Russia - threadbanned users in OP

generic_throwaway · 08-03-2022 09:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748973#Comment_118748973

It could be the solution that Claire Daly was demanding on the radio the other day - the EU should sit down and make peace.

She just repeated that without any indication of how it might happen - like a magic trick.

deise08 · 08-03-2022 09:04AM

https://twitter.com/PopulistOnline/status/1501099884669435904?s=20&t=Ki27SR5xqFPe10_3PCA1Vw

starkid · 08-03-2022 09:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749056#Comment_118749056

Russia has second strike capabilities. and likely dead man switches. so in that scenario the three leaders have signed their own death warrants. the deterrence of MAD likely works to stop all attacks. obviously this is testing that theory to the extreme.

GM228 · 08-03-2022 09:19AM

There's a massive fall in the amount of planes in the sky over Russia at the moment now that Aeroflot has discontinued international flights from today.

is_that_so · 08-03-2022 09:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749198#Comment_118749198

In their heads maybe but they would never be able to hold it and would lose a lot of troops to an attritional insurgency. Then there's that sanctions problem and their economy will not tolerate them for very long.

is_that_so · 08-03-2022 09:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749210#Comment_118749210

It's really nothing so dramatic yet, that's a future projection by an organisation concerned about such things. We will adapt over time.

Richard Hillman · 08-03-2022 09:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749210#Comment_118749210

I would like to cross reference the countries worse affected with the ones that abstained in the UN. They can ask for aid from Russia.

is_that_so · 08-03-2022 09:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749205#Comment_118749205

All of which assumes the rest of the Russian leadership will allow them to get to a point where he does. So far he's just bluffed. If we ever got to that point, I actually don't think he's really crazy enough to do so, Russia as a military power and as a country would be wiped out. What these last two weeks have suggested, is that nukes aside, they probably couldn't defend it against a real military.

Igotadose · 08-03-2022 09:36AM

An excellent read from the 1980s on what would happen in the event of a nuclear war. I remember reading it when it was serialized in The New Yorker magazine. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fate_of_the_Earth

FishOnABike · 08-03-2022 09:45AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748568#Comment_118748568

When it comes to him being prosecuted in court for criminal damage, someone should tell the jury about jury nullification https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_nullification

08-03-2022 09:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749191#Comment_118749191

Im sure many here have seen those wildlife videos where there are two mega beasts, for example. an anaconda and a crocodile going head to head with each other.

You think one beast might win, especially where it is giving other is a good beating , but suddenly it’s the other that wins out- especially where an anaconda is in the mix

With talk of the anaconda plan in some news reports, what do others think? Is a strangle hold on water food and supplies coupled with continued bombardment of Ukrainian troops the final squeeze? Certainly that tweet above looks frightening

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-war-putin-pursuing-anaconda-plan-with-force-what-are-his-options-for-ending-the-conflict-12560079

08-03-2022 09:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749284#Comment_118749284

Not so dramatic, eh? We can adapt? That's too casual and flippant an approach to the propsect of extra tens of millions facing starvation. Are Ukranians the only humans on the face of the planet? I don't think so.

Do you think Ukranian farms are operating as normal right now and it'll all be grand? It might be grand in Ireland, but in other places these issues are a matter of life and death.

E.G. to take just one country... before any of this started, Yemen was facing food shortages and famine.

Article below from Sept 2021:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/sep/23/16-million-in-yemen-marching-towards-starvation-as-food-rations-run-low-un

At least 5 million people in Yemen are on the brink of famine and a further 16 million are “marching toward starvation”, as the country’s humanitarian crisis spirals out of control.

Today Yemen's situation is even worse. I will limit my posts on this topic, but it is by no means a trivial non-European distraction from the main event.

Nermal · 08-03-2022 09:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749018#Comment_118749018

I think there quite a few possible 'intermediate' nuclear steps.

Nuclear 'demonstration' over the ocean, some remote area or space.

In the sky above Ukraine, or eventually on the ground in Ukraine.

Frightening prospect.

erlichbachman · 08-03-2022 10:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749191#Comment_118749191

Really hope the guy doesnt get killed, but if he does he'll be the biggest martyr the world has seen in modern times, may even be the catalyst to NATO upping the ante.

is_that_so · 08-03-2022 10:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749353#Comment_118749353

Yemen has had huge problems for a very long time, but that doesn't mean the rest of the world will follow them.

This is a list of fertiliser producers and yes Russia are big but just 13% of fertilisers. Prices have risen and will rise more but we can adapt to that shortfall.

https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/nitrogen-fertilizer-production

Wheat production too can be increased and while it may not fully offset the loss of Russia, it will all help.

Wibbs · 08-03-2022 10:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749106#Comment_118749106

As a rank amateur looking in it really does seem like the Russians were confident they could prosecute a large scale invasion force when it's been pretty clear they can't* When they were the Soviet Union they were able to in their Afghan campaign(and IIRC their focus used to be as a very centralised command directing assets), but it seems they've very much dropped the ball on that score, whereas the Americans never really did and learned and improved through their Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns. Lack of cash, or as likely cash going elsewhere(oligarchs half billion quid yachts would buy a lot of training) didn't help.

