NIO

Wolf of Harcourt Street has released a NIO stock analysis in his newsletter

https://www.wolfofharcourtstreet.com/p/nio-inc-investment-thesis

Brutal, but investors obviously are still very confident. The stock went up yesterday. I'm in heavy on Nio, and plan to stay there.

Just wondering what your expectations of how high the share price will go, or are you holding for longer term.

Hopefully many more +5% days to come. NEO park (their new factory, will produce over a million cars a yr) is ahead of schedule and should be up and running for summer 2022 instead of the autumn. Another bank price upgrade, to 70$. Nio is something like 18% of my overall portfolio, I do need to move away from growth stocks, however I'm very optimistic about Nio still so will happily be hanging onto all them shares.

Very good read. And yep I'm certainly guilty of being blinker at times with NIO, the risks that are meantioned there:

Chip shortage

CCP regulation

Share Diluted

Lithium supply

Competition

On the chip shortage, I think this is quite well priced in already, NIO cut their projections back in the early summer (which lead to the share price dropping back to low 30s), and its steady increases back to 40 as they have largely slightly beat all their revised projections. They are already researching chip development in-house to attempt to mitigate this problem moving forwards, that obviously won't be for another few yrs. China itself wants to try solve its chip shortage by simply taking back over Taiwan lol (to get control of TSM and several other chip companies such as UMC etc), how China will manage that without serious worldwide sanctions I don't know, the CCP are aggressive but not quite that confrontational.

On the CCP themselves, I think they already very much so have NIO under their thumb, Will Li the NIO CEO is certainly no Jack Ma, as in is no way as outspoken or vocal about hisown plans, instead he largely toes the line with the CCP. Also the CCP already bailed out NIO, and have some control of the state owned JAC factories that are producing the NIO cars. So can I see a massive unexpected rug pull similar to what happened BABA this year, no I don't think so.

More share Dilute will most likely happen, the Chinese especially are guilty of it, at the very least they tend to do it during bull phases when investors do not feel it nearly as badly. Its a very easy way of generating capital, so yep you need to absolutely price this into any future expectedly valuations.

Lithium supply is one I really haven't done any homework on, I am invested in some lithium mining to help reduce this risk for me (at least if say NIO is limited by lithium moving forwards I'll hopefully benefit from them stocks ha)

Competition is an interesting one. NIO definitely needs to enter the lower segments of the market (the talk is they might produce a subdivision under a different brand), and how well received they will be in the international market time will tell. Tesla in terms of competition is an interesting one, personally I think Tesla is horribly guilty of refusing to update its models quick enough, the model S is almost a 9yr old car now, yep plenty of upgrades along the way but no new restyling, and nothing really in the pipeline? Japan doesn't seem to be pushing EV development nearly as much as other counties, and obviously a huge number of manufactures are based there. The likes of Ford, VW and other European manufacturers will certainly hit hard across the next few yrs, will NIO of managed to get its foot in the door sufficiently before then in the US and enough European countries by then?

Anyways I'm still very optimistic about NIO, however will it follow the Tesla path and like 10x across the next few yrs, small possiblity but I'll happily absolutely not expect that, instead I'm comfortable with a risk to reward of something closer to 1 to 1 across the next 2yrs, it could double to 80 or drop back to 20. Either way it won't actually change my life.

When all is said and done, NIO needs to significantly increase its production-so it can sell more cars. That's really down to them getting their new factory open.

The chip shortage that everyone keeps talking about, doesn't really seem to be causing the level of problems that were first envisaged - and you've got a bunch of massive chip manufacturers all looking to increase output, so the problem will be resolved in time.

EVs are here to stay, given the push for greener power, and NIO is very well positioned in the Chinese Market, so they'll get volume sales, once they can produce the cars.

A friend of mine recently collected his Tesla, having had to wait 6 months (in the States), since he ordered it, so that shows the demand for EVs is there...

NIO's step into Norway got me really excited, as I want to see them expand further across Europe. I just love their Battery as a Service concept, and think its a game changer, if they can get enough cars to market (and enough battery exchange depots, obviously). In my view, NIOs next step should be to look at building a factory in Europe, to support growth in the European market. While they may not have sufficient resources to finance that, surely there are enough European motor companies, to offer them the chance to do it on a joint venture basis - allowing NIO to leverage off existing dealer networks etc, not just building the cars in Europe ?

Hmm I accidentally posted the above tweet, and now in the new mobile site its impossible for me to delete it lol. Anyways.

But yeh Garrett the Nov and Dec delivery figure's will be telling, I'm hoping there will be a very significant ramp up now that the assembly lines fully up and running and the et7 being cranked out, will we see them make up for the losses in Oct, thats the real test this year. NIO day dec 19th, pure media hype (sh1te), but hopefully will push on the share price into the new year. Still holding onto 1500 shares and I've no plans to take profit's unless it goes parabolic to like 80.

Assuming that's happening soon, it's massive, in terms of them being serious about selling into the European Market.

In not sure how quickly they can replace the "lost" October deliveries, due to retooling, but I'm looking for good numbers for the final two months of the year, in terms of new EVs rolling out the factory door.

Why they don't license their BAAS concept and tech, is beyond me. I think it's a game changer, and allows cars to be sold cheaper on Day 1 (which the global market needs). Baffling really, and if they are too slow with roll out, they'll miss important market share, on a global basis.

The market cap is like 52 billion? Seems extremely overvalued imo.

All EV companies are going by traditional metrics

Eh, no. That sounds like a recipe for disaster to me

I often go balls deep in SPACs pre-merger so I'm not shy of risk, but I wouldn't touch NIO or any other Chinese stock with a bargepole atm. What's your average?

I almost got hammered by TIGR earlier in the year but thankfully I cut my losses before it was too late, look at it now... shudders

The arse falling out of NIO...its under $30 now. Think its to do with contagion from the other Chinese companies that are getting walloped....also maybe just maybe the EV field is getting very crowded...and not everyone can be a winner.

I sold most of my shares a few weeks back when the SP just nudged above my BEP at $42 Let the rest go today as my stop loss of $30 got triggered.

I agree with all of that, Wingman.

Perhaps, we've both been reading the same articles, lately ;)

I reckon that NIO will start delivering bigger numbers, month on month, now, whi h will help.

They appear to still have to get over the chip issue, which clearly isn't unique to NIO, but I do get a sense that they aren't sourcing chips as easily as silver of their rivals.

While every new company wants to go it alone, NIO strike me as an obvious company to seek a European partner - to help them grow faster, expand their footprint across Europe quicker and perhaps most immortality, to get their BAAS concept out faster - as its clearly a game changer, but could end up like Betamax did when it competed with VHS a few decades ago.

NIO Day live stream now

https://youtu.be/cIJaP79jkco