March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

appledrop · 07-03-2022 2:58pm

We have a new Min -5.7 at Mt. Dillon on 6th.

Fair play to those of you who went for min that low, I would never have guessed that especially after the mild winter we had.

pauldry · 07-03-2022 10:29pm

Yes March could be the coldest month of the "Winter" at this rate.

M.T. Cranium · 08-03-2022 8:47pm

After the first week ...

IMT on 4.4 C which was 2.0 below normal.

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -5.7

PRC only 22% of normal.

SUN 217.7% of normal.

Current guidance for 17th suggests it would be a mild, dry day at the end of a string of cool, wet days so with the usual margin of error at that time scale, probably every forecast about equally likely to work out.

M.T. Cranium · 15-03-2022 5:50pm

After two weeks ...

IMT now 5.5 F, with the second week average 6.7, 0.1 below normal.

MAX still not tracked -- perhaps Friday or Saturday will produce something there, MIN -5.7 below most forecasts.

PRC now 125 per cent of normal, after the dry start, a much wetter second week (227% of normal).

SUN continues well above average, at around 170% with the second week at 122% of normal.

The 17th looms, and a near average temperature with a somewhat showery outlook is likely.

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2022 3:42am

Getting ready to score the bonus, here are the forecasts rearranged from the forecast table into the order of temperatures predicted for the 17th at Dub (A). The number in brackets after the rainfall forecast is the ranking on that element (1 = highest forecast etc).

FORECASTER ____________ Max __ Prc

Gaoth Laidir _____________14.8 and 0.0 mm (t20)

John mac _______________14.0 and 1.2 mm (13)

Artane2002 _____________ 13.3 and 0.8 mm (t15)

sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 and 1.9 mm (t9)

Tae laidir _______________ 12.9 and 1.5 mm (11)

Dacogawa ______________ 12.7 and 5.1 mm (3)

adam240610 ____________12.5 and 0.3 mm (t18)

Dasa29 ________________ 12.5 and 2.0 mm (t7)

___ NormaL _____________12.2 and 2.1 mm (( 7 ))

Sunflower3 ____________12.1 and 0.0 mm (t20)

waterways ______________11.7 and 6.3 mm (1)

___ Consensus __________ 11.6 and 1.4 mm (( 12 ))

Appledrop ______________ 11.5 and 1.9 mm (t9)

Gonzo _________________ 11.4 and 0.3 mm (t18)

Joe Public ______________ 11.3 and 4.0 mm (5)

DOCARCH ______________ 11.1 and 0.8 mm (t15)

Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.0 and 2.0 mm (t7)

Jpmarn ________________ 10.9 and 4.5 mm (4)

Bsal _________________10.0 and 0.9 mm (14)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 9.7 and 1.3 mm (12)

Pauldry _______________ 9.4 and 5.3 mm (2)

MrSkinner _______________ 9.0 and 3.3 mm (6)

Mr Stonewall _____________8.2 and 0.0 mm (t20)

Danno __________________7.5 and 0.4 mm (17)

(Con Sensus prc changed from 1.7 to 1.4 mm, error in original calculation)

(ranks for Con and NormaL do not affect rankings of forecasters)

This work should speed up scoring once the actual values are available.

=========== 0 ===========

appledrop · 17-03-2022 3:43pm

Currently 13 degrees at Dublin airport and we have just had a light rain shower.

I'd say Artane could be on the money for bonus question!

appledrop · 18-03-2022 8:53am

The data is in drumroll please....

It actually reached 14.2 at D.A yesterday & only 0.1mm of rain.

I'd say with two combined that's top points to Gaoth Laidir with John Mac close behind.

Of course M.T is the expert so will decide the actual points!

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2022 9:20am

The max was a rather surprising 14.2 C and rainfall just 0.1 mm. A reminder of the scoring, each element is scored out of six points to give a potential for "superbonus" additions. Gaoth Laidir took full advantage to reach 12 points and Artane2002 and sunflower3 have 10, and Adam240610, john mac are tied fourth with 9 points. Scoring has been done by clustering of similar values to average 3-5 in each group. There were always the same number of people in scoring levels for the two elements more by luck than design, and scoring levels are separated in the table by blank space.

The scoring is arranged in groups and may be slightly out of sequence for rainfall where it was possible to keep the same forecaster in one row within a scoring interval. (* with the rainfall forecast for appledrop indicates that as the reason for the apparent shift in the order within a scoring interval) ...

