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NIO

  • 06-11-2019 10:33am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 445 ✭✭ canonball5


    Just wondering what people's opinions are on NIO the Chinese electric car manufacturing company.

    I was following it for a while, share price went from 10.16 to 1.32 in a year. I jumped in at 1.60 and very happy to be up 46% in a week.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,834 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    canonball5 wrote: »
    Just wondering what people's opinions are on NIO the Chinese electric car manufacturing company.

    I was following it for a while, share price went from 10.16 to 1.32 in a year. I jumped in at 1.60 and very happy to be up 46% in a week.

    You have been following this company for sometime so why did the price drop from 10.16 to 1.32 and why was it attractive to you at 1.60?


  • Registered Users Posts: 445 ✭✭ canonball5


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    You have been following this company for sometime so why did the price drop from 10.16 to 1.32 and why was it attractive to you at 1.60?

    What is this, I ask a question and you ask a question??

    I'm asking people what their opinion is of this company as an investment!!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,834 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    canonball5 wrote: »
    What is this, I ask a question and you ask a question??

    I'm asking people what their opinion is of this company as an investment!!

    And why should anyone bother sharing their analysis and work on the topic when you are unwilling to do the same. The two questions are simple, it should not be very difficult for you to answer them if you are following the company.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭ crushproof


    canonball5 wrote: »
    Just wondering what people's opinions are on NIO the Chinese electric car manufacturing company.

    I was following it for a while, share price went from 10.16 to 1.32 in a year. I jumped in at 1.60 and very happy to be up 46% in a week.

    Lucky you! I got in at 5.06, one of my worst investments of the year!


  • Registered Users Posts: 445 ✭✭ canonball5


    crushproof wrote: »
    Lucky you! I got in at 5.06, one of my worst investments of the year!

    I think it depends on what your long term plans are. Apparently their cars are really high quality and look fantastic. I know they have been losing shed loads of money lately but with a rumour that the Chinese government might step in, I'd be quietly confident they will turn it around.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,834 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    canonball5 wrote: »
    I think it depends on what your long term plans are. Apparently their cars are really high quality and look fantastic. I know they have been losing shed loads of money lately but with a rumour that the Chinese government might step in, I'd be quietly confident they will turn it around.

    This is a company that not only is burning through cash a rate of knots, but has serious difficulties in raising further funding and in fact it's most recent attempt fell through. Base on it current cash holdings, if it continues it will survive a couple of more months before it crashes out. And it's gone through it's second senior financial manager in a couple of months.

    There is no incentive for the Chinese government or anyone else for that matter to step in, it's cheaper to let it burn out and pick up the pieces in a couple of months and the Chinese government are not in the business of making westerners wealthy.

    The company's immediate problem is funding and given that they seem to have no access to such funding, you can expect if it is to be found in will come at a sever cost to the current shareholders in some form of capital restructuring exercise.

    This is a very small company, a penny stock subject to all the usual risks of manipulation etc... and it will be difficult to get out when the bad news comes.

    This is not by any stretch of the imagination an investment grade stock and should be avoided by anyone serious about growing their wealth.

    You've basically bought a block of debt on the hope that something good will happen.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,833 ✭✭✭✭ neris


    Pump & dump
    canonball5 wrote: »
    Just wondering what people's opinions are on NIO the Chinese electric car manufacturing company.

    I was following it for a while, share price went from 10.16 to 1.32 in a year. I jumped in at 1.60 and very happy to be up 46% in a week.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,834 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    neris wrote: »
    Pump & dump

    Absolutely, it's an ideal candidate - a small company with a topical product. And that's why all the investing advice to is to steer well clear of anything below a small cap stock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭ virginmediapls


    Is jumping into this at 13.42 crazy?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,225 ✭✭✭ Kilboor


    Is jumping into this at 13.42 crazy?

    I'd say so but as a short term play for quick gains you could be ok.

    Stock price booming on hype of the next Tesla. At the end of the day it's a Chinese company burning through cash and call me prejudiced but after Luckin Coffee and well in general the shady standards that occur with Chinese business I wouldn't be putting my money near it.

    Also worth noting that in general Chinese middle class massively prefer foreign products especially cars. When competition heats up it will be hit hugely.

