Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

charlie14 · 30-10-2021 06:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094078#Comment_118094078

Fair enough but there would have been no need for an apology had you checked before accusing me of bad faith posting.

I`ll take a look when I have the time, but with you saying both studies came to the same conclusion I don`t know what I am even supposed to be looking for.

Edit. On reading back I see astrofool has saved me the trouble of going through that study by posting the conclusions they came to.

floorpie · 30-10-2021 06:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095030#Comment_118095030

Fair enough but there would have been no need for an apology had you checked before accusing me of bad faith posting.

That's why I apologised. I can't go back and check posts easily on this new boards.ie

I`ll take a look when I have the time, but with you saying both studies came to the same conclusion I don`t know what I am even supposed to be looking for.

Well don't look if you're not interested. A few interesting differences is that in the UK study they PCR tested daily the people who were exposed to the virus. So the UK is looking at sars-cov-2 infection essentially, not COVID-19. The Netherlands study excludes people that report no symptoms after 2 PCRs.

Interestingly they both had the same finding to a different scale, i.e. that all configurations of infection have the same risk, except unvaccinated to unvaccinated:

In UK study, secondary attack rate, after the initial infection (to my reading) was:

Unvaccinated -> unvaccinated: 38%

Unvaccinated -> vaccinated: 25%

Vaccinated -> vaccinated: 25%

Vaccinated -> unvaccinated: 23%

In the Netherlands study, secondary attack rate, after the initial infection, was:

Unvaccinated -> unvaccinated: 22%

Unvaccinated -> vaccinated: 13%

Vaccinated -> vaccinated: 11%

Vaccinated -> unvaccinated: 12%

The point I made to you earlier was that 38% applies only for unvaccinated -> unvaccinated within the household. Secondly, the Netherlands paper does a better job disambiguating this, the UK paper is unclear.

floorpie · 30-10-2021 06:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095030#Comment_118095030

Edit. On reading back I see astrofool has saved me the trouble of going through that study by posting the conclusions they came to.

Ok 😂 Weird

30-10-2021 06:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093892#Comment_118093892

Your last point is key. The delta variant has R0 of between 6 and 8. Current reproduction rate is 1.2. During first lockdown we got the reproduction rate from 2.5 to 0.6. So suppression of spread now is as much if not more than during the first lockdown. It’s not all down to masks and Hand sanitiser

charlie14 · 30-10-2021 07:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095109#Comment_118095109

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095125#Comment_118095125

I really do not have the time nor inclination to go chasing you around on semantics.

Simple question. Has the household setting study shown or not that at 38% unvaccinated infections were 50% higher than for those vaccinated at 25% ?

floorpie · 30-10-2021 08:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095465#Comment_118095465

Simple answer: no. I did you the favour of describing the findings and linked you to the paper, and another similar paper also published this week.

It's not semantics, I dont care if you prefer to not understand the findings, but your interpretation is wrong. I'm not sure why you're being so hostile in your responses.

PTH2009 · 30-10-2021 10:42PM

Not sure if 100% true but for the upcoming hotel dinner dances for the Xmas season will include no dancing

Only in Ireland

Wolf359f · 30-10-2021 11:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095567#Comment_118095567

Dumb it down for us:

1000 vaccinated people infect how many unvacinated people within a household setting?

1000 vaccinated people infect how many vaccinated people within a household setting?

1000 unvacinated people infect how many unvacinated people within a household setting?

1000 unvacinated people infect how many vaccinated people within a household setting?

Penfailed · 31-10-2021 01:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096136#Comment_118096136

Not sure if 100% true but for the upcoming hotel dinner dances for the Christmas season will include dancing! Woohoo!

Only in Ireland apparently.

31-10-2021 02:05AM

I miss the lad who bought lots of turtle-necks so he didn't have to wear masks. He was a good fun poster.

JRant · 31-10-2021 08:03AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096536#Comment_118096536

He went back into his shell...

brickster69 · 31-10-2021 10:13AM

Can imagine quite a few unvaccinated heading up North for nights out from today. One step over an invisible line and they can go to freedom from tyranny.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59081526

Red Silurian · 31-10-2021 10:23AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096884#Comment_118096884

Yes because the inconvenience of going to your pharmacy to get jabbed for free far outweighs the inconvenience of booking a night in a hotel up north and traveling etc etc

is_that_so · 31-10-2021 10:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096913#Comment_118096913

Not everyone thinks like you. They have their own reasons and this type of commentary will not persuade them otherwise.