Their lack of understanding of local feeling seems to have really failed them. Like you say they didn't go in hell for leather. It looks like they expected a large part of the Unkrainian population to greet them, or at least not fight back. That and they'd have to be mindful of feelings at home considering the deep connections between the two nations and people. They did try to lessen that with propaganda at home since 2014. Where once the official line was Ukrainians are our brothers(far more than any other Russian vassal, save for Belarus), that was tweaked in their official line to the place is full of nazis hurting our Russian Unkrainain brothers. If putin had 'just' annexed the Donbas I suspect he'd have likely got away with it far more, both militarily and polictially at home and abroad. I still can't comprehend his thinking or his generals thinking of going for the whole country.

Hah. I learned early in my military career that it didn't matter if I was wearing subdued rank, but that leaders spoke with their hands and that that was the giveaway.

Yeah, apparently it's usually very obvious to observers/snipers who is in command. Generally an older guy with younger around him looking at him. The Finns in WW2 had the tactic of 'shoot the grey hairs'.

*It's not easy to do. The Germans with their infamous bliztkreig learned on the job and were slapdash and nearly fell on their arses. They won out because their opponents were even more slapdash and did fall on their arses and the Germans nailed rapid transport down early on. When the Germans attacked Greece, British observers and spies reported the rapid movements of German men and materiel along the route and London didn't, couldn't believe them at first. In a German pilot's memoir I have he himself could scarcely believe the speed of moving his squadron from France to Greece, with refueling waypoints set up and when they landed outside Athens the airfield was already up and running, all over the space of a few days.

Wes M. · 08-03-2022 10:08AM

With all the talk of the Kremlin running out of cash to fund the war effort, if I was an oligarch, I'd be feeling increasingly nervous that Putin might call me in for a meeting at that mile-long table, and ask me to do my duty to the motherland ("You can either pay or fight!"). Which I'm sure guys who own $30million yachts would have little interest in doing....

technocrat · 08-03-2022 10:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748727#Comment_118748727

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748950#Comment_118748950

Stop thinking this is like a Hollywood movie!

You are the one pontificating and believe you are 100% right in what will happen.

Your so called research is not backed up by any facts its just a lazy opinion.

My argument is what's the most likely outcome I didn't come across all gung ho like you saying this will DEFINITELY happen and we're all gonna die argghh!

You better hurry and start building that bunker.

Wibbs · 08-03-2022 10:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749186#Comment_118749186

That's their opening bid. It can safely be discounted as all hagglers know. It won't be their last. If I were to guess the final 'price' will be Crimea and Donbas in Russian hands, Ukraine says no to NATO in the medium term anyway, EU membership still in play. While the offers are on the table for politcal optics and support both the EU and NATO for all sorts of reasons wouldn't be in any actual rush to bring Ukraine in and Russia knows it. It's a paper invitation to a party that's years away. Rightfully too. Before this war Ukraine was one of the most corrupt nations out there with a civil war in the east and was in EU terms an economic basketcase. I know it sounds awful, but I have a feeling this horrible war will be the making of Ukraine in years to come. They've built up huge goodwill worldwide and the sniff of continuing as before with corruption and support of dodgy neo nazis in their ranks could snuff that out pretty quickly. They have to step up and become the country they could and deserve to be for Ukrainians. It could even help Russia too. Russia with her huge resources and people could and should be a prosperous 'European' democracy, but she isn't and I fear that'll be a longer road for them to walk. Putin will have to be a memory and they need to get out from under their self imposed yoke of supporting 'strongmen'. Not easy.

Denalihighway · 08-03-2022 10:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118188553#Comment_118188553

You're confusing respect with fear. If you get thrown in jail for criticising someone, then most people will keep their criticism to themselves. Very often, people confuse respect with fear.

HerrKuehn · 08-03-2022 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749353#Comment_118749353

All Ukraine can do is focus on their own situation. They could hardly be expected to give in to the Russians because there might be food shortages or price hikes elsewhere. Egypt, which will be impacted by this, would not let themselves be overrun by the Israelis to prevent the price of rice going up in Thailand.

Mecanudo · 08-03-2022 10:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749174#Comment_118749174

The problem is that such an intervention would likely result in a chain of events you don't seem to have a clear understanding of

OK get the first thing there is to step off the podium with the pontificating. It's statements like that I stopped you for as frankly that's little more than big chief know all babble

You can check but I made no statement regarding any "intervention" or any "chain of events" so in reality there you don't have any grasp of my "understanding"

This is a discussion and any personal claims of "nuanced understanding" really don't amount to a hill of beans. We can all claim to have more "nuanced understanding" and use it to beat our virtual opponents over the head with. Unfortunately it doesn't work.

Btw you didn't answer my previous question.

nullzero · 08-03-2022 10:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749447#Comment_118749447

I'm basing my argument on projections made by people who actually understand the dangers of nuclear war.

Here for instance is a link to a Princeton University study on the subject which produced a simulation of a nuclear war from a couple of years ago ; https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo

I've attached a video of said simulation for you also.

I'm not basing my argument on lazy opinion but rather fact, you have provided no evidence to support your position on the subject.

08-03-2022 10:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749357#Comment_118749357

Or there maybe no intermediate steps after a demonstration.

Some people are saying Russia would be totally wiped out if a Nuclear war. Nah Nah Na Nah Nah... But, sucks to be us too, because nobody survives either the US or Russian being attacked by nuclear weapons, neither would 'go quietly into the night'.

I don't think there will be a nuclear war, because NATO isn't going to risk Ukraine for the world. Why would they? It's not even shameful, it's common sense.