March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature and rainfall for Dublin (A)? (six points for each will provide a chance at superbonus points for everyone). Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 12.2 and 2.1).

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Tuesday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

Good luck, will post my forecast closer to the deadline as I haven't looked at the prospects very carefully yet.

Danno

Danno __________________ 6.7 _ 16.4 _ -6.2 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 7.5c and 0.4mm

Bsal

Bsal__________________ 7.1 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 077 _ 115 ____ 10.0c and 0.9mm

Gonzo

Gonzo __________________ 7.3 _ 18.6 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 11.4c and 0.3mm

pauldry

Pauldry__________________ 7.5 _ 19.5_ -4.2 _ 125 _ 102 ____ 9.4c and 5.3mm

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________________ 7.1 _ 19.0_ -2.8_ 110 _ 85____ 12.1c and 0mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.3 ___ 17.9 ___ -2.0 ___ 115 ___ 94 ___ 11.0 & 2.0mm.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ___________ 6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 108 __ 9.7 _ 1.3 mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___________ 7.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.7 _ 095 _ 100 __ 11.1c _ 0.8mm

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________________ 7.6 _ 17.9 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 90 ____ 12.9c and 1.9mm

John mac

John mac __________________ 7.2 _ 19.4 _ -4.2 _ 106 _ 099 ____ 14 _1.2mm

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir__________6.9_______19.4_______-3.1_______90________110_______14.8___0.0

Joe Public

Joe Public______________ 6.3 _ 18.4 _ -5.8_ 110 _ 90____11.3 and 4mm

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall____6.4___16.8___-4.5___83____110__8.2 and 0.0

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___________ 7.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.5 _ 130 _ 95 __ 12.7c and 5.1mm

waterways

waterways ___________ 6.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 110 __ 11.7 _ 6.3 mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________ 7.4 _ 18.3 _ -2.4 _ 118 _ 97 _ 12.9 _ 1.5 mm

adam240610

adam240610 __ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 120 __ 12.5c and 0.3mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___________ 6.5 _ 17.3 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 120 _ 10.9 _ 4.5 mm

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.3 _ -4.3 _ 115 _ 090____ 13.3c and 0.8mm

mrskinner

Skinner_____7.6_____17.8°_____-4°_____80_____120_____9.0°_____3.3

dasa29

Dasa29 __________________ 7.0 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 12.5c and 2.0mm

appledrop

Appledrop______7.2____17.8______-3.6_____105____95____11.5___1.9mm

I nearly forgot. The joys of having a newborn, at least I'm up in middle of night to be able to post!

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (A) 17th

sryanbruen _____________ 7.6 _ 17.9 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.9 and 1.9 mm

MrSkinner ______________ 7.6 _ 17.8 _ -4.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.0 and 3.3 mm

Pauldry_________________7.5 _ 19.5 _ -4.2 _ 125 _ 102 ____ 9.4 and 5.3 mm

Tae laidir _______________ 7.4 _ 18.3 _ -2.4 _ 118 _ 097 ___ 12.9 and 1.5 mm

Artane2002 _____________ 7.4 _ 17.3 _ -4.3 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 13.3 and 0.8 mm

Gonzo _________________ 7.3 _ 18.6 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 11.4 and 0.3 mm

Kindred Spirit ____________7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 11.0 and 2.0 mm

John mac _______________ 7.2 _ 19.4 _ -4.2 _ 106 _ 099 ___ 14.0 and 1.2 mm

Appledrop ____ (-1) ______ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 11.5 and 1.9 mm

Sunflower3______________ 7.1 _ 19.0 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 12.1 and 0.0 mm

Dacogawa _______________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.5 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 12.7 and 5.1 mm

___ Consensus ___________7.1 _ 17.9 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 11.6 and 1.7 mm

Bsal____________________7.1 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 077 _ 115 ___ 10.0 and 0.9 mm

DOCARCH _______________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.7 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 11.1 and 0.8 mm

Dasa29 _________________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 12.5 and 2.0 mm

waterways ______________ 6.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 11.7 and 6.3 mm