... The total score for each forecaster is after the second scoring entry for rainfall. Scoring details for Con Sensus and NormaL are listed at bottom of the forecaster scoring information.

For temperatures, scoring groups: __ and for rainfall, as follows:

6 pts _ Gaoth Laidir _14.8 _______6_Gaoth Laidir __ 0.0 mm ___ total 12

6 pts _ John mac ___14.0 _______6_Sunflower ____ 0.0 mm ___ total 10

6 pts _ Artane2002 _13.3 _______6_ Mr Stonewall __0.0 mm ___ total 7

5 pts _ sryanbruen _ 12.9 _______5_Adam240610 _ 0.3 mm ___ total 9

5 pts _ Tae laidir ___ 12.9 _______5_Gonzo _______0.3 mm ___ total 8

5 pts _ Dacogawa __ 12.7 _______5_Danno _______0.4 mm ___ total 6

4 pts _ adam240610_12.5 _______4_DOCARCH ___ 0.8 mm ___ total 7

4 pts _ Dasa29 ____ 12.5 _______ 4 Artane2002 __0.8 mm ___ total 10

4 pts _ Sunflower __ 12.1 _______ 4 Bsal ________0.9 mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ waterways __11.7 ________3_John mac ____1.2 mm ___ total 9

3 pts _ Appledrop __ 11.5 ________3_Appledrop ___ 1.9*mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ Gonzo _____ 11.4 ________3_M.T. Cranium _1.3 mm ___ total 5

3 pts _ Joe Public __ 11.3 ________3_tae laidir ____ 1.5 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ DOCARCH __ 11.1 ________3_sryanbruen __ 1.9 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ Kindred Spirit 11.0 _______ 3_Kindred Spirit _2.0 mm ___total 6

3 pts _ JPmarn ____ 10.9 ________3_dasa29 ______2.0 mm ___total 7

2 pts _ Bsal _______ 10.0 ________2_MrSkinner ___ 3.3 mm ___ total 3

2 pts _ M.T. Cranium _ 9.7 ________2_Joe Public ___ 4.0 mm ___ total 5

2 pts _ Pauldry ______9.4 ________2_JPmarn _____ 4.5 mm ___ total 5

1 pt __ MrSkinner ___ 9.0 ________1_Dacogawa ____ 5.1 mm ___ total 6

1 pt __ MrStonewall __8.2 ________1_Pauldry ______ 5.3 mm ___ total 3

1 pt __ Danno ______ 7.5 ________1_waterways ____6.3 mm ___ total 4

___ NormaL ______12.2 _(4 pts) ___ NormaL _____ 2.1 mm (3 pts) _ 7 pts

___ Con Sensus ___11.6 _(3 pts) ___ Con Sensus __ 1.4 mm (3 pts) _ 6 pts

Here for the fun of it is where your forecast verified in Ireland ...

The 5 pt temp range did well in higher midlands locations, near border and south coast

The 4 pt temp range verified in west Connacht.

The 3 pt temp range verified in north Ulster.

Travel to Scotland for some readings similar to 2 and 1 pt ranges.

For rainfall, you would only have to hop a bus to get into the 5 pt range in other parts of the region, and 4 pts verified as close as the east midlands with 3 pts good at many central to western inland locations, 2 pts made the right call for locations such as Mace Head, Valentia. The 1 pt range may have verified between some western stations in heavier showers. (4.7 mm at Claremorris and 4.6 mm at Valentia the highest amounts).

From what I saw on the radar loop, 0.5-1.0 mm amounts likely fell within a few miles to the north of Dub (A). Given the hourly temps, the group with six points scored with an inter-hourly spike during the afternoon sunshine.

appledrop · 18-03-2022 11:20am

Ah I knew the expert would clarify for us!

Don't know how you keep track of all the different scoring M.T. Well done to Gaoth Laidir.

While I didn't score great on bonus, I'm delighted it was even warmer and drier than we initially thought.

It was a lovely St. Patrick's Day in Dublin and it was great to see everyone out enjoying themselves at the parades.

Yep you could clearly see from RTE coverage of St. Patrick's Day that weather varied around the country, with some unlucky to have parade ruined with rain!

