Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)

March 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

2»

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    We have a new Min -5.7 at Mt. Dillon on 6th.

    Fair play to those of you who went for min that low, I would never have guessed that especially after the mild winter we had.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,177 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes March could be the coldest month of the "Winter" at this rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 4.4 C which was 2.0 below normal.

    MAX not tracked yet, MIN -5.7

    PRC only 22% of normal.

    SUN 217.7% of normal.

    Current guidance for 17th suggests it would be a mild, dry day at the end of a string of cool, wet days so with the usual margin of error at that time scale, probably every forecast about equally likely to work out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT now 5.5 F, with the second week average 6.7, 0.1 below normal.

    MAX still not tracked -- perhaps Friday or Saturday will produce something there, MIN -5.7 below most forecasts.

    PRC now 125 per cent of normal, after the dry start, a much wetter second week (227% of normal).

    SUN continues well above average, at around 170% with the second week at 122% of normal.

    The 17th looms, and a near average temperature with a somewhat showery outlook is likely.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Getting ready to score the bonus, here are the forecasts rearranged from the forecast table into the order of temperatures predicted for the 17th at Dub (A). The number in brackets after the rainfall forecast is the ranking on that element (1 = highest forecast etc).


    FORECASTER ____________ Max __ Prc

    Gaoth Laidir _____________14.8 and 0.0 mm (t20)

    John mac _______________14.0 and 1.2 mm (13)

    Artane2002 _____________ 13.3 and 0.8 mm (t15)

    sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 and 1.9 mm (t9)

    Tae laidir _______________ 12.9 and 1.5 mm (11)

    Dacogawa ______________ 12.7 and 5.1 mm (3)

    adam240610 ____________12.5 and 0.3 mm (t18)

    Dasa29 ________________ 12.5 and 2.0 mm (t7)

    ___ NormaL _____________12.2 and 2.1 mm (( 7 ))

    Sunflower3 ____________12.1 and 0.0 mm (t20)

    waterways ______________11.7 and 6.3 mm (1)

    ___ Consensus __________ 11.6 and 1.4 mm (( 12 ))

    Appledrop ______________ 11.5 and 1.9 mm (t9)

    Gonzo _________________ 11.4 and 0.3 mm (t18)

    Joe Public ______________ 11.3 and 4.0 mm (5)

    DOCARCH ______________ 11.1 and 0.8 mm (t15)

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.0 and 2.0 mm (t7)

    Jpmarn ________________ 10.9 and 4.5 mm (4)

    Bsal _________________10.0 and 0.9 mm (14)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 9.7 and 1.3 mm (12)

    Pauldry _______________ 9.4 and 5.3 mm (2)

    MrSkinner _______________ 9.0 and 3.3 mm (6)

    Mr Stonewall _____________8.2 and 0.0 mm (t20)

    Danno __________________7.5 and 0.4 mm (17)

    (Con Sensus prc changed from 1.7 to 1.4 mm, error in original calculation)

    (ranks for Con and NormaL do not affect rankings of forecasters)

    This work should speed up scoring once the actual values are available.

    =========== 0 ===========

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Currently 13 degrees at Dublin airport and we have just had a light rain shower.

    I'd say Artane could be on the money for bonus question!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    The data is in drumroll please....

    It actually reached 14.2 at D.A yesterday & only 0.1mm of rain.

    I'd say with two combined that's top points to Gaoth Laidir with John Mac close behind.

    Of course M.T is the expert so will decide the actual points!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Ah I knew the expert would clarify for us!

    Don't know how you keep track of all the different scoring M.T. Well done to Gaoth Laidir.

    While I didn't score great on bonus, I'm delighted it was even warmer and drier than we initially thought.

    It was a lovely St. Patrick's Day in Dublin and it was great to see everyone out enjoying themselves at the parades.

    Yep you could clearly see from RTE coverage of St. Patrick's Day that weather varied around the country, with some unlucky to have parade ruined with rain!

