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March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 26-02-2022 6:51pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

    2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

    3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

    4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature and rainfall for Dublin (A)? (six points for each will provide a chance at superbonus points for everyone). Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 12.2 and 2.1).

    Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Tuesday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

    Good luck, will post my forecast closer to the deadline as I haven't looked at the prospects very carefully yet.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno __________________ 6.7 _ 16.4 _ -6.2 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 7.5c and 0.4mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal__________________ 7.1 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 077 _ 115 ____ 10.0c and 0.9mm



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo __________________ 7.3 _ 18.6 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 11.4c and 0.3mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,811 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry__________________ 7.5 _ 19.5_ -4.2 _ 125 _ 102 ____ 9.4c and 5.3mm

    Post edited by pauldry on


  • Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3_________________ 7.1 _ 19.0_ -2.8_ 110 _ 85____ 12.1c and 0mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.3 ___ 17.9 ___ -2.0 ___ 115 ___ 94 ___ 11.0 & 2.0mm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ___________ 6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 108 __ 9.7 _ 1.3 mm



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,558 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___________ 7.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.7 _ 095 _ 100 __ 11.1c _ 0.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,460 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________________ 7.6 _ 17.9 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 90 ____ 12.9c and 1.9mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭John mac


    John mac __________________ 7.2 _ 19.4 _ -4.2 _ 106 _ 099 ____ 14 _1.2mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Gaoth Laidir__________6.9_______19.4_______-3.1_______90________110_______14.8___0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public______________ 6.3 _ 18.4 _ -5.8_ 110 _ 90____11.3 and 4mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall____6.4___16.8___-4.5___83____110__8.2 and 0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,834 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___________ 7.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.5 _ 130 _ 95 __ 12.7c and 5.1mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ___________ 6.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 110 __ 11.7 _ 6.3 mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 703 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___________ 7.4 _ 18.3 _ -2.4 _ 118 _ 97 _ 12.9 _ 1.5 mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 808 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610 __ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 120 __ 12.5c and 0.3mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,472 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ___________ 6.5 _ 17.3 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 120 _ 10.9 _ 4.5 mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.3 _ -4.3 _ 115 _ 090____ 13.3c and 0.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.6_____17.8°_____-4°_____80_____120_____9.0°_____3.3



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  • Registered Users Posts: 539 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 __________________ 7.0 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 12.5c and 2.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop______7.2____17.8______-3.6_____105____95____11.5___1.9mm

    I nearly forgot. The joys of having a newborn, at least I'm up in middle of night to be able to post!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Table of forecasts for March 2022


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (A) 17th

    sryanbruen _____________ 7.6 _ 17.9 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.9 and 1.9 mm

    MrSkinner ______________ 7.6 _ 17.8 _ -4.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.0 and 3.3 mm

    Pauldry_________________7.5 _ 19.5 _ -4.2 _ 125 _ 102 ____ 9.4 and 5.3 mm

    Tae laidir _______________ 7.4 _ 18.3 _ -2.4 _ 118 _ 097 ___ 12.9 and 1.5 mm

    Artane2002 _____________ 7.4 _ 17.3 _ -4.3 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 13.3 and 0.8 mm

    Gonzo _________________ 7.3 _ 18.6 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 11.4 and 0.3 mm

    Kindred Spirit ____________7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 11.0 and 2.0 mm

    John mac _______________ 7.2 _ 19.4 _ -4.2 _ 106 _ 099 ___ 14.0 and 1.2 mm

    Appledrop ____ (-1) ______ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 11.5 and 1.9 mm

    Sunflower3______________ 7.1 _ 19.0 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 12.1 and 0.0 mm

    Dacogawa _______________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.5 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 12.7 and 5.1 mm


    ___ Consensus ___________7.1 _ 17.9 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 11.6 and 1.7 mm


    Bsal____________________7.1 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 077 _ 115 ___ 10.0 and 0.9 mm

    DOCARCH _______________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.7 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 11.1 and 0.8 mm

    Dasa29 _________________7.0 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 12.5 and 2.0 mm

    waterways ______________ 6.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 11.7 and 6.3 mm

    Gaoth Laidir _____________ 6.9 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.8 and 0.0 mm

    adam240610 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 12.5 and 0.3 mm

    ___ NormaL _____________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.2 and 2.1 mm

    Danno __________________6.7 _ 16.4 _ -6.2 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 7.5 and 0.4 mm

    Jpmarn _________________ 6.5 _ 17.3 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 10.9 and 4.5 mm

    Mr Stonewall _____________6.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.5 _ 083 _ 110 ____ 8.2 and 0.0 mm

    Joe Public _______________ 6.3 _ 18.4 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 11.3 and 4.0 mm

    M.T. Cranium _____________6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 108 ____ 9.7 and 1.3 mm

    =========================================


    Okay, will cap all MIN scores on late forecasts submitted after this post at 16/20 unless they depart 0.5 from the overnight low which appears to be around -4 C (at least). If they depart by 0.5 then their score will stand (they could still improve or they could incorporate a wrong value too mild). No edits on MIN will be accepted (I have copied posts). None of the above will apply to appledrop except that they were just into late penalty time so -1 on score.

    As you see, I transformed the raw material into a table of forecasts, will add Con Sensus and any later entries during the day.

    (later edit)

    Have now set Con Sensus as there are no further late entries.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Already a MIN of -4.7 at Mountdillon on 1st (Dublin -4.4, Mullingar -4.2).



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Currently -4 at Mt. Dillon & Gurteen, don't think it will be as cold as 1st for new Min but you never know.

    Update currently-5 at 7am at Markee & Athenry.

    Post edited by appledrop on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,811 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Below -5c in Markree so 1st is beaten.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,558 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Low this morning of -5.4c at Mt Dillon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Our new Min is -5.5 at Athenry on 5th.

    Now as Docarch noted also got to -5 last night in Mt. Dillon but looks like Athenry will hold the lead but will have to check official figures tomorrow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,811 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Wow what a cold start to March. Certainly didn't forsee all those heavy frosts at all.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,639 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Winter is well beaten already in terms of frost and cold temperatures by night and we're not even a full week into Spring yet. The frosts we had in the first half of May 2021 were also more regular and severe than anything we had this winter. There is a chance we may finally get winter this year in April.



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