Another beautiful day here in Dublin for long weekend. Enjoy everyone😀

M.T. Cranium · 20-03-2022 3:03am

15.8 C on Friday 18th at Phoenix Park, will see if Saturday beats that or not. Looks potentially warmer next week anyway.

pauldry · 20-03-2022 3:49am

Yep at least 17c by next Tuesday

17c 70 per cent chance

18c 20 percent

19c 5 percent

20c 1 percent

DOCARCH · 20-03-2022 10:38am

Max of 16.5c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

DOCARCH · 22-03-2022 11:41am

Max of 17.0c yesterday at Valentia.

M.T. Cranium · 22-03-2022 1:41pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.4, third week average was 8.3 C which is 0.8 above normal. This may continue to climb for several days then stall or drop a bit, perhaps 7.2 is about the most likely outcome.

MAX 17.0 and MIN -5.7 ... max could increase (18.5-19.5 a possible outcome). MIN almost certainly set.

PRC now at 92% with the third week rather dry, average 27% of normal. ... If no further rain fell this month the PRC would end up near 65% of normal. We may see enough near the end of the month to reach perhaps 80%.

SUN now at 172% with the third week average 174% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this may go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is at least 150%.

BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).

DOCARCH · 23-03-2022 10:01am

Max of 17.8c yesterday at Finner.

Tae laidir · 24-03-2022 8:49am

Phoenix Park reported 18.6 yesterday.

Tae laidir · 26-03-2022 9:15am

Mt. Dillon reported 18.8 yesterday.

pauldry · 26-03-2022 10:38am

Maybe beaten today again as its 14c at 9 o clock here

appledrop · 27-03-2022 6:20pm

A good few stations reporting 19 degrees today so that 18.8 max looks like it will be beaten.

DOCARCH · 28-03-2022 9:54am

Max of 18.9c at Newport yesterday.

pauldry · 28-03-2022 11:22am

Yes that's it by the looks of things. May sneak an 18c in West today but not that high.

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2022 10:45pm

After four weeks ...

IMT on 7.4, third week average was 10.4 C which is 2.9 above normal. This will probably fall off a bit now and still think 7.2 is the most likely outcome.

MAX 18.9 and MIN -5.7.

PRC now at 69% with the fourth week almost bone dry, average 1% of normal. ... Only small amounts are expected, result will be in the range of 65 to 70 per cent.

SUN now at 184% with the fourth week average 227.5% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this will go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is 180%.

BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).

Will post some preliminary scoring as it appears almost everything is set now. April thread should appear by morning first light.

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2022 11:29pm

Preliminary Scoring for March 2022

As most of the elements are going to require minimum progression, or have reached their apparent verification (MAX, MIN, Bonus), with the IMT fairly close to 7.2 on estimate, this is how scoring will most likely appear at end of month. ... Leaving the scoring in forecast order for now to make the IMT corrections faster (if needed).

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Dub (A) 17th

___ Scoring values _______ 7.2_18.9_-5.7_068_180 __ 14.2, 0.0mm __ TOTAL SCORE

sryanbruen _____________ 21 _ 10 _ 03*_ 05*_ 02*__ 08 ______ 49

MrSkinner ______________ 21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 14*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 67

Pauldry ________________ 22 _ 14 _ 10*_ 02*_ 04*__ 05 ______ 57

Tae laidir _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 01*_ 03*_ 03*__ 08 ______ 52

Artane2002 _____________ 23 _ 04 _ 12*_ 04*_ 02*__ 10 ______ 55

Gonzo __________________24 _ 17 _ 03*_ 10*_ 05*__ 08 ______ 67

Kindred Spirit ____________24 _ 10 _ 01*_ 04*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 48

John mac _______________ 25 _ 15 _ 10*_ 06*_ 04*__ 09 ______ 69

Appledrop ____ (-1) ______ 25 _ 09 _ 06*_ 07*_ 03*__ 06 __56-1=55

Sunflower3______________ 24 _ 19 _ 02*_ 05*_ 01*__ 10 ______ 61

Dacogawa _______________24 _ 19 _ 05*_ 01*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 58

___ Consensus ___________24 _ 10 _ 05*_ 07*_ 04*__ 06 ______ 56

Bsal____________________24 _ 11 _ 05*_ 15*_ 08*__ 06 ______ 69

DOCARCH _______________23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 47

