Looking for stats on % of unvaccinated people in ICU with underlying conditions

Donald Trump · 29-11-2021 1:27pm

@Danno To make it a little easier for you I won't even use "soccer" or "hair colour". I will use actual names.

Below is a list of 100 boys (taken from some random list of top 100 boys names but that is irrelevant.) What is relevant is that the first 6 have chosen to be unvaccinated. They are identified by name and their names are in bold. The rest have chosen to be vaccinated.

Under your (conservative) assumptions used in your example, these unvaccinated 6 will provide 50% of the ICU patients coming from the population (100). The other 94 will provide the other 50% of the ICU patients coming from the population.

Your assertion is that, if those 6 boys had instead got vaccinated along with everyone else, (Suppose they were initially hesitant because they were afraid of needles but after 5 minutes the doctor convinced them), then they would have instead provided 43% of ICU patients . And the other 94 would have provided the other 57%. You need to be able to tell us why {Liam, Noah, Oliver, Elijah,William,James} have 11x the probability of ending up in ICU just because they were initially a little hesitant. Everyone is equally vaccinated in the alternate scenario.

Liam

Noah

Oliver

Elijah

William

James

Benjamin

Lucas

Henry

Alexander

Mason

Michael

Ethan

Daniel

Jacob

Logan

Jackson

Levi

Sebastian

Mateo

Jack

Owen

Theodore

Aiden

Samuel

Joseph

John

David

Wyatt

Matthew

Luke

Asher

Carter

Julian

Grayson

Leo

Jayden

Gabriel

Isaac

Lincoln

Anthony

Hudson

Dylan

Ezra

Thomas

Charles

Christopher

Jaxon

Maverick

Josiah

Isaiah

Andrew

Elias

Joshua

Nathan

Caleb

Ryan

Adrian

Miles

Eli

Nolan

Christian

Aaron

Cameron

Ezekiel

Colton

Luca

Landon

Hunter

Jonathan

Santiago

Axel

Easton

Cooper

Jeremiah

Angel

Roman

Connor

Jameson

Robert

Greyson

Jordan

Ian

Carson

Jaxson

Leonardo

Nicholas

Dominic

Austin

Everett

Brooks

Xavier

Kai

Jose

Parker

Adam

Jace

Wesley

Kayden

Silas

Furze99 · 29-11-2021 1:28pm

I've heard it reported that certain groups are more likely not to be vaccinated. Including those with poorer grasp of English and Irish travellers. It'd be interesting to know if they are over represented in hospital and ICU wards due to Covid. And if so, what is being done about it.

Lumen · 29-11-2021 1:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239304#Comment_118239304

Regarding the foreign-born stuff it's there in the article Mr Trump posted.

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/1122/1262461-unvaccinated-hse-hospital-admissions/

There's a section on Pavee Point's website about COVID.

https://www.paveepoint.ie/stay-safe-from-coronavirus-covid-19/

Furze99 · 29-11-2021 1:50pm

It'd be interesting to know if the HSE is actively addressing these groups. It's always dangerous to fingerpoint at minority groups...but if the rest of us are doing our bit and they ain't. Well there needs to be a crackdown.

Danno · 29-11-2021 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239443#Comment_118239443

A "crackdown". As pointed out in the PT article, 1-in-4 unvaccinated are originally from eastern European nations, nations with different attitudes to governments than native Irish people have. And for very good reason too - many of those nations are formerly communist.

You want to give them more of that style of rule aka crackdown. That won't end well.

seamus · 29-11-2021 2:05pm

The foreign-born stuff is interesting. Perhaps we need to look at an EU-wide campaign by the ECDC that offers local information to expats. So a Polish person listening to Polish radio hears an ECDC ad about the vaccine and is directed to a website that contains information in Polish that tells them how to get vaccinated (as well as all the other health measures) in Ireland?