Penfailed · 31-10-2021 11:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096884#Comment_118096884

Tyranny?! 😆

Micky 32 · 31-10-2021 11:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096884#Comment_118096884

There is some chatter going on about covid passes in the north. Michelle O’ Neill amongst others seem to be in favour of them. I have a feeling they might be introduced at some stage. Of course i could be wrong.

bokale · 31-10-2021 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096930#Comment_118096930

I think the public and hospitality industry have moved on now anyway from trying to persuade them. Life is too short.

brickster69 · 31-10-2021 11:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097025#Comment_118097025

Yes laws passed that restrict the ability for all of society from doing things we all take for granted is tyranical IMO.

charlie14 · 31-10-2021 12:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095567#Comment_118095567

If that is what you believe then I`m not who you should be on too. It`s The Guardian, Bloomberg and Prof. Ajit Laljani as those are the percentage from his study which the other two reported.

You appear to be on a mission to prove that it makes no difference if those who become infected are vaccinated or unvaccinated to the severity of infection. Something that study failed to do but which is the real crux of the problem. We can see for here and for other countries that the unvaccinated make up of those requiring hospitalisation and ICU are disproportionately made up of those unvaccinated.

Prof Laljani`s study did not cover that but he is not unaware of it either. He has stated that should fully vaccinated individuals become infected they remain protected against severe disease and death. He also said the emphasis should be on encouragement to avail of the vaccine as the unvaccinated should not rely on the immunity of the fully vaccinated to protect them.

mollser · 31-10-2021 12:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097025#Comment_118097025

The posters that continue to talk about being oppressed, requiring "papers" and tyranny really need to get a grip, get off the internet and start living life!

bokale · 31-10-2021 12:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097404#Comment_118097404

Need to get over their fear of needles.

31-10-2021 12:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097404#Comment_118097404

Many can't live life because of the vaccine passport. The people who talk about inclusivity and equality are also the people excluding and making people unequal.

floorpie · 31-10-2021 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097356#Comment_118097356

If that is what you believe then I`m not who you should be on too. It`s The Guardian, Bloomberg and Prof. Ajit Laljani as those are the percentage from his study which the other two reported.

I don't "believe" it, that's the way it is. If you choose to believe articles and posts by non-scientists then that's up to you. I'm posting it for the benefit of everyone here, not just you.

Here are three lines all from the same paper, how all of these can be true at the same time, given the interpretation in your sources:

The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals.

The above line is in the abstract, and it's where everybody stops reading

SAR (Secondary attack rate) was not significantly higher in unvaccinated (38%, 95% CI 24–53) than fully vaccinated (25%, 18–33) household contacts (table 1)

"Not significantly higher" in this case doesn't mean "not greatly higher", it means there's no statistical evidence that SAR is higher. Even if the number happens to be bigger in this sample, there is no evidence that it's bigger in the population.

The SAR in household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was 25% (95% CI 15–35; 17 of 69), which is similar to the SAR in household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (23% [15–31]; 23 of 100; table 2)

This last line says that secondary attack rate is higher for vaccinated people (25%) vs unvaccinated people (23%)

How does the same paper say 1) SAR is higher for unvaccinated people, and 2) SAR is lower for unvaccinated people?

if you choose to believe your sources, that's up to you, but none of these sources have read the work even superficially.

astrofool · 31-10-2021 01:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097434#Comment_118097434

Everyone has the opportunity to get vaccinated, there is no inequality there.

There are people who want to but can't get vaccinated they are not being included due to the threat to their health, that's who you should really be worried about (and get yourself vaccinated to protect them otherwise you're being a hypocrite in pretending to care about the inequality of others).

astrofool · 31-10-2021 01:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097524#Comment_118097524

Might as well put in the full text, I've bolded the significant line:

All 53 PCR-positive contacts were exposed in household settings and the SAR for all delta variant-exposed household contacts was 26% (95% CI 20–32). SAR was not significantly higher in unvaccinated (38%, 95% CI 24–53) than fully vaccinated (25%, 18–33) household contacts (table 1). We estimated vaccine effectiveness at preventing infection (regardless of symptoms) with delta in the household setting to be 34% (bootstrap 95% CI –15 to 60). Sensitivity analyses using a 14 day threshold for time since second vaccination to study recruitment to denote fully vaccinated did not materially affect our estimates of vaccine effectiveness or SAR (data not shown). Although precision is restricted by the small sample size, this estimate is broadly consistent with vaccine effectiveness estimates for delta variant infection based on larger datasets.9, 16, 17

Their findings (feel free to add the bits around but I'm trying to include all relevant text):

our findings suggest that vaccination alone is not sufficient to prevent all transmission of the delta variant in the household setting, where exposure is close and prolonged. Increasing population immunity via booster programmes and vaccination of teenagers will help to increase the currently limited effect of vaccination on transmission, but our analysis suggests that direct protection of individuals at risk of severe outcomes, via vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions, will remain central to containing the burden of disease caused by the delta variant.