Gaoth Laidir _____________ 6.9 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.8 and 0.0 mm

adam240610 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 12.5 and 0.3 mm

___ NormaL _____________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.2 and 2.1 mm

Danno __________________6.7 _ 16.4 _ -6.2 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 7.5 and 0.4 mm

Jpmarn _________________ 6.5 _ 17.3 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 10.9 and 4.5 mm

Mr Stonewall _____________6.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.5 _ 083 _ 110 ____ 8.2 and 0.0 mm

Joe Public _______________ 6.3 _ 18.4 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 11.3 and 4.0 mm

M.T. Cranium _____________6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 108 ____ 9.7 and 1.3 mm

=========================================

Okay, will cap all MIN scores on late forecasts submitted after this post at 16/20 unless they depart 0.5 from the overnight low which appears to be around -4 C (at least). If they depart by 0.5 then their score will stand (they could still improve or they could incorporate a wrong value too mild). No edits on MIN will be accepted (I have copied posts). None of the above will apply to appledrop except that they were just into late penalty time so -1 on score.

As you see, I transformed the raw material into a table of forecasts, will add Con Sensus and any later entries during the day.

(later edit)

Have now set Con Sensus as there are no further late entries.

M.T. Cranium

Already a MIN of -4.7 at Mountdillon on 1st (Dublin -4.4, Mullingar -4.2).

appledrop

Currently -4 at Mt. Dillon & Gurteen, don't think it will be as cold as 1st for new Min but you never know.

Update currently-5 at 7am at Markee & Athenry.

pauldry

Below -5c in Markree so 1st is beaten.

DOCARCH

Low this morning of -5.4c at Mt Dillon.

appledrop

Our new Min is -5.5 at Athenry on 5th.

Now as Docarch noted also got to -5 last night in Mt. Dillon but looks like Athenry will hold the lead but will have to check official figures tomorrow.

pauldry

Wow what a cold start to March. Certainly didn't forsee all those heavy frosts at all.

Gonzo

Winter is well beaten already in terms of frost and cold temperatures by night and we're not even a full week into Spring yet. The frosts we had in the first half of May 2021 were also more regular and severe than anything we had this winter. There is a chance we may finally get winter this year in April.

appledrop

We have a new Min -5.7 at Mt. Dillon on 6th.

Fair play to those of you who went for min that low, I would never have guessed that especially after the mild winter we had.

pauldry

Yes March could be the coldest month of the "Winter" at this rate.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 4.4 C which was 2.0 below normal.

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -5.7

PRC only 22% of normal.

SUN 217.7% of normal.

Current guidance for 17th suggests it would be a mild, dry day at the end of a string of cool, wet days so with the usual margin of error at that time scale, probably every forecast about equally likely to work out.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now 5.5 F, with the second week average 6.7, 0.1 below normal.

MAX still not tracked -- perhaps Friday or Saturday will produce something there, MIN -5.7 below most forecasts.

PRC now 125 per cent of normal, after the dry start, a much wetter second week (227% of normal).

SUN continues well above average, at around 170% with the second week at 122% of normal.

The 17th looms, and a near average temperature with a somewhat showery outlook is likely.

M.T. Cranium

Getting ready to score the bonus, here are the forecasts rearranged from the forecast table into the order of temperatures predicted for the 17th at Dub (A). The number in brackets after the rainfall forecast is the ranking on that element (1 = highest forecast etc).