The 2016 census indicated that just under half a million people were foreign-born and spoke a foreign language at home. 83% of these reported being able to speak English "very well", but as the article above points out, they may still listen almost exclusively to their home media.

Seems like a strong push to get the message out to them could yield good results.

Lumen · 29-11-2021 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239443#Comment_118239443

Are you suggesting applying sanctions to unvaccinated people based on their ethnicity?

Cianos · 29-11-2021 2:24pm

The only possible argument left from anti-vaxx point of view to seek to excuse the disproportionate burden the unvaccinated are placing on the healthcare system, and in doing so degrading the level of care for everyone else (ref to cancelation of elective surgeries etc), is that their numbers can be explained by those who weren't viable for the vaccine anyway. ie that their profile is typically;

John

Suffering from condition X.

Condition X excludes John from getting vaccinated, even though John would otherwise probably get it.

John gets Covid and ends up in ICU and is counted as unvaccinated

(I believe quite a few pregnant women were of this type, although afaik the vaccines have been approved for pregnancy since).

rather than;

Joe

No underlying conditions

Unvaccinated because afraid of needles.

Joe gets Covid and ends up in ICU

(I believe most people's impression of the average unvaccinated ICU Covid patient would be represented by this type)

Can the John scenario even explain the disproportionate representation of unvaccinated?

sydthebeat · 29-11-2021 2:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118238576#Comment_118238576

How does an individual getting vaccinated protect others from Covid?

congratulations on the posting the dumbest question on boards.ie in years

Graces7 · 29-11-2021 2:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118218067#Comment_118218067

Excellent point. As one of the folk not viable for vaccination /immunocompromised I wonder about that too. BUT I am also sure that those of us in that situation take extra care to avoid infection simply because we know the danger we are in if we get infected. I certainly do. NB just a thought but is age factored in also? And I do not think the anti vaxxer has a valid point by the way.

29-11-2021 2:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239640#Comment_118239640

So if we follow your logic what should we do with smokers, alcoholics, the obese as they place a disproportionate burden on the health system?

Cianos · 29-11-2021 2:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239838#Comment_118239838

Can you explain what logic you think I'm putting forward here?

Cuddlesworth · 29-11-2021 3:02pm

26% of Irish Adults have a underlying condition as of a 2019 survey.

Furze99 · 29-11-2021 3:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239607#Comment_118239607

Sanctions? Dunno - first maybe mobile vaccination centres that target them actively. And if they don't avail - well then perhaps some consequences.

pimpmyhat · 29-11-2021 3:30pm

I'm getting tired hearing people saying they have done their bit!!

The reality is the vast majority of people only got vaccinated so they could travel go to pubs etc.

It wasnt on any moral ground.

Lumen · 29-11-2021 3:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240020#Comment_118240020

What sort of consequences?

Danno · 29-11-2021 3:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240114#Comment_118240114

Probably a good amount of truth in that.

VillageIdiot71 · 29-11-2021 4:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118238221#Comment_118238221

There's a lot of questions that could be answered if flat weekly figures were produced. For some reason, there's only detailed figures for September/October available - which, absolutely, point to the picture being more complex than people would like it to be. Blindly lashing out at "anti-vaxxers" is emotionally satisfying. Digesting that non-Irish born people comprise nearly 30% of ICU admissions, with 90% of them being unvaccinated, is somewhat harder to turn into a catchy chant.

But, yes, there's something more to be understood about the event of someone turning up in ICU.

Peregrinus · 30-11-2021 12:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118238576#Comment_118238576

An individual getting vaccinated protects others from Covid by reducing their own chance of getting Covid themselves. If you don't have it, you can't pass it on. This is how herd immunity works.

Peregrinus · 30-11-2021 12:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239135#Comment_118239135

So you don't believe in herd immunity, then?

Lumen · 30-11-2021 7:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118243032#Comment_118243032

Sept and Oct stats are in the CSO report posted at the bottom of the first page of this thread.