Which is pretty much where Ireland is, getting vaccinations to everyone including teenagers, getting the younger groups vaccinated, getting boosters out and continuing other measures to try and limit transmission.

It's almost as if NPHET is reading these papers and taking action accordingly (as much as I'd be on the side that we should have lifted most restrictions already).

Sure, I can read that paper and squint and say that vaccines are ineffective at reducing transmission, but it's a big stretch, same as if I try and point at real world data and say that vaccines are 100% effective, they're not, but they're by far the most effective weapon (and cheapest) we have against the virus right now beyond full lockdown of everyone for weeks and months on end.

31-10-2021 01:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097549#Comment_118097549

But a lot of people don't want to get vaccinated. It's supposed to be voluntary, but people are being coerced into taking it.

floorpie · 31-10-2021 02:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097610#Comment_118097610

Might as well put in the full text

Yeah please do

The part you bold about vaccines being 34% effective (which is already far lower than people would assume) must be caveated that this is based on figures that are not statistically significant according to the authors. So it might be 34% effective, or it might be 0%, or it might be -34%, it's impossible to say here. The CI goes from –15% to 60%, but again, based on non statistically significant findings.

but they're by far the most effective weapon (and cheapest) we have against the virus right now beyond full lockdown of everyone for weeks and months on end.

I wish this were the case but based on the above I still believe that the only effective measure for this winter will be lockdowns, essentially. Vaccination will continue to be an effective means of reducing danger for at-risk people however.

astrofool · 31-10-2021 02:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097652#Comment_118097652

You're bleating on about inequality, you have the opportunity to get a vaccine, if you don't that is your own choice to live with the restrictions that your choice entails.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097695#Comment_118097695

Well, we do, but there's a COVID vaccines safety thread over on the CT forum which you can run away from because you can't back this up with any evidence or data.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097696#Comment_118097696

There is a very high chance that the difference is 34% and a vanishingly low chance that the difference is -34% and a low chance that it's 0%, as I said, if you squint at the data you can start making those claims, but they don't stack up for long and most scientists in the field would disagree with that reading of the data and you are certainly free to comment on it and see if the authors will change their findings.

However, if we're talking about making plans for SARS-COV2 control, then vaccines and treatments and restrictions are all in the mix, vaccines have been and remain our best weapon, they will continue to be deployed as such, their cost to benefit ratio far outweighs the other options. Maybe you'll be right about lockdowns, I don't see any governments wanting to reverse the restrictions so I think it'll be a holding pattern till January, but it's all dependent on hospitalisation and ICU numbers.

charlie14 · 31-10-2021 02:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097524#Comment_118097524

So what are you suggesting now, that Professor Ajit Lalvani hasn`t read a study that he is credited as the author off ?

Lets be honest here. You are attempting to show that it is irrelevant where infections are concerned if a person is vaccinated or not, while attempting to avoid that large elephant in the room, the severity of the infection and the numbers that will require hospitalisation and ICU treatment.

The number of infections is not the problem, it`s the numbers that will require treatment, and we see here and elsewhere that the numbers of those unvaccinated needing treatment are greatly disproportionate to their percentage of the population when compared to those vaccinated.

While Prof Lalvani`s study did not address, which in essence is the real problem the pressure on health services, when it comes to those vaccinated and those not he did point out that should fully vaccinated individuals become infected they remain protected against severe illness and death. He also encouraged the uptake of the vaccines and that the unvaccinated could not be relying on the immunity of the fully vaccinated for protection.

You can read that anyway you wish. Even ignore it, but I do not see any evidence that the author of a study you are attempting to use to show that vaccines are ineffective agrees with you. The polar opposite in fact.

31-10-2021 02:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118097751#Comment_118097751

You're missing the point, or else choosing to miss it. They are not voluntary if being allowed to half take part in society depends on your being vaccinated. And it's absolute hypocritical to claim to be for inclusivity and equality while excluding people and making them unequal.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings