Fine Gael Demographic

TBH, you could replace 'FG' in that post with 'FF' and it would make the same sense.

I'd respectfully disagree. What it comes down to there is the difference between FF & FG. I know it's popular to say that there is no actual difference but there was always a difference going back decades. We don't have a titled upper class in the same sense that they do in the UK. The nearest thing we had is the group that contained the big farmers and landowners, the barristers and judges, the consultants, the bank managers and the higher ranks fo the civil service. That group was the traditional heartland of FG. Meanwhile FF drew their support from the working class, the builders, the publicans, small farmers, bookmakers and other small business owners.

Now obviously those aren't strict classifications and since the Celtic Tiger and the crash it's all been changed massively. At the same time SF have emerge and grown rapidly. The thing is SF haven't been taking support from FG. They have mostly been taking it from FF, especially with the working class vote. The fact that they have been drawing support from the same groupings makes it much easier for them to work together. The same does not go for SF and FG.

as explained, rates may remain low for the foreseeable, as its potentially too dangerous to raise them, as explained..... public debt is far different in many ways than private debt, it is common for public debts to be rolled over indefinitely, sometimes for many decades, even centuries in some cases, until fully serviced, this isnt necessarily true for private debts, it is much harder to do the same with private debts, i.e. indefinite rollovers etc.

what do you mean by normal, what is normal? again, at the moment, the ecb is purchasing government bonds, so effectively the ecb is indirectly lending to us, as it is illegal to lend directly.

yes, we must embrace the so called 'magical money trees' of the public sector, i.e. the states ability to create money, via bond markets, as explained, as we have become over reliant on the private sector magic money trees, i.e. credit markets, which has become too unstable and too dangerous, as a primarily credit fueled economy tends to lead to a credit fueled asset boom such as a credit fueled building boom, graph, once again supplied!

oh and this isnt my grand plan, this comes from respected economic and political commentators, some of which realised the 08 crash was in the post prior to it, largely due to these issues

FG had around 35-37%(plus or minus 3-4% at various times) of the share of the vote through the period when they represented the big farmers/judicial class etc.

I don't think they have a monopoly there anymore and I could see them fall to 15% or even lower if things went against them.

More and more that lost vote will only be given back on an election to election basis.

Doesn't particularly matter where the votes go, the salient fact is they are 'going'.

One of the significant changes I think is votes like mine, which do not belong to anyone, 'fail to deliver at least some of your core promises, lose the vote'. I can only see that attitude growing as the generations change.

Enda failing to deliver on 2011 promises did more damage to FG than SF TBH. That was another watershed in Irish politics and the body politic has not reverted to vote owning or strict party allegiance.

SF are 'borrowing' votes too on top of their core. They'll have to deliver to hold on to them.

stop paying interest on what, how why, why would we stop paying interest, what do you mean?

theres many, do you really want me to do that?

you do realise we ve been running a deficit throughout covid, and yes we are experiencing inflation, but that is primarily linked to serious supply side issues?

its important to understand why countries such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela experienced their inflationary issues, most of their debts were in foreign currencies, i.e. dollars, and both countries were in fact experiencing serious supplied side issues. when mugabe took power in Zimbabwe, he ordered the white farmers off their land, giving it to black citizens, these in turn were unable to keep up with food demands, forcing mugabe to trade with foreign countries, in foreign currencies, in order to meet their food demands....

if inflation truly becomes a problem, governments can simply increase taxes, pull the money back in, i.e. pulling the money out of circulation, we actually do this anyway, when governments run a surplus

most countries have been experiencing little or no inflation, no matter what central banks done in regards rates, for many years now, one reason being, most of us have moved towards primarily credit run economies, i would argue all of our inflation has gone primarily towards asset markets, some may in fact be in a hyper inflationary situation, debatable of course. all this has resulted in many of us, including ireland, to experience low wage inflation but high asset price inflation, these have now decoupled, causing our current property problems...

thank you, but i will strongly disagree, and will stick to my sources, who many are in fact highly respected in their field, many are in fact professors, and again, some were in fact screaming from their respected roof tops, prior to 08, about these matters. also, mainstream economics is called neoclassical economics, this is the primarily field of economic thought, of which our governments are thought and advised, its also important to note, this school of thought has a refusal to accept our reality in manner critical ways, simply realities such as money creation in our financial institutions, i.e. banks, via credit creation, this is still the case. these refusals of understanding are now at a disturbing level, as you can see our economy is now perfectly primed for another credit fueled building boom, we reap what we sow, or more truthfully, your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews do!

thanks again

FG would be very ill advised to go into coalition with SF. Why work to protect them from the many difficult and unpopular compromises that government brings? SF can promise what they like at the moment but that happy state ends the day they take power. Anyway, a spell in opposition would do FG no harm - they could dump their leader for a start. Meanwhile, SF and whoever could run a minority government, if necessary with abstentions from the other larger parties on confidence motions to keep the wilder independents from obstructing the business of the Dáil.

i have a long list, i can list them if you like?

please be as specific as you can be in regards what you d like to know? funnily enough, i could say the same about yourself, for example, if we do indeed default to our normal approach to running our economy, which we more than likely will do i.e. a balanced budget, whats the chances of defaulting to a primarily credit run one?

thank you

Yes, I asked for the list twice already.

Also the specific questions are in post #281

As to your question: "if we do indeed default to our normal approach to running our economy...a balanced budget, whats the chances of defaulting to a primarily credit run one?

Governments don't tend to ever pay off their debt, typically allowing it to wax and wane as needed. If by 'a primarily credit run one' you mean your proposal, then I don't see that ever happening for the reasons I have already outlined.

Is it anymore unusual than other party's dropping longstanding stances? Leo and FG dropping objections to SSM and adoption springs to mind. To listen to FG you'd think they came up with the idea.

Not seeing much dissention or defection over this in SF. They had already changed from wanting rid altogether to reforming it.

Those are red lines for me but there's a huge crowd of people who object to all 3. They will say that their opposition is on principle and then give you one of the following reasons to back that up:

• water: "It's a natural resource and we already pay for cleaning and transporting it through general taxation"
• property: "People's family homes shouldn't be taxed."
• carbon: since this is the latest one there doesn't seem to be a cohesive opposing message to this one yet but take your pick from
  • "This is a tax on the poor",
  • "Why don't you make {insert other sector or country} pay for it instead since they create more emissions",
  • "This is just the latest bad science by the Greens - remember what they said about diesel cars!!"

There's always going to be a willing voter base for a party that tells you that you don't in fact need to pay more tax. If they can do that while also telling you that you can do so without feeling guilty about it then all the better.

Not sure that's ever a constructive line for a government to take; when you're explaining you're losing and all that. Maybe better to go with "Stick with us and we'll get the job done in the long run; don't trust SF's empty promises."

I'm part of that demographic.

I genuinely believe there is now a sizable demographic who will not do the power swap twostep and who will vote outside it.

For me, and again, I think a lot of others, Enda's cynicism in buying votes in 2011 and 16 is coming back to haunt FG, not helped by their coalescing with FF, which has the potential to destroy them altogether if Martin cannot arrest the fall.