    Another beautiful day here in Dublin for long weekend. Enjoy everyone😀



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    15.8 C on Friday 18th at Phoenix Park, will see if Saturday beats that or not. Looks potentially warmer next week anyway.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,177 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yep at least 17c by next Tuesday

    17c 70 per cent chance

    18c 20 percent

    19c 5 percent

    20c 1 percent



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Max of 16.5c yesterday at Mount Dillon.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Max of 17.0c yesterday at Valentia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 6.4, third week average was 8.3 C which is 0.8 above normal. This may continue to climb for several days then stall or drop a bit, perhaps 7.2 is about the most likely outcome.

    MAX 17.0 and MIN -5.7 ... max could increase (18.5-19.5 a possible outcome). MIN almost certainly set.

    PRC now at 92% with the third week rather dry, average 27% of normal. ... If no further rain fell this month the PRC would end up near 65% of normal. We may see enough near the end of the month to reach perhaps 80%.

    SUN now at 172% with the third week average 174% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this may go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is at least 150%.

    BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Max of 17.8c yesterday at Finner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park reported 18.6 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mt. Dillon reported 18.8 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,177 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Maybe beaten today again as its 14c at 9 o clock here



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    A good few stations reporting 19 degrees today so that 18.8 max looks like it will be beaten.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Max of 18.9c at Newport yesterday.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,177 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes that's it by the looks of things. May sneak an 18c in West today but not that high.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 7.4, third week average was 10.4 C which is 2.9 above normal. This will probably fall off a bit now and still think 7.2 is the most likely outcome.

    MAX 18.9 and MIN -5.7.

    PRC now at 69% with the fourth week almost bone dry, average 1% of normal. ... Only small amounts are expected, result will be in the range of 65 to 70 per cent.

    SUN now at 184% with the fourth week average 227.5% of normal. As our highest forecasts are 120% this will go into the minimum progression method of scoring. The most likely outcome here is 180%.

    BONUS scoring discussion above (14.2 C, 0.1 mm on 17th at Dub (A)).

    Will post some preliminary scoring as it appears almost everything is set now. April thread should appear by morning first light.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Glad to have done poorly this March. Original thought going into the month was for a mild, changeable one with a lot of southwesterly winds because of a very +AO/+NAO pattern that seasonals were going for so quite a cloudy month. Fortunately, we had a lot more easterlies with positive heights over Scandinavia instead but not far enough north to bring in very cold easterly winds.

    A much more pleasant month than I could have imagined.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    I agree Sryanbruen, it really was a beautiful March + I'm also delighted I got the forecast so wrong!

    So many stunning days and I hope everyone got to enjoy the lovely weather expecially over the St. Patrick's long weekend.

    It was one to remember.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The IMT is confirmed at 7.2, so that leaves the scoring as already shown awaiting confirmation of MAX and MIN from the MS, and assuming that PRC and SUN will be in the range where the minimum progression used is valid.

    Will leave the annual update until Monday 4th.

    By the way MIN did not change as a result but lows of -4.0 at a couple of locations for the 31st.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If the scoring holds up, this would be the annual update ... will either confirm or if March scores change, adjust this on 4th.

    New concept, Con Sensus and NormaL have ranks that are decimalized relative to the actual forecasters. Not an actual example, but 10.5 would mean a score midway between 10th and 11th place. 10.1 would be just behind 10th and 10.9 would be just ahead of 11th. Etc.


    Annual Scoring Summary (preliminary)


    Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ TOTAL


    _01 _ (01) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 ___ 212 

    01.8_(01.8)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 ___ 206

    _02 _ (08) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 ___ 204 

    _t03_ (02) __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 ___ 199

    _t03_ (05) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 ___ 199

    _t05_ (04) __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 _ 55 ___ 198

    _t05_(t06) __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 _ 61 ___ 198

    _07 _(t10) __Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 ___ 197

    _t08_ (03) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 194

    _t08_(t06) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 ___ 194

    _10 _ (12) __MrSkinner ___________63 _ 63 _ 67 ___ 193

    _11 _ (09) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 ___ 184

    _12 _(t10) __DOCARCH ___________78 _ 50 _ 47 ___ 175

    _t13_ (13) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 ___ 172

    _t13_ (14) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 172

    14.1_ (14.4)_____ NormaL _______ 60 _ 57 _ 54 ___ 171 

    _15 _ (17) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 ___ 164

    _16 _ (18) __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 _ 53 ___ 160

    _17 _ (20) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 ___ 159

    _18 _(t15) __waterways __________ 65 _ 45 _ 47 ___ 157

    _19 _(t15) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 ___ 149

    _20 _ (21) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 ___ 134

    _21 _ (24) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 ___ 113

    _22 _ (19) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- ___ 106

    _23 _ (---) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 ____ 70

    _24 _ (22) __Bazlers _____________56 _ --- _ --- ____ 56

    _25 _ (23) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- ____ 52


    ==================================================



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Confirmed scoring for March 2022

    The Monthly Summary has confirmed (or adjusted) the values used for scoring. This table is now placed in the usual order of scoring. See the preliminary table above for the notes on minimum progression. The table above this one is therefore also confirmed for annual scoring. (both PRC and SUN were a little further from our forecast range than I had estimated so that didn't change anything in terms of a need to apply minimum progression).


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Dub (A) 17th

    ___ Scoring values _______ 7.2_18.9_-5.7_062_192 __ 14.2, 0.0 __ TOTAL SCORE

    Gaoth Laidir _____________22 _ 15 _ 03*_ 11*_ 07*__ 12 ______ 70

    John mac _______________25 _ 15 _ 10*_ 06*_ 04*__ 09 ______ 69

    Bsal____________________24 _ 11 _ 05*_ 15*_ 08*__ 06 ______ 69

    MrSkinner ______________ 21 _ 09 _ 08*_ 14*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 67

    Gonzo _________________ 24 _ 17 _ 03*_ 10*_ 05*__ 08 ______ 67

    Danno _________________ 20 _ 00 _ 17*_ 12*_ 09*__ 06 ______ 64

    Sunflower3______________24 _ 19 _ 02*_ 05*_ 01*__ 10 ______ 61

    Dacogawa ______________24 _ 19 _ 05*_ 01*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 58

    Pauldry ________________ 22 _ 14 _ 10*_ 02*_ 04*__ 05 ______ 57

    Mr Stonewall ____________ 17 _ 00 _ 13*_ 13*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 57


    ___ Consensus __________ 24 _ 10 _ 05*_ 07*_ 04*__ 06 ______ 56


    Artane2002 _____________23 _ 04 _ 12*_ 04*_ 02*__ 10 ______ 55

    Jpmarn ________________ 18 _ 04 _ 12*_ 07*_ 09*__ 05 ______ 55

    Appledrop ____ (-1) ______25 _ 09 _ 06*_ 07*_ 03*__ 06 __56-1=55

    adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 00 _ 10*_ 04*_ 09*__ 09 ______ 54


    ___ NormaL _____________21 _ 06 _ 08*_ 08*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 54


    Joe Public _______________16 _ 05 _ 20*_ 05*_ 02*__ 05 ______ 53

    Tae laidir _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 01*_ 03*_ 03*__ 08 ______ 52

    Dasa29 ________________ 23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 07*__ 07 ______ 50

    sryanbruen _____________ 21 _ 10 _ 03*_ 05*_ 02*__ 08 ______ 49

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 24 _ 10 _ 01*_ 04*_ 03*__ 06 ______ 48

    DOCARCH ______________ 23 _ 02 _ 02*_ 09*_ 04*__ 07 ______ 47

    waterways ______________22 _ 04 _ 02*_ 08*_ 07*__ 04 ______ 47

    M.T. Cranium ____________16 _ 00 _ 05*_ 07*_ 06*__ 05 ______ 39

    =========================================

    Not a particularly high scoring month but well done to those who managed to get some decent scores anyway. (the annual scoring was already done and needs no further work, see post above this one).



