Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

The opposition is SF. They've never called for a zero covid policy.

Because they're making it up as they go along, introducing meaningless restrictions that will have no effect on spread. All so when they stand in front of the microphones they can say they haven't closed various sectors and everything is open as they said it would be.

Philip Nolan on Newstalk doubling down that they were right not to reopen fully during the summer. That's 2 years in a row they've done that. What's the bet it'll happen again next year?

They seem to be under the impression they are some form of new celebrity. Public health figures are the new rock stars in their own minds.

Data from the HSE about the last 2 weeks has hospitalisations now at about 1.1%(11 cases per 1,000). If NPHET are going to use data it should use post-vaccination data and not add in the huge numbers from the first part of the year.

How in the **** does Nolan get away with stating this without any challenge. His last projections weren't worth wiping your ass with and here he is again with his "optimistic" scenario of 200000.

1) Approx 511k cases total since March 2020 here - Nolans projections have nearly half of that entire 18 month span occurring in December.

2) At no stage and at no point in the last 18 months have we approached anywhere near 450 ICU. Nowhere.

Why is he not being dragged out in front of the cameras with this bullshit and grilled to explain every single assumption and where it came from, what data is it based on and has the data been even verified by anybody else outside of NPHET. It cannot be allowed to continue that this poor data and completely inaccurate projections from this absolute spoofer be used to drive public health measures without a peer review of some sort.

The Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said the possibility in an “optimistic scenario” of 200,000 cases of the virus in December is “not inevitable”. 

Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Nolan said those models are based on what might happen if nothing changes over the coming weeks in terms of people’s level of social contact and the care taken to prevent transmission. 

He said if nothing else changes the country is on “a trajectory towards very large case numbers and very large numbers of people in hospital coinciding with Christmas”. 

Nolan said a risk that 450 people might need intensive care by Christmas is “possible”, but added that “we’re trying now to do everything we can to avert that scenario”.

I didn't avoid it , it was introduced in the late 1980s . I'd guess most over 35 didn't get in unless retrospectively.

sadly i'm over 35 now. I had all the vaccines that were about at the time.

it would be weird to report people to tusla for medical choices but i guess if covid taught me one thing is that people like reporting others.

yet you think those that did read it and once made aware of the risks and decided "no thanks "

so one might as well not read it in that case.

These models should never be used as a basis for forming government policy. Almost every variable they input into it is an unknown and unknowable number. They are using a best guess approach for these variables, nonetheless they are total unreliable outside of a purely academic exercise.

Having experience in putting together modelling programs for other endeavors I can sympathize with the team carry carrying out the work. However, they are trying to model something we have very little understanding of with values that are guesstimates. It's an impossible task to do with any degree of accuracy.

The problem lies with the weak government ministers at the moment who are only too happy to hide behind them when in reality that isn't what they are designed to do. Nolan is for want of a better phrase simple "pulling numbers out of arse" when he quotes them. Sure, one of the models "may" be in the ballpark but trying to determine which one that is would be impossible.

We have a government basing official policy on something that is just a little bit better than a random number generator. That's completely nuts IMO.

This is lockdown talk if I ever seen it. Buckle up folks.

I see many nightclubs in our country are now shifting to "late afternoon clubs" fair play to them for trying to make lemonade from lemons, hopefully the govt can realise they are wrong to restrict hospitality to midnight closing!

news for you, i've sons who are young lads any any reasonable measures.

some of us have a perspectives beyond their own hole.

edit ,

we have some countries suspending covid vaccines due to hearts issues, why? if it's so clear cut. the truth is the data is evolving and the full extent of the vaccines side effects won't be known nor collated for some time to come especially if the side effects werent identified initially as vaccine related.

We were sold a pup on the vaccine , sure it helps but it doesn't work as we were told - despite the reassurances that this was the greatest effort ever in history , nothing like this can be rushed . despite the resources thrown at it.

you and many of the pro-lockdown/ pro vaccine people (esp in the media and Dail) debate this as if we should follow a textbook of instructions and that everybody's needs/wants and risk/reward thresholds are the same.

news for you , they aren't.