FORECASTER ____________ Max __ Prc

Gaoth Laidir _____________14.8 and 0.0 mm (t20)

John mac _______________14.0 and 1.2 mm (13)

Artane2002 _____________ 13.3 and 0.8 mm (t15)

sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 and 1.9 mm (t9)

Tae laidir _______________ 12.9 and 1.5 mm (11)

Dacogawa ______________ 12.7 and 5.1 mm (3)

adam240610 ____________12.5 and 0.3 mm (t18)

Dasa29 ________________ 12.5 and 2.0 mm (t7)

___ NormaL _____________12.2 and 2.1 mm (( 7 ))

Sunflower3 ____________12.1 and 0.0 mm (t20)

waterways ______________11.7 and 6.3 mm (1)

___ Consensus __________ 11.6 and 1.4 mm (( 12 ))

Appledrop ______________ 11.5 and 1.9 mm (t9)

Gonzo _________________ 11.4 and 0.3 mm (t18)

Joe Public ______________ 11.3 and 4.0 mm (5)

DOCARCH ______________ 11.1 and 0.8 mm (t15)

Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.0 and 2.0 mm (t7)

Jpmarn ________________ 10.9 and 4.5 mm (4)

Bsal _________________10.0 and 0.9 mm (14)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 9.7 and 1.3 mm (12)

Pauldry _______________ 9.4 and 5.3 mm (2)

MrSkinner _______________ 9.0 and 3.3 mm (6)

Mr Stonewall _____________8.2 and 0.0 mm (t20)

Danno __________________7.5 and 0.4 mm (17)

(Con Sensus prc changed from 1.7 to 1.4 mm, error in original calculation)

(ranks for Con and NormaL do not affect rankings of forecasters)

This work should speed up scoring once the actual values are available.

=========== 0 ===========

appledrop

Currently 13 degrees at Dublin airport and we have just had a light rain shower.

I'd say Artane could be on the money for bonus question!

appledrop

The data is in drumroll please....

It actually reached 14.2 at D.A yesterday & only 0.1mm of rain.

I'd say with two combined that's top points to Gaoth Laidir with John Mac close behind.

Of course M.T is the expert so will decide the actual points!

M.T. Cranium

The max was a rather surprising 14.2 C and rainfall just 0.1 mm. A reminder of the scoring, each element is scored out of six points to give a potential for "superbonus" additions. Gaoth Laidir took full advantage to reach 12 points and Artane2002 and sunflower3 have 10, and Adam240610, john mac are tied fourth with 9 points. Scoring has been done by clustering of similar values to average 3-5 in each group. There were always the same number of people in scoring levels for the two elements more by luck than design, and scoring levels are separated in the table by blank space.

The scoring is arranged in groups and may be slightly out of sequence for rainfall where it was possible to keep the same forecaster in one row within a scoring interval. (* with the rainfall forecast for appledrop indicates that as the reason for the apparent shift in the order within a scoring interval) ...

... The total score for each forecaster is after the second scoring entry for rainfall. Scoring details for Con Sensus and NormaL are listed at bottom of the forecaster scoring information.

For temperatures, scoring groups: __ and for rainfall, as follows:

6 pts _ Gaoth Laidir _14.8 _______6_Gaoth Laidir __ 0.0 mm ___ total 12

6 pts _ John mac ___14.0 _______6_Sunflower ____ 0.0 mm ___ total 10

6 pts _ Artane2002 _13.3 _______6_ Mr Stonewall __0.0 mm ___ total 7

5 pts _ sryanbruen _ 12.9 _______5_Adam240610 _ 0.3 mm ___ total 9

5 pts _ Tae laidir ___ 12.9 _______5_Gonzo _______0.3 mm ___ total 8

5 pts _ Dacogawa __ 12.7 _______5_Danno _______0.4 mm ___ total 6

4 pts _ adam240610_12.5 _______4_DOCARCH ___ 0.8 mm ___ total 7

4 pts _ Dasa29 ____ 12.5 _______ 4 Artane2002 __0.8 mm ___ total 10

4 pts _ Sunflower __ 12.1 _______ 4 Bsal ________0.9 mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ waterways __11.7 ________3_John mac ____1.2 mm ___ total 9

3 pts _ Appledrop __ 11.5 ________3_Appledrop ___ 1.9*mm ___ total 6

3 pts _ Gonzo _____ 11.4 ________3_M.T. Cranium _1.3 mm ___ total 5

3 pts _ Joe Public __ 11.3 ________3_tae laidir ____ 1.5 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ DOCARCH __ 11.1 ________3_sryanbruen __ 1.9 mm ___ total 8