    The battery swap technology is neat though!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    I had 1700 worth of shares that I got for like 3.50 back in jan, and I was only glad to be able to offload in April for similar again when all the talk of how desperately stuck for cash flow they were ugggghhhh­. Picked up more at 5$ at the start of the ev rally at least, and doubled up at 12/13 on the dip the last few weeks, there is plenty of crazy talk of them going to 20/50/100+, who knows however 12 has held as support very well the last while so unless the whole market tanks I'm comfortable with sitting on them for now. Earnings announcement tomorrow, so we'll could see a pre earnings pump today maybe up towards 14.50, however that's possibly priced in already. If earnings are extremely good perhaps it will drive on towards 16/17, who knows, however there does also tend to be abit of a sell-off in the few days post earnings also as people take profit. I got a order in at 11.40e for another few shares now, which might get filled if there is a dip in prices around 15 mins or so after the opening bell for the US market which is now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ garrettod


    Interesting to see what's been said here, to date...those who stayed in must be happy with their profits, even if they haven't cashed in yet.

    It's currently trading at $18.55, up in recent days.

    Latest results still showed losses, albeit lower than the market expected, with revenue above market expectations and delivery of vehicles almost double what they were in Q2, last year (granted, we're still only talking 10,000 odd units in a quarter).

    NIO is predicting further growth in sales this quarter, somewhere between 11,000 - 11,500 units, which would be a decent uplift imho.

    While the company continues to lose money, its cashburn appears to be slowing, while the concern from earlier this year about the company running out of cash, has now been addressed with funding from Tencent Holdings. Nio was said to have approx $1.6bn in cash and near cash, as at the end of June.

    Ultimately, we're still looking at a small, loss making company, here, that's massively over valued, based on traditional investment analysis and yet, if you fancy a flutter - there's a bit of a decent story here.

    I've a modest investment in this one, in the expectation that it'll follow on Tesla's coat tails for another while, but also because it's a small enough company to potentially become a target for one of the bigger, old school, motor companies (assuming they can persuade the Chineese to let them buy it, or more likely form some sort of JV with Nio).

    Thanks,

    G.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    $21 now. My only question is how much of a bubble is it in? I learnt the hard way before to let my winners run so definitely not getting out yet.


  • Site Banned Posts: 280 ✭✭ CertifiedSimp


    50% increase in 5 days.

    Either it was massively undervalued and then everyone realised at the one time or its all speculation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ garrettod


    50% increase in 5 days.

    Either it was massively undervalued and then everyone realised at the one time or its all speculation.

    Given what we've seen happen with Tesla, one can't be surprised to see the price go up here too... Its probably rising on the wave, more then anything else, at the moment.

    The next quarter sales update will be interesting, given the period of time involved etc. If they even match last quarters sales, that'll be a decent result imho. If they achieve the circa 10% growth that they are aiming for, it'll be a very good result, given the timing, impact of Covid - 19 etc.

    Thanks,

    G.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ p to the e


    Electric vehicle companies all seem to be affected by the Tesla bubble. Check out Green Power Motor Company


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,225 ✭✭✭ Kilboor


    I'll put my hands up here and say I was dead wrong about the market perception of NIO


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ garrettod


    Kilboor wrote: »
    I'll put my hands up here and say I was dead wrong about the market perception of NIO

    In general about the company, its potential etc.?

    or

    The price rise, since you posted in early Aug?

    I'm not trying to be smart here btw, just wondering if you've changed your thinking on the company, really.

    For me, when all is said and done, the key question is how are their sales doing, quarter on quarter?

    Thanks,

    G.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,225 ✭✭✭ Kilboor


    garrettod wrote: »
    In general about the company, its potential etc.?

    or

    The price rise, since you posted in early Aug?

    I'm not trying to be smart here btw, just wondering if you've changed your thinking on the company, really.

    For me, when all is said and done, the key question is how are their sales doing, quarter on quarter?

    No smartness taken don't worry.

    Regarding the price rise is what I mean, I haven't relooked at the fundamentals but I didn't think the market would pump it this high especially since Nio has had a number of dodgy sales figures, management concerns, and other unusual dealings over the last few years.

    What I did not account for though was the influx of new traders into the market over the last few months and how the historical mismanagement of Nio would not be a factor. There's also no doubt a huge EV bubble still growing.

    I think this company may cause me to reassess my outlook on Chinese companies. It's an area I tend to avoid

    Edit: On second look at my original post I did say that in the short term it would be worth a look, I suppose we are still in the short term.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ p to the e


    Another EV company I have been looking at is Workhorse Group (NASDAQ:WKHS).

