Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/14/brexit-could-lead-to-loss-of-100000-financial-services-jobs-report-warns

it was 70 000 to 100 00 for the whole uk looks to be approx 10 000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/298370/uk-financial-sector-total-financial-services-employment/

The effects of Brexit on the employment market are complex, and are currently masked by the much greater effects of the pandemic and of measures taken to alleviate the pandemic. Furthermore most modelling suggests that there will different effects in the short term and in the long term.

In the short term, a great many non-UK workers left the UK at the start of the pandemic and, because of Brexit, they have not returned, nor been replaced by other non-UK workers. This has had a significant impact on industries like hospitality, which traditionally employ a lot of non-UK labour. On the one hand, this is good if you're a UK resident looking for a job in hospitality; it is easy to get a job. On the other hand, it's bad if you are a hospitality business looking to recruit; it is very hard to recruit, and many positions are unfilled. So a person looking for a job might think that employment in the hospitality sector is booming, while the overall reality is in fact that it is shrinking; there are fewer people employed in the sector than there used to be. You see what I mean about "complex effects".

Traditionally, the result of this would have been rising wages in the sector, to attract in more workers. But modern employment markets are not simple. When times are bad real wages may stagnate but they rarely fall; instead we see, e.g., increased casualisation, workers getting fewer hours than they would wish, more workers combining wages with income support, etc, so the headline unemployment rate remains about the same, even though less work is being done and less money is being earned. And the reverse happens when times are good; wages do not rise, but workers get more shifts, and/or suffer less from casualisation. And, again, the headline unemployment rate doesn't move very much.

The UK unemployment rate has in fact got worse since the end of transition; it's gone from 3.9% to 4.2%. But this relatively modest move (a) is probably the tip of the iceberg; big changes in the employment market are not mainly reflected in sudden changes in the unemployment rate; and (b) is probably mostly the result of the pandemic anyway, not of Brexit.

The changes in the employment market resulting from Brexit will play out more slowly. Brexit represents a permanent drain on UK GDP - the government's own projections are that, long-term, Brexit will reduce UK GDP to about 4% below what it would have been without Brexit. This must adversely affect incomes, including wages; there will be less wealth produced every year to share as income. But this effect will take years to build up and, for the reasons given, is unlikely to reflect mainly in big changes in the unemployment rate. In so far as Brexit reduces the size of the workforce, the remaining workers (and, even more, work-seekers) will see themselves as being in a strong employment market; it will be easier for them to get jobs. But a smaller workforce means lower national productivity and less economic activity which, over time, will tend to put downward pressure on jobs, and the appearance of strong employment market will, over time, dissipate. At first, there will still be plenty of jobs to be had, but they will be low-grade jobs. Then, after a while, they won't be quite so plentiful any more. But you're looking at five to ten years for this to play itself out, and even then you're assuming that the present shower are not replaced in that period by a government willing to pursue a less destructive form of Brexit, which would obviously alleviate some of the harm.

but in fairness this is quite a messy subject right now , or in other words eu inflation on average is just 0.1 percent lower.

your point may well be true but i think we can already see that spain will suffer way more from covid than the uk.

not everything is brexit related.

I'm not even sure that's the case. Certainly I think many saw benefits to themselves from Brexit while ignoring the effect on the wider populace, but deep down I think that when they say 'Taking back control' they really mean it.

The mere thought that GB, that once ruled the waves and had the world's largest ever empire, was having to not only talk to others but actually sometimes agree to their ideas, was simply unacceptable.

Hence the idea of sovereignty. Thats it. They want to feel in control, even if that results in most being worse off.

Boris was name dropping Brexit a lot in his defense today against partygate in the commons. So it's not surprise that a long side the report of what a naughty little sh*tstain he's been in number 10 they've dropped an official "BENEFITS OF BREXIT" report from the government

Not surprising a fair few of them either have not in effect until 2025 or later attached to them (border control being a hilarious highlight) we have a few eye rolling pointless ones (the crown back on the pint) and of course the ones that have nothing to do with Brexit but the Uk insists it was (UK covid response). Personal laugh moment is the UK proudly announcing it's a dialogue partner to ASEAN the first in 25 years. Which just highlights that the EU has been a dialogue partner for those 25 years.

Not really. People were not told what the price was. Project Fear was dismissed. Those that voted to leave did so on the basis that there was nothing but upsides. £350 pw for the NHS for example

So it is quite right that people now point out that the product they were sold is defective and not up to the standards advertised.

Brexiteers are very happy to continually tell people of the myriad benefits (hence the report yesterday) but somehow thing that pointing out the negatives is somehow undemocratic. But no government should be let go unchallenged. Just because people voted for you in an election, doesn't mean you aren't accountable.

The same is true for Brexit (and any other vote). It is perfectly right and reasonable that the actual effects are highlighted and judged against the expectation.

Yeah, its a mess. Everyone can see that it is a mess, nobody that lists the benefits (having read some of the report yesterday is continues with the vague and unquantifiable and very short on time lines or actual outcomes) is able to give anything definitive or concrete that will benefit John or Jane Public.

Brexit, remember, was a great rebirth, A change to restart the UK, to forge a new future. And they have bene reduced to lying about freeports.

The only reasonable course is to accept that it was all a terrible mistake, not by the voters but by those that led the campaign with so little actual knowledge of the reality, and take corrective action. But very few are ready to accept that yet. It is certainly not a majority vote winner.

The best that can be hoped for in the medium term is that the antagonistic rhetoric is dialled back, quieter behind the scenes talks are held to gradually move the UK back towards a closer relationship with the EU. That requires the EU to play ball and it seems at this point in time the EU are not in that mindset (I don't blame them).

But that is a long way off, Labour won't be running on such a platform and obviously the current government have nothing else except arguments with the EU. SO we are looking at close to 10 years at least.

The secrecy in which the UK government operates is scary. Everything about protecting the party at all costs. Now we have the gang of chancers who are Ministers secretly gaining new powers - the "Brexit Freedoms Bill." Or, as was discussed here now years ago, a bonfire of regulations.

Apparently there'll be a companion document " The Benefits of Brexit: How the UK Is Taking Advantage of Leaving the EU." I wonder if that'll be longer than the Sue Gray report 😆

If you have to explain why Brexit is working it is a good indicator that it isn't.

Lynton Crosby seems to be distancing himself from No.10

Either way we would remain in the EU! But your point is correct, people would vote based on emotion and not on economics, like the reunification of Berlin.