3 pts _ Kindred Spirit 11.0 _______ 3_Kindred Spirit _2.0 mm ___total 6

3 pts _ JPmarn ____ 10.9 ________3_dasa29 ______2.0 mm ___total 7

2 pts _ Bsal _______ 10.0 ________2_MrSkinner ___ 3.3 mm ___ total 3

2 pts _ M.T. Cranium _ 9.7 ________2_Joe Public ___ 4.0 mm ___ total 5

2 pts _ Pauldry ______9.4 ________2_JPmarn _____ 4.5 mm ___ total 5

1 pt __ MrSkinner ___ 9.0 ________1_Dacogawa ____ 5.1 mm ___ total 6

1 pt __ MrStonewall __8.2 ________1_Pauldry ______ 5.3 mm ___ total 3

1 pt __ Danno ______ 7.5 ________1_waterways ____6.3 mm ___ total 4

___ NormaL ______12.2 _(4 pts) ___ NormaL _____ 2.1 mm (3 pts) _ 7 pts

___ Con Sensus ___11.6 _(3 pts) ___ Con Sensus __ 1.4 mm (3 pts) _ 6 pts

Here for the fun of it is where your forecast verified in Ireland ...

The 5 pt temp range did well in higher midlands locations, near border and south coast

The 4 pt temp range verified in west Connacht.

The 3 pt temp range verified in north Ulster.

Travel to Scotland for some readings similar to 2 and 1 pt ranges.

For rainfall, you would only have to hop a bus to get into the 5 pt range in other parts of the region, and 4 pts verified as close as the east midlands with 3 pts good at many central to western inland locations, 2 pts made the right call for locations such as Mace Head, Valentia. The 1 pt range may have verified between some western stations in heavier showers. (4.7 mm at Claremorris and 4.6 mm at Valentia the highest amounts).

From what I saw on the radar loop, 0.5-1.0 mm amounts likely fell within a few miles to the north of Dub (A). Given the hourly temps, the group with six points scored with an inter-hourly spike during the afternoon sunshine.

appledrop

Ah I knew the expert would clarify for us!

Don't know how you keep track of all the different scoring M.T. Well done to Gaoth Laidir.

While I didn't score great on bonus, I'm delighted it was even warmer and drier than we initially thought.

It was a lovely St. Patrick's Day in Dublin and it was great to see everyone out enjoying themselves at the parades.

Yep you could clearly see from RTE coverage of St. Patrick's Day that weather varied around the country, with some unlucky to have parade ruined with rain!

Another beautiful day here in Dublin for long weekend. Enjoy everyone😀

M.T. Cranium

15.8 C on Friday 18th at Phoenix Park, will see if Saturday beats that or not. Looks potentially warmer next week anyway.

pauldry

Yep at least 17c by next Tuesday

17c 70 per cent chance

18c 20 percent

19c 5 percent

20c 1 percent

DOCARCH

Max of 16.5c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

DOCARCH

Max of 17.0c yesterday at Valentia.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.4, third week average was 8.3 C which is 0.8 above normal. This may continue to climb for several days then stall or drop a bit, perhaps 7.2 is about the most likely outcome.

MAX 17.0 and MIN -5.7 ... max could increase (18.5-19.5 a possible outcome). MIN almost certainly set.

PRC now at 92% with the third week rather dry, average 27% of normal. ... If no further rain fell this month the PRC would end up near 65% of normal. We may see enough near the end of the month to reach perhaps 80%.

SUN now at 172% with the third week average 174% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this may go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is at least 150%.

BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).

DOCARCH

Max of 17.8c yesterday at Finner.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park reported 18.6 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon reported 18.8 yesterday.

pauldry

Maybe beaten today again as its 14c at 9 o clock here

appledrop

A good few stations reporting 19 degrees today so that 18.8 max looks like it will be beaten.

DOCARCH

Max of 18.9c at Newport yesterday.