will be the Crimean land corridor. Putin holds it now, but he can't hold it for long and would face years of insurrection and huge costs in resources. Crimea was/is different as it was already mostly Russian. He may haggle over it, but I suspect he'll drop it for other bargaining chips. or go the UN/Dual control route. Ukraine faces similar with Donbas. It was only ever half theirs and a PITA, so I suspect they'll drop there too.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    And yet other than a Russian lebensraum he's certainly mentioned and nationalism(a far less prickly matter than in Western Europe) putin has ticked pretty much none of the other boxes you've listed. The Dunne is right, "nazi" is thrown about with reckless abandon as a shorthand and ultimate insult for The Enemy. Hell, Russia and putin have done so and used it as the excuse to invade Ukraine. And both harbour and have supported pockets of actual nazis of their own.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,828 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    Bravery or idiocy to return after his poisoning ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,026 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    3m people versus the combined total of 140m of Germany and Italy. They are not doing nothing and gas is the easier problem to solve. Bear in mind too that a virtual elimination of 10% of the world's supply would add even greater pressure to prices. Russia are already struggling to find buyers for its oil.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I suspect he thought he had a lot more support from the Russian on the street than he did and returning would ignite that. Just because we may like/support him because he's an opponent of putin, it doesn't mean the average Russian does, or thinks he's the better man for the job than putin. He could be seen as the worst of two evils. Hard to know.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The Poles want to hit Putin while Russia is on the back foot, force an end to the conflict.


    Germany want to ensure that Germany is not affected, no matter the devastation that approach causes to the Ukraine and to wider European economics in the long run.


    They are being utterly cynical and keeping the hand open to Moscow. It's an exact replay of the post Crimea response from Berlin to Moscow, and it's undermining of sanctions.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    I think the same. But many posters here find such approach uncomfortable and contaminating the whole discussion. While I prefer to inflict and feel this kind of discomfort than much bigger discomfort later in a shape of a war, if people allow certain things to grow.

    I prefer to pay this small price and keep things in balance...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,848 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    What do you think Guantanamo Bay was?

    There's plenty them around the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Putin would be moderate and run an open society compared to most Communist leaders Russia had.


    He would be less oppressive than all bar Gorbachev.


    It doesn't make him good but that they were at an exceptional level.


    Communist Russia was Nazi Germany's older, more effectively controlling and much more murderous older brother.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,848 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    This conflict in the Ukraine has bugger all to do with either the Nazis or the Communists.

    They're just cheap words for people to invoke because they don't have a clue what they're talking about.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,848 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    That's not to say Putin is nice, it's just that he will have to become a lot more murderous and brutal to meet the level that was the norm in Communist society.

    LOL. Maybe you should educate yourself more on the subject? Why don't you start with Russian apartments bombings?

    He is a very brutal and murderous man. Only such open actions now are not acceptable in a modern world....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,141 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Trump is an utter idiot who would say mass. He parroted russian propaganda and took multiple steps to defend Russia.

    He only acts the hard man. Sad to think people still believe him.

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Except the Polish bravado risks broadening the conflict. It's a time for further tweaking of sanctions and waiting. I see no cynicism in any country taking time to figure out how to replace 40% of its energy supplies. They are working on a plan, just one that is far more long-term than their hyper impatient neighbours.



  • Posts: 15,802 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's difficult to fault the countries that are dependent on Russian gas and oil, for not wanting to immediately disconnect from that.

    Their economies will suffer but more importantly, especially in the case of Germany, as gas is primarily used for heating, it would not be possible to disconnect without an alternative as people would die during the cold winters.

    Having said all that, these countries are actively out scouring the market for alternative sources to allow them to disconnect asap.

    I've no doubt they'll modify their stance once they get those alternatives in place



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    Russians kill opponents usually in other countries. More difficult to blame them. He is much safer in prison or in gulag.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,345 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I kind of would like to see Danzy (and similars) mug in an alternative world where M. Martin gets up at the lectern and tells Irish public we are dialling down the gas flows and oil imports by approx 50 % as of next week to do our part for war effort against Putin/Russia in Ukraine...

    Will be hello to 3 day weeks, brownouts + no central heating. Will they stoically bear it? Past eruptions of anger over likes of fuel shortages and price rises suggests not. He + many pals would probably don their little yellow vesteens and be straight up to the Dáil (if they can buy fuel for their convoy) shaking fists at the gate in rage and calling for Micheál's scalp + the govt. to be brought down!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭jmreire


    My Russian friends parents ( not all, but some definitely) would have been born during the communist times, so that would explain their attitudes, but as has been mentioned here several times, the younger generation are not fooled so easy, and they are not impressed by what the state controlled media is telling them. I remember being in restaurant's and bars, when the news would come on, and people would watch it, and then dismiss it with a flick of their hands. Even in the communist times, people knew it was buls*t, or as the workers used to say " They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work...." The problem we have here in the west is the sheer amount of information freely available. Democracy means that everyone can have a viewpoint, for better or worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    how many American politicians were detained in Guantanamo. Your not Lukashenko by any chance he jumped at the same angle in a CNN interview recently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet


    Mariupol still holding out. It will just be ruins by the time the Russians have stopped shelling, but it's not theirs yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    The gas side is the difficult one and can't be switched off straight away. Oil however could effectively be turned off with immediate effect.

    Alternatives are available, it will cost more but it would have a far more dramatic effect on the Russian economy than the rest of the world.

    If Iran are allowed to sell to the west again then their might not be cost issues. This is why the yanks are pushing to resolve things with them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet


    Good idea, stop importing oil from the terrible Russian regime and start importing from the wonderful Iranian regime.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    No need for that language projecting yourself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,848 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Unfortunately they rushed head long in to changing over 40% of their electric power production without any concrete plan to replace it bar Merkel's reward after Crimea of approving Nord stream 2. I don't like coal or nuclear power but a replacement strategy outside of Uncle Vlad should have been considered.


    Germany withholding aid, starting to roll back on defense spending, fighting sanctions again.


    It's utterly transparent and cynical. They hope for a quick end and return to normality but that's rough on The Ukraine and all of us. They remain needing Russia goodwill and vulnerable to blackmail this winter.


    It's the harvest they have sown, now they have to live with the consequences, as do we all unfortunately. Hiding from it makes it worse in the long run and only encourages Putin again.



This discussion has been closed.
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