Akrasia · 30-11-2021 2:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118242844#Comment_118242844

here's a useful graphic that shows even if vaccinated people are just as infectious as unvaccinated people, the reduction in severe illness still has dramatic effects on the number of people who end up in hospital clogging up our health services

Donald Trump · 30-11-2021 3:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118243032#Comment_118243032

When you say that the vaccine doesn't do anything to stem the spread, how do you square that with the fact that, high and all as the numbers are now, they aren't up to where there were at their peak at the start of the year?

Back then we had:

Much more restrictions compared to now

A less dangerous variant compared to now (delta has a much higher R number)

and hardly anyone vaccinated

VillageIdiot71 · 30-11-2021 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118244924#Comment_118244924

That gives an inaccurate view, as age (and some other things) is such a huge factor in determining who needs hospitalisation.

The whole gap in the discussion could be closed by just including the age factor, and showing what that means.

A graph structured like yours for the over 60 age group would be meaningful. Lumping everyone in, it isn't.

Lumen · 30-11-2021 3:41pm

@VillageIdiot71 wrote

A graph structured like yours for the over 60 age group would be meaningful. Lumping everyone in, it isn't.

Why are you particularly focused on the over 60s?

patnor1011 · 30-11-2021 4:13pm

Interesting debate. People seeing red, screaming murder and calling for sanctions against 6% of compatriots who didn't get jab for whatever reason. Who knows how many of them for medical reasons. All this while director general of WHO is stating that no vaccine should go to any country with over 40% of population vaccinated due to what they call vaccine apartheid where rich countries hoard vaccines and poor countries cant get them. Well, since they cant pay for them anyway "let it rip" main thing is we are OK.

astrofool · 30-11-2021 4:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245846#Comment_118245846

Effectively 0% for medical reasons (it's in the rounding error area).

We've just shipped half a million J&J vaccines to Nigeria and our excess stock is going to COVAX via the European supply. Logistics is a huge issue in Africa and COVID vaccines are not top of the list for aid in a lot of the countries.

But with this, I presume you now agree with vaccination but want equitable supply? Or is it another tangent for you?

VillageIdiot71 · 30-11-2021 4:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245595#Comment_118245595

? Really?

"People aged 65 and over accounted for 50% of all those hospitalised through the whole period of the pandemic"

"There were 25 deaths among confirmed COVID-19 cases in the week ending 12 November and of those, 17 deaths (68%) were in people aged 65 and over. Most deaths in this pandemic have been in older age groups."

Is this news?

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries36/

Lumen · 30-11-2021 6:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245891#Comment_118245891

This is a thread on ICUs, and many deaths never go near ICU. If you look at the age breakdown from that link you posted, the three largest groups in the Sept-Oct ICU admissions stats are:

25-44: 19%

45-64: 34%

65-79: 39%

This is not an over-60s issue.

VillageIdiot71 · 30-11-2021 7:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246564#Comment_118246564

Absolutely. It's obviously an over 50s issue, instead.

Can I suggest you might also consider those proportions in the light of the relative proportion of national population? Something like 14% of the population is aged over 65.

TalleyRand83 · 01-12-2021 1:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245227#Comment_118245227

Compare apples with apples, let’s see start of New year, but by the same token how did we have very low cases during the summer with no vaccine?

Donald Trump · 01-12-2021 1:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118248942#Comment_118248942

We had low cases during the Summer after a cumulative effort of observing social distancing, coupled with better weather meaning more outdoor activity. If you will recall, less things were also opened up. It is not apples and oranges to look at January 2021 vs 29th Nov 2021. Not that far off in terms of time of year to compare. You cannot try to argue that we are as restricted now as we were during January. It is simply not the case by any stretch of the imagination. Yet our case numbers are still not as high as they were.

TalleyRand83 · 01-12-2021 1:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249017#Comment_118249017

But wasn’t it all us bold people letting loose over Xmas that causes the hysteria? That’s the argument I saw here and in many media outlets……

Danno · 01-12-2021 2:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245227#Comment_118245227

This again...

Most folk who are vaccinated are unlikely to go forward for testing. Whatever happened to the asymptomatic super-spreader? Here's a hint: They haven't gone away you know!

NPHET have admitted as much that they are optimistically catching 4/10 cases through testing. And as we all know how NPHET do numbers, it is probably safe to say they're getting about 1/10.

You've had many large urban testing centres unable to intake people for testing for a while now... and Covid likes large urban areas to spread.

It wouldn't be far off the mark to say that once a few weeks have passed (we reached ~full~ vaccination in September) vaccines are less effective in hindering spread.

The above is a perfect sh!tstorm and now throw Omnicon into the mix! Fun times ahead, but at least we're hurtling towards herd immunity with the vaccines holding back a tsunami of hospitalisations, for now.

The virus will no doubt win this out.

Donald Trump · 01-12-2021 3:37am

Donald Trump · 01-12-2021 3:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249025#Comment_118249025

Yes. What in my post contradicts that or says otherwise? There was some socialising over Christmas. Hardly to the same extent as the mixing of people over the past few weeks. If ya came out from under your bed you'd have realised that.

patnor1011 · 01-12-2021 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245888#Comment_118245888

Well, drop in the ocean but it seems that nature will sort it out itself anyway. Looks like some countries are close to our level of people with antibodies even without any meaningful vaccination program. Lets hope omicron will push it further as for now it seems it is just that. High transmission and low danger.

What tangent do you mean? Also to say "I presume you now agree with vaccination" is strange as I said it multiple times, anyone who think they need vaccine should go ahead and get it. And if someone do not want it then it is their choice and none of my concern. I am not interested to know why anyone want or do not want it since majority of the people can assess potential risk vs benefit and decide what is the best for them.

Thats me · 03-12-2021 10:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239838#Comment_118239838

At least alcoholics and smokers are being charged for their habits, this charge is included into price of beverages and tobacco.

PureIsle · 03-12-2021 12:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261446#Comment_118261446

You think unvaccinated do not pay the taxes necessary to support our health service?

Thats me · 03-12-2021 6:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118262164#Comment_118262164

I've just pointed an error.

In relation to financing health services from taxes - these taxes calculated to support minimal level of service and do not even cover all needs in normal HS operation mode, not to tell about current emergency situation. If you want my opinion, i would make any service for COVID patients paid in full from their pocket. Sure, after that we will see much less antivaxers and people would self-isolate much better than they typically do.

PureIsle · 03-12-2021 7:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264413#Comment_118264413

Will you apply the same logic to adverse events from the vax?

It is not a necessary element to live like air and water and food, and it is a choice that the jabbed took - a large percent to prevent social exclusion - so you want to hold everyone financially responsible for any health issues because of their choices?

or is this just in one situation?

In any case it is a despicable reaction to other peoples' choice not agreeing with yours regardless their reasons.

bloopy · 03-12-2021 9:18pm

This question just got a whole lot harder to track.

The HSPC has discontinued the vaccinated/unvaccinated icu and death reports that people have been using to track weekly admissions and deaths for the last three months.

It has been replaced with a new type report that makes it a lot more difficult to figure out.

I will also note that the CSO has not updated their report that breaks down cases by vaccinated and unvaccinated. It should have been released this morning at 11am judging by how they've been doing it for the last year or so.

Will have to keep an eye on it, maybe they are just a bit late with it.

Thats me · 04-12-2021 12:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264906#Comment_118264906

>Will you apply the same logic to adverse events from the vax?

No, it is in interests of community to have members vaccinated.

>you want to hold everyone financially responsible for any health issues because of their choices?

Cases of pandemics like this makes whole society vulnerable which requires higher degree of responsibility than average person could afford with no some kind of enforcement. Even doctors themselves, who are telling us we should isolate as much as possible, do not go to office with no real need - what you think they do? They are flying around the world just to have a meeting which could be done on-line, sharing omicron there and bringing it to their countries. If you cannot believe, here is a proof: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/01/israeli-doctor-believes-he-caught-omicron-variant-of-covid-in-london

>or is this just in one situation?

