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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    It's a proposed "hospitality curfew" - which is still a curfew.



  • Posts: 24,009 Kason Ambitious Underpass


    Weather forecasting was revolutionised by computer science and the application of numerous forecast models simultaneously, giving a range from probable best case and worst case scenarios, narrowing down fairly accurately the likelihood of weather in a given area during a given timescale.

    I know nothing of how pandemic modelling is applied by NPHET, and would be interested in being enlightened. Would it include multiple (I mean hundreds as in meteorology) possibilities with data modelling rendering the most likely scenarios?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 786 ✭✭✭foxsake


    to what end?

    to sell the restrictions to the angry public

    the leak gives a whopping terrible scenario...the the government announce a half way solution and claim they saved christmas.

    people who don't see their game - think "it could have been worse" not realising they have just bought the bag of sh1te being sold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭dragonkin


    I think the most effective solution is full lockdown however the other options you gave, vaccination, covid passes, hospitality lockdown etc. are less effective measures that are still designed to contain the spread and reduce hospitalisations/pressure on the hospital system. There were interviews yesterday on RTE with ICU nurses who are at their wits end, this pandemic has been relentless, they need to be protected. The covid passes will be here to at least the end of next year and I would say there will be a few more long term measures put in place, so forget 2019 that's not coming back anytime soon.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,389 ✭✭✭✭gmisk




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,921 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    So is his highness speaking at 6?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,938 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    If you had been going to that doctor for 2 years, done everything he said and your condition never improved, at what point do you get a 2nd opinion?

    What if your doctor was Harold Shipman?

    Is there ever, ever a situation where you stop and think that maybe this doctor isn't all that good at his job?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Hospitality owners are never happy with the rate of infection and dangers associated to omicron they are lucky to be allowed stay open at all!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 222 ✭✭franciscanpunk


    I think todays leak just further reminded me that restrictions are permanent, there will never be a return to normalitybin Ireland



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    There are a range of assumptions they make about the disease and they feed them into a model which generates a range of scenarios. So if your assumptions are wrong or faulty the model will be of no use. One example of that is how many will end up in hospital and we know their assumption here is wrong, set at 2%-2.5% when real life data showed that it was about 1%. There is also an estimate of how many cases are undetected and that AFAIK goes from a range of 40%-60%. They haven't taken account of vaccines or booster programmes nor any data on public responses. All told they are not all that useful but they are our only policy tool



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,841 ✭✭✭TomTomTim


    You wouldn't dare say that to any publicans face, and this is why the internet is both revealing and dangerous. We get to see a side of humanity that we never seen before, usually from the type of people who aren't outspoken in real world, and are of timid appearance. The same people, behind their phones/laptops, become opposites of what they are in reality, they become brave champions of horrible things, things that they'd never dare utter in the real world.

    “The man who lies to himself can be more easily offended than anyone else. You know it is sometimes very pleasant to take offense, isn't it? A man may know that nobody has insulted him, but that he has invented the insult for himself, has lied and exaggerated to make it picturesque, has caught at a word and made a mountain out of a molehill--he knows that himself, yet he will be the first to take offense, and will revel in his resentment till he feels great pleasure in it.”- ― Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 935 ✭✭✭darconio


    Well if they are so effective to contain the spread, that we still we need a lockdown, means they are not effective aren't they? Give me a break with the nurses at their wits end for the relentless pandemic, the hospitalization rate has been from nearly non existent to stable for the past 6 months at least, at this stage I am quite sure you are just trolling



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 336 ✭✭ThePopehimself


    Does anybody know if the 5pm curfew will apply to Weddings?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 336 ✭✭ThePopehimself





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    On your Water-Meter point,I may be mistook,but all along Mourne Road in Driminagh,Dublin there is what looks suspiciously like a major Water-Meter installation porgramme in place for the past three weeks......It's not beyond the imagination of the crazies to link the electronic meters to your vaccine status.


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 343 ✭✭Shilock


    Of sorts yes, it doesn't effect me but I still like to see men and women out enjoying themselves especially when they did all was asked and complied with the suggestions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    True, the amount of talk of last straws and taking to the streets in this thread!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭dragonkin


    NPHET are not acting independently they are following EU/WHO advice. We’re not on a solo run, Netherlands has a similar approach. China/Asia are even stricter. What is the alternative?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 868 ✭✭✭Denny61


    What about shops ..and shopping centers and non vital services ..are they going to be hit with restrictions



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,470 ✭✭✭MOH


    So we have Tony Holohan, who leaving his pre-Covid shenanigans aside, looked at the evidence at the very start of the pandemic and told people it was OK to visit nursing homes.

    Philip Nolan, a man who has gathered significant experience over the past 20 years (as a university administrator), who has stated that proper contact tracing is an "academic exercise" and antigen tests are "snake oil". And more recently made allegations about ventilation efficiency which were contradicted by NPHET's own team of ventilation experts (who actually have relevant experience)l.

    Cillian de Gascun, who at least does seem to fit the bill of a relevant expert, still stated 18 months ago that we had the infrastructure in place to quickly trace and isolate clusters and should be able to avoid future lockdowns. Which was simply not true, no such infrastructure existed as we found out from Nolan's contract tracing comments in September (which ironically were made while trying again to blame pubs for everything).

    These are the experts whose statements you unthinkingly follow?

    Also, NPHET certainly do not have to take into account what's politically palatable. Their role is solely to provide medical-based advice to the democratically elected government, whose job it is to determine what measures to actually implement.

    Which hasn't stopped NPHET repeatedly showing utter contempt for democracy with leaks designed to try to influence public opinion and force the government to follow a particular course of action.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 286 ✭✭purplefields


    This time last year I remember people posting about a 'casedemic'. There were lots of cases but not much hospitalisations - or something like that. Then January happened.

    Now we have a shiny new ultra-contagious new variant.

    What happens if we have a repeat of last year? - What if in January, cases explode?

    We could be in a situation where critical infrastructure is at risk if everyone catches this all at once. I would not like to be in a situation where we are getting power cuts because the national grid can't be maintained because half the work force are out sick or isolating. Where shops can't open because of lack of staff. You better not get sick with anything, because there won't be much of a health service operating! - they'll be first hit with staff absences.

    So I'd rather go with a 5:00pm closing...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,792 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    The WHO recommend using restrictions only in order bulk up public health services, the EMA recommend HEPA filters in classrooms

    Seems to me NPHET pick and choose what advice to follow, meaning they act independently



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭dragonkin


    Lol, you’re just living in a fantasy world. I suppose all those nurses were just lying? I saw a 21 year old girl who was missing her birthday due to short staff and forced to work in this pandemic.

    they’re not perfect but they bring extra time to find better vaccines.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61 ✭✭Tony Manero


    Posturing BS from them. 99% of the whingers and moaners will continue to do just that and no more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 336 ✭✭ThePopehimself


    Thank you. It will really sting if so. I hope clarity is delivered soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    Tbf I'd have to point the finger at myself for that too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    So now it's lockdown until there are better vaccines? When will that be? Any in the pipeline?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Incorrect. I’ve a friend who owns a number of pubs across the city and we’ve discussed it at length, he largely agrees. He’s been a publican for 40+ years and acknowledges that this is an absolutely unusual situation, he is grateful for the government throughout the year - you probably don’t know a single publican yourself spouting that absolute nonsense.

    The pandemic has caused a lot of frustration, anger and hurt to everyone on this island. We have all suffered, publicans are not an exception.



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