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Category scoring for 2022 (Jan to Mar)

    This was tae laidir's great idea last year to keep track of category scoring. With three months in the contest, here's the first instalment. The high scores are highlighted in the table. The order in this table is the same as the annual scoring table. This also helps me to discover any errors in that table (none found so far).

    In this table, "tot" is the raw score of category scoring totals, and adjusted shows the contest score (after late penalties).


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_ Tot __ Adj

    __ Max possible _________ 75 _ 60 _ 60 _ 45 _ 30 __ 30+ ____300 _ 300

    Pauldry ________________ 69 _ 50 _ 37 _ 16 _ 19 __ 22 _____213 _ 212

    ___ Consensus __________ 67 _ 45 _ 31 _ 24 _ 18 __ 21 _____206 _ 206

    John mac _______________70 _ 44 _ 30 _ 24 _ 17 __ 19 _____204 _ 204

    Tae laidir _______________ 65 _ 46 _ 31 _ 19 _ 17 __ 21 _____199 _ 199

    Dacogawa ______________ 70 _ 53 _ 24 _ 17 _ 14 __ 21 _____199 _ 199

    Appledrop ______________ 74 _ 47 _ 23 _ 23 _ 18 __ 14 _____199 _ 198

    Sunflower3 ____________67 _ 50 _ 29 _ 20 _ 12 __ 20 _____ 198 _ 198

    Bsal ___________________61 _ 34 _ 34 _ 24 _ 24 __ 20 _____ 197 _ 197

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 62 _ 43 _ 25 _ 27 _ 17 __ 20 _____ 194 _ 194

    Mr Stonewall ____________61 _ 31 _ 45 _ 19 _ 16 __ 22 _____ 194 _ 194

    MrSkinner ______________63 _ 38 _ 15 _ 38 _ 20 __ 19 _____ 193 _ 193

    Artane2002 _____________63 _ 33 _ 35 _ 17 _ 12 __ 24 _____ 184 _ 184

    DOCARCH ______________ 63 _ 32 _ 23 _ 19 _ 17 __ 21 _____ 175 _ 175

    sryanbruen _____________ 56 _ 41 _ 16 _ 20 _ 20 __ 19 _____ 172 _ 172

    Dasa29 ________________ 57 _ 30 _ 27 _ 25 _ 20 __ 16 _____ 175 _ 172

     

    ___ NormaL _____________50 _ 39 _ 09 _ 30 _ 19 __ 24 _____ 171 _ 171


    Jpmarn ________________ 45 _ 33 _ 15 _ 24 _ 24 __ 23 _____ 164 _ 164

    Joe Public ______________ 44 _ 36 _ 20 _ 27 _ 17 __ 16 _____ 160 _ 160

    Gonzo _________________ 59 _ 35 _ 18 _ 13 _ 14 __ 20 _____ 159 _ 159

    waterways ______________53 _ 39 _ 02 _ 23 _ 22 __ 18 _____ 157 _ 157

    M.T. Cranium ____________58 _ 19 _ 17 _ 21 _ 22 __ 12 _____ 149 _ 149

    adam240610 ____________44 _ 25 _ 17 _ 11 _ 18 __ 21 _____ 136 _ 134

    Danno _________________ 27 _ 25 _ 17 _ 20 _ 14 __ 13 _____ 116 _ 113

    200motels _ (2/3) ________37 _ 32 _ 02 _ 18 _ 13 __ 09 _____ 111 _ 106

    Gaoth Laidir _(1/3) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

    Bazlers _ (1/3) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

    esposito _ (1/3) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52


    =======

    Top scores in each category are shown in bold. (one tied)

    Second highest (with ties) in italics (except for sun which has the tie for first). Most categories have a tie for second. Normal would be second in PRC.

    Appledrop has only dropped one point for IMT so far this contest year. Otherwise the top scores are running in the same range as last year, namely 70 to 80 per cent of possible scores. Overall contest leader Pauldry has a couple of second highest category scores. This may help you figure out what improvements to work on in your approach to the contest -- everyone seems to have one area that is weaker than average.



  • Advertisement
Advertisement