Dasa29 _________________23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 50

waterways ______________ 22 _ 04 _ 02*_ 08*_ 07*__ 04 ______ 47

Gaoth Laidir _____________ 22 _ 15 _ 03*_ 11*_ 07*__ 12 ______ 70

adam240610 ____________ 22 _ 00 _ 10*_ 04*_ 09*__ 09 ______ 54

___ NormaL _____________ 21 _ 06 _ 08*_ 08*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 54

Danno __________________20 _ 00 _ 17*_ 12*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 64

Jpmarn _________________ 18 _ 04 _ 12*_ 07*_ 09*__ 05 ______ 55

Mr Stonewall _____________17 _ 00 _ 13*_ 13*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 57

Joe Public _______________ 16 _ 05 _ 20*_ 05*_ 02*__ 05 ______ 53

M.T. Cranium _____________16 _ 00 _ 05*_ 07*_ 06*__ 05 ______ 39

=========================================

MIN scored from reduced minimum progression, as Joe Public had raw score of 19/20.

This means your boost is cut in half. PRC goes on full minimum progression although it could

also become subject to reduced (highest raw score 12/15) but if so not likely to change much.

SUN is definitely on full boost as max forecast 120%.

(actual values)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (A) 17th

sryanbruen _____________ 7.6 _ 17.9 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.9 and 1.9 mm

MrSkinner ______________ 7.6 _ 17.8 _ -4.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.0 and 3.3 mm

Pauldry_________________7.5 _ 19.5 _ -4.2 _ 125 _ 102 ____ 9.4 and 5.3 mm

Tae laidir _______________ 7.4 _ 18.3 _ -2.4 _ 118 _ 097 ___ 12.9 and 1.5 mm

Artane2002 _____________ 7.4 _ 17.3 _ -4.3 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 13.3 and 0.8 mm

Gonzo _________________ 7.3 _ 18.6 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 11.4 and 0.3 mm

Kindred Spirit ____________7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 11.0 and 2.0 mm

John mac _______________ 7.2 _ 19.4 _ -4.2 _ 106 _ 099 ___ 14.0 and 1.2 mm

Appledrop ____ (-1) ______ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 11.5 and 1.9 mm

Sunflower3______________ 7.1 _ 19.0 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 12.1 and 0.0 mm

Dacogawa _______________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.5 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 12.7 and 5.1 mm

___ Consensus ___________7.1 _ 17.9 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 11.6 and 1.7 mm

Bsal____________________7.1 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 077 _ 115 ___ 10.0 and 0.9 mm

DOCARCH _______________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.7 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 11.1 and 0.8 mm

Dasa29 _________________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 12.5 and 2.0 mm

waterways ______________ 6.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 11.7 and 6.3 mm

Gaoth Laidir _____________ 6.9 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.8 and 0.0 mm

adam240610 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 12.5 and 0.3 mm

___ NormaL _____________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.2 and 2.1 mm

Danno __________________6.7 _ 16.4 _ -6.2 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 7.5 and 0.4 mm

Jpmarn _________________ 6.5 _ 17.3 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 10.9 and 4.5 mm

Mr Stonewall _____________6.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.5 _ 083 _ 110 ____ 8.2 and 0.0 mm

Joe Public _______________ 6.3 _ 18.4 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 11.3 and 4.0 mm

M.T. Cranium _____________6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 108 ____ 9.7 and 1.3 mm

=========================================

Scoring to be adjusted on 1st of April and finalized on 4th or 5th (when MS available)

... as IMT is the only element needing much verification however, the 1st of April adjustment is probably going to be final.

sryanbruen · 29-03-2022 11:46pm

Glad to have done poorly this March. Original thought going into the month was for a mild, changeable one with a lot of southwesterly winds because of a very +AO/+NAO pattern that seasonals were going for so quite a cloudy month. Fortunately, we had a lot more easterlies with positive heights over Scandinavia instead but not far enough north to bring in very cold easterly winds.

A much more pleasant month than I could have imagined.

appledrop · 31-03-2022 10:30pm

I agree Sryanbruen, it really was a beautiful March + I'm also delighted I got the forecast so wrong!

So many stunning days and I hope everyone got to enjoy the lovely weather expecially over the St. Patrick's long weekend.

It was one to remember.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2022 12:48pm

The IMT is confirmed at 7.2, so that leaves the scoring as already shown awaiting confirmation of MAX and MIN from the MS, and assuming that PRC and SUN will be in the range where the minimum progression used is valid.

Will leave the annual update until Monday 4th.

By the way MIN did not change as a result but lows of -4.0 at a couple of locations for the 31st.

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2022 11:47pm

If the scoring holds up, this would be the annual update ... will either confirm or if March scores change, adjust this on 4th.

New concept, Con Sensus and NormaL have ranks that are decimalized relative to the actual forecasters. Not an actual example, but 10.5 would mean a score midway between 10th and 11th place. 10.1 would be just behind 10th and 10.9 would be just ahead of 11th. Etc.

Annual Scoring Summary (preliminary)

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ TOTAL

_01 _ (01) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 ___ 212

01.8_(01.8)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 ___ 206

_02 _ (08) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 ___ 204

_t03_ (02) __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 ___ 199

_t03_ (05) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 ___ 199

_t05_ (04) __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 _ 55 ___ 198

_t05_(t06) __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 _ 61 ___ 198

_07 _(t10) __Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 ___ 197

_t08_ (03) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 194

_t08_(t06) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 ___ 194

_10 _ (12) __MrSkinner ___________63 _ 63 _ 67 ___ 193

_11 _ (09) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 ___ 184

_12 _(t10) __DOCARCH ___________78 _ 50 _ 47 ___ 175

_t13_ (13) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 ___ 172

_t13_ (14) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 172

14.1_ (14.4)_____ NormaL _______ 60 _ 57 _ 54 ___ 171

_15 _ (17) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 ___ 164

_16 _ (18) __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 _ 53 ___ 160

_17 _ (20) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 ___ 159

_18 _(t15) __waterways __________ 65 _ 45 _ 47 ___ 157

_19 _(t15) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 ___ 149

_20 _ (21) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 ___ 134

_21 _ (24) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 ___ 113

_22 _ (19) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- ___ 106

_23 _ (---) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 ____ 70

_24 _ (22) __Bazlers _____________56 _ --- _ --- ____ 56

_25 _ (23) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- ____ 52

==================================================

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2022 11:33am

Confirmed scoring for March 2022

The Monthly Summary has confirmed (or adjusted) the values used for scoring. This table is now placed in the usual order of scoring. See the preliminary table above for the notes on minimum progression. The table above this one is therefore also confirmed for annual scoring. (both PRC and SUN were a little further from our forecast range than I had estimated so that didn't change anything in terms of a need to apply minimum progression).

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Dub (A) 17th

___ Scoring values _______ 7.2_18.9_-5.7_062_192 __ 14.2, 0.0 __ TOTAL SCORE

Gaoth Laidir _____________22 _ 15 _ 03*_ 11*_ 07*__ 12 ______ 70

John mac _______________25 _ 15 _ 10*_ 06*_ 04*__ 09 ______ 69

Bsal____________________24 _ 11 _ 05*_ 15*_ 08*__ 06 ______ 69

MrSkinner ______________ 21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 14*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 67

Gonzo _________________ 24 _ 17 _ 03*_ 10*_ 05*__ 08 ______ 67

Danno _________________ 20 _ 00 _ 17*_ 12*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 64

Sunflower3______________24 _ 19 _ 02*_ 05*_ 01*__ 10 ______ 61

Dacogawa ______________24 _ 19 _ 05*_ 01*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 58

Pauldry ________________ 22 _ 14 _ 10*_ 02*_ 04*__ 05 ______ 57

Mr Stonewall ____________ 17 _ 00 _ 13*_ 13*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 57

___ Consensus __________ 24 _ 10 _ 05*_ 07*_ 04*__ 06 ______ 56

Artane2002 _____________23 _ 04 _ 12*_ 04*_ 02*__ 10 ______ 55

Jpmarn ________________ 18 _ 04 _ 12*_ 07*_ 09*__ 05 ______ 55

Appledrop ____ (-1) ______25 _ 09 _ 06*_ 07*_ 03*__ 06 __56-1=55

adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 00 _ 10*_ 04*_ 09*__ 09 ______ 54

___ NormaL _____________21 _ 06 _ 08*_ 08*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 54

Joe Public _______________16 _ 05 _ 20*_ 05*_ 02*__ 05 ______ 53

Tae laidir _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 01*_ 03*_ 03*__ 08 ______ 52

Dasa29 ________________ 23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 50

sryanbruen _____________ 21 _ 10 _ 03*_ 05*_ 02*__ 08 ______ 49

Kindred Spirit ___________ 24 _ 10 _ 01*_ 04*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 48

DOCARCH ______________ 23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 47

waterways ______________22 _ 04 _ 02*_ 08*_ 07*__ 04 ______ 47

M.T. Cranium ____________16 _ 00 _ 05*_ 07*_ 06*__ 05 ______ 39

=========================================

Not a particularly high scoring month but well done to those who managed to get some decent scores anyway. (the annual scoring was already done and needs no further work, see post above this one).

