March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

Already a MIN of -4.7 at Mountdillon on 1st (Dublin -4.4, Mullingar -4.2).

After two weeks ...

IMT now 5.5 F, with the second week average 6.7, 0.1 below normal.

MAX still not tracked -- perhaps Friday or Saturday will produce something there, MIN -5.7 below most forecasts.

PRC now 125 per cent of normal, after the dry start, a much wetter second week (227% of normal).

SUN continues well above average, at around 170% with the second week at 122% of normal.

The 17th looms, and a near average temperature with a somewhat showery outlook is likely.

The max was a rather surprising 14.2 C and rainfall just 0.1 mm. A reminder of the scoring, each element is scored out of six points to give a potential for "superbonus" additions. Gaoth Laidir took full advantage to reach 12 points and Artane2002 and sunflower3 have 10, and Adam240610, john mac are tied fourth with 9 points. Scoring has been done by clustering of similar values to average 3-5 in each group. There were always the same number of people in scoring levels for the two elements more by luck than design, and scoring levels are separated in the table by blank space.

The scoring is arranged in groups and may be slightly out of sequence for rainfall where it was possible to keep the same forecaster in one row within a scoring interval. (* with the rainfall forecast for appledrop indicates that as the reason for the apparent shift in the order within a scoring interval) ...

... The total score for each forecaster is after the second scoring entry for rainfall. Scoring details for Con Sensus and NormaL are listed at bottom of the forecaster scoring information.

For temperatures, scoring groups: __ and for rainfall, as follows:

6 pts _ Gaoth Laidir _14.8 _______6_Gaoth Laidir __ 0.0 mm ___ total 12

6 pts _ John mac ___14.0 _______6_Sunflower ____ 0.0 mm ___ total 10

6 pts _ Artane2002 _13.3 _______6_ Mr Stonewall __0.0 mm ___ total 7

5 pts _ sryanbruen _ 12.9 _______5_Adam240610 _ 0.3 mm ___ total 9

5 pts _ Tae laidir ___ 12.9 _______5_Gonzo _______0.3 mm ___ total 8

5 pts _ Dacogawa __ 12.7 _______5_Danno _______0.4 mm ___ total 6

4 pts _ adam240610_12.5 _______4_DOCARCH ___ 0.8 mm ___ total 7

4 pts _ Dasa29 ____ 12.5 _______ 4 Artane2002 __0.8 mm ___ total 10

4 pts _ Sunflower __ 12.1 _______ 4 Bsal ________0.9 mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ waterways __11.7 ________3_John mac ____1.2 mm ___ total 9

3 pts _ Appledrop __ 11.5 ________3_Appledrop ___ 1.9*mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ Gonzo _____ 11.4 ________3_M.T. Cranium _1.3 mm ___ total 5

3 pts _ Joe Public __ 11.3 ________3_tae laidir ____ 1.5 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ DOCARCH __ 11.1 ________3_sryanbruen __ 1.9 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ Kindred Spirit 11.0 _______ 3_Kindred Spirit _2.0 mm ___total 6

3 pts _ JPmarn ____ 10.9 ________3_dasa29 ______2.0 mm ___total 7

2 pts _ Bsal _______ 10.0 ________2_MrSkinner ___ 3.3 mm ___ total 3

2 pts _ M.T. Cranium _ 9.7 ________2_Joe Public ___ 4.0 mm ___ total 5

2 pts _ Pauldry ______9.4 ________2_JPmarn _____ 4.5 mm ___ total 5

1 pt __ MrSkinner ___ 9.0 ________1_Dacogawa ____ 5.1 mm ___ total 6

1 pt __ MrStonewall __8.2 ________1_Pauldry ______ 5.3 mm ___ total 3

1 pt __ Danno ______ 7.5 ________1_waterways ____6.3 mm ___ total 4

___ NormaL ______12.2 _(4 pts) ___ NormaL _____ 2.1 mm (3 pts) _ 7 pts

___ Con Sensus ___11.6 _(3 pts) ___ Con Sensus __ 1.4 mm (3 pts) _ 6 pts

Here for the fun of it is where your forecast verified in Ireland ...

The 5 pt temp range did well in higher midlands locations, near border and south coast

The 4 pt temp range verified in west Connacht.

The 3 pt temp range verified in north Ulster.

Travel to Scotland for some readings similar to 2 and 1 pt ranges.

For rainfall, you would only have to hop a bus to get into the 5 pt range in other parts of the region, and 4 pts verified as close as the east midlands with 3 pts good at many central to western inland locations, 2 pts made the right call for locations such as Mace Head, Valentia. The 1 pt range may have verified between some western stations in heavier showers. (4.7 mm at Claremorris and 4.6 mm at Valentia the highest amounts).

From what I saw on the radar loop, 0.5-1.0 mm amounts likely fell within a few miles to the north of Dub (A). Given the hourly temps, the group with six points scored with an inter-hourly spike during the afternoon sunshine.

15.8 C on Friday 18th at Phoenix Park, will see if Saturday beats that or not. Looks potentially warmer next week anyway.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.4, third week average was 8.3 C which is 0.8 above normal. This may continue to climb for several days then stall or drop a bit, perhaps 7.2 is about the most likely outcome.

MAX 17.0 and MIN -5.7 ... max could increase (18.5-19.5 a possible outcome). MIN almost certainly set.

PRC now at 92% with the third week rather dry, average 27% of normal. ... If no further rain fell this month the PRC would end up near 65% of normal. We may see enough near the end of the month to reach perhaps 80%.

SUN now at 172% with the third week average 174% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this may go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is at least 150%.

BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).