Currently in this one situation. But generally speaking tax paid HS does not work anyway. For the tax money they have grown enormously large bureaucratic structure which has the only purpose - prevent people from accessing their doctors. Just because doctor's salary is too big to let them work. Per each doctor they have dozens of employees who are busy with anything except treating patients, so probably a bit of healthy capitalism would help this system to improve when people will start voiting by their money for more adequate service. But this is future, now we need to stop C19 and this measure aiming only this at the moment.

>In any case it is a despicable reaction to other peoples' choice not agreeing with yours regardless their reasons.

It is not reaction to anybody's choice.

Lumen · 04-12-2021 6:38am

Per each doctor they have dozens of employees who are busy with anything except treating patients

This is not true. You can read the latest workforce breakdown here:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/staff/resources/our-workforce/workforce-reporting/health-service-personnel-census-oct-2021.pdf

so probably a bit of healthy capitalism would help this system to improve

Probably not. The US has more health service bureaucracy than we do.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-costs-administration-idUSKBN1Z5261

In my own experience of public and private health services the Ireland, private is not less bureaucratic. When I attended a clinic in the Beacon there was a row of reception staff, each apparently dealing with the needs of one private consultant. Those needs included gouging me for additional fees not met by my extraordinarily expensive private health insurance.

Thats me · 04-12-2021 11:19am

This is not true. You can read the latest workforce breakdown here:

Hmm... you're right, ratio is significantly lower:

Consultants 3583
Management & Administrative 21322
Health & Social Care Professionals 18723 (also conistiting of managers and clerical)

( 18723 + 21322 ) / 3583 = 11.18

private is not less bureaucratic. When I attended a clinic in the Beacon

Sorry for rhetorical question, what managed you to attend that clinic instead of using tax pre-paid services? Only existence of such clinics on its own is sign that something wrong with the system paid from the tax, isn't it?

sydthebeat · 04-12-2021 11:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118267695#Comment_118267695

Theres loads wrong with the public heath system... But the existence of a private health system is not an indication of this.

We don't have a pure public only health system in Ireland. We have a public / private mix where those who can afford to pay for private health care do, and reap the benefits of not being a drain on the public funded system.

Mr. teddywinkles · 04-12-2021 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118242844#Comment_118242844

If that be the case why is it spreading so fast with 93% of populace vaccinated.

marilynrr · 06-12-2021 1:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118245227#Comment_118245227

We don't know what the real numbers are.

It's almost impossible for many people to get a test at the moment. The slots are getting booked up instantly! There's an outbreak in my childs school at the moment and the people who have managed to get tests are the ones refreshing the page constantly over a few days in the hope something will come up.

There was a thread on here a few days back where people can't get GP appointments because the GP's phones are getting clogged up with people trying to get covid tests!

I bet the real numbers are absolutely sky high!

Mr shmar · 06-12-2021 6:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275563#Comment_118275563

I’m not going to say that you are correct or incorrect about “knowing what the real numbers are”, but if it is the case that they are not-known, then the entire justification that the government has used for most of it’s covid based legislation over the past 12+ months would surely be put into question, if not completely crippled.

They point to “the numbers” as a basis for a lot of things that have been done or else promote a certain way for something to be done.

paul71 · 14-12-2021 4:50pm

Since the vaccine is not important to the unvaccinated they must therefore believe that the consequences are unimportant. I am all for free will, let them go unvaccinated, but let them then go without a ICU bed which is required for a road traffic incident, heart attack or other medical emergency.

We will of course hear the piteous cries of discrimination, but we do after all deny liver transplants to unrepentant alcoholics, where is the difference here?

Looking for stats on % of unvaccinated people in ICU with underlying conditions

Answers