M.T. Cranium · 05-04-2022 5:43am

Category scoring for 2022 (Jan to Mar)

This was tae laidir's great idea last year to keep track of category scoring. With three months in the contest, here's the first instalment. The high scores are highlighted in the table. The order in this table is the same as the annual scoring table. This also helps me to discover any errors in that table (none found so far).

In this table, "tot" is the raw score of category scoring totals, and adjusted shows the contest score (after late penalties).

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_ Tot __ Adj

__ Max possible _________ 75 _ 60 _ 60 _ 45 _ 30 __ 30+ ____300 _ 300

Pauldry ________________ 69 _ 50 _ 37 _ 16 _ 19 __ 22 _____213 _ 212

___ Consensus __________ 67 _ 45 _ 31 _ 24 _ 18 __ 21 _____206 _ 206

John mac _______________70 _ 44 _ 30 _ 24 _ 17 __ 19 _____204 _ 204

Tae laidir _______________ 65 _ 46 _ 31 _ 19 _ 17 __ 21 _____199 _ 199

Dacogawa ______________ 70 _ 53 _ 24 _ 17 _ 14 __ 21 _____199 _ 199

Appledrop ______________ 74 _ 47 _ 23 _ 23 _ 18 __ 14 _____199 _ 198

Sunflower3 ____________67 _ 50 _ 29 _ 20 _ 12 __ 20 _____ 198 _ 198

Bsal ___________________61 _ 34 _ 34 _ 24 _ 24 __ 20 _____ 197 _ 197

Kindred Spirit ___________ 62 _ 43 _ 25 _ 27 _ 17 __ 20 _____ 194 _ 194

Mr Stonewall ____________61 _ 31 _ 45 _ 19 _ 16 __ 22 _____ 194 _ 194

MrSkinner ______________63 _ 38 _ 15 _ 38 _ 20 __ 19 _____ 193 _ 193

Artane2002 _____________63 _ 33 _ 35 _ 17 _ 12 __ 24 _____ 184 _ 184

DOCARCH ______________ 63 _ 32 _ 23 _ 19 _ 17 __ 21 _____ 175 _ 175

sryanbruen _____________ 56 _ 41 _ 16 _ 20 _ 20 __ 19 _____ 172 _ 172

Dasa29 ________________ 57 _ 30 _ 27 _ 25 _ 20 __ 16 _____ 175 _ 172

___ NormaL _____________50 _ 39 _ 09 _ 30 _ 19 __ 24 _____ 171 _ 171

Jpmarn ________________ 45 _ 33 _ 15 _ 24 _ 24 __ 23 _____ 164 _ 164

Joe Public ______________ 44 _ 36 _ 20 _ 27 _ 17 __ 16 _____ 160 _ 160

Gonzo _________________ 59 _ 35 _ 18 _ 13 _ 14 __ 20 _____ 159 _ 159

waterways ______________53 _ 39 _ 02 _ 23 _ 22 __ 18 _____ 157 _ 157

M.T. Cranium ____________58 _ 19 _ 17 _ 21 _ 22 __ 12 _____ 149 _ 149

adam240610 ____________44 _ 25 _ 17 _ 11 _ 18 __ 21 _____ 136 _ 134

Danno _________________ 27 _ 25 _ 17 _ 20 _ 14 __ 13 _____ 116 _ 113

200motels _ (2/3) ________37 _ 32 _ 02 _ 18 _ 13 __ 09 _____ 111 _ 106

Gaoth Laidir _(1/3) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

Bazlers _ (1/3) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

esposito _ (1/3) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

=======

Top scores in each category are shown in bold. (one tied)

Second highest (with ties) in italics (except for sun which has the tie for first). Most categories have a tie for second. Normal would be second in PRC.

Appledrop has only dropped one point for IMT so far this contest year. Otherwise the top scores are running in the same range as last year, namely 70 to 80 per cent of possible scores. Overall contest leader Pauldry has a couple of second highest category scores. This may help you figure out what improvements to work on in your approach to the contest -- everyone seems to have one area that is weaker than average.

March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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