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-workhorse-group-stock-still-172302791.html


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    EV stocks to Tesla are like alt coins to bitcoin, the Tesla rally across the last 9months has really opened up the whole EV space. This EV stock rally has gone on longer and stronger than I had expected, I thought it would be a fad that would of gone away after afew weeks, but doesn't look like the case now. Ultimately the transition from IC to EV is still going to be a slow process, across the next decade, and not in the time frame of weeks and months that the stock market works on. I've a reasonable stake in NIO myself still, this is as much because they are Chinese based, so huge market potential for them, alongside a very good CAO. I'm still looking at my price target to take out some reasonable profits from them however, plenty people talking them up and saying share price could be 100+ across the next Yr or so, impossible to tell but I'll think I'll be cashing out a reasonable amount at 40$ which would be over 200% gain. Companies like Workhorse, Tortoise, Nikola especially, they have seen huge share price increases over last while, but is there room for all of them? Tesla is here to stay definitely, but there probably will be heavy casualties along the way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ garrettod


    Timmaay wrote: »
    EV stocks to Tesla are like alt coins to bitcoin,

    .... Companies like Workhorse, Tortoise, Nikola especially, they have seen huge share price increases over last while, but is there room for all of them? Tesla is here to stay definitely, but there probably will be heavy casualties along the way.

    There's a big difference between EV companies and cryptos though, EV companies are producing vehicles that in principal, have already been adopted into day to day life.

    Clearly, there'll be winners and loosers in the EV space, but those with good tech and good products have a double chance of success - either on a stand alone basis, or as a potential takeover target, with some of the old world vehicle manufacturers likely to buy in tech and expertise, if they can't replicate it.

    For me, NIO is in a better place than most other EV companies - it's already selling vehicles and is likely to get strong support in the Chinese and Asian markets. However, that said, it still needs to grow market share and get to breakeven or better, so as to stop burning cash.

    Thanks,

    G.



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭ bobbyy gee


    You buy car and lease the battery for 150 a month the want to swap out battery instead of. Charging it

    Electric cars are nearly double price petrol cars


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ p to the e


    I think the battery swap is a decent idea. With a large population like China there's going to be large population density so there won't be that much room for charging stations especially with the amount of high rises. Go to the garage and get a freshly charged battery instead of filling up the tank with petrol. No waiting for it to charge.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ p to the e




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    p to the e wrote: »

    That news was out last week, its definitely priced in already. NIO stock has tended to rally tail end of the month in anticipation of the end of month delivery figures and then tailed off immediately after the results as people take profits, and into the 1st week of the next month, so my feeling is it will drop back abit further still towards 20$. If the whole market rallys on whatever random Trump isn't dead catalysts then NIO could well buckle this and head on towards 22/23. My lose aim is to let it dip back towards 20$ (however I'll be happy if it stays around low 21$ which is a strong support line the min), and swing trade it again up until the end of Oct results come out. The only thing that might throw October delivery numbers are the week long Chinese holidays, so factory closed that week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ p to the e


    Timmaay wrote: »
    That news was out last week, its definitely priced in already. NIO stock has tended to rally tail end of the month in anticipation of the end of month delivery figures and then tailed off immediately after the results as people take profits, and into the 1st week of the next month, so my feeling is it will drop back abit further still towards 20$. If the whole market rallys on whatever random Trump isn't dead catalysts then NIO could well buckle this and head on towards 22/23. My lose aim is to let it dip back towards 20$ (however I'll be happy if it stays around low 21$ which is a strong support line the min), and swing trade it again up until the end of Oct results come out. The only thing that might throw October delivery numbers are the week long Chinese holidays, so factory closed that week.

    I thought this came out on Friday after hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    p to the e wrote: »
    I thought this came out on Friday after hours

    No Fri morning (Irish time), it possibly was after hours for the Asia market, but it traded on frankfurt and New York with them figures out, where it briefly rallied to ath of mid 22s then back to 21s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭ garrettod


    Timmaay wrote: »
    ... The only thing that might throw October delivery numbers are the week long Chinese holidays, so factory closed that week.

    That's a good point, but I would assume that analysts will adjust for the closed week, when considering month on month numbers.

    Personally, I rather compare quarters, to single months, but a week's break is still a week's break.

    Any idea if the motor retailers are open that will, as it could also make for a big well for retail sales?

    Thanks,

    G.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,386 ✭✭✭✭ Timmaay


    Timmaay wrote: »
    That news was out last week, its definitely priced in already. NIO stock has tended to rally tail end of the month in anticipation of the end of month delivery figures and then tailed off immediately after the results as people take profits, and into the 1st week of the next month, so my feeling is it will drop back abit further still towards 20$. If the whole market rallys on whatever random Trump isn't dead catalysts then NIO could well buckle this and head on towards 22/23. My lose aim is to let it dip back towards 20$ (however I'll be happy if it stays around low 21$ which is a strong support line the min), and swing trade it again up until the end of Oct results come out. The only thing that might throw October delivery numbers are the week long Chinese holidays, so factory closed that week.

    Hmm missed the boat in the mid 20$ range during Trumps money printing tweets, and looks like its on north of 22 now. Maybe next time lol.


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